Sesi 7:
Teori Probabilitas Total (Total Probability Theorem)
18 Oktober 2013
Prof. Dr. Masyhur Irsyam
Pelat lantai
184 194
20
174
244
23
4 275
1
10/18/2013
Mmin = 4.4
Mmax = 7.3
log m = 4.4 – 1.0 M
=a–b.M
fm R0
M min M max
R1
2
10/18/2013
Probability Jarak R
3
10/18/2013
Ra
Rmin
R max
Rmin
R1
PR1=
R max
PR1
R1
4
10/18/2013
Rmin
R2 PR2=
R max
PR2 PR1
R1
R2
Rmin
R1
R max
Total = 100%
PR3 PR2
PR4 PR1
R1
R2
R3
R4
P = Probability terjadi kejadian gempa dng Jarak Ra
5
10/18/2013
Sumber Gempa
1
R1 R2 R3
3 R7 R8 R9
6
10/18/2013
Ketidakpastian Magnitudo:
Probability Magnitude M
Distribution Function
Normal Distribution
-~ +~ -~
Value
Number of events
Magnitude Mmin=5
Mmin Mmax
7
10/18/2013
5.0 34 35
30
5.5 17
25
6.0 8 20
6.5 5 15
10
7.0 3
5
7.5 2 0
M
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
8
10/18/2013
Probability Magnitude
Probability of Magnitude, PM
Total = 100%
PM1
PM2
PM3
PM4
M1 M2 M3 M4
Mmin Mmax
min
254
4
184 194
20
174
244
23
4 275
9
10/18/2013
Jumlah Kejadian
Sumber 1
Sumber 2
Sumber 3
M (Magnitude)
Probability Jarak R
Probability Madnitude M
10
10/18/2013
Total = 100% R3
R2
PM1
PM2 R1 R0
PM3 Rmin
PM4
M1 M2 M3 M4
Mmax
Mmin RRmax
1
Total = 100%
PR
Total = 100% R3
R2
PM1
PM2 R1 R0
PM3 Rmin
PM4
M1 M2 M3 M4
Mmin M max
RRmax
1
Magnitude M
Total = 100%
M1, M2, M3, M4,
PM1 PM2 PM3 PM4
R1, PR1 x PR1 x PR1 x PR1 x
PR1 PM1 PM2 PM3 PM4
Jarak R
Probability kejadian gempa dng M dari Mmin sampai Mmax dan R dari Rmin sampai Rmax
11
10/18/2013
Probability Jarak R
Probability Madnitude M
Ketidakpastian Atenuasi
2000
Ms = 7.0
1000
Mean
500
Peak Horizontal Acceleration - cm/sec 2
200
100
50
20
USA, etc.
Japan
10
12
10/18/2013
2000 M
Ms = 7.0
1000
Mean
500
Peak Horizontal Acceleration - cm/sec 2
0.41 0.41g
200
100
50
a*
Ditentukan
Mean=
PHA (Peak Horizontal Acceleration)
13
10/18/2013
Total = 100% R3
R2
PM1
PM2 R1 R0
PM3 Rmin
PM4
M1 M2 M3 M4
Mmin M max
RRmax
1
Total = 100%
PR
Total = 100% R3
R2
PM1
PM2 R1 R0
PM3 Rmin
PM4
M1 M2 M3 M4
Mmin M max
RRmax
1
Total = 100%
PR
14
10/18/2013
a (g) M1 M2 M3 M4
R1
R2
R3
M4
M3
M2
M1
R (km)
R1 R2 R3
Total = 100% R3
R2
PM1
PM2 R1 R0
PM3 Rmin
PM4
M1 M2 M3 M4
Mmin M max
RRmax
1
Magnitude M
Total = 100%
M1, M2, M3, M4,
PM1 PM2 PM3 PM4
R1, PR1 x PR1 x PR1 x PR1 x
PR1 PM1 PM2 PM3 PM4
Jarak R
Probability kejadian gempa dng M dari Mmin sampai Mmax dan R dari Rmin sampai Rmax
15
10/18/2013
a (g) M1 M2 M3 M4
R1
R2
R3
M4
M3
M2
M1
R (km)
R1 R2 R3
a (g) M1 M2 M3 M4
R1
R2
R3
M4
M3
M2
M1
R (km)
R1 R2 R3
16
10/18/2013
a (g) M1 M2 M3 M4
R1
R2
R3
M4
M3
M2
M1
R (km)
R1 R2 R3
Total = 100% R3
R2
PM1
PM2 R1 R0
PM3 Rmin
PM4
M1 M2 M3 M4
Mmin M max
RRmax
1
Magnitude M
Total = 100%
M1, M2, M3, M4,
PM1 PM2 PM3 PM4
R1, PR1 x PR1 x PR1 x PR1 x
PR1 PM1 PM2 PM3 PM4
Jarak R
Probability kejadian gempa dng M dari Mmin sampai Mmax dan R dari Rmin sampai Rmax
17
10/18/2013
Magnitude M
R1,
PR1
Jarak R
R2,
PR2
R3,
PR3
a (g) M1 M2 M3 M4
R1
R2
P(M4,R1: a>a*)
R3
M4 P(M3,R1: a>a*)
P(M2,R1: a>a*)
P(M1,R1: a>a*)
M3
a*
M2
M1
R (km)
R1 R2 R3
18
10/18/2013
a (g) M1 M2 M3 M4
R1
R2
R3
P(M4,R2: a>a*)
M4
P(M3,R2: a>a*)
P(M2,R2: a>a*)
M3 P(M1,R2: a>a*)
a*
M2
M1
R (km)
R1 R2 R3
a (g) M1 M2 M3 M4
R1
R2
R3
M4 P(M4,R3: a>a*)
P(M3,R3: a>a*)
M3 P(M2,R3: a>a*)
P(M1,R3: a>a*)
a*
M2
M1
R (km)
R1 R2 R3
19
10/18/2013
Magnitude M
Jarak R
Magnitude M
20
10/18/2013
PMi PRi
Rmin
Site
R
Ri
21
10/18/2013
? Jumlah Kejadian
Probability Tahun
Kejadian Pertahun=
Total Probability x Total Kejadian Pertahun
22
10/18/2013
5.0 34 35
30
5.5 17
25
6.0 8 20
6.5 5 15
10
7.0 3
5
7.5 2 0
M
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
23
10/18/2013
M
Sumber 2
AL
Sumber 3
AY
Medan
SI
A
Sumber 1
SAMUDERA
INDONESIA BENGKULU
1914,2000
(I=VIII)
Sumber: Puslitbang Geologi
X
Rate-1
= Jumlah kejadian/Tahun Sumber-1
2 3
X X
Rate-2 Rate-3
= Jumlah kejadian/Tahun Sumber-2 = Jumlah kejadian/Tahun Sumber-3
24
10/18/2013
25
10/18/2013
26
10/18/2013
Jumlah Kejadian
Tahun
Kurva Seismic Hazard
Sumber Gabungan
Sumber 3
Sumber 2
Sumber 1
27
10/18/2013
Bagaimana mencari m? f
28
10/18/2013
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
5.0 20.0
5.5 7.0
6.0 2.0
6.5 0.6
7.0 0.175
7.5 0.0625
29
10/18/2013
Rate= a-bxMmin
Rate =10
kejadian 100%
M
Mmin Mmax
30
10/18/2013
Jumlah Kejadian/th
(Jumlah Kejadian >)/th
Mmin Mmax M
Mmin Mmax M
Fungsi Distribusi
Log ((Jumlah Kejadian >)/th)
Loglm = a – b M
b= b ln (10)
a b
Mmax M
31
10/18/2013
b= b ln (10)
Loglm = a – b M
a
b
Mmax M
32