OUTLOOK ENERGI
INDONESIA
2015
Editor:
Agus Sugiyono
Anindhita
M. Sidik Boedoyo
Adiarso
ii
SAMBUTAN
Dengan mengucap puji syukur ke hadirat Allah SWT, saya menyambut gembira Badan Pengkajian dan
Penerapan Teknologi (BPPT) dapat menerbitkan buku Outlook Energi Indonesia (OEI) 2015 ini. BPPT secara
berkala telah dan akan menerbitkan buku OEI dan BPPT-OEI 2015 ini merupakan terbitan yang ketujuh. Secara
umum buku OEI membahas tentang permasalahan energi saat ini serta memberi gambaran kebutuhan dan
pasokan energi di masa mendatang untuk kurun waktu tertentu. Berbagai aspek dalam pengembangan energi
nasional yang merupakan isu-isu penting dipertimbangkan dan dikupas secara khusus dalam buku BPPT-OEI.
BPPT-OEI 2015 membahas
mengangkat topik bahasan
Penyusunan buku ini juga
ekonomi, kebijakan serta
antara lain proyeksi energi dalam kurun waktu 2015 sampai 2050, dengan
Pengembangan Energi untuk Mendukung Pembangunan yang Berkelanjutan.
mempertimbangkan keterkaitan antara sektor energi dengan pembangunan
teknologi yang prospektif untuk dikembangkan di masa mendatang.
Mudah-mudahan hasil pembahasan yang dituangkan dalam buku ini dapat menjadi masukan yang
bermanfaat bagi pemerintah dan masyarakat serta pihak terkait lainnya dalam pembangunan ekonomi
Indonesia, serta secara khusus bagi pihak yang mengelola dan mengembangkan sektor energi di Indonesia.
Tak lupa saya menyampaikan terima kasih dan penghargaan kepada tim penyusun serta semua pihak
yang telah memberi dukungan dan bantuan sehingga buku ini bisa diterbitkan. Kami menyadari
adanya kekurangan dan keterbatasan pada buku ini, untuk itu diharapkan sumbang saran maupun
kritik yang membangun untuk perbaikan dan penyempurnaan pada penerbitan buku berikutnya.
iii
FOREWORD
With praise and gratitude to Allah SWT, I warmly welcome the publication of Indonesia Energy Outlook
(OEI) 2015 by the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). BPPT has been published
OEI periodically and BPPT-OEI 2015 is the seventh edition. In general, OEI discusses the current energy problems
and illustrates supply and demand of energy in the future. Various aspects in development of national energy are
important issues to be considered and studied specifically in BPPT-OEI.
BPPT-OEI 2015 discusses, among others, energy projection in 2015-2050 periods with topic Energy Development
in Supporting Sustainable Development. BPPT-OEI 2015 also considers linkages between energy sector with
economic development, policies and prospective technologies to be developed in the future.
I am optimist that results of discussion which are outlined in BPPT-OEI 2015 will be a useful input for the
government, society and other stakeholders in the economic development of Indonesia, and in particular for those
who manage and develop the energy sector in Indonesia.
I would like to extend my appreciation and thanks to the authors and editors and all parties that have supported
and provided assistance so that this book can be published. We are aware of the limitations in this publication
and so we welcome all feedbacks as well as constructive criticisms for improvement and refinement of the next
publication.
iv
TIM PENYUSUN
AUTHORS
INFORMASI / INFORMATION
Bidang Perencanaan Energi
Pusat Teknologi Pengembangan Sumber Daya Energi (PTPSE)
Badan Pengkajian dan Penerapan Teknologi (BPPT)
Gedung 625, Klaster Energi, Kawasan Puspiptek, Kota Tangerang Selatan
Telp./Fax. (021) 7579-1357
Email: agus.sugiyono@bppt.go.id
vi
DAFTAR ISI
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Sambutan / Foreword .
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Tim Penyusun / Authors .
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Ucapan Terima Kasih / Acknowledgment
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Daftar Isi / Table of Contents
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Bab 1 Pendahuluan / Introduction
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1.1
Latar Belakang / Background
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1.2
Model dan Pemutakhiran Data / Model and Data Update .
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1.2.1 Model Kebutuhan Energi / Energy Demand Model .
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1.2.2 Model Penyediaan Energi / Energy Supply Model .
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1.2.3 Pemutakhiran Data / Data Update
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1.3
Skenario dan Kasus / Skenario and Case .
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1.3.1 Skenario Energi Berkelanjutan / Sustainable Energy Scenario
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1.3.2 Kasus / Case .
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Bab 2 Kondisi dan Permasalahan Energi Saat Ini / Current Energy Conditions and Issues .
2.1
Produk Domestik Bruto dan Penduduk / Gross Domestic Product and Population
2.2
Konsumsi Energi Final / Final Energy Consumption .
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.
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2.2.1 Konsumsi Energi Final per Sektor / Final Energy Consumption by Sector
2.2.2 Konsumsi Energi Final per Jenis / Final Energy Consumption by Type
2.3
Ketenagalistrikan / Electricity
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2.4
Potensi Sumber Daya Energi / Energy Resource Potential .
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2.4.1 Potensi Sumber Daya Energi Fosil / Fossil Energy Resource Potential
2.4.2 Potensi Sumber Daya Energi Baru dan Terbarukan / New and Renewable
Energy Resource Potential
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2.5
Permasalahan Energi Saat Ini / Current Energy Issues
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2.5.1 Permasalahan Umum / General Issues .
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2.5.2 Permasalahan Sektor Transportasi / Transportation Sector Issues .
2.5.3 Permasalahan Ketenagalistrikan / Electricity Issues .
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2.6
Kebijakan Energi Terkini / Recent Energy Policy .
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2.6.1 Kebijakan Energi Nasional/ National Energy Policy .
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2.6.2 Program 35.000 MW / Program of 35,000 MW .
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2.6.3 Diversifikasi Energi / Energy Diversification
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2.6.4 Konservasi Energi / Energy Conservation .
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2.6.5 Subsidi Energi / Energy Subsidy .
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2.6.6 Feed-in Tariff .
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2.6.7 Persentase Minimal Penjualan Batubara Domestik / Domestic Market
Obligation of Coal
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Bab 3 Proyeksi Kebutuhan Energi / Energy Demand Projection .
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3.1
Kebutuhan Energi Per Jenis / Energy Demand by Type
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3.2
Kebutuhan Energi Per Sektor / Energy Demand by Sector .
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3.2.1 Sektor Industri / Industry Sector .
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iii
v
vi
vii
1
2
4
4
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5
6
6
7
9
10
11
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12
14
15
15
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31
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34
35
vii
Daftar Isi
3.2.2 Sektor Transportasi / Transportation Sector
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3.2.3 Sektor Rumah Tangga / Household Sector .
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3.2.4 Sektor Komersial / Commercial Sector .
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3.2.5 Sektor Lainnya / Other Sector .
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Bab 4 Proyeksi Penyediaan Energi / Energy Supply Projection .
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4.1
Minyak Bumi dan BBM / Crude Oil and Oil Fuels .
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4.1.1 Neraca Minyak Bumi / Crude Oil Balance .
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4.1.2 Neraca Bahan Bakar Cair / Liquid Fuels Balance .
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4.1.3 Pemanfaatan Bahan Bakar Cair / Liquid Fuels Utilization .
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4.2
Gas Bumi, LNG dan LPG / Natural Gas, LNG and LPG
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4.2.1 Gas Bumi / Natural Gas .
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4.2.2 LNG .
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4.2.3 LPG .
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4.3
Batubara / Coal .
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4.3.1 Neraca Batubara / Coal Balance .
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4.3.2 Pemanfaatan Batubara / Coal Utilization .
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4.4
Energi Baru dan Terbarukan / New and Renewable Energy .
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4.5
Energi Primer / Primary Energy .
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4.5.1 Penyediaan Energi Primer / Primary Energy Supply .
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4.5.2 Neraca Energi / Energy Balance .
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Bab 5 Proyeksi Kebutuhan dan Penyediaan Energi di Sektor Ketenagalistrikan / Projection of
Energy Demand and Supply in Electricity Sector .
.
.
.
.
5.1
Proyeksi Kebutuhan Listrik Per Sektor / Projection of Electricity Demand by Sector
5.2
Proyeksi Kapasitas Pembangkit Listrik / Power Plant Capacity Projection .
5.3
Proyeksi Produksi Listrik / Projection of Electricity Production
.
.
5.4
Proyeksi Kebutuhan Bahan Bakar Pembangkit Listrik / Fuel Demand Projection for
Power Plant .
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5.5
Tambahan Kapasitas Pembangkit / Additional Capacity of Power Plant
.
Bab 6 Pengembangan Energi untuk Mendukung Pembangunan Berkelanjutan / Energy
Development in Supporting Sustainable Development .
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6.1
Ruang Lingkup / Framework . .
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6.2
Sektor Penghasil Emisi, Jenis Emisi, dan Faktor Emisi GRK / Emission Producing
Sector, Emissions Type, and Emission Factor of GHG
.
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6.3
Emisi Baseline / Baseline Emission
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6.4
Emisi Mitigasi / Mitigation Emission
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6.5
Intensitas Emisi GRK / GHG Emission Intensity .
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6.6
Optimalisasi Mitigasi GRK / Optimization of GHG Mitigation
.
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Bab 7 Penutup / Closing
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Daftar Pustaka / References
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Photo Credits .
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viii
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40
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77
78
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93
95
Bab 1. Pendahuluan
Chapter 1. Introduction
Introduction
Introduction
Pada
skenario
EB
pertumbuhan
PDB
mempertimbangkan skenario progressive reform
2015-2019 dari Bappenas. Pada kurun waktu tersebut
PDB meningkat rata-rata pertumbuhan sebesar 5,3%
per tahun. Pertumbuhan PDB untuk kurun waktu
2020-2050 mengikuti trend tahun sebelumnya.
Satuan / Unit
Populasi / Population
Pertumbuhan rata-rata /
Juta / Million
%/tahun /
Average growth
%/year
Harga Minyak* /
USD/barrel
(current price)
Harga Batubara** /
Coal price
Tahun / Year
2013
2016
2020
2025
2050
248.7
258.6
271.1
284.8
328.5
1.38
1.22
1.16
0.98
0.41
108.6
71.1
79.1
91.1
188.9
USD/ton
Current Price
84.6
69.7
81.9
98.1
210.7
Harga LNG*** /
LNG price
USD/MMBTU
(current price)
17.3
16.3
16.6
18.2
29.0
PDB / GDP
9,272
13,026
12,266
20,771
17,952
30,472
94,205
128,879
5.21
5.70
8.00
7.79
6.00
constant 2010
current Price
Pertumbuhan PDB /
%/tahun /
GDP Growth
%/year
Catatan/ Note : *) Brent Price **) Australian Coal ***) CIF on Japan
Sumber: Diolah berdasarkan World Bank (2015), IMF (2015) dan Knoema (2015) /
Source: Calculated based on World Bank (2015), IMF (2015) and Knoema (2015)
Introduction
1.3.2 Kasus
1.3.2 Case
Pendapatan per
kapita / Income per 2000
capita
2005
2010
2050
2050
$220,120
2030
$ 22,415
Pendapatan Tinggi /
High Income
2025
$ 12,317
$12,616
2020
$ 6,727
Pendapatan
Menengah Atas/
Upper Middle Income
$4,086
Pendapatan
Menengah Bawah /
Lower Middle Income
$1,036
Pendapatan
Rendah / Lower
Income
2010
$ 3,006
2013
$ 2,997
2005
$ 1,284
2000
$ 706
Pendahuluan
3,000
7%
5.69%
2,500
6%
2,314
4.86%
5.78%
2,000
1,751
1,500
36.52
250
200
239
205
220
1,000
2%
2005
PDB / GDP
2010
Pertumbuhan / Growth
2013
50
0%
30
25
27.03
20
15
12.62
100
1%
40
35
249
150
3%
500
10
5%
4%
1,390
2000
300
2,770
6.22%
10
6.78
5
0
2000
2005
2010
Penduduk / Population
2013
1,200
1,011
1,000
800
764
Lainnya / Other
835
Komersial / Commercial
Transportasi / Transportation
Rumah Tangga / Household
600
Industri / Industry
400
Total
200
0
2000
2005
2010
2013
11
Konsumsi energi final menurut jenis selama tahun 20002013 masih didominasi oleh BBM (bensin, minyak solar,
IDO, minyak tanah, minyak bakar, avtur dan avgas). Selama
kurun waktu tersebut, total konsumsi BBM meningkat dari
315 juta SBM pada tahun 2000 menjadi 399 juta SBM pada
tahun 2013 atau meningkat rata-rata 1,83% per tahun.
Pada tahun 2000, konsumsi minyak solar mempunyai
pangsa terbesar (38,7%) disusul minyak tanah (23,4%),
bensin (23,0%), minyak bakar (9,6%), IDO (3%) dan avtur
(2,2%). Selanjutnya pada tahun 2013 menjadi minyak solar
(45,4%), bensin (44,5%), avtur (6,1%), dan minyak tanah
serta minyak bakar masing-masing sebesar 1,9%.
Final energy consumption by type, during the years 20002013, was dominated by oil fuel (gasoline, diesel oil, IDO,
kerosene, fuel oil, avtur and avgas). During this period, the
total oil fuel consumption increased from 315 million BOE
in 2000 to 399 million BOE in 2013, increased of an average
of 1.83% per year. In 2000, the consumption of diesel oil
has the largest share (38.7%) followed by kerosene (23.4%),
gasoline (23.0%), fuel oil (9.6%), IDO (3%) and avtur (2.2%).
Subsequently in 2013 the order is shifted into diesel oil
(45.4%), gasoline (44.5%), avtur (6.1%), kerosene (1.9%), and
fuel oil (1.9%).
12
1200
1,011
1000
800
764
BBM / Fuel
835
Batubara / Coal
Gas
LPG
600
Listrik / Electricity
Biomassa / Biomass
400
Total
200
0
2000
2005
2010
2013
13
2.3 Ketenagalistrikan
Electricity
14
Jenis Energi/
Energy Type
Satuan /
Unit
Minyak Bumi /
Miliar Barel /
Oil
Billion Barrel
Gas Bumi /
TSCF
Gas
Batubara /
Coal
Miliar Ton /
Billion Ton
Sumber Daya /
Resource
Cadangan /
Reserve
151
Proven
487
Proven
100.3
+Potential
149.3
+Potential
120.5
3.6
7.4
31.35
15
Jenis energi/
Energy type
Sumber daya/
Resources
Cadangan/
Reserve
Kapasitas terpasang/
Installed capacity
16,524 MWe
1,343 MW
Panas bumi/
Geothermal
12,386 MWe
Hidro /
Hydro
75,000 MW
8,671 MW
Biomassa /
Biomass
32,654 MWe
Energi surya/
Solar energy
4.80 kWh/m2/day*
19.2 MW
Energi angin/
Wind energy
970 MW
1.96 MW*
Uranium/
Uranium
3000 MW**
30 MW**
456.7 TSCF**
Shale gas
Gelombang laut/
Wave energy
11
12
Pasang surut/
Tide and tidal power
574 TSCF**
1.995,2 MW
(Potensi Praktis /
Practical Potential)
41.012 MW
(Potensi Praktis /
Practical Potential)
4.800 MW
(Potensi Praktis /
Practical Potential)
16
17
18
19
20
Pembangkit /
Power Plant: 115 GW
Konsumsi Energi /
Energy Consumption: 1.4 TOE/cap
Konsumsi Listrik /
Electricity Consumption: 2500 kWh/cap
Rasio Elektrifikasi : mendekati 100%/
Electrification Ratio : near to 100%
Pembangkit /
Power Plant: 45.3 GW
Konsumsi Energi /
Energy Consumption: 0.64 TOE/cap
Konsumsi Listrik /
Electricity Consumption: 764 kWh/cap
Rasio Elektrifikasi /
Electrification Ratio: 80.4%
2050
2025
Batubara/
2013
Batubara
/ Coal
30%
EBT/
NRE
8%
Batubara
/ Coal
34%
164
MTOE
Gas
Bumi/
Gas
22%
Minyak
Bumi/
Crude
36%
400
MTOE
Gas
Bumi /
Gas
22%
EBT /
NRE
23%
Minyak
Bumi /
Crude
25%
Coal
25%
Gas
Bumi/
Gas
24%
1000
MTOE
EBT/
NRE
31%
Minyak
Bumi/
Crude
20%
21
22
23
24
25
Keterangan / Description
BBM Subsidi /
Fuel Subsidi
Subsidi /
Subsidy
Volume /
Volume
BBM &
LPG/
Fuel & LPG
Listrik /
Electricity
Energi /
Energy [a]
Belanja
Negara/
[b]
National
Budget
Rasio [a] dengan [b] /
Ratio of [a] to [b]
Unit
Juta kl /
Million kl
Triliun
Rp./
Trillion Rp.
Triliun
Rp./
Trillion Rp.
Triliun
Rp//
Trillion Rp.
APBN /
Budget
2013
Realisasi/
Realisation
APBN /
Budget
2014
Realisasi/
Realisation
APBN /
Budget
2015
Realisasi/
Realisation
APBN /
Budget
APBNP /
Draft Budget
40.0
43.3
46.0
48.0
46.0
46.0
46.0
46
137.4
211.9
193.8
210.0
194,9
350.3
291.1
64.7
64.9
94.6
89.8
100.0
89.8
103.8
72.4
73.1
202.3
306.5
257.8
310.0
284.7
453.3
363.5
137.8
Triliun
Rp./
Trillion Rp.
1,418.5
1,548.3
1,657.9
1,726.2
1,816.7
1.876.8
2.039.5
1.994.9
14
19
16
16
16
24
16
Sumber: Data Pokok APBN 2012, 2013, 2014 dan APBN-P 2015 /
Source: National Budget Basic Data 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, National Budget Revision (APBN-P) 2015
During the years 2014-2015 FiT regulation has been set for
hydropower, geothermal, biogas and biomass power plants.
The purchase price of electricity from hydropower plant with
a capacity up to 10 MW differentiated by region, the purchase
period, and connectivity to the network. Price per region
distinguished by a correction factor F which varies between 1
(Java) to 1.6 (Papua and West Papua). Power purchase period
26
is set in 2 periods, i.e 1st year to the 8th year and 9th year to
20th year. While connectivity to the network have different
prices between Medium Voltage (MV) Networks and the Low
Voltage (LV) Network. Lowest purchase price is Rp1,075/kWh
(MV) and the most expensive is Rp2,032/kWh (LV) during
the period of the 1st year to 8th year. The purchase price in
the second period (year 9 to year 20) between Rp750/kWh
(MV) to Rp1,232/kWh (LV). The purchase price of electricity
is regulated by MEMR Regulation 22/2014 as a substitute of
MEMR Regulation 12/2014 which is included the entire cost
of procurement of network connection from the plant to the
grid, without negotiating the price and escalation.
Berbeda dengan FiT PLTP, FiT PLT biomassa dan PLT biogas
ditetapkan seperti pola FiT PLTA dengan harga pembelian
sebesar Rp1.150/kWh (TM) dan Rp1.500/kWh (TR) untuk
PLT biomassa, serta Rp1.050/kWh (TM) dan Rp1.400/kWh
(TR) untuk PLT biogas dikalikan faktor F. Faktor F bervariasi
antara 1 (Pulau Jawa) s.d. 1,6 (Kepulauan Riau, Pulau Papua,
dan pulau lainnya).
Dari berbagai FiT tersebut nampak bahwa FiT PLTA dan FiT
biomassa/biogas mengalami hambatan tingginya biaya
27
28
Tahun/
Year
Produksi/
Production
(Million
Tonnes)
2010
262.48
24.75
64.96
2011
326.65
24.17
78.97
2012
328.53
24.72
84.07
2013
366.04
20.30
74.32
2014
368.90
25.90
95.55
2015
394.37
23.41
92.31
Target (%)
DMO
Volume
(Million Tonnes)
Peraturan / Regulation
Kepmen ESDM No. 1604/2010 /
MEMR Decree No. 1604/2010
Kepmen ESDM No. 2360 K/30/MEM/2010 /
MEMR Decree No. 2360 K/30/MEM.2010
Kepmen ESDM No. 990 K/30/DJB/2012 /
MEMR Decree No. 990 K/30/DJB/2012
Kepmen ESDM No. 2934 K/30/MEM/2012 /
MEMR Decree No. 2934 K/30/MEM/2012
Kepmen ESDM No. 2901 K/30/MEM/2013 /
MEMR Decree No. 2901 K/30/MEM/2013
Kepmen ESDM No. 2805 K/30/MEM/2015 /
MEMR Decree No. 2805 K/30/MEM/2015
29
30
Batubara / Coal
Listrik / Electricity
BBN / Biofuel
Biomassa / Biomass
6,401
2%
5,257
19%
5000
4,237
15%
4000
3,339
3000
1,988
2000
1,151
1000
0
32
22%
2,592
1,274
21%
10%
16%
35%
18%
11%
17%
35%
2013
2016
1,542
14%
14%
13%
18%
9%
17%
14%
18%
34%
36%
2020
2025
38%
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
33
Industri / Industry
Rumah Tangga / Household
Lainnya / Other
6,401
Transportasi / Transportation
Komersial / Commercial
Total / Total
5000
5,257
4%
6%
9%
4,237
29%
4000
3,339
2,592
3000
1,988
2000
1000
0
34
1,542
1,151
1,274
29%
28%
37%
27%
29%
39%
42%
45%
2013
2016
2020
2025
23%
29%
52%
18%
29%
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Energy demand of industrial sector, especially energyintensive industry, is quite large when compared to other user
sector. This is due to the utilization of process technology,
such as boilers, furnaces, motors and equipment, which
require large amounts of fuel. Industrial sector is a productive
sector whose development should be encouraged in order to
improve the national economy. It is estimated that in the
following years, share of oil fuel consumption by industrial
sector will continue to decline if the supporting infrastructure
of other energy such as gas pipelines is sufficient. Natural
gas demand is expected to grow by 5.6%, both as a fuel and
raw materials.
35
M. Tanah / Kerosene
M. Bakar / Fuel Oil
Gas
Listrik / Electricity
Biomassa / Biomass
3334
2678
16%
2,500
2104
28%
2,000
1612
1,500
1212
894
1,000
500
0
646
428
493
29%
42%
29%
43%
30%
42%
2013
2016
2020
42%
16%
29%
4%
8%
40%
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
36
1600
Bensin / Gasoline
Avtur
Listrik / Electricity
Biodiesel
1527
1867
5%
7%
1227
1200
51%
968
753
800
400
584
445
8%
323
366
39%
38%
53%
53%
51%
48%
2013
2016
2020
2025
38%
40%
38%
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
37
500
M. Tanah / Kerosene
Gas
Kayu Bakar / Fuelwood
400
354
38
488
555
21%
405
343
300
100
523
446
339
200
LPG
Listrik / Electricity
TOTAL
62%
364
51%
71%
68%
14%
17%
23%
14%
14%
14%
15%
2013
2016
2020
2025
2%
66%
34%
13%
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
400
350
LPG
Listrik / Electricity
M. Solar / Diesel Oil
Biomassa / Biomass
Gas
M. Tanah / Kerosene
Biodiesel
TOTAL
387
324
300
4%
10%
262
250
199
200
91
100
50
76%
142
150
44
61
12%
75%
76%
78%
2013
2016
2020
37
9%
78%
2025
5%
4%
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
39
250
Bensin / Premium
M. Solar / Diesel Oil
Biodiesel
M. Tanah / Kerosene
M. Bakar / Fuel Oil
TOTAL
258
7%
2%
204
200
155
150
67%
113
100
50
40
80
37
55
7%
24
27
72%
22%
70%
22%
66%
22%
22%
2013
2016
2020
2025
66
23%
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
42
900
800
700
600
Impor / Import
500
Produksi / Production
400
Kebutuhan / Demand
300
Ekspor / Export
200
100
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Gambar 4.2 Ekspor dan impor minyak mentah dan bahan bakar minyak
Figure 4.2 Export and import of crude and oil fuel
50
200
Import Kerosene
Impor / Import
Net Importer
Ekspor / Export
(600)
2049
2047
2045
2043
2041
2039
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
Import FO
Import Gasoline
Import Avtur
Import ADO
-100
Export Kerosene
Export FO
-150
Export Gasoline
-200
(800)
-250
(1,000)
-300
2017
2013
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
-50
(200)
(400)
2015
Export Avtur
Catatan / Note:
FO = M. Bakar
ADO = M. Solar
Export ADO
Gasoline = Bensin
Kerosene = M. Tanah
Net Importer
43
450
400
Produksi CTL / CTL
Production
350
300
Cadangan operasional menjadi 30
hari / Operational stock will become
30 days
250
200
150
100
50
44
2049
2047
2045
2043
2041
2039
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
452
Lainnya / Others
Komersial / Commercial
400
Industri / Industry
Total
291
300
250
Industri / Industry
Rumah Tangga / Household
Lainnya / Others
Transportasi / Transportation
Komersial / Commercial
Pembangkit Listrik / Power Plant
226
200
0.0%
2050 :
451,9 Juta kilo liter /
451.9 Million kilo liters
173
150
132
71
2.0%
8.8%
70.8%
3.9%
99
100
5.1%
5.5%
8.8%
366
Transportasi / Transportation
Juta kilo liter / Million kilo liter
1.1%
77.9%
350
1.5%
2013 :
71,2 Juta kilo liter /
71.2 Million kilo liters
14.5%
80
50
0
2013
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
(a) Pemanfaatan BBC per sektor/ liquid fuels utilization per sector
Industri / Industry
Rumah Tangga / Household
Lainnya / Others
Transportasi / Transportation
Komersial / Commercial
Pembangkit Listrik / Power Plant
45
7,497
7000
6,094
6000
Refinery+OwnUse+Losses
5,154
BCF
5000
Transportasi / Transportation
3,447
3000
2000
Komersial / Commercial
4,084
4000
1,577
1,736
2,238
2,596
Industri / Industry
Total
1000
0
2013
46
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
BCF
(2,000)
(3,000)
2049
2047
2045
2043
2041
2039
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
(1,000)
2013
Impor / Import
Ekspor / Export
Net Importer
(4,000)
(5,000)
(6,000)
47
7000
6000
BCF
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
48
2049
2047
2045
2043
2041
2039
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
4.2.2 LNG
4.2.2 LNG
49
12
10
8
Impor / Import
6
Produksi / Production
Kebutuhan / Demand
Ekspor / Eksport
50
2049
2047
2045
2043
2041
2039
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
4.3 Batubara
Coal
51
1200
1000
Produksi / Production
800
Impor / Import
600
Ekspor / Export
Kebutuhan / Demand
400
200
0
2013
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
52
1200
1000
800
Kebutuhan / Demand
CTL
600
Industri / Industry
Pembangkit / Power Plant
400
200
0
2013
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
53
12.5
12.7
14
12.5
11.4
1000
12.1
936
10.1
7.6
600
10
8
464
400
301
189
200
89
100
0
2013
2016
Surya / Solar
Hidro / Hydro
Biomasa / Biomass
Angin / Wind
CTL
BBN / Biofuel
CBM
Total EBT / NRE Total
54
Nuklir / Nuclear
11.7
625
7.2
12
784
800
Kelautan / Ocean
1,084
Persen / Percentage
1200
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
55
9,388
9000
Panas Bumi/Geothermal
7000
Hidro/Hydro
6,396
6000
Kayubakar
5,069
5000
Biomassa/Biomass
3,881
4000
BBN/Biofuel
Gas
2,829
3000
2000
7,838
8000
1,419
1,622
2,082
Minyak/Oil
Batubara/Coal
1000
Total
0
2013
56
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
100
7.6
7.3
22.7
21.3
90
Persen / Percentage
80
10.1
11.4
12.5
12.7
12.5
12.1
11.7
21.3
18.0
17.1
15.4
15.3
14.7
15.1
28.7
26.6
26.2
26.4
27.0
27.7
70
60
50
35.8
33.8
30.5
Gas
Minyak/Oil
40
Batubara/Coal
30
20
EBT/NRE
33.9
37.6
38.1
42.2
43.8
45.7
2013
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
45.8
46.1
45.5
2040
2045
2050
10
0
57
3,635
3500
2,918
3000
2500
2000
LPG
1,744
1500
1,239
Total
850
1000
500
LNG
2,304
529
337
335
2013
2016
58
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
59
2013
0.5
Ekspor Batubara/
Coal Export
1380.7
Impor Batubara/
Coal Import
178.8
39.5
123.8
40.8
1779.7
Industri/
Industry
0.7
Produksi Batubara/
Coal Production
Ekspor Gas/
Gas Export
233.7
323.2
Transportasi/
Transportation
0.1
516.9
Produksi Gas/
Gas Production
62.9
113.1
45.8
6.4
235.25
296.8
47.3
Rumah Tangga/
Household
Kilang Minyak/
Oil Refinery
301.1
117.4
Ekspor Minyak Bumi/
Crude Oil Export
189.5
Impor BBM/
Oil Fuel Import
28.1
5.2
1.4
Komersial/
Commercial
19.9
Produksi LPG/
LPG Production
23.5
28.1
Impor LPG/
LPG Import
94.79
28.1
EBT / NRE
60
Lainnya/
Other
24.65
220.66
115
PLN & IPP/
Power Plant
2025
0.5
Ekspor Batubara/
Coal Export
1176
Impor Batubara/
Coal Import
359.6
262.8
Industri/
Industry
88.9
2288.1
140.4
Produksi Batubara/
Coal Production
Impor Gas/
Gas Import
6.4
63.7
67.4
Ekspor Gas/
Gas Export
583.3
Transportasi/
Transportation
22.1
470.8
Produksi Gas/
Gas Production
51.2
55.2
11.88
118.9
Rumah Tangga/
Household
Produksi CBM/
CBM Production
402.9
527.2
Kilang Minyak/
Oil Refinery 442.3
12.2
67.6
3.4
43.1
167.4
Komersial/
Commercial
349.5
55.4
Impor BBM/
Petroleum Fuel
Import
33.4
3.6
Produksi LPG/
LPG Production
148.22
26.7
Lainnya/
Other
51.8
753.04
Impor LPG/
LPG Import
Hidro / Hydro
148.81
Panas Bumi/
Geothermal
50.98
EBT Lainnya/
Other NRE
35.5
Biodiesel
61
2050
0.7
Ekspor Batubara/
Coal Export
877.8
Impor Batubara/
Coal Import
1399.9
933.2
Industri/
Industry
427.3
5122.4
Produksi Batubara/
Coal Production
479.6
17.6
882
Ekspor Gas/
Gas Export
Impor Gas/
Gas Import
27.1
1864.4
88.9
Transportasi/
Transportation
429
44.3
Produksi Gas/
Gas Production
67
341.3
36.54
Produksi CBM/
CBM Production
979.5
963.38
Kilang Minyak/
Oil Refinery
953.3
264.5
57.3
16.1
15.6
6.4
32.6
1753.5
Impor BBM/
Petroleum Fuel
Import
Produksi LPG/
LPG Production
109.88
47.1
2826.58
Impor LPG/
LPG Import
Hidro/Hydro
417.18
Panas Bumi/
Geothermal
77.2
Nuklir/Nuclear
303.51
EBT Lainnya/
Other NRE
149.2
Biodiesel
Komersial/
Commercial
258
17.1
349.71
62
Rumah Tangga/
Household
Lainnya/
Other
2,000
TWh
1,500
940
855
1,000
622
500
216
190
264
387
232
2,183
1,889
1,585
1,265
1,151
2,008
1,738
1,458
566
345
0
2013
64
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
65
450
379
400
Gigawatt
350
300
Panasbumi / Geothermal
Hidro / Hydro
196
200
Batubara / Coal
Gas / Gas
133
150
50
257
250
100
Nuklir / Nuclear
320
45
58
Minyak / Oil
84
Total / Total
0
2013
66
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
67
68
Gambar 5.3 Pangsa kapasitas pembangkit listrik dari EBT dan energi fosil
Figure 5.3 Share of power plant capacity from NRE and fossil energy
100
Persen / Percentage
90
80
Nuklir / Nuclear
70
60
50
Hidro / Hydro
40
Batubara / Coal
30
Gas / Gas
20
Minyak / Oil
10
0
2013
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
69
2500
2,183
2000
Nuklir / Nuclear
EBT Lainnya / Other NRE
Panas Bumi / Geothermal
Hidro / Hydro
Batubara /Coal
Gas / Gas
Minyak / Fuel Oil
Total
1,889
TWh
1,585
1500
1,265
940
1000
622
500
216
264
387
0
2013
70
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Gambar 5.5 Pangsa produksi listrik dari EBT dan energi fosil
Figure 5.5 Share of electricity production from NRE and fossil energy
100
90
Persen / Percentage
80
Nuklir / Nuclear
70
60
50
Hidro / Hydro
40
Batubara / Coal
30
Gas
20
Minyak / Oil
10
0
2013
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
71
By 2016, coal still dominates the fuel for power plant with
a percentage of more than 64%, which is about 312 million
BOE (84 million tonnes), followed by gas and oil with a share
of respectively 20% (98 million BOE) and 6% (28 million BOE),
while the rest is filled by hydro (2%), geothermal (7%), as
well as other renewable energy (solar, wind, biomass, landfill,
and biodiesel pp) by 1%. In the year 2025, coal use will reach
753 million BOE (202 million tonnes), or have a share of 64%
as for gas and oil use will approach 148 million BOE (13%)
and 52 million BOE (4%) respectively. On the other hand, the
use of NRE for electricity will reach 222 million BOE (19%).
Furthermore, projected coal use will still dominate the fuel
for power plant in 2050, with a share of more than 68% or a
total of 2,827 million BOE (758 million tonnes). Other fossil
fuels, such as gas, its use will reach 350 million BOE and the
use of fuel oil will only be one-third of gas. The rest is filled
by renewable energy, such as geothermal, hydro, solar, wind,
landfill, ocean, biofuels and biomass pp. In 2050, nuclear
power plant will operate with a share of 2% or around 77
million BOE.
4,159
4000
Mikrohidro/Microhydro
3,599
Sampah/Landfill
3500
Biofuel
3,013
3000
Biomasa/Biomass
Surya/Solar
2,400
2500
2000
Angin/Wind
Panasbumi/Geothermal
1,780
1500
Hidro/Hydro
Nuklir/Nuclear
1,175
Minyak/Oil
1000
500
383
489
745
Gas
Batubara/Coal
Total
0
2013
72
Kelautan/Ocean
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Projection of fuel mix for national power plant during 20132050 periods shows that coal utilization as a fuel for power
plants will continue to dominate with a share between 58%68%. On the other hand, the use of oil fuel will decrease
significantly, from 6% in 2013 to become less than 3% in
2050. Utilization of gas, both in gas combine cycle pp, gas
engine pp and gas steam pp, will decline quite large, from
25% in 2013 to only 8% in 2050. This shows the supply
of natural gas in power generation is less than optimal.
While the use of NRE for electricity generation is predicted
to double, from 11% to 21% at the end of study period. By
2050, it is also expected that other NRE such as solar, landfill,
biomass, wind, and ocean power will be applied for power
generation and can provide a very significant contribution.
100
90
Persen / Percentage
80
70
60
50
Batubara / Coal
40
30
20
10
0
2013
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
73
74
EKONOMI /
ECONOMY
Pertumbuhan / Growth
Efisiensi / Efficiency
Kestabilan / Stability
SOSIAL /
SOCIAL
Pemberdayaan /
Empowerment
Konsultasi / Consultation
Pemerintahan /
Governance
76
LINGKUNGAN /
ENVIRONMENT
Biodiversitas / Biodiversity
Daya Lenting / Resilience
Sumber Daya Alam /
Natural Resources
Pencemaran /
Contamination
77
Baseline emission in 2013 in the BPPT-OEI 2015 and BPPTOEI 2014 is slightly different because of the usage of Tier-2
as EF of oil fuel and the utilization of natural gas as energy
and feedstock is differentiated in OEI-BPPT 2015. This
distinction is made due to natural gas utilization as feedstock
is categorized as IPPU sector emissions.
78
Mitigation Emission
Gambar 6.2 Emisi GRK menurut skenario baseline dan skenario mitigasi
Figure 6.2 GHG emission based on baseline scenario and mitigation scenario
5000
4,528
4500
4000
3,774
3500
3,050
3000
2,401
2500
Fugitive / Fugitive
Pembangkit / Power Plant
2,687
Lainnya / Others
Komersial / Commercial
1,799
1500
1000
536
649
566
883
822
1,282
1,158
IPPU / IPPU
Kilang / Refinery
3,318
2,118
2000
500
3,984
1,601
Transportasi / Transportation
Industri / Industry
Total (Mitigasi / Mitigation)
Total (Baseline)
0
2013
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
79
14
14
13.68
12.1
13.41
12
12
10
10
8.65
6
4
4.07
2.16
2
0
0
2013
2025
CO2e per PDB / CO2e per GDP
80
2030
2040
CO2e per Kapita / CO2e per Capita
16
81
Tabel 6.1 Keuntungan/dampak relatif dari pilihan bahan bakar untuk pembangkit listrik
Table 6.1 Relative benefit/impacts fuels choice for power plant
Atribut /
Attribute
Lebih Menguntungkan /
More Favorable
Kurang Menguntungkan /
Less Favorable
Batubara /
Batubara /
Gas Alam /
Nuklir /
Hidro /
Angin /
Biomassa /
Panas Bumi /
Surya /
Coal
Coal w/CCS*
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Biomass
Geothermal
Solar
Biaya Kontruksi /
Construction Cost
Biaya Listrik /
Electricity Cost
Penggunaan Tanah /
Land Use
Kebutuhan Air /
Water Requirements
Emisi CO2
CO2 Emissions
Emisi Non-CO2
Non-CO2 Emissions
Produksi Limbah
Waste Products
Ketersediaan
Availability
Fleksibilitas
Flexibility
82
Proyeksi anomali suhu rata-rata global selama abad ke21 relatif terhadap tahun 1986 - 2005 dari kombinasi
model komputer dengan model- berbasis proses, untuk
skenario konsentrasi GRK ditampilkan pada Gambar 6.4.
Kisaran kemungkinan ditampilkan sebagai sebuah band
berbayang. Hasil kajian terjadi selama periode 2081-2100
untuk semua skenario yang diberikan sebagai garis vertikal
berwarna, dengan nilai median yang sesuai diberikan
sebagai garis horisontal.
83
The government has set the feed-in tariff (FiT) for renewables.
Utilization of renewable energy will increase the operating
costs of electricity generation of the local system, where the
national generation system operating costs in 2014 reached
1,297 rupiah per kWh. The average cost of diesel operating
system in 2014 reached 3,064 rupiah per kWh and several
renewable energy generation will be more expensive than the
use of diesel when calculated at the exchange rate in 2014
(11,879 rupiah per dollar). Therefore, the government should
consider the operating costs of the local system in the FiT
regulation of renewable energy to lower the operating cost of
the local system so it does not become the infringement on
the use of more expensive power plants, as stipulated in the
regulations of the procurement of goods and services.
84
85
Gambar 6.5 Feed-in tariff pembangkit energi terbarukan dan rata-rata biaya operasi pembangkit
Figure 6.5 Feed-in tariff of renewable power plant and average operation cost of power plant
4000
2014
3500
Sumatera
3000
Jawa-Bali
2500
Kalimantan
2000
Sulawesi
1500
Nusa Tenggara
1297
Maluku
1000
Papua
500
0
TM
TR
PLTA
Keterangan / Note:
86
Maks
PLTS
TM
TR
PLTSa ZW
TM
TR
PLTSaSL
TM
TR
PLTBg
TM
TR
PLTBm
Min
Maks
PLTP
Min
Maks
PLTP RA
87
88
Bab 7. Penutup
Chapter 7. Closing
Penutup
Pertumbuhan PDB dalam BPPT-OEI 2015 diasumsikan ratarata sebesar 6,9% per tahun selama kurun waktu 20132050 dengan mempertimbangkan skenario progressive
reform dari Bappenas. Pertumbuhan ekonomi ini dapat
dicapai dengan adanya dukungan pertumbuhan energi
final sebesar 4,7% per tahun yang meningkat dari 1.151
juta SBM pada tahun 2013 menjadi 1.988 juta SBM pada
tahun 2025 dan 6.401 juta SBM pada tahun 2050. Pangsa
kebutuhan energi final didominasi oleh sektor industri
yang terus meningkat dari 37% pada tahun 2013 menjadi
52% pada tahun 2050, disusul oleh sektor transportasi
yang secara konsisten tetap berada pada 29%, sementara
pangsa sektor rumah tangga menurun tajam dari 29%
(2013) menjadi 6% (2050).
90
Closing
91
Penutup
92
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