Arch Garch Forecasting
Arch Garch Forecasting
Forecasting
https://bit.ly/Lab6TS
Volatility
Clustering
GARCH with
1 ARCH Model 4
ARMA Process
2 GARCH Model
5 EGARCH
3 6 TARCH
ARCH in Mean
Tahapan forcasting ARCH GARCH
1. Stationarity test
2. Mencari ordo terbaik
3. ARCH effect test/melihat heteroskedastisitas
4. Model with ARCH GARCH
5. Stationarity test on Variance
6. Forecast ARCH GARCH
command:
estat archlm, lags(1/n)
Hipotesis:
ARCH
• H0 : tidak memiliki ARCH Effect
• Ha : memiliki ARCH Effect
Effect Kriteria :
•p.value < α H0 ditolak
Test •p.value > α H0 tidakdapatditolak
3
Kesimpulan :
•Dengan tingkat signifikansi 1% / 5% /
1 10% dapat disimpulkan bahwa model
(memiliki/tidak memiliki) ARCH effect
pada periode ...
GARCH Model
ARCH Model
Generalized Autoregressive Conditional
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
Heteroskedasticity
ARMA Process
Conditional Variance
Asymmetry in GARCH
ARCH:
Model
arch varname l.varname, arch (p)
with ARCH
GARCH:
GARCH arch varname l.varname, arch (p) garch (q)
Keterangan : ARCH-M:
arch varname l.varname, archm arch (p)
(p) = lag atau ordo dari model AR
(q) = lag atau ordo dari model MA
3
GARCH with ARMA Process:
arch varname, ar (p) ma (q) arch (p) garch (q)
Contoh :
1
Model GARCH dengan ordo ARMA(1,1)
EGARCH:
arch varname, ar (p) ma (q) earch (p) egarch (q)
Maka Commandnya :
arch varname l.varname, arch(1) garch(1)
Stationarity test
on variance
Hipotesis:
Kesimpulan:
H0 : non-stasioner
Jadi, dengan tingkat signifikansi 1%/5%/10% dapat
Ha : stasioner
disimpulkan bahwavariansnya stasioner di tingkat level
Kriteria:
The non-stationarity on variance may indicate asymmetry
p.value < α H0 ditolak
effect within the model, so we need to use model for
p.value > α H0 tidak dapatditolak
asymmetry to deal with it.
1.STATIC FORECASTING
Menggunakan data aktual
Hanya memprediksi untuk satu periode saja,
Forecasting
Perbedaan data asli dan hasil peramalan tidak
jauh berbeda