TUGAS 2

PEMODELAN KEBUTUHAN PEMBANGUNAN WILAYAH

SJ5221
MATERI :ANALISIS BANGKITAN PERGERAKAN
(MODEL ANALISIS-KORELASI)

Oleh :
Rikki Sofyan Rizal
26916315

PROGRAM STUDI SISTEM DAN TEKNIK JALAN RAYA

FAKULTAS TEKNIK SIPIL DAN LINGKUNGAN
INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG
2017
Soal Latihan Hal 208
Data bangkitan dan tarikan serta parameter sosioekonomi suatu daerah kajian sebagai berikut

Kendaraan Produksi Pertanian Penduduk PDRB

Zona (ribuan smp/tahun) (ribu ton/tahun) (ribuan) (milyar rupiah)
T P D
1 418 313 2.00 914 510
2 326 321 1.70 627 822
3 433 331 1.59 534 930
4 440 347 9.00 947 745
5 154 153 48.00 54 655
6 363 269 782.00 563 662
7 377 277 835.00 576 779
8 381 387 3.00 686 581
9 495 393 623.00 596 997
10 395 291 1,549.00 692 600
11 498 393 2.00 994 590
12 386 381 1.90 687 882
13 473 371 1.58 574 970
14 460 367 9.00 967 765
15 154 153 42.00 54 655
16 343 249 783.00 543 642
17 337 237 824.00 536 739
18 321 327 5.00 626 521
19 415 313 626.00 516 917
20 305 201 1,547.00 602 690
Total 7,474 6,074 7,696 12,288 14,652

Nilai korelasi antar peubah baik peubah bebas (bangkitan atau tarikan) maupun peubah bebas
(produksi pertanian, penduduk, dan PDRB)
Pertanian Penduduk PDRB
1.00
0.85 1.00
Pertanian 0.19 -0.05 1.00
Penduduk 0.85 0.89 -0.16 1.00
PDRB 0.65 0.35 0.32 -0.09 1.00

Dari data tersebut di buatlah model bangkitan dan tarikan pergerakan dengan menggunakan
model analisa-korelasi berbasis zona pada wilayah tersebut. Untuk model bangkitan dan
tarikan dengan 2 peubah bebas yaitu untuk bangkitan penduduk dan PDRB serta untuk tarikan
penduduk dan PDRB. Untuk pemilihan penduduk dan PDRB karena memiliki korelasi dengan
peubah tidak bebas yang tinggi. Serta penduduk dan PDRB memiliki nilai korelasi yang kecil.
Sehingga untuk nilai dapat di hitung dengan memecahkan 3 buah persamaan simultan berikut:

+ + =

+ ( ) + ( )= ( )

+ ( )+ ( ) = ( )

a. Model bangkitan pergerakan

82
Zona

1 418 313 914 510 835,396 466,140 260,100 382,052 213,180

2 326 321 627 822 393,129 515,394 675,684 204,402 267,972
3 433 331 534 930 285,156 496,620 864,900 231,222 402,690
4 440 347 947 745 896,809 705,515 555,025 416,680 327,800
5 154 153 54 655 2,916 35,370 429,025 8,316 100,870
6 363 269 563 662 316,969 372,706 438,244 204,369 240,306
7 377 277 576 779 331,776 448,704 606,841 217,152 293,683
8 381 387 686 581 470,596 398,566 337,561 261,366 221,361
9 495 393 596 997 355,216 594,212 994,009 295,020 493,515
10 395 291 692 600 478,864 415,200 360,000 273,340 237,000
11 498 393 994 590 988,036 586,460 348,100 495,012 293,820
12 386 381 687 882 471,969 605,934 777,924 265,182 340,452
13 473 371 574 970 329,476 556,780 940,900 271,502 458,810
14 460 367 967 765 935,089 739,755 585,225 444,820 351,900
15 154 153 54 655 2,916 35,370 429,025 8,316 100,870
16 343 249 543 642 294,849 348,606 412,164 186,249 220,206
17 337 237 536 739 287,296 396,104 546,121 180,632 249,043
18 321 327 626 521 391,876 326,146 271,441 200,946 167,241
19 415 313 516 917 266,256 473,172 840,889 214,140 380,555
20 305 201 602 690 362,404 415,380 476,100 183,610 210,450
Total 7,474 6,074 12,288 14,652 8,696,994 8,932,134 11,149,278 4,944,328 5,571,724

Dari perhitungan tabel tersebut di dapatkan persamaan sebagai berikut :

20 + 12,288 + 14,652 = 7,474 (1)
12,288 + 8,696,994 + 8,932,134 = 4,944,328 (2)
14,652 + 8,932,134 + 11,149,278 = 5,571,724 (3)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 2, maka di dapatkan

20 + 12,288 + 14,652 = 7,474 12,288
12,288 + 8,696,994 + 8,932,134 = 4,944,328 20
 245,760 + 150,994,944 + 180,043,776 = 91,840,512
245,760 + 173,939,880 + 178,642,680 = 98,886,560
245,760 22,944,936 + 1,401,096 = 7,046,048 (4)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 3, maka di dapatkan

20 + 12,288 + 14,652 = 7,474 14,652
14,652 + 8,932,134 + 11,149,278 = 5,571,724 20

293,040 + 180,043,776 + 214,681,104 = 109,509,046

293,040 + 178,642,680 + 222,985,560 = 111,434,480
245,760 + 1,401,096 + 8,304,456 = 1,925,432 (5)

Eliminasi persamaan 4 dan 5, maka di dapatkan

22,944,936 + 1,401,096 = 7,046,048 1,401,096
1,401,096 8,304,456 = 1,925,432 22,944,936

32,148,058,049,856 + 1,963,070,001,216 = 9,872,189,668,608

32,148,058,049,856 + 190,545,211,434,816 = 44,178,914,012,352
32,148,058,049,856 188,582,141,433,600 = 54,051,103,680,960
54,051,103,680,960
=
188,582,141,433,600
= .

1,401,096 8,304,456 = 1,925,432 (Subtitusi ke persamaan 5)

1,401,096 8,304,456 0.287 = 1,925,432
1,925,432 + 8,304,456 0.287
=
1,401,096
= .

20 + 12,288 + 14,652 = 7,474 (Subtitusi ke persamaan 1)

20 + 12,288 0.325 + 14,652 0.287 = 7,474
7,474 12,288 0.325 14,652 0.287
=
20
= .
Jadi persamaan regresinya adalah = . + . + .
b. Model tarikan pergerakan

Zona

1 418 313 914 510 835,396 466,140 260,100 286,082 159,630

2 326 321 627 822 393,129 515,394 675,684 201,267 263,862
3 433 331 534 930 285,156 496,620 864,900 176,754 307,830
4 440 347 947 745 896,809 705,515 555,025 328,609 258,515
5 154 153 54 655 2,916 35,370 429,025 8,262 100,215
6 363 269 563 662 316,969 372,706 438,244 151,447 178,078
7 377 277 576 779 331,776 448,704 606,841 159,552 215,783
8 381 387 686 581 470,596 398,566 337,561 265,482 224,847
9 495 393 596 997 355,216 594,212 994,009 234,228 391,821
10 395 291 692 600 478,864 415,200 360,000 201,372 174,600
11 498 393 994 590 988,036 586,460 348,100 390,642 231,870
12 386 381 687 882 471,969 605,934 777,924 261,747 336,042
13 473 371 574 970 329,476 556,780 940,900 212,954 359,870
14 460 367 967 765 935,089 739,755 585,225 354,889 280,755
15 154 153 54 655 2,916 35,370 429,025 8,262 100,215
16 343 249 543 642 294,849 348,606 412,164 135,207 159,858
17 337 237 536 739 287,296 396,104 546,121 127,032 175,143
18 321 327 626 521 391,876 326,146 271,441 204,702 170,367
19 415 313 516 917 266,256 473,172 840,889 161,508 287,021
20 305 201 602 690 362,404 415,380 476,100 121,002 138,690
Total 7,474 6,074 12,288 14,652 8,696,994 8,932,134 11,149,278 3,991,000 4,515,012

Dari perhitungan tabel tersebut di dapatkan persamaan sebagai berikut :

20 + 12,288 + 14,652 = 6,074 (1)
12,288 + 8,696,994 + 8,932,134 = 3,991,000 (2)
14,652 + 8,932,134 + 11,149,278 = 4,515,012 (3)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 2, maka di dapatkan

20 + 12,288 + 14,652 = 6,074 12,288
12,288 + 8,696,994 + 8,932,134 = 4,944,328 20

245,760 + 150,994,944 + 180,043,776 = 74,637,312

245,760 + 173,939,880 + 178,642,680 = 79,820,000
245,760 22,944,936 + 1,401,096 = 5,182,688 (4)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 3, maka di dapatkan

20 + 12,288 + 14,652 = 6,074 14,652
14,652 + 8,932,134 + 11,149,278 = 4,515,012 20

293,040 + 180,043,776 + 214,681,104 = 88,996,248

293,040 + 178,642,680 + 222,985,560 = 90,300,240
245,760 + 1,401,096 8,304,456 = 1,303,992 (5)
 Eliminasi persamaan 4 dan 5, maka di dapatkan
22,944,936 + 1,401,096 = 5,182,688 1,401,096
1,401,096 8,304,456 = 1,303,992 22,944,936

32,148,058,049,856 + 1,963,070,001,216 = 7,261,443,426,048

32,148,058,049,856 + 190,545,211,434,816 = 29,920,012,984,512
32,148,058,049,856 188,582,141,433,600 = 37,181,456,410,560
37,181,456,410,560
=
188,582,141,433,600
= .

1,401,096 8,304,456 = 1,303,992 (Subtitusi ke persamaan 5)

1,401,096 8,304,456 0.197 = 1,303,992
1,303,992 + 8,304,456 0.197
=
1,401,096
= .

20 + 12,288 + 14,652 = 6,074 (Subtitusi ke persamaan 1)

20 + 12,288 0.238 + 14,652 0.197 = 6,074
6,074 12,288 0.238 14,652 0.197
=
20
= .
Jadi persamaan regresinya adalah = . + . + .
Soal Latihan Halaman 210
Data bangkitan dan tarikan serta parameter sosioekonomi suatu daerah kajian sebagai berikut
Volume Volume
Bangkitan Tarikan Jumlah Panjang PDRB (juta
Jumlah Hotel perdagangan Pertanian
No Kabupaten Pergerakan Pergerakan Penduduk Jalan (KM) rupiah)
(ribu ton) (ribu ton)

1 Kab 1 13,035,567 11,015,967 1,026,316 100 490 5,206 512 1,153,924

2 Kab 2 8,647,157 7,627,867 1,163,307 300 387 2,518 234 1,071,543
3 Kab 3 38,564,090 31,534,790 3,892,646 1,000 1,571 10,121 1,236 6,564,158
4 Kab 4 17,150,017 11,140,617 1,830,097 325 823 4,282 485 2,611,595
5 Kab 5 14,658,862 12,658,562 1,866,413 225 735 5,304 1,522 1,792,958
6 Kab 6 84,239,366 80,269,466 3,571,886 100 2,446 12,424 616 7,814,143
7 Kab 7 12,539,514 11,579,314 1,867,732 212 753 6,517 770 2,953,897
8 Kab 8 21,590,334 20,580,234 1,992,301 225 862 11,664 877 2,096,317
9 Kab 9 17,650,852 12,690,152 1,585,334 375 1,270 10,705 670 2,167,602
10 Kab 10 7,388,062 5,308,962 1,029,320 389 588 5,817 770 1,896,980
11 Kab 11 20,682,714 17,612,814 1,657,629 556 595 8,985 266 1,177,528
12 Kab 12 10,973,952 9,923,752 1,191,130 223 706 7,127 345 1,243,769
13 Kab 13 8,504,292 7,534,692 971,440 156 514 5,244 456 1,390,587
14 Kab 14 15,707,679 11,747,579 1,637,392 223 527 7,328 567 4,464,716
15 Kab 15 10,677,077 8,657,477 1,311,990 389 533 10,447 320 1,567,729
16 Kab 16 7,769,081 5,769,381 716,852 256 443 3,571 431 1,180,760
17 Kab 17 12,163,886 9,173,286 1,665,355 324 557 6,699 574 2,898,437
18 Kab 18 18,463,903 12,483,103 2,483,771 778 769 13,796 649 6,909,838
19 Kab 19 14,578,144 11,598,044 1,982,352 545 975 18,810 797 4,240,121
20 Kab 20 20,972,140 18,902,940 1,718,532 324 788 8,951 801 3,219,289

Nilai korelasi antar peubah baik peubah bebas (bangkitan atau tarikan) maupun peubah bebas
(Jumlah penduduk, Jumlah hotel, Panjang jalan, Volume perdagangan, Volume pertanian,
PDRB)
NO Peubah
1 Jumlah Bangkitan Oi 1.00
2 Jumlah Tarikan Dd 1.00
3 Jumlah Penduduk 0.76 0.71 1.00
4 Jumlah Hotel 0.70 0.60 0.39 1.00
5 Panjang Jalan (KM) 0.85 0.90 0.82 0.32 1.00
6 Volume Perdagangan (ribu ton) 0.60 0.65 0.39 0.82 0.30 1.00
7 Volume Pertanian (ribu ton) 0.53 0.43 0.34 0.85 0.29 0.85 1.00
8 PDRB (juta rupiah) 0.69 0.59 0.79 0.62 0.65 0.59 0.45 1.00

Dari data di atas buatlah persamaan regresi dengan menggukanan 3 peubah dan 2
peubah.

Penyelesaian
Dari tabel koefisien korelasi untuk tarikan yang memiliki korelasi yang tinggi (mendekati 1)
antar peubah bebas dan tidak bebas yaitu Jumlah Penduduk (X1), Jumlah Hotel (X2), dan
Panjang Jalan (X3). Maka ketiga faktor tersebut di gunakan sebagai peubah bebas untuk
persamaan regresi yang akan di buat. Sedangkan untuk tarikan yang memiliki korelasi yang
tinggi (mendekati 1 yaitu) Jumlah Penduduk (X1), Panjang Jalan (X2), dan Volume
Perdagangan (X3).

a. Model Bangkitan Pergerakan

1) 3 Peubah
Dalam perhitungan model bangkitan pergerakan ini untuk peubah bebas yang di gunakan
adalah Jumlah Penduduk (X1), Jumlah Hoterl (X2), dan Panjang Jalan (X3).
Sehingga untuk nilai dapat di hitung dengan memecahkan 4 buah persamaan simultan berikut:

+ + + =

+ ( ) + ( )+ ( )= ( )

+ ( )+ ( ) + ( )= ( )

+ ( )+ ( )+ ( ) = ( )
Zona

1 13,035,567 11,015,967 1,026,316 100.00 490 1,053,324,531,856 10,000 240,100 102,631,600 502,894,840 49,000 13,378,610,981,172 1,303,556,700 6,387,427,830
2 8,647,157 7,627,867 1,163,307 300.00 387 1,353,283,176,249 90,000 149,769 348,992,100 450,199,809 116,100 10,059,298,268,199 2,594,147,100 3,346,449,759
3 38,564,090 31,534,790 3,892,646 1,000.00 1,571 15,152,692,881,316 1,000,000 2,468,041 3,892,646,000 6,115,346,866 1,571,000 150,116,350,682,140 38,564,090,000 60,584,185,390
4 17,150,017 11,140,617 1,830,097 325.00 823 3,349,255,029,409 105,625 677,329 594,781,525 1,506,169,831 267,475 31,386,194,661,649 5,573,755,525 14,114,463,991
5 14,658,862 12,658,562 1,866,413 225.00 735 3,483,497,486,569 50,625 540,225 419,942,925 1,371,813,555 165,375 27,359,490,602,006 3,298,243,950 10,774,263,570
6 84,239,366 80,269,466 3,571,886 100.00 2,446 12,758,369,596,996 10,000 5,982,916 357,188,600 8,736,833,156 244,600 300,893,412,064,276 8,423,936,600 206,049,489,236
7 12,539,514 11,579,314 1,867,732 212.00 753 3,488,422,823,824 44,944 567,009 395,959,184 1,406,402,196 159,636 23,420,451,562,248 2,658,376,968 9,442,254,042
8 21,590,334 20,580,234 1,992,301 225.00 862 3,969,263,274,601 50,625 743,044 448,267,725 1,717,363,462 193,950 43,014,444,018,534 4,857,825,150 18,610,867,908
9 17,650,852 12,690,152 1,585,334 375.00 1,270 2,513,283,891,556 140,625 1,612,900 594,500,250 2,013,374,180 476,250 27,982,495,804,568 6,619,069,500 22,416,582,040
10 7,388,062 5,308,962 1,029,320 389.00 588 1,059,499,662,400 151,321 345,744 400,405,480 605,240,160 228,732 7,604,679,977,840 2,873,956,118 4,344,180,456
11 20,682,714 17,612,814 1,657,629 556.00 595 2,747,733,901,641 309,136 354,025 921,641,724 986,289,255 330,820 34,284,266,525,106 11,499,588,984 12,306,214,830
12 10,973,952 9,923,752 1,191,130 223.00 706 1,418,790,676,900 49,729 498,436 265,621,990 840,937,780 157,438 13,071,403,445,760 2,447,191,296 7,747,610,112
13 8,504,292 7,534,692 971,440 156.00 514 943,695,673,600 24,336 264,196 151,544,640 499,320,160 80,184 8,261,409,420,480 1,326,669,552 4,371,206,088
14 15,707,679 11,747,579 1,637,392 223.00 527 2,681,052,561,664 49,729 277,729 365,138,416 862,905,584 117,521 25,719,627,933,168 3,502,812,417 8,277,946,833
15 10,677,077 8,657,477 1,311,990 389.00 533 1,721,317,760,100 151,321 284,089 510,364,110 699,290,670 207,337 14,008,218,253,230 4,153,382,953 5,690,882,041
16 7,769,081 5,769,381 716,852 256.00 443 513,876,789,904 65,536 196,249 183,514,112 317,565,436 113,408 5,569,281,253,012 1,988,884,736 3,441,702,883
17 12,163,886 9,173,286 1,665,355 324.00 557 2,773,407,276,025 104,976 310,249 539,575,020 927,602,735 180,468 20,257,188,369,530 3,941,099,064 6,775,284,502
18 18,463,903 12,483,103 2,483,771 778.00 769 6,169,118,380,441 605,284 591,361 1,932,373,838 1,910,019,899 598,282 45,860,106,818,213 14,364,916,534 14,198,741,407
19 14,578,144 11,598,044 1,982,352 545.00 975 3,929,719,451,904 297,025 950,625 1,080,381,840 1,932,793,200 531,375 28,899,012,914,688 7,945,088,480 14,213,690,400
20 20,972,140 18,902,940 1,718,532 324.00 788 2,953,352,235,024 104,976 620,944 556,804,368 1,354,203,216 255,312 36,041,293,698,480 6,794,973,360 16,526,046,320
Total 375,956,689 317,808,999 35,161,795 7,025 16,332 74,032,957,061,979 3,415,813 17,674,980 14,062,275,447 34,756,565,990 6,044,263 867,187,237,254,299 134,731,564,987 449,619,489,638
20 + 35,161,795 + 7,025 + 16,332 = 375,956,689 (1)
35,161,795 + 74,032,957,061,979 + 14,062,275,447 + 34,756,565,990 = 867,187,237,254,299 (2)
7,025 + 6,044,263 + 3,415,813 + 6,044,263 = 134,731,564,987 (3)
16,332 + 4,872,431 + 6,044,263 + 17,674,980 = 449,619,489,638 (4)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 2, maka di dapatkan

20 + 35,161,795 + 7,025 + 16,332 = 375,956,689 X1
35,161,795 + 74,032,957,061,979 + 14,062,275,447 + 34,756,565,990 = 867,187,237,254,299 X 0.00000057

20 + 35,161,795 + 7,025 + 16,332 = 375,956,689

20 + 42,109,885 + 7,999 + 19,770 = 493,255,385
6,948,090 974 3,438 = 117,298,696 (5)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 3, maka di dapatkan

20 + 35,161,795 + 7,025 + 16,332 = 375,956,689 X 1

7,025 + 6,044,263 + 3,415,813 + 6,044,263 = 134,731,564,987 X 0.0028

20 + 35,161,795 + 7,025 + 16,332 = 375,956,689

20 + 40,034,948 + 9,725 + 17,208 = 383,577,409
4,873,153 2,700 876 = 7,620,720 (6)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 4, maka di dapatkan

20 + 35,161,795 + 7,025 + 16,332 = 375,956,689 X 1

16,332 + 4,872,431 + 6,044,263 + 17,674,980 = 449,619,489,638 X 0.0012

20 + 35,161,795 + 7,025 + 16,332 = 375,956,689

20 + 42,562,535 + 7,402 + 21,645 = 550,599,424
7,400,000 377 5,313 = 174,642,735 (7)

Eliminasi Persamaan 5 dan 6

6,948,090 974 3,438 = 117,298,696 0.7014
 4,873,153 2,700 876 = 7,620,720 1

4,873,153 683 2,411 = 82,269,298

4,873,153 2,700 876 = 7,620,720
337 2,017 1,535 = 74,648,578 (8)

Eliminasi Persamaan 5 dan 7

6,948,090 974 3,438 = 117,298,696 1
7,400,000 377 5,313 = 174,642,735 0.9388

6,948,090 974 3,438 = 117,298,696

6,948,090 354 4,988 = 163,961,097
337 620 1,550 = 46,662,400 (9)

Eliminasi Persamaan 8 dan 9

2,017 1,535 = 74,648,578 1
620 1,550 = 46,662,400 3.2535

2,017 1,535 = 74,648,578

2,017 5,043 = 151,815,948
5,190 3,508 = 77,167,370
77,167,370
= = , .
3,508

Subtiusi nilai ke persamaan 8, maka didapatkan

2,017 1,535 = 74,648,578
74,648,578 + (1,535 ( , . ))
=
2,017
= , .

Subtiusi nilai ke persamaan 7, maka didapatkan

7,400,000 377 5,313 = 174,642,735
7,400,000 377 (20,270.921) 5,313 (21,995.302) = 174,642,735
7,400,000 7,636,919.46 116,852,234.18 = 174,642,735
 7,400,000 109,215,314.7 = 174,642,735
174,642,735 + 109,215,314.7
=
7,400,000
= .

Subtiusi nilai , ke persamaan 1, maka didapatkan

20 + 35,161,795 + 7,025 + 16,332 = 375,956,689
20 + 35,161,795 8.841 + 7,025 20,270.921 + 16,332 21,995.302 = 375,956,689
20 310,853,452 + 142,403,223 359,227,280 = 375,956,689
20 + 527,677,509 = 375,956,689
375,956,689 527,677,509
=
20
= , , .

Jadi persamaan regresi yang di dapat adalah :

= , , . + . , . + , .
Dari hasil tersebut terlihat bahawa peubah bebas yang dominan dalam nenetukan besarnya
tarikan adalah faktor Panjang Jalan, Volume Pertanian, dan terakhir adalah jumlah Hotel,
terbukti dari hasil koefisien regresi yang dihasilkan.

2) 2 Peubah
Untuk 2 peubah yang di gunakan adalah Jumlah Penduduk (X1) dan Panjang Jalan (X2)

Zona

1 13,035,567 11,015,967 1,026,316 490 1,053,324,531,856 502,894,840 240,100 13,378,610,981,172 6,387,427,830

2 8,647,157 7,627,867 1,163,307 387 1,353,283,176,249 450,199,809 149,769 10,059,298,268,199 3,346,449,759
3 38,564,090 31,534,790 3,892,646 1,571 15,152,692,881,316 6,115,346,866 2,468,041 150,116,350,682,140 60,584,185,390
4 17,150,017 11,140,617 1,830,097 823 3,349,255,029,409 1,506,169,831 677,329 31,386,194,661,649 14,114,463,991
5 14,658,862 12,658,562 1,866,413 735 3,483,497,486,569 1,371,813,555 540,225 27,359,490,602,006 10,774,263,570
6 84,239,366 80,269,466 3,571,886 2,446 12,758,369,596,996 8,736,833,156 5,982,916 300,893,412,064,276 206,049,489,236
7 12,539,514 11,579,314 1,867,732 753 3,488,422,823,824 1,406,402,196 567,009 23,420,451,562,248 9,442,254,042
8 21,590,334 20,580,234 1,992,301 862 3,969,263,274,601 1,717,363,462 743,044 43,014,444,018,534 18,610,867,908
9 17,650,852 12,690,152 1,585,334 1,270 2,513,283,891,556 2,013,374,180 1,612,900 27,982,495,804,568 22,416,582,040
10 7,388,062 5,308,962 1,029,320 588 1,059,499,662,400 605,240,160 345,744 7,604,679,977,840 4,344,180,456
11 20,682,714 17,612,814 1,657,629 595 2,747,733,901,641 986,289,255 354,025 34,284,266,525,106 12,306,214,830
12 10,973,952 9,923,752 1,191,130 706 1,418,790,676,900 840,937,780 498,436 13,071,403,445,760 7,747,610,112
13 8,504,292 7,534,692 971,440 514 943,695,673,600 499,320,160 264,196 8,261,409,420,480 4,371,206,088
14 15,707,679 11,747,579 1,637,392 527 2,681,052,561,664 862,905,584 277,729 25,719,627,933,168 8,277,946,833
15 10,677,077 8,657,477 1,311,990 533 1,721,317,760,100 699,290,670 284,089 14,008,218,253,230 5,690,882,041
16 7,769,081 5,769,381 716,852 443 513,876,789,904 317,565,436 196,249 5,569,281,253,012 3,441,702,883
17 12,163,886 9,173,286 1,665,355 557 2,773,407,276,025 927,602,735 310,249 20,257,188,369,530 6,775,284,502
18 18,463,903 12,483,103 2,483,771 769 6,169,118,380,441 1,910,019,899 591,361 45,860,106,818,213 14,198,741,407
19 14,578,144 11,598,044 1,982,352 975 3,929,719,451,904 1,932,793,200 950,625 28,899,012,914,688 14,213,690,400
20 20,972,140 18,902,940 1,718,532 788 2,953,352,235,024 1,354,203,216 620,944 36,041,293,698,480 16,526,046,320
Total 375,956,689 317,808,999 35,161,795 16,332 74,032,957,061,979 34,756,565,990 17,674,980 867,187,237,254,299 449,619,489,638
 Dari perhitungan tabel tersebut di dapatkan persamaan sebagai berikut :
20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 = 375,956,689 (1)
35,161,795 + 74,032,957,061,979 + 34,756,565,990 = 134,731,564,987 (2)
16,332 + 34,756,565,990 + 17,674,980 = 449,619,489,638 (3)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 2, maka di dapatkan

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 = 375,956,689 1
35,161,795 + 74,032,957,061,979 + 34,756,565,990 = 134,731,564,987 0.0000057

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 = 375,956,689

20 + 42,109,885 + 19,770 = 493,255,385
6,948,090 3,438 = 117,298,696 (4)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 3, maka di dapatkan

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 = 375,956,689 1
16,332 + 34,756,565,990 + 17,674,980 = 449,619,489,638 0.00122

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 = 375,956,689

20 + 42,562,535 + 21,645 = 550,599,424
7,400,740 5,313 = 174,642,735 (5)

Eliminasi persamaan 4 dan 5, maka di dapatkan

6,948,090 3,438 = 117,298,696 1.06515
7,400,740 5,313 = 174,642,735 1

7,400,740 3,661 = 124,940,401

7,400,740 5,313 = 174,642,735
32,148 1,651 = 49,702,334
, ,
= ,

= , .

7,400,740 5,313 = 174,642,735 (Subtitusi ke persamaan 5)

7,400,740 5,314 30,101.67 = 174,642,735
174,642,735 + 5,314 30,101.67
=
7,400,000
= .
20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 = 375,956,689 (Subtitusi ke persamaan 1)
20 + 35,161,795 1.99 + 16,332 30,101.67 = 375,956,689
375,956,689 + 69,958,491.62 491,620,417
=
20
= , , .
Jadi persamaan regresinya adalah = , , . + . + , .

b. Model Tarikan Pergerakan

1) 3 Peubah
Untuk tarikan yang memiliki korelasi yang tinggi (mendekati 1 yaitu) Jumlah Penduduk
(X1), Panjang Jalan (X2), dan Volume Perdagangan (X3).
Zona

1 13,035,567 11,015,967 1,026,316 490 5,206 1,053,324,531,856 240,100 27,102,436 502,894,840 5,343,001,096 2,550,940 13,378,610,981,172 6,387,427,830 67,863,161,802
2 8,647,157 7,627,867 1,163,307 387 2,518 1,353,283,176,249 149,769 6,340,324 450,199,809 2,929,207,026 974,466 10,059,298,268,199 3,346,449,759 21,773,541,326
3 38,564,090 31,534,790 3,892,646 1,571 10,121 15,152,692,881,316 2,468,041 102,434,641 6,115,346,866 39,397,470,166 15,900,091 150,116,350,682,140 60,584,185,390 390,307,154,890
4 17,150,017 11,140,617 1,830,097 823 4,282 3,349,255,029,409 677,329 18,335,524 1,506,169,831 7,836,475,354 3,524,086 31,386,194,661,649 14,114,463,991 73,436,372,794
5 14,658,862 12,658,562 1,866,413 735 5,304 3,483,497,486,569 540,225 28,132,416 1,371,813,555 9,899,454,552 3,898,440 27,359,490,602,006 10,774,263,570 77,750,604,048
6 84,239,366 80,269,466 3,571,886 2,446 12,424 12,758,369,596,996 5,982,916 154,355,776 8,736,833,156 44,377,111,664 30,389,104 300,893,412,064,276 206,049,489,236 1,046,589,883,184
7 12,539,514 11,579,314 1,867,732 753 6,517 3,488,422,823,824 567,009 42,471,289 1,406,402,196 12,172,009,444 4,907,301 23,420,451,562,248 9,442,254,042 81,720,012,738
8 21,590,334 20,580,234 1,992,301 862 11,664 3,969,263,274,601 743,044 136,048,896 1,717,363,462 23,238,198,864 10,054,368 43,014,444,018,534 18,610,867,908 251,829,655,776
9 17,650,852 12,690,152 1,585,334 1,270 10,705 2,513,283,891,556 1,612,900 114,597,025 2,013,374,180 16,971,000,470 13,595,350 27,982,495,804,568 22,416,582,040 188,952,370,660
10 7,388,062 5,308,962 1,029,320 588 5,817 1,059,499,662,400 345,744 33,837,489 605,240,160 5,987,554,440 3,420,396 7,604,679,977,840 4,344,180,456 42,976,356,654
11 20,682,714 17,612,814 1,657,629 595 8,985 2,747,733,901,641 354,025 80,730,225 986,289,255 14,893,796,565 5,346,075 34,284,266,525,106 12,306,214,830 185,834,185,290
12 10,973,952 9,923,752 1,191,130 706 7,127 1,418,790,676,900 498,436 50,794,129 840,937,780 8,489,183,510 5,031,662 13,071,403,445,760 7,747,610,112 78,211,355,904
13 8,504,292 7,534,692 971,440 514 5,244 943,695,673,600 264,196 27,499,536 499,320,160 5,094,231,360 2,695,416 8,261,409,420,480 4,371,206,088 44,596,507,248
14 15,707,679 11,747,579 1,637,392 527 7,328 2,681,052,561,664 277,729 53,699,584 862,905,584 11,998,808,576 3,861,856 25,719,627,933,168 8,277,946,833 115,105,871,712
15 10,677,077 8,657,477 1,311,990 533 10,447 1,721,317,760,100 284,089 109,139,809 699,290,670 13,706,359,530 5,568,251 14,008,218,253,230 5,690,882,041 111,543,423,419
16 7,769,081 5,769,381 716,852 443 3,571 513,876,789,904 196,249 12,752,041 317,565,436 2,559,878,492 1,581,953 5,569,281,253,012 3,441,702,883 27,743,388,251
17 12,163,886 9,173,286 1,665,355 557 6,699 2,773,407,276,025 310,249 44,876,601 927,602,735 11,156,213,145 3,731,343 20,257,188,369,530 6,775,284,502 81,485,872,314
18 18,463,903 12,483,103 2,483,771 769 13,796 6,169,118,380,441 591,361 190,329,616 1,910,019,899 34,266,104,716 10,609,124 45,860,106,818,213 14,198,741,407 254,728,005,788
19 14,578,144 11,598,044 1,982,352 975 18,810 3,929,719,451,904 950,625 353,816,100 1,932,793,200 37,288,041,120 18,339,750 28,899,012,914,688 14,213,690,400 274,214,888,640
20 20,972,140 18,902,940 1,718,532 788 8,951 2,953,352,235,024 620,944 80,120,401 1,354,203,216 15,382,579,932 7,053,388 36,041,293,698,480 16,526,046,320 187,721,625,140
Total 375,956,689 317,808,999 35,161,795 16,332 165,516 74,032,957,061,979 17,674,980 1,667,413,858 34,756,565,990 322,986,680,022 153,033,360 867,187,237,254,299 449,619,489,638 3,604,384,237,578
20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 + 165,516 = 375,956,689 (1)
35,161,795 + 74,032,957,061,979 + 34,756,565,990 + 322,986,680,022 = 867,187,237,254,299 (2)
16,332 + 34,756,565,990 + 17,674,980 + 153,033,360 = 449,619,489,638 (3)
165,516 + 322,986,680,022 + 153,033,360 + 1,667,413,858 = 3,604,384,237,578 (4)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 2, maka di dapatkan

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 + 165,516 = 375,956,689 X1
35,161,795 + 74,032,957,061,979 + 34,756,565,990 + 322,986,680,022 = 867,187,237,254,299 X 0.00000057

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 + 165,516 = 375,956,689 X 1

20 + 42,109,885 + 19,770 + 183,715 = 493,255,385 X 0.0012

6,948,090 3,438 18,199 = 117,298,696 (5)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 3, maka di dapatkan

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 + 165,516 = 375,956,689
16,332 + 34,756,565,990 + 17,674,980 + 153,033,360 = 449,619,489,638

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 + 165,516 = 375,956,689 X 1

20 + 42,562,535 + 21,645 + 187,403 = 550,599,424 X 1.7972

7,400,740 5,313 21,887 = 174,642,735 (6)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 4, maka di dapatkan

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 + 165,516 = 375,956,689 X 1

165,516 + 322,986,680,022 + 153,033,360 + 1,667,413,858 = 3,604,384,237,578 X 0.0028

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 + 165,516 = 375,956,689

20 + 39,027,850 + 18,492 + 201,481 = 435,533,029
3,866,055 2,160 35,965 = 59,576,340 (7)

Eliminasi Persamaan 5 dan 7

6,948,090 3,438 18,199 = 117,298,696 1.0651
7,400,740 5,313 21,887 = 174,642,735 1
 7,400,740 3,661 19,384 = 124,940,401
7,400,740 5,313 21,887 = 174,642,735
337 1,651 2,503 = 49,702,334 (8)

Eliminasi Persamaan 5 dan 7

6,948,090 3,438 18,199 = 117,298,696 1
3,866,055 2,160 35,965 = 59,576,340 1.7972

6,948,090 3,438 18,199 = 117,298,696

6,948,090 3,881 64,636 = 107,070,846
337 444 46,437 = 10,227,851 (9)

Eliminasi Persamaan 8 dan 9

1,651 2,503 = 49,702,334 1
444 46,437 = 10,227,851 3.72

1,651 2,503 = 49,702,334

444 172,745 = 38,047,259
5,190 170,242 = 87,749,593
87,749,593
= = .
170,242

Subtiusi nilai ke persamaan 8, maka didapatkan

1,651 2,503 = 49,702,334
49,702,334 + (2,503 (515.439))
=
2,503
= , .

Subtiusi nilai ke persamaan 7, maka didapatkan

3,866,055 2,160 35,965 = 59,576,340
3,866,055 2,160 30,883.010 35,965 (515.439) = 59,576,340
3,866,055 66,697,099.49 + 18,537,612.82 = 59,576,340
 3,866,055 48,159,486.66 = 59,576,340
59,576,340 + 48,159,486.66
=
3,866,055
= .

Subtiusi nilai , ke persamaan 1, maka didapatkan

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 + 165,516 = 375,956,689
20 + 35,161,795 2.953 + 16,332 30,883.010 + 165,516 (515.439) = 375,956,689
20 + 103,836,353 + 504,381,311 85,313,453 = 375,956,689
20 + 522,904,211 = 375,956,689
375,956,689 522,904,211
=
20
= , , .

Jadi persamaan regresi yang di dapat adalah :

= , , . + . + , . .
Dari hasil tersebut terlihat bahawa peubah bebas yang dominan dalam nenetukan besarnya
tarikan adalah faktor Panjang Jalan, Jumlah Penduduk, dan terakhir adalah volume
perdagangan, terbukti dari hasil koefisien regresi yang dihasilkan.

2) 2 Peubah
Untuk 2 peubah di ambil peubah bebasnya yaitu Jumlah Penduduk (X1) dan Panjang Jalan
(X2)

Zona

1 13,035,567 11,015,967 1,026,316 490 1,053,324,531,856 502,894,840 240,100 11,305,863,187,572 5,397,823,830

2 8,647,157 7,627,867 1,163,307 387 1,353,283,176,249 450,199,809 149,769 8,873,551,076,169 2,951,984,529
3 38,564,090 31,534,790 3,892,646 1,571 15,152,692,881,316 6,115,346,866 2,468,041 122,753,774,154,340 49,541,155,090
4 17,150,017 11,140,617 1,830,097 823 3,349,255,029,409 1,506,169,831 677,329 20,388,409,749,849 9,168,727,791
5 14,658,862 12,658,562 1,866,413 735 3,483,497,486,569 1,371,813,555 540,225 23,626,104,678,106 9,304,043,070
6 84,239,366 80,269,466 3,571,886 2,446 12,758,369,596,996 8,736,833,156 5,982,916 286,713,381,832,876 196,339,113,836
7 12,539,514 11,579,314 1,867,732 753 3,488,422,823,824 1,406,402,196 567,009 21,627,055,295,848 8,719,223,442
8 21,590,334 20,580,234 1,992,301 862 3,969,263,274,601 1,717,363,462 743,044 41,002,020,778,434 17,740,161,708
9 17,650,852 12,690,152 1,585,334 1,270 2,513,283,891,556 2,013,374,180 1,612,900 20,118,129,430,768 16,116,493,040
10 7,388,062 5,308,962 1,029,320 588 1,059,499,662,400 605,240,160 345,744 5,464,620,765,840 3,121,669,656
11 20,682,714 17,612,814 1,657,629 595 2,747,733,901,641 986,289,255 354,025 29,195,511,258,006 10,479,624,330
12 10,973,952 9,923,752 1,191,130 706 1,418,790,676,900 840,937,780 498,436 11,820,478,719,760 7,006,168,912
13 8,504,292 7,534,692 971,440 514 943,695,673,600 499,320,160 264,196 7,319,501,196,480 3,872,831,688
14 15,707,679 11,747,579 1,637,392 527 2,681,052,561,664 862,905,584 277,729 19,235,391,873,968 6,190,974,133
15 10,677,077 8,657,477 1,311,990 533 1,721,317,760,100 699,290,670 284,089 11,358,523,249,230 4,614,435,241
16 7,769,081 5,769,381 716,852 443 513,876,789,904 317,565,436 196,249 4,135,792,308,612 2,555,835,783
17 12,163,886 9,173,286 1,665,355 557 2,773,407,276,025 927,602,735 310,249 15,276,777,706,530 5,109,520,302
18 18,463,903 12,483,103 2,483,771 769 6,169,118,380,441 1,910,019,899 591,361 31,005,169,221,413 9,599,506,207
19 14,578,144 11,598,044 1,982,352 975 3,929,719,451,904 1,932,793,200 950,625 22,991,405,719,488 11,308,092,900
20 20,972,140 18,902,940 1,718,532 788 2,953,352,235,024 1,354,203,216 620,944 32,485,307,284,080 14,895,516,720
Total 375,956,689 317,808,999 35,161,795 16,332 74,032,957,061,979 34,756,565,990 17,674,980 746,696,769,487,369 394,032,902,208
 Dari perhitungan tabel tersebut di dapatkan persamaan sebagai berikut :
20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 = 317,808,999 (1)
35,161,795 + 74,032,957,061,979 + 34,756,565,990 = 746,696,769,487,369 (2)
16,332 + 34,756,565,990 + 17,674,980 = 394,032,902,208 (3)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 2, maka di dapatkan

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 = 317,808,999
35,161,795 + 74,032,957,061,979 + 34,756,565,990 = 746,696,769,487,369

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 = 317,808,999

20 + 42,109,885 + 19,770 = 424,720,507
6,948,090 3,438 = 106,911,508 (4)

Eliminasi persamaan 1 dan 3, maka di dapatkan

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 = 317,808,999 1
16,332 + 34,756,565,990 + 17,674,980 = 394,032,902,208 0.001225

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 = 317,808,999

20 + 42,562,535 + 21,645 = 482,528,658
7,400,740 5,313 = 164,719,659 (5)

Eliminasi persamaan 4 dan 5, maka di dapatkan

6,948,090 3,438 = 106,911,508 1
7,400,740 5,313 = 164,719,659 0.9399

6,948,090 3,438 = 106,911,508

6,948,090 4,988 = 154,644,944
32,148 1,550 = 47,733,436
47,733,436
=
1,550
= , .

7,400,740 5,313 = 164,719,659 (Subtitusi ke persamaan 5)

7,400,740 5,313 30,792.59 = 174,642,735
174,642,735 + 5,313 30,792.59
=
7,400,740
 = .

20 + 35,161,795 + 16,332 = 317,808,999 (Subtitusi ke persamaan 1)

20 + 35,161,795 0.153 + 16,332 30,792.59 = 317,808,999
375,956,689 5,373,421.21 502,904,515
=
20
= , , .
Jadi persamaan regresinya adalah = , , + . + , .