Mata Kuliah:
Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Produksi
TA 2022-2023 PROGRAM STUDI TEKNIK INDUSTRI
Linear Trend Line
• Dimana:
a = intercept (pada periode 0)
b = slope (kemiringan garis)
x = periode waktu
y = peramalan permintaan pada periode x
x = rata-rata nilai x
y = rata-rata nilai y
Contoh Linear Trend Line
• Persamaannya menjadi:
Postulate General
Class of
Identification
Model
Identify Models to be
No
Tentatively entertained
Estimate Parameters in
Tentatively Entertained
Estimation a
Model
nd Testing
DiagnosticChecking
(Is the model adequate?)
Ft +1 = Ft + ( X t − Ft ) atau Ft +1 = Ft + ( t )
Ft +1 = Ft −1 + ( t −1 ) + ( t )
Ft +1 = Ft − 2 + ( t − 2 ) + ( t −1 ) + ( t ).....dst
Model Box-Jenkins
ARIMA (p,d,q)(P,D,Q)S
• Backward operator = B
BX t = X t −1
B 2 X t = B ( BX t ) = B ( X t −1 ) = X t − 2
First Difference :
X 't = X t − X t −1 = X t − BX t = (1 − B ) X t
Second Difference :
X "t = X 't − X 't −1 = ( X t − X t −1 ) − ( X t −1 − X t − 2 )
X "t = ( X t − 2 X t −1 + X t − 2 ) = (1 − 2 B + B 2 ) X t
ARIMA(0, d ,0) :
(1 − B ) d X t = et
Apakah Ada Aspek atau Proses Auto Regresi ?
X t = '+1 X t −1 + 2 X t −2 + ... + p X t − p + et
atau
(1 − 1 B − 2 B − ... − p B ) X t = '+et
2 p
BX t = X t −1
Y2, an AR(1) series
1.0
ACF-Y2
0.5
0.0
-0.5
0 5 10
1.0
PACF-Y2
0.5
0.0
-0.5
0 5 10
Apakah Ada Aspek atau Proses Moving Average ?
• ACF has a cut-off point, such that the estimated autocorrelations, rk ,are
close to zero for all k > q
1.0
ACF-Y1
0.5
0.0
-0.5
0 5 10
1.0
PACF-Y1
0.5
0.0
-0.5
0 5 10
MA(q) atau ARIMA (0,0,q)
atau
X t = + (1 − 1 B − 2 B − ... − q B )et
2 q
Bet = et −1
• Pola deret data adalah kombinasi Proses
Autoregresi dan Moving Average : Arima
(p,0,q) atau ARMA (p,q).
– The acf and the pacf both exhibiting large
spikes that gradually die out indicates that
both autoregressive and moving averages
processes are present.
ARMA Proces atau ARIMA (1,0,1)
X t = '+1 X t −1 + et − 1et −1
atau
(1 − 1 B ) X t = '+ (1 − 1 B )et
AR(1) MA(1)
atau
X t = (1 + 1 ) X t −1 − 1 X t − 2 + '+ et − 1et −1
Characteristics of ARMA models
ARMA(p,q) Geometric decline from pth lag Declines from gth lag
Apakah Ada Aspek Musiman??
Differensiasi
3. Differensiasi ke-1
Data Stationer
4. Model Estimation
Sudah signifikan
6. Forecasting
Persamaan ARIMA (0,1,1)
(1 − B ) X t = '+(1 − 1 B )et
Kriteria Performa Peramalan
• Rumus MAD
• Dimana:
At = Permintaan Aktual pada periode t
Ft = Peramalan Permintaan (Forecast) pada periode t
n = Jumlah periode peramalan yang terlibat
MSE (Mean Square Error)
• Rumus MSE
• Dimana:
At = Permintaan Aktual pada periode t
Ft = Peramalan Permintaan (Forecast) pada periode t
n = Jumlah periode peramalan yang terlibat
MFE (Mean Forecast Error)
• Dimana:
At = Permintaan Aktual pada periode t
Ft = Peramalan Permintaan (Forecast) pada periode t
n = Jumlah periode peramalan yang terlibat
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)
• Dimana:
At = Permintaan Aktual pada periode t
Ft = Peramalan Permintaan (Forecast) pada periode t
n = Jumlah periode peramalan yang terlibat
Contoh
MAD = 60 / 6 = 10
MSE = 750 / 6 = 125
MAPE = 49,86 / 6 = 8,31%
MFE = -10 / 6 = -1,67