Kusman Sadik
Dept. Statistika IPB, 2015
250
200
150
Zt
100
50
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Bulan
s = periode musim.
Curah hujan di Indonesia s = ......?
Parameter AR musiman :
Parameter MA musiman :
Penulisan : AR(P)s, MA(Q)s, ARMA(P, Q)s
Contoh:
MA Reguler : MA(1) Yt = et - θet-1
1
Dr. Kusman Sadik
Dept. Statistika IPB, 2015
1 2 ; k 12
k
0 ; k selainnya
Jadi ACF untuk MA(1)12 nilainya berbeda dengan nol hanya
untuk lag ke-12, selainnya 0.
Bagaimana ACF untuk MA(2)12 dan MA(2)4 ?
2
Dr. Kusman Sadik
Dept. Statistika IPB, 2015
MA(q) Yt = q(B)et
AR(p) p(B)Yt = et
3
Dr. Kusman Sadik
Dept. Statistika IPB, 2015
Multiplikatif ARMA
ARMA(p, q)(P, Q)s p(B)P(Bs)Yt = q(B)Q(Bs)et
Misal :
ARMA(0, 1)(0, 1)12 0(B)0(B12)Yt = 1(B)1(B12)et
Yt = (1 - B)(1 - B12)et
= (1 - B - B12 + B13)et
= et - et-1 - et-12 + et-13
0 = (1 + 2)(1 + 2)e2
1 ; 11 13 ; 12
1 2 (1 )(1 )
2 2
1 2
Nilai ACF () selainnya adalah nol.
4
Dr. Kusman Sadik
Dept. Statistika IPB, 2015
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Sample of ACF
ARIMA Reguler
d=1 1Yt = (1 – B)Yt = Yt – Yt-1
d=2 2Yt = (1 – B)2Yt = Yt – 2Yt-1 + Yt-2
ARIMA Musiman
D=1, s=12 sD = (1 – Bs)D
112 Z t = (1 – B12)1Yt = Yt – Yt-12
12
2
Z t = (1 – B12)2Yt = Yt – 2Yt-12 + Yt-24
Model Lengkap
ARIMA(p, d, q)(P, D, Q)s
p(B)P(Bs)dsD Yt = q(B)Q(Bs)et
5
Dr. Kusman Sadik
Dept. Statistika IPB, 2015
Latihan :
Jabarkan model ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(1, 1, 0)6
6
Dr. Kusman Sadik
Dept. Statistika IPB, 2015
Seasonal Model
ARIMA model for Yt
--------------------------------------------------
SAS
proc arima data=mobil;
identify var=y(1,1,12) nlag=15;
run;
estimate p=(1) q=(1,2)(12) ;
run;
forecast out=ramalan lead=24 id=t;
run;
Name of Variable = y
Standard Approx
Parameter Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Lag
7
Dr. Kusman Sadik
Dept. Statistika IPB, 2015
y
800
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600
500
400
300
200
date