ANALISIS VARIASI MUSIM

Metode Rata-rata Sederhana

Triwulan Bulan
Tahun Produksi
I II III Januari
2008 60.33 28.12 20.91 11.29 Februari
2009 64.40 29.51 22.46 12.43 Maret
2010 66.47 29.32 22.15 14.99 April
2011 69.06 32.13 23.54 13.38 Mei
2012 69.27 32.31 22.88 14.08 Juni
Nilai Total 329.53 151.39 111.94 66.17 Juli
Rata-rata 65.91 30.28 22.39 13.23 Agustus
September
Rata-rata total 1 tahun 65.91 Oktober
Triwulan rata-rata total 21.97 November
Indeks musim I 137.82 Desember
Indeks musim II 101.91 Rata-rata
Indeks musim III 60.24

Rencana produksi 2015 (ton) 72.41

Triwulan rata-rata total 24.14
Target triwulan I 33.27
Target triwulan II 24.60
Target triwulan III 14.54
Volume Penjualan CPO (Ribuan Ton) Rumus Indeks Musim Indeks Musim
95.0 (95/104,6) x 100 90.8
80.4 (80,4/104,6) x 100 76.9
108.9 (108,9/104,6) x 100 104.1
80.9 (80,9/104,6) x 100 77.3
109.6 (109,6/104,6) x 100 104.8
92.0 (92/104,6) x 100 88.0
122.1 (122,1/104,6) x 100 116.7
99.0 (99/104,6) x 100 94.6
102.0 (102/104,6) x 100 97.5
121.7 (121,7/104,6) x 100 116.3
119.0 (119/104,6) x 100 113.8
124.6 (124,6/104,6) x 100 119.1
104.6
1. Rahardi (2151040482)
2. Rachmat Novri Yanda (2151040481)
3. Ridho Andriansyah (2151040486)
4. Silviyana (2151040497)
5. Rico ahmad wijaya (2151040484)
6. Yunita dewi (2151040510)
7. Nadia Puspita Sari (2151040474)
8. Thoriq Vico Ardana (2151040501)
9. Yobi Sobirin (2151040507)
10. Shiva Karlina Dewi (215140494)
11. Rizqon Thoriq (2151040490)
12. Sri nurkhoriyah (2151040498)
13. Yumna Thantya (2151040509)
14. Yolanda sari (2151040508)
15. Rivaldo Ishaq (2151040489)
16. Novita Nadiya Putri (2151040475)
17. Priyanda Yuliana (2151040478)
18. Muzammil(2151040472)
19. Yunita Nurhafiza (2151040511)
20. Tesya sawitri (2151040500)
21. Putri Novita Sari (2151040480)
22. Ridaldi Diluppi (2151040485)
Metode Rata-rata Tren

Bulan Y X XY
Januari 95.0 -5.5 -522.50
Februari 80.4 -4.5 -361.80
Maret 108.9 -3.5 -381.15
April 80.9 -2.5 -202.25
Mei 109.6 -1.5 -164.40
Juni 92.0 -0.5 -46.00
Juli 122.1 0.5 61.05
Agustus 99.0 1.5 148.50
September 102.0 2.5 255.00
Oktober 121.7 3.5 425.95
November 119.0 4.5 535.50
Desember 124.6 5.5 685.30
Jumlah 1255.2 433.20
n 12

Bulan Y Ŷ Indeks Musim

Januari 95.0 87.94 108.03
Februari 80.4 90.97 88.38
Maret 108.9 94.00 115.85
April 80.9 97.03 83.38
Mei 109.6 100.06 109.54
Juni 92.0 103.09 89.25
Juli 122.1 106.11 115.06
Agustus 99.0 109.14 90.71
September 102.0 112.17 90.93
Oktober 121.7 115.20 105.64
November 119.0 118.23 100.65
Desember 124.6 121.26 102.75
Jumlah 1255.2
 X² Ŷ
30.25 87.94 Persamaan tren Ŷ= a + bx
20.25 90.97 Koefisien a 104.60
12.25 94.00 Koefisien b 3.03
6.25 97.03 Persamaan tren Ŷ= 104,60 + 3,03X
2.25 100.06
0.25 103.09
0.25 106.11
2.25 109.14
6.25 112.17
12.25 115.20
20.25 118.23
30.25 121.26
143

Perhitungan
(95/87,94) x 100
(80,4/90,97) x 100
(108,9/94) x 100
(80,9/97,03) x 100
(109,6/100,06) x 100
(92/103,09) x 100
(122,1/106.11) x 100
(99/109,14) x 100
(102/112,17) x 100
(121,7/115,2) x 100
(119/112,23) x 100
(124,6/121,26) x 100
Metode Rasio Rata-Rata Bergerak

Data Asli Tahun Triwulan Data Asli

Triwulan I 28.12
Tahun Produksi
I II III 2008 II 20.91
2008 60.33 28.12 20.91 11.29 III 11.29
2009 64.40 29.51 22.46 12.43 I 29.51
2010 66.47 29.32 22.15 14.99 2009 II 22.46
2011 69.06 32.13 23.54 13.38 III 12.43
2012 69.27 32.31 22.88 14.08 I 29.32
2010 II 22.15
III 14.99
I 32.13
2011 II 23.54
III 13.38
I 32.31
2012 II 22.88
III 14.08
 Total Bergerak 3 Triwulan Rata-Rata Indeks Musim Triwula
Tahun
I
28,12 + 20,91 + 11,29 = 60.32 20.11 104.00 2008
20,91 + 11,29 + 29,51 = 61.71 20.57 54.89 2009 139.95
11,29 + 29,51 + 22,46 = 63.26 21.09 139.95 2010 137.65
29,51 + 22,46 + 12,43 = 64.40 21.47 104.63 2011 136.41
22,46 + 12,43 + 29,32 = 64.21 21.40 58.08 2012 141.36
12,43 + 29,32 + 22,15 = 63.90 21.30 137.65 Rata-rata 138.84
29,32 + 22,15 + 14,99 = 66.46 22.15 99.98
22,15 + 14,99 + 32,13 = 69.27 23.09 64.92 Jumlah kuartal (n)
14,99 + 32,13 + 23,54 = 70.66 23.55 136.41 Jumlah Rata-rata
32,13 + 23,54 + 13,38 = 69.05 23.02 102.27 Faktor Koreksi
23,54 + 13,38 + 32,31 = 69.23 23.08 57.98
13,38 + 32,31 + 22,88 = 68.57 22.86 141.36 Indeks triwulan I
32,31 + 22,88 + 14,08 = 69.27 23.09 99.09 Indeks triwulan II
Indeks triwulan III
Triwulan
II III
104 54.89
104.63 58.08
99.98 64.92
102.27 57.98
99.09
101.99 58.97

3
299.80
1.0006538

138.9
102.1
59.0
ANALISIS VARIASI SIKLUS

Indeks Siklus

Data Asli
Triwulan Tahun Triwulan Y
Tahun Produksi
I II III I 28.12
2008 60.33 28.12 20.91 11.29 2008 II 20.91
2009 64.40 29.51 22.46 12.43 III 11.29
2010 66.47 29.32 22.15 14.99 I 29.51
2011 69.06 32.13 23.54 13.38 2009 II 22.46
2012 69.27 32.31 22.88 14.08 III 12.43
I 29.32
2010 II 22.15
III 14.99
I 32.13
2011 II 23.54
III 13.38
I 32.31
2012 II 22.88
III 14.08
 T S TCI = (Y/S)*100 CI = (TCI/T)*100 C
22.41
22.34 104 20.1 90
22.28 55 20.6 92 92
22.22 140 21.1 95 95
22.16 105 21.5 97 96
22.09 58 21.4 97 97
22.03 138 21.3 97 98
21.97 100 22.2 101 101
21.91 65 23.1 105 105
21.84 136 23.6 108 106
21.78 102 23.0 106 107
21.72 58 23.1 106 106
21.65 141 22.9 106 106
21.59 99 23.1 107
21.53
ANALISIS GERAK TAK BERATURAN

Tahun Triwulan Y T S TCI = (Y/S)*100 CI = (TCI/T)*100

I 28.12 22.41
2008 II 20.91 22.34 104 20.1 90
III 11.29 22.28 55 20.6 92

I 29.51 22.22 140 21.1 95

2009 II 22.46 22.16 105 21.5 97
III 12.43 22.09 58 21.4 97

I 29.32 22.03 138 21.3 97

2010 II 22.15 21.97 100 22.2 101
III 14.99 21.91 65 23.1 105

I 32.13 21.84 136 23.6 108

2011 II 23.54 21.78 102 23.0 106
III 13.38 21.72 58 23.1 106

I 32.31 21.65 141 22.9 106

2012 II 22.88 21.59 99 23.1 107
III 14.08 21.53
C I = (CI/C)*100

92 100

95 100
96 101
97 100

98 99
101 100
105 101

106 101
107 99
106 100

106 99