Statistika

Volume Ekspor Kokoa Tahun 2002 - 2021

Dosen Pengampu : Deasy Mandasari MT

 Kelompok I

1.Muhammad Andrian Fakih

2.Muhammad Raihan Hadianto

3.Muhammad Yahya Hasani

 Pokok Bahasan
Analisis Tabel Data Ekspor Kokoa

Analisis Data Berkala

Dengan Microsoft Excell

Analisis Data Berkala

Dengan IBM SPSS Statistic

Perhitungan Manual
Analisis Data Berkala
 Tujuan

1. Mencari persamaan linear

2. Mencari peramalan 5 tahun berikutnya

3. Mencari perbandingan perhitungan

Excel, SPSS, dan manual.
 Subtitle
Software
Analisis

Add your
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Add your text texttext text text text text text text text
Microsoft text text text text text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text

Excell IBM SPSS

text text text text text text text text text
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Data Berkala Ekspor Kokoa

https://bit.ly/kokoa2021
 Data Berkala Ekspor Kokoa

Data dari Badan

Pusat Statistika

20 Tahun
2002
s/d
2021
 Trend Sekuler

Gerakan dalam deret berkala

yang berjangka panjang, lamban dan
berkecenderungan menuju ke satu arah, arah
menaik atau menurun.

Umumnya meliputi gerakan yang

lamanya 10 tahun atau lebih
 Forecasting

Proses memprediksi atau memproyeksikan

kejadian atau nilai di masa depan berdasarkan
data trend sekuler yang tersedia.

• Metode Moving Average

• Metode Semi-Average
• Metode Least Square
 Subtitle
Trend Sekuler
Menentukan trend dengan Metode
Least Square

Add your
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Add your text texttext text text text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text
Microsoft text text text text text text text text text

Excell
 Subtitle
subtitl
Least Square
e

Add your title

1. Excell tidak dapat menentukan peramalan dengan Metode
text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text
Least
text Square,
text text text text namun dengan data
text text analysis
text text text regresi dan text text text text text
korelasi
text dapat
text text text
text text text text text
dan titik potong
Subtitle
text membantutext menemukan
text text text textangka miringtext
text text text text text
(intercept) yang juga terdapat dalam
(slope)
text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text text text text text texttext
texttext
texttext
text text
Metode Least Square. Add your text texttext text text text text text text text
2. Satu-satunya metode peramalam yangtext text text text
didukung text text text text text
Excel
text text text text text text text text text
secara otomatis adalah Metode Moving textAverage.
text text text text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text
 Subtitle
subtitl
Least Square
e

Add your title

1. Masukan data tahun X (variable independen) dan data
text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text
ekspor
text text textYtext
(variable
text dependen) di text
text text duatextkolom
text berbeda. text text text text text
2.
3.
Pilih
text text menu

Pilih
text text text
text text text text text
Regression,
Subtitle
Data, kemudiantextcari
lalu isi Y range
text sub-menu
text text text Data Analysis.
text text text text text
dengan data ekspor
text text text text text
text text text text text
dan isitextXtext
text text text text text text text text text text text text text texttext texttext
text text
range dengan data tahun. Add your text texttext text text text text text text text
4. Untuk menghasilkan regresi linier pada text trend text secular,
text text text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text
centang Standarizer Residuals, Residualtext Plot,textdan
text Line Fittext text text text
text text
Plot. text text text text text text text text text

5. Lihat hasil perhitungan pada bagian Coefficient, perhatikan

angka intercept dan slope/Y variable.
Data Analysis
Histogram
 Subtitle
Trend Sekuler
Menentukan trend dengan Metode
Least Square

Add your
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Add your text texttext text text text text text text text
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text text text text text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text
IBM text text text text text text text text text

SPSS
 Subtitle
subtitl
Least Square
e

1. Pilih "Analyze" > "Regression" > "Linear" dari menu SPSS.

2. Pilih
text
text
variabel
Add your
text text text text text
text text text text text
dantext variabel title
dependen text text text text text
sebagai
text text textwaktu sebagai
(independent).
text text text text
text text text text
Subtitle
variabel
text text text text text
textvariabel
terikat
independen
text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text
text text text text text
(dependent)
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
texttext
texttext
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text text
3. Klik "Statistics" dan centang "Estimatestext of text text text text
model
Add your text texttext text text text text text text text
parameters" dan "Model fit.". text text text text text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text
4. Pastikan untuk mencentang opsi "R-squared change."
text text text text text text text text text
5. Kemudian jika ingin menambahkan histogram, klik
text text text text"Plots"
text text text text text
kemudian masukan Y dan X Dependnt, jangan lupa
Centang "Histogram" pada Standardized Residual Plots,
klik "Continue".
6. Klik "OK" untuk menjalankan regresi linier.
Data Analysis
Data Analysis
Histogram
 Subtitle
Trend Sekuler
Menentukan trend dengan Metode
Semi-Average dan Least Square

Add your
text text text Menggunakan
text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text
title
perhitungan
text text text text text manual text text text text text
text text text text text

Subtitle
text text text text text
text text text text text
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Add your text texttext text text text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text
text text text text text text text text text

Manual
 Subtitle

Rumus Slope

Rumus Intercept
Add your title
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
m
text text text text
=
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
miring/slope
text text text text
c = intercept
Add your text
n = jumlah data
X = variable independent (ekspor)
Y = variable dependent (tahun)

Metode Least Square

 Subtitle

Rumus Forecast
Add your title
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
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y =
text text text text text variable
text text text text text
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dependent (tahun
text text text yang
text text
text text text text akan diprediksi) text text text text
text text text text
Add youra =text
intercept, titik potong dari garis
regresi
b = koefisien, gradien dari garis
Regresi
x = nilai dari koefisien

Metode Least Square

 Least Square
Volume Volume
No. Tahun No. Tahun X
Kolom vertikal (dalam Ton) (dalam Ton) Data termasuk
1 2002 465.622 1 2002 465.622 -19
2 2003 355.726 2 2003 355.726 -17 DATA GENAP
3 2004 366.855 3 2004 366.855 -15
4 2005 463.632 4 2005 463.632 -13
5 2006 609.035 5 2006 609.035 -11
6 2007 503.522 6 2007 503.522 -9
7 2008 515.523 7 2008 515.523 -7
8 2009 535.236 8 2009 535.236 -5
9 2010 552.880 9 2010 552.880 -3
10 2011 410.257 10 2011 410.257 -1
11 2012 387.790 11 2012 387.790 1
12 2013 414.092 12 2013 414.092 3
13 2014 333.679 13 2014 333.679 5
14 2015 355.321 14 2015 355.321 7
15 2016 330.029 15 2016 330.029 9
16 2017 354.880 16 2017 354.880 11
17 2018 380.827 17 2018 380.827 13
18 2019 358.481 18 2019 358.481 15
19 2020 377.849 19 2020 377.849 17
20 2021 382.712 20 2021 382.712 19
 Least Square
Volume
No. Tahun X XY X^2
(dalam Ton)
1 2002 465.622 -19-8.846.818 361
XY = koefisien nilai ekspor * volume
2 2003 355.726 -17-6.047.342 289 ekspor
3 2004 366.855 -15-5.502.825 225
4 2005 463.632 -13-6.027.216 169
5 2006 609.035 -11-6.699.385 121
6 2007 503.522 -9-4.531.698 81
= koefisien nilai ekspor^2
7 2008 515.523 -7-3.608.661 49
8 2009 535.236 -5-2.676.180 25
9 2010 552.880 -3-1.658.640 9
10 2011 410.257 -1- 410.257 1
11 2012 387.790 1 387.790 1
12 2013 414.092 3 1.242.276 9
13 2014 333.679 5 1.668.395 25
14 2015 355.321 7 2.487.247 49
15 2016 330.029 9 2.970.261 81
16 2017 354.880 11 3.903.680 121
17 2018 380.827 13 4.950.751 169
18 2019 358.481 15 5.377.215 225
19 2020 377.849 17 6.423.433 289
20 2021 382.712 19 7.271.528 361
 Least Square
Volume
No. Tahun X XY X^2 a b

1
(dalam Ton)
2002 465.622 -19-8.846.818 361
𝒂=
∑ 𝒚
2 2003 355.726 -17-6.047.342 289
3 2004 366.855 -15-5.502.825 225 𝒏
4 2005 463.632 -13-6.027.216 169
5
6
2006 609.035
2007 503.522
-11-6.699.385
-9-4.531.698
121
81
𝒃=
∑ 𝒙𝒚
7
8
9
2008 515.523
2009 535.236
2010 552.880
-7-3.608.661
-5-2.676.180
-3-1.658.640
49
25
9
∑ 𝒙𝟐
10 2011 410.257 -1- 410.257 1
11 2012 387.790 1 387.790 1 422.697 - 3.506
12 2013 414.092 3 1.242.276 9
13 2014 333.679 5 1.668.395 25
14 2015 355.321 7 2.487.247 49
15 2016 330.029 9 2.970.261 81
16 2017 354.880 11 3.903.680 121
17 2018 380.827 13 4.950.751 169
18 2019 358.481 15 5.377.215 225
19 2020 377.849 17 6.423.433 289
20 2021 382.712 19 7.271.528 361
8.453.948 0-9.326.446 2660
ΣY ΣXY ΣX^2
 Least Square
Volume
No. Tahun X XY X^2 a b Ramalan
(dalam Ton) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 2002 465.622 -19-8.846.818 361
2 2003 355.726 -17-6.047.342 289
3 2004 366.855 -15-5.502.825 225
4 2005 463.632 -13-6.027.216 169
5 2006 609.035 -11-6.699.385 121
6 2007 503.522 -9-4.531.698 81
7 2008 515.523 -7-3.608.661 49
8 2009 535.236 -5-2.676.180 25
9 2010 552.880 -3-1.658.640 9
10 2011 410.257 -1- 410.257 1
11 2012 387.790 1 387.790 1 422.697 - 3.506 349.068 342.055 335.043 328.030 321.018
12 2013 414.092 3 1.242.276 9
13 2014 333.679 5 1.668.395 25
14 2015 355.321 7 2.487.247 49
15 2016 330.029 9 2.970.261 81
16 2017 354.880 11 3.903.680 121
17 2018 380.827 13 4.950.751 169
18 2019 358.481 15 5.377.215 225
19 2020 377.849 17 6.423.433 289
20 2021 382.712 19 7.271.528 361
20 8.453.948 0-9.326.446 2660
n ΣY ΣXY ΣX^2
 Least Square
a b
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

y = a + bx y = a + bx
= 422.697 + (-3.506 . 21) = 422.697 + (-3.506 . 27)
= 349.068 = 328.030
422.697 - 3.506 349.068 342.055 335.043 328.030 321.018

y = a + bx y = a + bx
= 422.697 + (-3.506 . 23) = 422.697 + (-3.506 . 29)
= 342.055 = 321.018

y = a + bx
= 422.697 + (-3.506 . 25)
= 335.043
 Rumus Slope Rumus Intercept

Least Square
Volume Kuadrat Tahun Produk Tahun Ekspor Miring Prediksi
No. Tahun Intercept
(dalam Ton) (X^2) (X.Y) (Slope) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 2002 465.622 4.008.004 932.175.244
2 2003 355.726 4.012.009 712.519.178
3 2004 366.855 4.016.016 735.177.420
4 2005 463.632 4.020.025 929.582.160
5 2006 609.035 4.024.036 1.221.724.210
6 2007 503.522 4.028.049 1.010.568.654
7 2008 515.523 4.032.064 1.035.170.184
8 2009 535.236 4.036.081 1.075.289.124
9 2010 552.880 4.040.100 1.111.288.800
10 2011 410.257 4.044.121 825.026.827
11 2012 387.790 4.048.144 780.233.480 - 7.012,37 14.528.070,43 349.067,56 342.055,20 335.042,83 328.030,47 321.018,10
12 2013 414.092 4.052.169 833.567.196
13 2014 333.679 4.056.196 672.029.506
14 2015 355.321 4.060.225 715.971.815
15 2016 330.029 4.064.256 665.338.464
16 2017 354.880 4.068.289 715.792.960
17 2018 380.827 4.072.324 768.508.886
18 2019 358.481 4.076.361 723.773.139
19 2020 377.849 4.080.400 763.254.980
20 2021 382.712 4.084.441 773.460.952
Σ 40230 8.453.948 80.923.310 17.000.453.179
Desk ΣX ΣY ΣX^2 ΣXY
 Subtitle

Rumus Slope
Add your title
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text
text text text text text
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text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text
m =
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
miring/slopetext text text text
c = intercept
= 14.528.070,43 Add your text
n = jumlah data
X = variable independent (ekspor)
Y = variable dependent (tahun)

Metode Least Square

 Subtitle

Rumus Slope

=
Add your title
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
-7.012,37text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text
m =
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
miring/slopetext text text text
c = intercept
Add your text
n = jumlah data
X = variable independent (ekspor)
Y = variable dependent (tahun)

Metode Least Square


Rumus
Add your title
Semi
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text
Total
Metode Semi-Average
Subtitle
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
a = semi total
text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text
f = total semua frekuensi data
Add your text
Kelompok
 Subtitle

Rumus Semi Averagetext text text text text

Add
text text text text text

your
text text text text text
text text text text text
x̅
text text text text text
text text text text
title
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
x̅
text text text text
= mean /
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
text text text text text
rata-rata semi-average
text text text text
n = total semua data Kelompok
Add your text

Metode Semi-Average
 Semi-Average
Volume Volume
No. Tahun No. Tahun X
(dalam Ton) (dalam Ton)
Kolom vertikal 1 2002 465.622 1 2002 465.622 -5 Data termasuk
2 2003 355.726 -4
2 2003 355.726
3 2004 366.855 -3
DATA GENAP
3 2004 366.855
4 2005 463.632 4 2005 463.632 -2
5 2006 609.035 5 2006 609.035 -1
6 2007 503.522 6 2007 503.522 1
7 2008 515.523 7 2008 515.523 2
8 2009 535.236 8 2009 535.236 3
9 2010 552.880 9 2010 552.880 4
10 2011 410.257 10 2011 410.257 5
11 2012 387.790 11 2012 387.790 6
12 2013 414.092 12 2013 414.092 7
13 2014 333.679 13 2014 333.679 8
14 2015 355.321 14 2015 355.321 9
15 2016 330.029 15 2016 330.029 10
16 2017 354.880 16 2017 354.880 11
17 2018 380.827 17 2018 380.827 12
18 2019 358.481 18 2019 358.481 13
19 2020 377.849 19 2020 377.849 14
20 2021 382.712 20 2021 382.712 15
 Semi-Average
Volume Volume Semi
No. Tahun X No. Tahun X
(dalam Ton) (dalam Ton) Total
Kolom vertikal 1 2002 465.622 -5 1 2002 465.622 -5 Hitung jumlah
2 2003 355.726 -4 2 2003 355.726 -4
3 2004 366.855 -3 3 2004 366.855 -3
Semi total
4 2005 463.632 -2 4 2005 463.632 -2 K1 dan K2
5 2006 609.035 -1 5 2006 609.035 -1 4.778.288
6 2007 503.522 1 6 2007 503.522 1
7 2008 515.523 2 7 2008 515.523 2
8 2009 535.236 3 8 2009 535.236 3
9 2010 552.880 4 9 2010 552.880 4
10 2011 410.257 5 10 2011 410.257 5
11 2012 387.790 6 11 2012 387.790 6
12 2013 414.092 7 12 2013 414.092 7
13 2014 333.679 8 13 2014 333.679 8
14 2015 355.321 9 14 2015 355.321 9
15 2016 330.029 10 15 2016 330.029 10
3.675.660
16 2017 354.880 11 16 2017 354.880 11
17 2018 380.827 12 17 2018 380.827 12
18 2019 358.481 13 18 2019 358.481 13
19 2020 377.849 14 19 2020 377.849 14
20 2021 382.712 15 20 2021 382.712 15
 Semi-Average
Volume Semi Semi
No. Tahun X
Total Average
Kolom vertikal (dalam Ton) Hitung jumlah
1 2002 465.622 -5
2 2003 355.726 -4 Semi Average
3 2004 366.855 -3
4 2005 463.632 -2
5 2006 609.035 -1 4.778.288 477.829
6 2007 503.522 1
7
8
2008
2009
515.523
535.236
2
3 x̅
9
10
2010
2011
552.880
410.257
4
5
x̅
11 2012 387.790 6
12
13
2013
2014
414.092
333.679
7
8
x̅
14
15
2015
2016
355.321
330.029
9
10
3.675.660 367.566
x̅
x̅ 367.566
16 2017 354.880 11
17 2018 380.827 12
18 2019 358.481 13
19
20
2020
2021
377.849
382.712
14
15
x̅ 477.829
 Semi-Average
Volume Semi Semi 2022 2025
No. Tahun X
Total Average a= 477.829
Kolom vertikal (dalam Ton) a= 477.829
Hitung jumlah
1 2002 465.622 -5 b= - 11.026 b = - 11.026
2 2003 355.726 -4 y= a + bx y= a + bx Semi Average
3 2004 366.855 -3 = 389.619 = 373.079
4 2005 463.632 -2
5 2006 609.035 -1 2023 2026
4.778.288 477.829
6 2007 503.522 1 a= 477.829 a= 477.829
7 2008 515.523 2 b = - 11.026 b= - 11.026
8 2009 535.236 3 y= a + bx y= a + bx

=𝒂 + 𝒃𝒙
9 2010 552.880 4 = 384.105 = 367.566
10 2011 410.257 5
11 2012 387.790 6 2024
12 2013 414.092 7 a= 477.829
13 2014 333.679 8 b = - 11.026
14 2015 355.321 9 y= a + bx
15 2016 330.029 10 = 378.592
3.675.660 367.566
16 2017 354.880 11
17 2018 380.827 12
18 2019 358.481 13
19 2020 377.849 14
20 2021 382.712 15
 Semi-Average
2022 2024
a= 477.829 a= 477.829
Rumus Forecat b= - 11.026 b = - 11.026 y = 477.929 + .
y= a + bx y = 477.929 + . y= a + bx
= 389.619 = 378.592
y = 477.929 + (-11.026). y = 477.929 + (-11.026).

y = 389.619 y = 378.592

2026 2023 2025

a= 477.829 a= 477.829 y = 477.929 + . a= 477.829
b= - 11.026 b = - 11.026 b = - 11.026 y = 477.929 + .
y= a + bx y= a + bx y = 477.929 + (-11.026). y= a + bx
= 367.566 = 384.105 = 373.079 y = 477.929 + (-11.026).
y = 384.105
y = 373.079
 Kesimpulan

Ramalan angka suatu data (forecast) dapat ditentukan dengan metode data berkala.
Metode Least Square dan Metode Semi-Averarge tidak memiliki toolpack khusus di

Add your title

Microsoft Excell dan SPSS, namun kita dapat menemukan intersep data berkala
dengan bantuan data analysis analisa regresi.

Dalam analisis regresi, X dan Y adalah variabel-variabel yang digunakan untuk

memodelkan hubungan antara dua dataset. Dalam konteks data ekspor cokelat per
ton dari tahun 2002 hingga 2021, biasanya tahun akan dianggap sebagai variabel X
Add your text
(variabel independen), sedangkan ekspor per ton akan dianggap sebagai variabel Y
(variabel dependen).
 Kesimpulan

Ramalan menurut Ramalan menurut Meramalkan nilai data di

Metode Least Square Metode Semi Average masa yang akan datang

Add your title

dengan metode least
Volume Tahun 2021 Volume Tahun 2021 square dan semi-average
349.068 389.619 menghasilkan nominal
Volume Tahun 2022 Volume Tahun 2022 yang berbeda.
342.055 384.105
Volume Tahun 2023 Volume Tahun 2023 Metode Semi Average
335.043 378.592 Memiliki prediksi yang
Volume Tahun 2024 Add
Volume your
Tahun 2024text lebih tinggi daripada
328.030 373.079 menggunakan Metode
Volume Tahun 2025 Volume Tahun 2025 Least Square.
321.018 367.566
 Subtitle
Q&A

Add your
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 Subtitle
Q&A

Add your
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