Metode
Forecasting
P U T R I M E T Y Z A LY N D A
Metode-Metode
Forecasting
PUTRI MET Y ZALYNDA IR., MT
Kuartal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Forecast, F t
kuartal Aktual
(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (ditetapkan)
2 168 175.00 + .10(180 -
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205
Forecast, Ft
kuartal Aktual
(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (ditetapkan)
2 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00)
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205
Forecast, F t
kuartal Aktual
(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (ditetapkan)
2 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.50
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205
Forecast, F t
Quarter Actual
(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (ditetapkan)
2 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.50
3 159 175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.75
4 175
5 190
6 205
Forecast, F t
Kuartal Aktual
(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Given)
2 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.50
3 159 175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.75
4 175 174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.18
5 190 173.18 + .10(175 - 173.18) = 173.36
6 205
Forecast, F t
Kuartal Aktual
(α = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Given)
2 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.50
3 159 175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.75
4 175 174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.18
5 190 173.18 + .10(175 - 173.18) = 173.36
6 205 173.36 + .10(190 - 173.36) = 175.02
Forecast, F t
kuartal Aktual
(α = .10)
1995 180 175.00 (Given)
1996 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.50
1997 159 175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.75
1998 175 174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75)= 173.18
1999 190
2000 205
Bobot
1 periode lalu 2 periode lalu 3 periode lalu
(1 - ) (1 - )2
Deviation Deviation
Deviation
Deviation Point on
regression
Deviation line
Deviation
Yˆ = a + bx
Time
MANAJEMEN OPERASI PUTRI METY ZALYNDA
Plot data aktual dengan garis Least
Squares
160
140
120
Regression Line
Demand
100
Actual Demand
80
60
40
20
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
MANAJEMEN OPERASI PUTRI METY ZALYNDA
Linear Trend
Projection
Garis linear trend Digunakan untuk meramalkan
Diasumsikan hubungn antara variabel respons Y, dengan waktu X,
adalah linier
Nilai a dan b dihitung dengan prinsip yaitu yang menghasilkan sum of
squared errors minimum
Yi = a + bX i
n
x i y i − nx y
Slope: b = i =n
x i − nx
i =
Y-Intercept: a = y − bx
Permintaan th
MANAJEMEN OPERASI
2005 = 56.70 + 10.54(9) = 151.56
PUTRI METY ZALYNDA
Linear Regression Model
(1…)
Serupa dengan proyeksi trend, hanya saja variabel
dependentnya bukan waktu melainkan variabel lain (X)
Menggambarkan hubungan linier antara variabel
dependent (Y) terhadap independent(X)
Y-intercept
◦ Contoh: Sales Slopewaktu)
& advertising (bukan
Y^ i = a + b X i
Var Dependent
(response) Var Independent (explanatory)
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
i i
(y − ˆ
y )2
forecast errors
2
MSE = i =1
=
n n
• Standar Error of Estimate (SEE):
(y − y )
n
2
i c
S y ,x = i =1
n−2
n n n
y − a y − b x y
2
i i i i
= i =1 i =1 i =1
| y − yˆ |
i i
|forecast errors|
MAD = i =1
=
n n
i =1 actuali
MAPE = 100 x
n