KONSEP DASAR
ARIMA
STASIONER
Kondisi stasioner terdiri atas dua hal, yaitu:
1. Stasioner dalam rata-rata
Jika kondisi stasioner dalam rata-rata tidak terpenuhi
diperlukan proses pembedaan (differencing)
𝑧𝑡 = 1 − 𝐵 𝑑 𝑍𝑡
𝑑 : orde differencing
𝐵 : Backshift operator (operator mundur) yang didefinisikan dengan 𝐵 𝑑 𝑍𝑡 = 𝑍𝑡−𝑑
Nilai λ Transformasi
1
-1,0
𝑍𝑡
1
-0,5
𝑍𝑡
0,0 ln 𝑍𝑡
0,5 𝑍𝑡
1,0 𝑍𝑡
STASIONER
2. Stasioner dalam varians
Ketentuan untuk menstabilkan variansi:
a) Transformasi hanya boleh dilakukan untuk deret data
yang positif
b) Transformasi dilakukan sebelum melakukan differencing
dan pemodelan derete waktu
c) nilai λ dipilih berdasarkan SSE dari deret hasil
transformasi. Nilai SSE terkecil memberikan hasil
variansi paling konstan
𝑛
2
𝑆𝑆𝐸 𝜆 = 𝑍𝑡 𝜆 − 𝜇
𝑡=1
d) Transformasi tidak hanya menstabilkan varians, tetapi
juga dapat menormalkan distribusi
STASIONER
Data stasioner terbagi menjadi dua, yaitu:
1. Stasioner kuat (strickly stasioner)
Nonstationer
THE FIRST DIFFERENCES: ZT = Y2T – Y2T-1
Nonstationer
Differences
Stationer
SAMPLE AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION
(ACF)
Untuk data series Z1, Z2, …, Zn :
ACF UNTUK DATA STASIONER
dies down
1 (exponential)
1 cuts off
0 0
8 Lag k 8 Lag k
no
oscillation
-1 -1
0 0
8 Lag k 8 Lag k
-1 oscillation -1
DYING DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY VERSUS EXTREMELY
SLOWLY
0 Lag k
8
-1
0 Lag k
8
-1
SAMPLE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION
(PACF)
ACF PACF
ACF PACF
+ +
The model
Zt = + at – 1 at-1
Invertibility condition : –1 < 1 < 1
ACF PACF
ACF PACF
SIMULATION EXAMPLE OF ACF AND PACF OF FIRST-
ORDER MOVING AVERAGE MODEL OR MA(1) … [GRAPHICS
ILLUSTRATION]
THEORETICALLY OF ACF AND PACF OF SECOND-
ORDER MOVING AVERAGE MODEL OR MA(2)
The model
Zt = + at – 1 at-1 – 2 at-2
Invertibility condition : 1 + 2 < 1 ; 2 1 < 1 ; |2| < 1
ACF PACF
ACF PACF
THEORETICALLY OF ACF AND PACF OF SECOND-ORDER
MOVING AVERAGE MODEL OR MA(2) … [GRAPHICS ILLUSTRATION]
… (2)
ACF PACF
ACF PACF
SIMULATION EXAMPLE OF ACF AND PACF OF SECOND-ORDER
MOVING AVERAGE MODEL OR MA(2) … [GRAPHICS
ILLUSTRATION]
EXAMPLE: IDENTIFICATION STEP [STATIONARY, ACF AND
PACF]
S , a = Zt Zt 1
T T 2
2
t
t 2 t 2
Zt Z Zt 1 Z
T
ˆ t 2
Zt 1 Z
T 2
t 2
2. METODE LEAST SQUARE
Model MA(1):
Zt at at 1 at Zt at 1
a0 0
a1 z1
a2 z2 a1
a3 z3 a2
. . . . .
aT zT aT 1
Tentukan nilai yang me min imumkan persamaan
T
S* at2
t 1
3. METODE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
Model AR(1)
Z t 1 Z t 1 a t
Z t 1 Z t 1 a t
Z t 1 1 1 Z t 1 a t
Z t 0 1 Z t 1 a t
Dimana: 0 1 1
a t ~ IIND 0, a2
Fungsi kepadatan peluang untuk data pertama:
Z1 0 / 1 1 2
f Z1 : 0 , 1 , a
1
2
Exp
2 a2 / 1 1
2 a / 1 1
2 2
3. METODE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
Model AR(1)
Fungsi kepadatan peluang untuk data kedua:
Z1 0 1 Z1 2
1
f Z 2 : 0 , 1 , a
2
Exp
2 2
a 2 a2
Fungsi likelihood untuk model AR(1) dapat diperoleh
dengan mengalikan seluruh fungsi kepadatan peluang
sbb:
LZ1 , Z 2 ,..., Z T : 0 , 1 , a2 f Z1 : 0 , 1 , a2 .f Z 2 : 0 , 1 , a2 ....f Z T : 0 , 1 , a2
Misalkan :
3. METODE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
Model AR(1)
Misalkan:
2
1 Z / 1
f Z1 : 0 , 1 , a2 Exp 1 2 0 1 A dan
2 a2 / 1 1
2 a / 1
2
1
~
1
2
Z t 0 Z
1 t 1 2
Exp t 2 B maka
2 2 2 2
a a
L Z1 , Z 2 ,.., Z T : 0 , 1 , a2 A.B
3. METODE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
Model AR(1)
Persamaan tsb dapat dilakukan dengan
mentransformasikan ke dalam bentuk persamaan
logaritma menjadi:
ln f ln f Z : , ,
T
L 0 , 1 , a2 Z1 : 0 , 1 , a2 t 0 1
2
a
t 2
Z1 0 / 1 1
2
T 1 T 1
1
2
1
2
2
ln 2 ln a / 1 1
2
2 a2 / 1 12
2
ln 2
2
ln a2
1 T
2 t
Z 0 Z
1 t 1 2
2 a t 2
T 1 ln 2 T 1 ln 2
T
ln f Z t : 0 , 1 , 2 1
t 0 1 t 1
Z Z 2
2 a2
a a
2 2 t 2
PEMERIKSAAN
DIAGNOSTIK
1. Uji kesignifikanan parameter
2. Uji kesesuaian model
2. UJI KESIGNIFIKANAN PARAMETER
Parameters
ARIMA
model estimates
2. UJI KESESUAIAN MODEL
a) Uji sisa white noise
ACF of
residual
The Model is
where
is an appropriate pre-
differencing transformation
Do not need
pre-differencing
Yt = Original transformation
Data
FORECASTING OF ARIMA(P,D,Q) MODEL
or
Yt = Original
Data
The Model is
Zt = Yt
where
and
Therefore,
EXAMPLE: ARIMA(1,0,1) MODEL … [OTHER CALCULATION]
Yt = Original
The Model is Data
Zt = Yt
Therefore,
EXAMPLE: ARIMA(1,1,1) MODEL … [NONSTATIONARY MODEL]
Yt = Original
Data
The Model is
Zt = Yt – Yt-
1
where
and
Therefore,
Mean (Zt)
PEMILIHAN
MODEL TERBAIK
KRITERIA PEMILIHAN MODEL
Berdasarkan pada residual
AIC M n ln ̂ a2 2M
Akaike’s AIC
SBC( M ) n ln ˆ a2 M ln n
Schwart’z SBC
Criterion
1
1 , p 0
n
CAT p
Parzen’s CAT p
1 1 1 , p 1, 2,3,...
Criterion n j 1 ˆ j
2
ˆ 2p
CONTOH PENERAPAN
EXAMPLE 1: DAILY READINGS OF VISCOSITY OF CHEMICAL
PRODUCT XB-77-5 [BOWERMAN AND O’CONNELL, PG. 471]
EXAMPLE 1: IDENTIFICATION STEP [STATIONARY, ACF AND
PACF]
ACF PACF
Stationer time series
Estimation
and Testing
parameter
Diagnostic
Check (white
noise residual)
EXAMPLE 1: DIAGNOSTIC CHECK STEP … [NORMALITY TEST OF
RESIDUALS]
EXAMPLE 1: FORECASTING STEP [MINITAB
OUTPUT]
CALCULATION: FORECASTING (FITS AND FORECAST)
[CONTINUED]
EXAMPLE 2: WEEKLY SALES OF ULTRA SHINE TOOTHPASTE (IN
UNITS OF 1000 TUBES) [BOWERMAN AND O’CONNELL,
PG. 478]
t Yt t Yt t Yt
1. 235.000 31. 551.925 61. 846.962
2. 239.000 32. 557.929 62. 853.830
3. 244.090 33. 564.285 63. 860.840
4. 252.731 34. 572.164 64. 871.075
5. 264.377 35. 582.926 65. 877.792
… … … … … …
… … … … ... …
26. 517.237 56. 805.844 86. 996.291
27. 524.349 57. 815.122 87. 1003.100
28. 532.104 58. 822.905 88. 1010.320
29. 538.097 59. 930.663 89. 1018.420
30. 544.948 60. 839.600 90. 1029.480
EXAMPLE 2: IDENTIFICATION STEP [STATIONARITY AND
ACF]
Dying down
extremely slowly
ACF
Nonstationary
time series
EXAMPLE 2: IDENTIFICATION STEP … DIFFERENCE [WT = YT – YT-
1]
Stationary
Wt AR(1)
time series
or
Yt
ARI(1,1)
ACF PACF
Estimation
and Testing
parameter
Diagnostic
Check (white
noise residual)
EXAMPLE 2: DIAGNOSTIC CHECK STEP … [NORMALITY TEST OF
RESIDUALS]
EXAMPLE 2: FORECASTING STEP [MINITAB
OUTPUT]
COMPARISON: ARIMA VERSUS TREND ANALYSIS
ARIMA(1,1,0)
MSE = 7.647
PLOT COMPARISON: ARIMA VERSUS TREND ANALYSIS
ARIMA(1,1,0)
MSE = 7.647
Trend Analysis
MSE = 598.212
Forecast
comparison
PLOT RESIDUAL COMPARISON: ARIMA VERSUS TREND
ANALYSIS
ARIMA(1,1,0)
MSE = 7.647
Trend Analysis
MSE = 598.212