Soal Kasus

Perusahaan industri PUKET memproduksi produk P dan produk Q, dan pRoduk tersebut dijual di dua daerah pemasaran Jakarta dan Surabaya. Bahan
1
baku yang digunakannadalah A, B, dan C. Data penjualan periode yang lalu adalah sebagai berikut :

Data Penjualan PT PUKET

Tahun 2016 - 2017 (unit)
Tahun. Jakarta Surabaya
Triwulan P Q P Q
2016.I 4,575 12,445 1,850 5,050
2016.II 4,430 12,625 1,960 4,975
2016.III 4,480 12,375 2,025 4,850 Hasil Estimasi Rerata
2016.IV 4,520 12,525 2,025 5,075 Daerah PP - Produk XX 18,000 unit 17,967
2006 18,005 49,970 7,860 19,950 Daerah PP - Produk YY 50,000 unit 50,072
2017.I 4,450 12,575 2,050 4,875 Daerah QQ - Produk XX 9,000 unit 8,399
2017.II 4,448 12,552 2,000 5,100 Daerah QQ - Produk YY 20,000 unit 19,936
2017.III 4,514 12,385 2,150 4,884
2017.IV 4,550 12,575 2,276 5,075
2007 17,962 50,087 8,476 19,934

2 Harga Jual untuk Tahun 2018, untuk Produk XX / unit Rp30,000

dan produk YY/ unit sebesar Rp15,000

3 Persediaan Bahan (menngunakan metode fifo)

Persediaan Awal Harga (000) Persediaan Awal Harga (000)
Bahan A 3,000 unit Rp 2,400 4,000 unit Rp 2,400
Bahan B 6,000 unit Rp 800 7,500 unit Rp 800
Bahan C 5,000 unit Rp 650 6,000 unit Rp 650
Produk Jadi XX 500 unit Rp 17,500 800 unit Rp 19,000
Produk Jadi YY 900 unit Rp 12,000 600 unit Rp 13,000

4 Ketetapan biaya overhead pabrik per unit tahun 2018 :

 Produk XX Produk YY
Departemen I Rp 1400 Rp 1200
Departemen II Rp 900 Rp 850

5 Biaya-biaya
- Distribusi Rp 110,000,000 (termasuk biaya non cash Rp 20,000,000 )
- Adiministrasi Rp 65,000,000
- Kelebihan Biaya lain terrhadap pendapatan lain Rp 137,000,000
-Rata-rata tarif pajak 30%

6 Saldo awal laba ditahan Rp 132,000,000

7 Dividen yang direncanakan akan dibayar selama tahun depan Rp 65,000,000

 195 XX 258
200 0.98 261 0.99
Rerata2 Momen Momen2 Kuadrat Lengkung 203 0.99 270 0.97
17,978 18,000 18,000 17,990 18,376 209 0.97 270 1.00
50,043 50,000 50,000 50,026 49,577
8,245 9,000 9,000 8,918 9,097 208 1.00 274 0.99
19,940 20,000 20,000 19,984 20,351 214 0.97 272 1.01
212 1.01 282 0.96
215 0.99 280 1.01
METODE TREN SETENGAH RATA-RATA
1.a. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK ATAS 2.a. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK
Jakarta JUMLAH RATA-RATA
N P KELOMPOK N
(Y) (X)
1 2016.I 4,575.00 -2 1 2016.I
2 2016.II 4,430.00 18,005.00 4,501.25 -1 2 2016.II
3 2016.III 4,480.00 ( K1 ) 1 3 2016.III
4 2016.IV 4,520.00 2 4 2016.IV
5 2017.I 4,450.00 3 5 2017.I
6 2017.II 4,448.00 17,962.00 4,490.50 4 6 2017.II
7 2017.III 4,514.00 ( K2 ) 5 7 2017.III
8 2017.IV 4,550.00 6 8 2017.IV
7
Y = a + b (X) Y = a + b (X)

a = RATA-RATA TAHUN DASAR a = RATA-RATA TAHUN DASAR

a= 4,501.25 a= 12,492.50

b = jumlah RATA-RATA K2 DAN K1 dibagi BANYAK DATA b = SELISIH RATA-RATA K2 DAN K1 diba
b= K2 (-) K1 (/) (n) b= K2
b = 4,490.50 (-) 4,501.25 (/) 8.00 b= 12,521.75
b= -10.75 (/) 8.00 b= 29.25
b= -1.34 b= 3.66

Fungsi Dasar : Y = a + b (X) ..... X = 7 Fungsi Dasar :

Y = 4,501.25 (+) -1.34 (X) Y=
Y = 4,501.25 (+) -1.34 7.00 Y=
Y= 4,501.25 (+) -9.41 Y=
Y = 4,491.84 Y=

Y 2018 = 4,491.84 (*) 4.00 triwulan Y 2018 =

Y 2018 = 17,967.38 Y 2018 =

1.b. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK BAWAH 2.b. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK

Jakarta JUMLAH RATA-RATA
N P KELOMPOK N
(Y) (X)
1 2016.I 4,575.00 -6 1 2016.I
2 2016.II 4,430.00 18,005.00 4,501.25 -5 2 2016.II
3 2016.III 4,480.00 ( K2 ) -4 3 2016.III
4 2016.IV 4,520.00 -3 4 2016.IV
5 2017.I 4,450.00 -2 5 2017.I
6 2017.II 4,448.00 17,962.00 4,490.50 -1 6 2017.II
 7 2017.III 4,514.00 ( K1 ) 1 7 2017.III
8 2017.IV 4,550.00 2 8 2017.IV
3
Y = a + b (X) Y = a + b (X)

a = RATA-RATA TAHUN DASAR (K1) a = RATA-RATA TAHUN DASAR (K1)

a= 4,490.50 a= 12,521.75

b = SELISIH RATA-RATA K2 DAN K1 dibagi BANYAK DATA b = SELISIH RATA-RATA K2 DAN K1 diba
b= K2 (-) K1 (/) (n) b= K2
b = 4,501.25 (-) 4,490.50 (/) 8.00 b= 12,492.50
b= 10.75 (/) 8.00 b= -29.25
b= 1.34 b= -3.66

Fungsi Dasar : Y = a + b (X) ..... X = 3 Fungsi Dasar :

Y = 4,490.50 (+) 1.34 (X) Y=
Y= 4,490.50 (+) 1.34 3.00 Y=
Y = 4,490.50 (+) 4.03 Y=
Y = 4,494.53 Y=

Y 2018 = 4,494.53 (*) 4.00 triwulan Y 2018 =

Y 2018 = 17,978.13 Y 2018 =

Jakarta P Jakarta Q
Triwulan Tahun Triwulan Tahun
METODE TREN SETENGAH RATA-RATA
1.a. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK ATAS 4,492 17,967 12,518 50,072
1.b. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK BAWAH 4,495 17,978 12,511 50,043
METODE TREN MOMEN 4,500 18,000 12,500 50,000
METODE TREN KUADRAT TERKECIL 4,497 17,990

Jakarta P METODE TREN MOMEN 4,500 18,000

Surabaya P METODE TREN MOMEN 2,250 9,000
JUMLAH RENCANA JUAL PRODUK P 6,750 27,000

Jakarta Q METODE TREN MOMEN 12,500 50,000

Surabaya Q METODE TREN MOMEN 5,000 20,000
JUMLAH RENCANA JUAL PRODUK Q 17,500 69,999
UN DASAR KELOMPOK ATAS 3.a. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK ATAS
Jakarta JUMLAH RATA-RATA Surabaya
Q KELOMPOK N P
(Y) (X) (Y)
12,445.00 -2 1 2016.I 1,850
12,625.00 49,970.00 12,492.50 -1 2 2016.II 1,960
12,375.00 ( K1 ) 1 3 2016.III 2,025
12,525.00 2 4 2016.IV 2,025
12,575.00 3 5 2017.I 2,050
12,575.00 50,087.00 12,521.75 4 6 2017.II 2,000
12,552.00 ( K2 ) 5 7 2017.III 2,150
12,385.00 6 8 2017.IV 2,276
7
Y = a + b (X)

ATA TAHUN DASAR a = RATA-RATA TAHUN DASAR

a= 1,965.00

RATA-RATA K2 DAN K1 dibagi BANYAK DATA b = SELISIH RATA-RATA K2 DAN K1 dibagi BANYAK DATA
(-) K1 (/) (n) b= K2 (-)
(-) 12,492.50 (/) 8.00 b= 2,119.00 (-)
(/) 8.00 b= 154.00 (/)
b= 19.25

Y = a + b (X) ..... X = 7 Fungsi Dasar : Y = a + b (X) ..... X = 7

12,492.50 (+) 3.66 (X) Y = 1,965.00
12,492.50 (+) 3.66 7.00 Y = 1,965.00
12,492.50 (+) 25.59 Y = 1,965.00
12,518.09 Y = 2,099.75

12,518.09 (*) 4.00 triwulan Y 2018 = 2,099.75

50,072.38 Y 2018 = 8,399.00

UN DASAR KELOMPOK BAWAH 3.b. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK BAWAH

Jakarta JUMLAH RATA-RATA Surabaya
Q KELOMPOK N P
(Y) (X) (Y)
12,445.00 -6 1.00 2016.I 1,850.00
12,625.00 49,970.00 12,492.50 -5 2.00 2016.II 1,960.00
12,375.00 ( K2 ) -4 3.00 2016.III 2,025.00
12,525.00 -3 4.00 2016.IV 2,025.00
12,575.00 -2 5.00 2017.I 2,050.00
12,575.00 50,087.00 12,521.75 -1 6.00 2017.II 2,000.00
 12,552.00 ( K1 ) 1 7.00 2017.III 2,150.00
12,385.00 2 8.00 2017.IV 2,276.00
3
Y = a + b (X)

ATA TAHUN DASAR (K1) a = RATA-RATA TAHUN DASAR (K1)

a= 2,119.00

RATA-RATA K2 DAN K1 dibagi BANYAK DATA b = SELISIH RATA-RATA K2 DAN K1 dibagi BANYAK DATA
(-) K1 (/) (n) b= K2 (-)
(-) 12,521.75 (/) 8.00 b= 1,965.00 (-)
(/) 8.00 b= -154.00 (/)
b= -19.25

Y = a + b (X) ..... X = 3 Fungsi Dasar : Y = a + b (X) ..... X = 3

12,521.75 (+) -3.66 (X) Y = 2,119.00
12,521.75 (+) -3.66 3.00 Y = 2,119.00
12,521.75 (+) -10.97 Y = 2,119.00
12,510.78 Y = 2,061.25

12,510.78 (*) 4.00 triwulan Y 2018 = 2,061.25

50,043.13 Y 2018 = 8,245.00

Surabaya P Surabaya Q
Triwulan Tahun Triwulan Tahun

2,100 8,399 4,984 19,936

2,061 8,245 4,985 19,940
2,250 9,000 5,000 20,000
 KELOMPOK ATAS 4.a. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK ATAS
JUMLAH RATA-RATA Surabaya JUMLAH RATA-RATA
KELOMPOK N Q KELOMPOK
(X) (Y)
-2 1.00 2016.I 5,050.00
7,860.00 1,965.00 -1 2.00 2016.II 4,975.00 19,950.00 4,987.50
( K1 ) 1 3.00 2016.III 4,850.00 ( K1 )
2 4.00 2016.IV 5,075.00
3 5.00 2017.I 4,875.00
8,476.00 2,119.00 4 6.00 2017.II 5,100.00 19,934.00 4,983.50
( K2 ) 5 7.00 2017.III 4,884.00 ( K2 )
6 8.00 2017.IV 5,075.00
7
Y = a + b (X)

a = RATA-RATA TAHUN DASAR

a= 4,987.50

2 DAN K1 dibagi BANYAK DATA b = SELISIH RATA-RATA K2 DAN K1 dibagi BANYAK DATA
K1 (/) (n) b= K2 (-) K1 (/)
1,965.00 (/) 8.00 b= 4,983.50 (-) 4,987.50 (/)
8.00 b= -4.00 (/) 8.00
b= -0.50

= a + b (X) ..... X = 7 Fungsi Dasar : Y = a + b (X) ..... X = 7

(+) 19.25 (X) Y = 4,987.50 (+) -0.50
(+) 19.25 7.00 Y = 4,987.50 (+) -0.50
(+) 134.75 Y= 4,987.50 (+) -3.50
Y = 4,984.00

(*) 4.00 triwulan Y 2018 = 4,984.00 (*) 4.00

Y 2018 = 19,936.00

KELOMPOK BAWAH 3.b. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK BAWAH

JUMLAH RATA-RATA Surabaya JUMLAH RATA-RATA
KELOMPOK N Q KELOMPOK
(X) (Y)
-6.00 1.00 2016.I 5,050.00
7,860.00 1,965.00 -5.00 2.00 2016.II 4,975.00 19,950.00 4,987.50
( K2 ) -4.00 3.00 2016.III 4,850.00 ( K2 )
-3.00 4.00 2016.IV 5,075.00
-2.00 5.00 2017.I 4,875.00
8,476.00 2,119.00 -1.00 6.00 2017.II 5,100.00 19,934.00 4,983.50
 ( K1 ) 1.00 7.00 2017.III 4,884.00 ( K1 )
2.00 8.00 2017.IV 5,075.00
3.00
Y = a + b (X)

a = RATA-RATA TAHUN DASAR (K1)

a= 4,983.50

2 DAN K1 dibagi BANYAK DATA b = SELISIH RATA-RATA K2 DAN K1 dibagi BANYAK DATA
K1 (/) (n) b= K2 (-) K1 (/)
2,119.00 (/) 8.00 b= 4,987.50 (-) 4,983.50 (/)
8.00 b= 4.00 (/) 8.00
b= 0.50

= a + b (X) ..... X = 3 Fungsi Dasar : Y = a + b (X) ..... X = 3

(+) -19.25 (X) Y = 4,983.50 (+) 0.50
(+) -19.25 3.00 Y= 4,983.50 (+) 0.50
(+) -57.75 Y = 4,983.50 (+) 1.50
Y = 4,985.00

(*) 4.00 triwulan Y 2018 = 4,985.00 (*) 4.00

Y 2018 = 19,940.00
 METODE TREN MOMEN

Jakarta
N P
(X) (Y) X X2 XY
-2.00 1.00 2016.I 4,575.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
-1.00 2.00 2016.II 4,430.00 1.00 1.00 4,430.00
1.00 3.00 2016.III 4,480.00 2.00 4.00 8,960.00
2.00 4.00 2016.IV 4,520.00 3.00 9.00 13,560.00
3.00 5.00 2017.I 4,450.00 4.00 16.00 17,800.00
4.00 6.00 2017.II 4,448.00 5.00 25.00 22,240.00
5.00 7.00 2017.III 4,514.00 6.00 36.00 27,084.00
6.00 8.00 2017.IV 4,550.00 7.00 49.00 31,850.00
7.00 35,967.00 28.00 140.00 125,924.00

CARA ELIMINASI
(i) < Y = n.a + b.<X 35,967.00 = 8.00 a +
(ii) <XY = a.<X + b.<X2 125,924.00 = 28.00 a +

Mencari Nilai a, maka b dinolkan

(n) 35,967.00 = 8.00 a +
8.00 125,924.00 = 28.00 a +

179,835.00 = 40.00 a +
125,924.00 = 28.00 a +
53,911.00 = 12.00 a
(X) a = 53,911.00 / 12.00
7.00 a = 4,492.58

Mencari Nilai a, maka b dinolkan

35,967.00 = 8.00 a +
triwulan 125,924.00 = 28.00 a +

125,884.50 = 28.00 a +
125,924.00 = 28.00 a +
-39.50 = 0.00 a +
b = -39.50 / -42.00
(X) b = 0.94
-6.00
-5.00 Fungi Dasar Y = 4,492.58 +
-4.00 Y = 4,492.58 +
-3.00 Y = 4,492.58 +
-2.00 Y = 4,500.11
-1.00 Y 2018 = 4,500.11 (*) 4.00 triwulan
 1.00 Y 2018 = 18,000.43
2.00
3.00 CARA SUBSTITUSI
(i) < Y = n.a + b.<X 35,967.00 = 8.00 a +
(ii) <XY = a.<X + b.<X2 125,924.00 = 28.00 a +

Mencari Nilai b sementara :

( ii ) 125,924.00 = 28.00 a +
28.00 a + b 140.00
(n) b 140.00 = 125,924.00 -
8.00
125,924.00 - 28.00
b = 140.00 140.00

b = 899.46 - 0.20
(X)
3.00 Mencari Nilai a :
(i) 35,967.00 = 8.00 a +
35,967.00 = 8.00 a +(
35,967.00 = 8.00 a +
triwulan 35,967.00 - 25,184.80 = 8.00
10,782.20 = 2.40
a = 10,782.20
a = 4,492.58

Nilai b, dimasukan ke persamaan (ii) yang sudah disederhanakan

b = 899.46 - 0.20

b = 899.46 - 0.20
b = 899.46 - 898.52
b = 0.94

Fungi Dasar Y = 4,492.58 +

Y = 4,492.58 +
Y = 4,492.58 +
Y = 4,500.11
Y 2018 = 4,500.11 (*) 4.00 triwulan
Y 2018 = 18,000.43
 Jakarta
N Q
(Y) X
1.00 2016.I 12,445.00 0.00
2.00 2016.II 12,625.00 1.00
3.00 2016.III 12,375.00 2.00
4.00 2016.IV 12,525.00 3.00
5.00 2017.I 12,575.00 4.00
6.00 2017.II 12,575.00 5.00
7.00 2017.III 12,552.00 6.00
8.00 2017.IV 12,385.00 7.00
100,057.00 28.00

CARA ELIMINASI
b 28.00 (i) < Y = n.a + b.<X 100,057.00 =
b 140.00 (ii) <XY = a.<X + b.<X2 350,132.00 =

Mencari Nilai a, maka b dinolkan

b 28.00 5.00 140.00 100,057.00 =
b 140.00 28.00 350,132.00 =

b 140.00 500,285.00 =
b 140.00 (-) 350,132.00 =
0.00 150,153.00 =
a =
a =

Mencari Nilai a, maka b dinolkan

b 28.00 3.50 28.00 100,057.00 =
b 140.00 8.00 350,132.00 =

b 98.00 350,199.50 =
b 140.00 (-) 350,132.00 =
b -42.00 67.50 =
b =
b =

0.94 X Fungi Dasar Y

0.94 8.00 Y
7.52 Y
Y
Y 2018 = 12,499.89 (*)
 Y 2018 = 49,999.57

CARA SUBSTITUSI
b 28.00 (i) < Y = n.a + b.<X 100,057.00 =
b 140.00 (ii) <XY = a.<X + b.<X2 350,132.00 =

Mencari Nilai b sementara :

b 140.00 ( ii ) 350,132.00 =
= 125,924.00 28.00 a
28.00 a b 140.00

a
b =

a b =

Mencari Nilai a :
b 28.00 (i) 100,057.00 =
899.46 - 0.20 a) 28.00 100,057.00 =
25,184.80 - 5.60 a 100,057.00 =
a - 5.60 a 100,057.00 -
a
/ 2.40

disederhanakan Nilai b, dimasukan ke persamaan (ii) yang sudah

a b =

4,492.58 b =
b =
b =

0.94 X Fungi Dasar Y

0.94 8.00 Y
7.52 Y
Y
Y 2018 = 12,499.89 (*)
Y 2018 = 49,999.57
 N
X2 XY
0.00 0.00 1.00 2016.I
1.00 12,625.00 2.00 2016.II
4.00 24,750.00 3.00 2016.III
9.00 37,575.00 4.00 2016.IV
16.00 50,300.00 5.00 2017.I
25.00 62,875.00 6.00 2017.II
36.00 75,312.00 7.00 2017.III
49.00 86,695.00 8.00 2017.IV
140.00 350,132.00

CARA ELIMINASI
8.00 a + b 28.00 (i) < Y = n.a + b.<X
28.00 a + b 140.00 (ii) <XY = a.<X + b.<X2

Mencari Nilai a, maka b

8.00 a + b 28.00 5.00 140.00
28.00 a + b 140.00 28.00

40.00 a + b 140.00
28.00 a + b 140.00 (-)
12.00 a 0.00
150,153.00 / 12.00
12,512.75

Mencari Nilai a, maka b

8.00 a + b 28.00 3.50 28.00
28.00 a + b 140.00 8.00

28.00 a + b 98.00
28.00 a + b 140.00 (-)
0.00 a + b -42.00
67.50 / -42.00
-1.61

= 12,512.75 + -1.61 X Fungi Dasar

= 12,512.75 + -1.61 8.00
= 12,512.75 + -12.86
= 12,499.89
4.00 triwulan Y 2018 =
 Y 2018 =

CARA SUBSTITUSI
8.00 a + b 28.00 (i) < Y = n.a + b.<X
28.00 a + b 140.00 (ii) <XY = a.<X + b.<X2

Mencari Nilai b sement

28.00 a + b 140.00 ( ii )
+ b 140.00 = 350,132.00
= 350,132.00 - 28.00 a

350,132.00 - 28.00 a
140.00 140.00

2,500.94 - 0.20 a

Mencari Nilai a :
8.00 a + b 28.00 (i)
8.00 a +( 2,500.94 - 0.20 a) 28.00
8.00 a + 70,026.40 - 5.60 a
70,026.40 = 8.00 a - 5.60 a
30,030.60 = 2.40 a
a = 30,030.60 / 2.40
a = 12,512.75

sukan ke persamaan (ii) yang sudah disederhanakan

2,500.94 - 0.20 a

2,500.94 - 0.20 12,512.75

2,500.94 - 2,502.55
-1.61

= 12,512.75 + -1.61 X Fungi Dasar

= 12,512.75 + -1.61 8.00
= 12,512.75 + -12.86
= 12,499.89
4.00 triwulan Y 2018 =
Y 2018 =
 Surabaya
P
(Y) X X2 XY
1,850.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1,960.00 1.00 1.00 1,960.00
2,025.00 2.00 4.00 4,050.00
2,025.00 3.00 9.00 6,075.00
2,050.00 4.00 16.00 8,200.00
2,000.00 5.00 25.00 10,000.00
2,150.00 6.00 36.00 12,900.00
2,276.00 7.00 49.00 15,932.00
16,336.00 28.00 140.00 59,117.00

LIMINASI
16,336.00 = 8.00 a + b 28.00
59,117.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00

Mencari Nilai a, maka b dinolkan

16,336.00 = 8.00 a + b 28.00 5.00 140.00
59,117.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00 28.00

81,680.00 = 40.00 a + b 140.00

59,117.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00 (-)
22,563.00 = 12.00 a 0.00
a = 22,563.00 / 12.00
a = 1,880.25

Mencari Nilai a, maka b dinolkan

16,336.00 = 8.00 a + b 28.00 3.50 28.00
59,117.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00 8.00

57,176.00 = 28.00 a + b 98.00

59,117.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00 (-)
-1,941.00 = 0.00 a + b -42.00
b = -1,941.00 / -42.00
b = 46.21

Fungi Dasar Y = 1,880.25 + 46.21 X

Y = 1,880.25 + 46.21 8.00
Y = 1,880.25 + 369.71
Y = 2,249.96
2,249.96 (*) 4.00 triwulan
 8,999.86

UBSTITUSI
16,336.00 = 8.00 a + b 28.00
59,117.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00

Mencari Nilai b sementara :

59,117.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00
28.00 a + b 140.00 = 59,117.00
b 140.00 = 59,117.00 - 28.00 a

59,117.00 - 28.00 a
b = 140.00 140.00

b = 422.26 - 0.20 a

Mencari Nilai a :
16,336.00 = 8.00 a + b 28.00
16,336.00 = 8.00 a +( 422.26 - 0.20 a) 28.00
16,336.00 = 8.00 a + 11,823.40 - 5.60 a
16,336.00 - 11,823.40 = 8.00 a - 5.60 a
4,512.60 = 2.40 a
a = 4,512.60 / 2.40
a = 1,880.25

Nilai b, dimasukan ke persamaan (ii) yang sudah disederhanakan

b = 422.26 - 0.20 a

b = 422.26 - 0.20 1,880.25

b = 422.26 - 376.05
b = 46.21

Fungi Dasar Y = 1,880.25 + 46.21 X

Y = 1,880.25 + 46.21 8.00
Y = 1,880.25 + 369.71
Y = 2,249.96
2,249.96 (*) 4.00 triwulan
8,999.86
 Surabaya
N Q
(Y) X X2 XY
1.00 2016.I 5,050.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.00 2016.II 4,975.00 1.00 1.00 4,975.00
3.00 2016.III 4,850.00 2.00 4.00 9,700.00
4.00 2016.IV 5,075.00 3.00 9.00 15,225.00
5.00 2017.I 4,875.00 4.00 16.00 19,500.00
6.00 2017.II 5,100.00 5.00 25.00 25,500.00
7.00 2017.III 4,884.00 6.00 36.00 29,304.00
8.00 2017.IV 5,075.00 7.00 49.00 35,525.00
39,884.00 28.00 140.00 139,729.00

CARA ELIMINASI
(i) < Y = n.a + b.<X 39,884.00 = 8.00 a + b 28.00
(ii) <XY = a.<X + b.<X2 139,729.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00

Mencari Nilai a, maka b dinolkan

39,884.00 = 8.00 a + b 28.00
139,729.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00

199,420.00 = 40.00 a + b 140.00

139,729.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00
59,691.00 = 12.00 a 0.00
a = 59,691.00 / 12.00
a = 4,974.25

Mencari Nilai a, maka b dinolkan

39,884.00 = 8.00 a + b 28.00
139,729.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00

139,594.00 = 28.00 a + b 98.00

139,729.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00
-135.00 = 0.00 a + b -42.00
b = -135.00 / -42.00
b = 3.21

Fungi Dasar Y = 4,974.25 + 3.21 X

Y = 4,974.25 + 3.21 8.00
Y = 4,974.25 + 25.71
Y = 4,999.96
Y 2018 = 4,999.96 (*) 4.00 triwulan
 Y 2018 = 19,999.86

CARA SUBSTITUSI
(i) < Y = n.a + b.<X 39,884.00 = 8.00 a + b 28.00
(ii) <XY = a.<X + b.<X2 139,729.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00

Mencari Nilai b sementara :

( ii ) 139,729.00 = 28.00 a + b 140.00
28.00 a + b 140.00 = 139,729.00
b 140.00 = 139,729.00 - 28.00 a

139,729.00 - 28.00 a
b = 140.00 140.00

b = 998.06 - 0.20 a

Mencari Nilai a :
(i) 39,884.00 = 8.00 a + b 28.00
39,884.00 = 8.00 a +( 998.06 -
39,884.00 = 8.00 a + 27,945.80 -
39,884.00 - 27,945.80 = 8.00 a -
11,938.20 = 2.40 a
a = 11,938.20 / 2.40
a = 4,974.25

Nilai b, dimasukan ke persamaan (ii) yang sudah disederhanakan

b = 998.06 - 0.20 a

b = 998.06 - 0.20 4,974.25

b = 998.06 - 994.85
b = 3.21

Fungi Dasar Y = 4,974.25 + 3.21 X

Y = 4,974.25 + 3.21 8.00
Y = 4,974.25 + 25.71
Y = 4,999.96
Y 2018 = 4,999.96 (*) 4.00 triwulan
Y 2018 = 19,999.86
 3. METODE TREN KUADRAT TERKECIL

PP - XX KOTA PP
N PRODUK XX
(Y) X X2 XY
1.00 2016.I 4,575.00 -4 16.00 -18,300.00
2.00 2016.II 4,430.00 -3 9.00 -13,290.00
3.00 2016.III 4,480.00 -2 4.00 -8,960.00
4.00 2016.IV 4,520.00 -1 1.00 -4,520.00
5.00 2017.I 4,450.00 1 1.00 4,450.00
6.00 2017.II 4,448.00 2 4.00 8,896.00
7.00 2017.III 4,514.00 3 9.00 13,542.00
8.00 2017.IV 4,550.00 4 16.00 18,200.00
35,967.00 5.00 60.00 18.00

Mencari nilai b :
Y = <XY / <X2 18.00 / 60.00 =
Mencari nilai a :
Y = <Y / n 35,967.00 / 8.00 =

5.00 140.00 Fungi Dasar Y = 4,495.88 +

28.00 Y = 4,495.88 +
Y = 4,495.88 +
Y = 4,497.38
(-) Y 2018 = 4,497.38 (*) 4.00
Y 2018 = 17,989.50

3.50 28.00
8.00

(-)
0.20 a) 28.00
5.60 a
5.60 a

3. METODE TREN KUADRAT TERKECIL

 PP - YY KOTA PP
N PRODUK YY
(Y) X X2 XY
1.00 2016.I 12,445.00 -4 16.00 -49,780.00
2.00 2016.II 12,625.00 -3 9.00 -37,875.00
3.00 2016.III 12,375.00 -2 4.00 -24,750.00
4.00 2016.IV 12,525.00 -1 1.00 -12,525.00
5.00 2017.I 12,575.00 1 1.00 12,575.00
6.00 2017.II 12,575.00 2 4.00 25,150.00
7.00 2017.III 12,552.00 3 9.00 37,656.00
8.00 2017.IV 12,385.00 4 16.00 49,540.00
100,057.00 5.00 60.00 -9.00

Mencari nilai b :
0.30 Y = <XY / <X2 -9.00 / 60.00 = -0.15
Mencari nilai a :
4,495.88 Y = <Y / n 100,057.00 / 8.00 = 12,507.13

a X Fungi Dasar Y = 12,507.13 + a

0.30 5.00 Y = 12,507.13 + -0.15
1.50 Y = 12,507.13 + -0.75
Y = 12,506.38
triwulan Y 2018 = 12,506.38 (*) 4.00 triwulan
Y 2018 = 50,025.50
 QQ - XX KOTA QQ
N PRODUK XX
(Y) X X2 XY
1.00 2016.I 1,850.00 -4 16.00 -7,400.00
2.00 2016.II 1,960.00 -3 9.00 -5,880.00
3.00 2016.III 2,025.00 -2 4.00 -4,050.00
4.00 2016.IV 2,025.00 -1 1.00 -2,025.00
5.00 2017.I 2,050.00 1 1.00 2,050.00
6.00 2017.II 2,000.00 2 4.00 4,000.00
7.00 2017.III 2,150.00 3 9.00 6,450.00
8.00 2017.IV 2,276.00 4 16.00 9,104.00
16,336.00 5.00 60.00 2,249.00

Mencari nilai b :
Y = <XY / <X2 2,249.00 / 60.00 = 37.48
Mencari nilai a :
Y = <Y / n 16,336.00 / 8.00 = 2,042.00

X Fungi Dasar Y = 2,042.00 + a X

5.00 Y = 2,042.00 + 37.48 5.00
Y = 2,042.00 + 187.42
Y = 2,229.42
Y 2018 = 2,229.42 (*) 4.00 triwulan
Y 2018 = 8,917.67
 QQ - YY KOTA QQ
N PRODUK YY
(Y) X X2 XY
1.00 2016.I 5,050.00 -4 16.00 -20,200.00
2.00 2016.II 4,975.00 -3 9.00 -14,925.00
3.00 2016.III 4,850.00 -2 4.00 -9,700.00
4.00 2016.IV 5,075.00 -1 1.00 -5,075.00
5.00 2017.I 4,875.00 1 1.00 4,875.00
6.00 2017.II 5,100.00 2 4.00 10,200.00
7.00 2017.III 4,884.00 3 9.00 14,652.00
8.00 2017.IV 5,075.00 4 16.00 20,300.00
39,884.00 5.00 60.00 127.00

Mencari nilai b :
Y = <XY / <X2 127.00 / 60.00 = 2.12
Mencari nilai a :
Y = <Y / n 39,884.00 / 8.00 = 4,985.50

Fungi Dasar Y = 4,985.50 + a X

Y = 4,985.50 + 2.12 5.00
Y = 4,985.50 + 10.58
Y = 4,996.08
Y 2018 = 4,996.08 (*) 4.00 triwulan
Y 2018 = 19,984.33
4. METODE TREN GARIS LENGKUNG

PP - XX KOTA PP
N PRODUK XX
(Y) X X2 X4 XY X2Y
1.00 2016.I 4,575.00 -4 16.00 256.00 -18,300.00 73,200.00
2.00 2016.II 4,430.00 -3 9.00 81.00 -13,290.00 39,870.00
3.00 2016.III 4,480.00 -2 4.00 16.00 -8,960.00 17,920.00
4.00 2016.IV 4,520.00 -1 1.00 1.00 -4,520.00 4,520.00
5.00 2017.I 4,450.00 1 1.00 1.00 4,450.00 4,450.00
6.00 2017.II 4,448.00 2 4.00 16.00 8,896.00 17,792.00
7.00 2017.III 4,514.00 3 9.00 81.00 13,542.00 40,626.00
8.00 2017.IV 4,550.00 4 16.00 256.00 18,200.00 72,800.00
35,967.00 5.00 60.00 708.00 18.00 271,178.00

å Y = n a + c å X2 35,967.00 = 8.00 a + c

å XY= b < X2 18.00 = b 60.00

å X2Y= a å X2 + c å X4 271,178.00 = a 60.00 + c

Mencari nilai c, dengan cara membandingkan persamaan (i) dan persamaan (iii) :
(i) 35,967.00 = 8.00 a + c 60.00
( iii ) 271,178.00 = 60.00 a + c 708.00
a di nol kan :
(i) 269,752.50 = 60.00 a + c 450.00 7.50
( iii ) 271,178.00 = 60.00 a + c 708.00
-1,425.50 = 0.00 a + c -258.00
c = -1,425.50 / -258.00
c = 5.53

Mencari nilai a, dengan cara membandingkan persamaan (i) dan persamaan (iii) :
(i) 35,967.00 = 8.00 a + c 60.00
( iii ) 271,178.00 = 60.00 a + c 708.00
c di nol kan :
(i) 424,410.60 = 94.40 a + c 708.00 11.80
( iii ) 271,178.00 = 60.00 a + c 708.00
153,232.60 = 34.40 a + c 0.00
a = 153,232.60 / 34.40
a = 4,454.44

Mencari nilai b dari persamaan (ii) :

18.00 = b 60.00
b = 18.00 / 60.00
 b = 0.30

Fungi Dasar Y = 4,454.44 + 0.30 X +

Y = A + B(X) + C(X2) Y = 4,454.44 + 0.30 5.00 +
Y = 4,454.44 + 1.50 +
Y = 4,594.07
Y 2018 = 4,594.07 (*) 4.00 triwulan
Y 2018 = 18,376.26
 PP - YY KOTA PP
N PRODUK YY
(Y) X X2 X4
1.00 2016.I 12,445.00 -4 16.00 256.00
2.00 2016.II 12,625.00 -3 9.00 81.00
3.00 2016.III 12,375.00 -2 4.00 16.00
4.00 2016.IV 12,525.00 -1 1.00 1.00
5.00 2017.I 12,575.00 1 1.00 1.00
6.00 2017.II 12,575.00 2 4.00 16.00
7.00 2017.III 12,552.00 3 9.00 81.00
8.00 2017.IV 12,385.00 4 16.00 256.00
100,057.00 5.00 60.00 708.00

60.00 åY
= n a + c å X2 100,057.00 = 8.00

å XY
= b < X2 -9.00 = b

708.00 å=
X2Ya å X2 + c å X4 748,773.00 = a

Mencari nilai c, dengan cara membandingkan persamaan (i) dan persamaan (iii) :
(i) 100,057.00 = 8.00 a +
( iii ) 748,773.00 = 60.00 a +
a di nol kan :
60.00 (i) 750,427.50 = 60.00 a +
8.00 ( iii ) 748,773.00 = 60.00 a +
1,654.50 = 0.00 a +
c = 1,654.50 / -258.00
c = -6.41

Mencari nilai a, dengan cara membandingkan persamaan (i) dan persamaan (iii) :
(i) 100,057.00 = 8.00 a +
( iii ) 748,773.00 = 60.00 a +
c di nol kan :
708.00 (i) 1,180,672.60 = 94.40 a +
60.00 ( iii ) 748,773.00 = 60.00 a +
431,899.60 = 34.40 a +
a = 431,899.60 / 34.40
a = 12,555.22

Mencari nilai b dari persamaan (ii) :

-9.00 = b 60.00
b = -9.00 / 60.00
 b = -0.15

5.53 X2 Fungi Dasar Y = 12,555.22 +

5.53 25.00 Y = A + B(X) + C(X2) Y = 12,555.22 +
138.1298 Y = 12,555.22 +
Y = 12,394.15
Y 2018 = 12,394.15 (*) 4.00
Y 2018 = 49,576.60
 QQ - XX KOTA QQ
N PRODUK XX
XY X2Y (Y)
-49,780.00 199,120.00 1.00 2016.I 1,850.00
-37,875.00 113,625.00 2.00 2016.II 1,960.00
-24,750.00 49,500.00 3.00 2016.III 2,025.00
-12,525.00 12,525.00 4.00 2016.IV 2,025.00
12,575.00 12,575.00 5.00 2017.I 2,050.00
25,150.00 50,300.00 6.00 2017.II 2,000.00
37,656.00 112,968.00 7.00 2017.III 2,150.00
49,540.00 198,160.00 8.00 2017.IV 2,276.00
-9.00 748,773.00 16,336.00

a + c 60.00 åY
= n a + c å X2

60.00 å XY
= b < X2

60.00 + c 708.00 åX
=2Ya å X2 + c å X4

an persamaan (iii) : Mencari nilai c, dengan cara membandingkan persamaan

c 60.00 (i) 16,336.00 =
c 708.00 ( iii ) 123,181.00 =
a di nol kan :
c 450.00 7.50 60.00 (i) 122,520.00 =
c 708.00 8.00 ( iii ) 123,181.00 =
c -258.00 -661.00 =
c =
c =

an persamaan (iii) : Mencari nilai a, dengan cara membandingkan persamaan

c 60.00 (i) 16,336.00 =
c 708.00 ( iii ) 123,181.00 =
c di nol kan :
c 708.00 11.80 708.00 (i) 192,764.80 =
c 708.00 60.00 ( iii ) 123,181.00 =
c 0.00 69,583.80 =
a =
a =

Mencari nilai b dari persamaan (ii) :

2,249.00 =
b =
 b =

-0.15 X + -6.41 X2 Fungi Dasar Y

-0.15 5.00 + -6.41 25.00 Y = A + B(X) + C(X2) Y
-0.75 + -160.3198 Y
Y
triwulan Y 2018 =
Y 2018 =
 QQ -YY

X X2 X4 XY X2Y
-4 16.00 256.00 -7,400.00 29,600.00 1.00
-3 9.00 81.00 -5,880.00 17,640.00 2.00
-2 4.00 16.00 -4,050.00 8,100.00 3.00
-1 1.00 1.00 -2,025.00 2,025.00 4.00
1 1.00 1.00 2,050.00 2,050.00 5.00
2 4.00 16.00 4,000.00 8,000.00 6.00
3 9.00 81.00 6,450.00 19,350.00 7.00
4 16.00 256.00 9,104.00 36,416.00 8.00
5.00 60.00 708.00 2,249.00 123,181.00

16,336.00 = 8.00 a + c 60.00 åY

2,249.00 = b 60.00 å XY

123,181.00 = a 60.00 + c 708.00 å X2Y

ara membandingkan persamaan (i) dan persamaan (iii) : Mencari nilai c, dengan c
8.00 a + c 60.00 (i)
60.00 a + c 708.00 ( iii )

60.00 a + c 450.00 7.50 60.00 (i)

60.00 a + c 708.00 8.00 ( iii )
0.00 a + c -258.00
-661.00 / -258.00
2.56

ara membandingkan persamaan (i) dan persamaan (iii) : Mencari nilai a, dengan c
8.00 a + c 60.00 (i)
60.00 a + c 708.00 ( iii )

94.40 a + c 708.00 11.80 708.00 (i)

60.00 a + c 708.00 60.00 ( iii )
34.40 a + c 0.00
69,583.80 / 34.40
2,022.78

Mencari nilai b dari persa

b 60.00
2,249.00 / 60.00
 37.48

= 2,022.78 + 37.48 X + 2.56 X2 Fungi Dasar

= 2,022.78 + 37.48 5.00 + 2.56 25.00 Y = A + B(X) + C(X2)
= 2,022.78 + 187.42 + 64.05039
= 2,274.25
2,274.25 (*) 4.00 triwulan
9,097.01
 KOTA QQ
N PRODUK YY
(Y) X X2 X4 XY X2Y
2016.I 5,050.00 -4 16.00 256.00 -20,200.00 80,800.00
2016.II 4,975.00 -3 9.00 81.00 -14,925.00 44,775.00
2016.III 4,850.00 -2 4.00 16.00 -9,700.00 19,400.00
2016.IV 5,075.00 -1 1.00 1.00 -5,075.00 5,075.00
2017.I 4,875.00 1 1.00 1.00 4,875.00 4,875.00
2017.II 5,100.00 2 4.00 16.00 10,200.00 20,400.00
2017.III 4,884.00 3 9.00 81.00 14,652.00 43,956.00
2017.IV 5,075.00 4 16.00 256.00 20,300.00 81,200.00
39,884.00 5.00 60.00 708.00 127.00 300,481.00

= n a + c å X2 39,884.00 = 8.00 a + c 60.00

= b < X2 127.00 = b 60.00

= a å X2 + c å X4 300,481.00 = a 60.00 + c 708.00

Mencari nilai c, dengan cara membandingkan persamaan (i) dan persamaan (iii) :
39,884.00 = 8.00 a + c 60.00
300,481.00 = 60.00 a + c 708.00
a di nol kan :
299,130.00 = 60.00 a + c 450.00 7.50 60.00
300,481.00 = 60.00 a + c 708.00 8.00
-1,351.00 = 0.00 a + c -258.00
c = -1,351.00 / -258.00
c = 5.24

Mencari nilai a, dengan cara membandingkan persamaan (i) dan persamaan (iii) :
39,884.00 = 8.00 a + c 60.00
300,481.00 = 60.00 a + c 708.00
c di nol kan :
470,631.20 = 94.40 a + c 708.00 11.80 708.00
300,481.00 = 60.00 a + c 708.00 60.00
170,150.20 = 34.40 a + c 0.00
a = 170,150.20 / 34.40
a = 4,946.23

Mencari nilai b dari persamaan (ii) :

127.00 = b 60.00
b = 127.00 / 60.00
 b = 2.12

Fungi Dasar Y = 4,946.23 + 2.12 X + 5.24

Y = A + B(X) + C(X2) Y = 4,946.23 + 2.12 5.00 + 5.24
Y = 4,946.23 + 10.58 + 130.9109
Y = 5,087.72
Y 2018 = 5,087.72 (*) 4.00 triwulan
Y 2018 = 20,350.88
5. METODE TREN REGRESI DAN KORELASI

PP - XX KOTA PP BIAYA
N PRODUK XX PROMOSI
(Y) (000) X2
1.00 2016.I 12,445.00 2,489,000 6,195,121,000,000.00
2.00 2016.II 12,625.00 2,525,000 6,375,625,000,000.00
3.00 2016.III 12,375.00 2,475,000 6,125,625,000,000.00
4.00 2016.IV 12,525.00 2,505,000 6,275,025,000,000.00
5.00 2017.I 12,575.00 2,515,000 6,325,225,000,000.00
6.00 2017.II 12,575.00 2,515,000 6,325,225,000,000.00
7.00 2017.III 12,552.00 2,510,400 6,302,108,160,000.00
8.00 2017.IV 12,385.00 2,477,000 6,135,529,000,000.00
100,057.00 5.00 50,059,483,160,000.00
X2
25.00
 X4 XY X2Y
38,379,524,204,641,000,000,000,000.00 30,975,605,000.00 77,098,280,845,000,000.00
40,648,594,140,625,000,000,000,000.00 31,878,125,000.00 80,492,265,625,000,000.00
37,523,281,640,625,000,000,000,000.00 30,628,125,000.00 75,804,609,375,000,000.00
39,375,938,750,625,000,000,000,000.00 31,375,125,000.00 78,594,688,125,000,000.00
40,008,471,300,625,000,000,000,000.00 31,626,125,000.00 79,539,704,375,000,000.00
40,008,471,300,625,000,000,000,000.00 31,626,125,000.00 79,539,704,375,000,000.00
39,716,567,260,338,600,000,000,000.00 31,510,540,800.00 79,104,061,624,320,000.00
37,644,716,109,841,000,000,000,000.00 30,677,645,000.00 75,988,526,665,000,000.00
313,305,564,707,946,000,000,000,000.00 ### 626,161,841,009,320,000.00
12,445.00
12,625.00
12,375.00
12,525.00
12,575.00
12,575.00
12,552.00
12,385.00
STANDAR KESALAHAN ESTIMASI
1. METODE TREN SETENGAH RATA-RATA
a. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK ATAS
Jakarta Produk = P
N Y X Y' = 4,501.25 + -1.34 (X) Y - Y' (Y-Y)2
1 2016.I 4,575.00 -2.00 4,503.94 = 4,501.25 + -1.34 -2.00 71.06 5,049.88
2 2016.II 4,430.00 -1.00 4,502.59 = 4,501.25 + -1.34 -1.00 -72.59 5,269.85
3 2016.III 4,480.00 1.00 4,499.91 = 4,501.25 + -1.34 1.00 -19.91 396.26
4 2016.IV 4,520.00 2.00 4,498.56 = 4,501.25 + -1.34 2.00 21.44 459.57
5 2017.I 4,450.00 3.00 4,497.22 = 4,501.25 + -1.34 3.00 -47.22 2,229.61
6 2017.II 4,448.00 4.00 4,495.88 = 4,501.25 + -1.34 4.00 -47.88 2,292.02
7 2017.III 4,514.00 5.00 4,494.53 = 4,501.25 + -1.34 5.00 19.47 379.03
8 2017.IV 4,550.00 6.00 4,493.19 = 4,501.25 + -1.34 6.00 56.81 3,227.66
Jumlah 19,303.88
dibagi n 2,412.98
SKE = 49.12

b. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK BAWAH

Jakarta Produk = P
N Y X Y' = 4,491 + 1.34 (X) Y - Y' (Y-Y)2
1 2016.I 4,575.00 -6.00 4,482.44 = 4,491 + 1.34 -6.00 92.56 8,567.82
2 2016.II 4,430.00 -5.00 4,483.78 = 4,491 + 1.34 -5.00 -53.78 2,892.42
3 2016.III 4,480.00 -4.00 4,485.13 = 4,491 + 1.34 -4.00 -5.13 26.27
4 2016.IV 4,520.00 -3.00 4,486.47 = 4,491 + 1.34 -3.00 33.53 1,124.34
5 2017.I 4,450.00 -2.00 4,487.81 = 4,491 + 1.34 -2.00 -37.81 1,429.79
6 2017.II 4,448.00 -1.00 4,489.16 = 4,491 + 1.34 -1.00 -41.16 1,693.84
7 2017.III 4,514.00 1.00 4,491.84 = 4,491 + 1.34 1.00 22.16 490.90
8 2017.IV 4,550.00 2.00 4,493.19 = 4,491 + 1.34 2.00 56.81 3,227.66
Jumlah 19,453.03
dibagi n 2,431.63
SKE = 49.31

HASIL STANDAR KESALAHAN ESTIMASI

Jakarta Jakarta
P Q
1. METODE TREN SETENGAH RATA-RATA
Tahun dasar kelompok atas 49.12 89.19
Tahun dasar kelompok bawah 49.31 90.51
2. METODE TREN MOMEN 48.80 87.72
3. METODE TREN KUADRAT TERKECIL 48.84 87.80
4. METODE TREN GARIS LENGKUNG 50.76 89.25
ESTIMASI KOTA PP PRODUK XX = 2. METODE TREN MOMEN
ESTIMASI KOTA PP PRODUK YY = 2. METODE TREN MOMEN
ESTIMASI KOTA QQ PRODUK XX = 3. METODE TREN KUADRAT TERKECIL
ESTIMASI KOTA QQ PRODUK YY = 3. METODE TREN KUADRAT TERKECIL
 a. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK ATAS (PP - YY)
Jakarta Produk = Q
N Y X Y' = 12,492.50 + 3.66 (X) Y - Y'
1 2016.I 12,445.00 -2 12,485.19 = 12,492.50 + 3.66 -2 -40.19
2 2016.II 12,625.00 -1 12,488.84 = 12,492.50 + 3.66 -1 136.16
3 2016.III 12,375.00 1 12,496.16 = 12,492.50 + 3.66 1 -121.16
4 2016.IV 12,525.00 2 12,499.81 = 12,492.50 + 3.66 2 25.19
5 2017.I 12,575.00 3 12,503.47 = 12,492.50 + 3.66 3 71.53
6 2017.II 12,575.00 4 12,507.13 = 12,492.50 + 3.66 4 67.88
7 2017.III 12,552.00 5 12,510.78 = 12,492.50 + 3.66 5 41.22
8 2017.IV 12,385.00 6 12,514.44 = 12,492.50 + 3.66 6 -129.44
Jumlah
dibagi n
SKE =

b. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK BAWAH (PP - YY)

Jakarta Produk = Q
N Y X Y'= = 12,521.75 + -3.66 (X) Y - Y'
1 2016.I 12,445 -6 12,543.69 = 12,521.75 + -3.66 -6.00 -98.69
2 2016.II 12,625 -5 12,540.03 = 12,521.75 + -3.66 -5.00 84.97
3 2016.III 12,375 -4 12,536.38 = 12,521.75 + -3.66 -4.00 -161.38
4 2016.IV 12,525 -3 12,532.72 = 12,521.75 + -3.66 -3.00 -7.72
5 2017.I 12,575 -2 12,529.06 = 12,521.75 + -3.66 -2.00 45.94
6 2017.II 12,575 -1 12,525.41 = 12,521.75 + -3.66 -1.00 49.59
7 2017.III 12,552 1 12,518.09 = 12,521.75 + -3.66 1.00 33.91
8 2017.IV 12,385 2 12,514.44 = 12,521.75 + -3.66 2.00 -129.44
Jumlah
dibagi n
SKE =

Surabaya Surabaya
P Q P Q

84.25 96.42
205.15 96.33
53.28 96.07 8,999.86
59.28 96.18 17,989.50
59.63 97.07
26,989.36
Y' = 17,989.50 17,990
Y' = 49,999.57 50,000
Y' = 8,917.67
Y' = 19,984.33
 a. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK ATAS (QQ - XX)
Surabaya Produk = P
(Y-Y)2 N Y X Y' = 1,965.00 + 19 (X) Y - Y'
1,615.04 1 2016.I 1,850 -2 1,926.50 = 1,965.00 + 19 -2 -76.50
18,538.52 2 2016.II 1,960 -1 1,945.75 = 1,965.00 + 19 -1 14.25
14,678.84 3 2016.III 2,025 1 1,984.25 = 1,965.00 + 19 1 40.75
634.41 4 2016.IV 2,025 2 2,003.50 = 1,965.00 + 19 2 21.50
5,116.72 5 2017.I 2,050 3 2,022.75 = 1,965.00 + 19 3 27.25
4,607.02 6 2017.II 2,000 4 2,042.00 = 1,965.00 + 19 4 -42.00
1,698.99 7 2017.III 2,150 5 2,061.25 = 1,965.00 + 19 5 88.75
16,754.07 8 2017.IV 2,276 6 2,080.50 = 1,965.00 + 19 6 195.50
63,643.59 Jumlah
7,955.45 dibagi n
89.19 SKE =

b. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK BAWAH (QQ - XX)

Surabaya Produk = P
(Y-Y)2 N Y X Y' = 2,119.00 + -19.25 (X) Y - Y'
9,739.22 1 2016.I 1,850 -6 2,234.50 = 2,119.00 + -19 -6 -384.50
7,219.69 2 2016.II 1,960 -5 2,215.25 = 2,119.00 + -19 -5 -255.25
26,041.89 3 2016.III 2,025 -4 2,196.00 = 2,119.00 + -19 -4 -171.00
59.58 4 2016.IV 2,025 -3 2,176.75 = 2,119.00 + -19 -3 -151.75
2,110.25 5 2017.I 2,050 -2 2,157.50 = 2,119.00 + -19 -2 -107.50
2,459.54 6 2017.II 2,000 -1 2,138.25 = 2,119.00 + -19 -1 -138.25
1,149.63 7 2017.III 2,150 1 2,099.75 = 2,119.00 + -19 1 50.25
16,754.07 8 2017.IV 2,276 2 2,080.50 = 2,119.00 + -19 2 195.50
65,533.88 Jumlah
8,191.73 dibagi n
90.51 SKE =
 a. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK ATAS (QQ - YY)
Surabaya Produk = Q
(Y-Y)2 N Y X Y' = 4,987.50 + -1 (X)
5,852.25 1 2016.I 5,050 -2 4,988.50 = 4,987.50 + -1 -2
203.06 2 2016.II 4,975 -1 4,988.00 = 4,987.50 + -1 -1
1,660.56 3 2016.III 4,850 1 4,987.00 = 4,987.50 + -1 1
462.25 4 2016.IV 5,075 2 4,986.50 = 4,987.50 + -1 2
742.56 5 2017.I 4,875 3 4,986.00 = 4,987.50 + -1 3
1,764.00 6 2017.II 5,100 4 4,985.50 = 4,987.50 + -1 4
7,876.56 7 2017.III 4,884 5 4,985.00 = 4,987.50 + -1 5
38,220.25 8 2017.IV 5,075 6 4,984.50 = 4,987.50 + -1 6
56,781.50
7,097.69 dibagi n
84.25

b. TAHUN DASAR KELOMPOK BAWAH (QQ - YY)

(Y-Y)2 N Y X Y' = 4,983.50 + 0.50 (X)

147,840.25 1 2016.I 5,050 -6 4,980.50 = 4,983.50 + 1 -6
65,152.56 2 2016.II 4,975 -5 4,981.00 4,983.50 + 1 -5
29,241.00 3 2016.III 4,850 -4 4,981.50 4,983.50 + 1 -4
23,028.06 4 2016.IV 5,075 -3 4,982.00 4,983.50 + 1 -3
11,556.25 5 2017.I 4,875 -2 4,982.50 4,983.50 + 1 -2
19,113.06 6 2017.II 5,100 -1 4,983.00 4,983.50 + 1 -1
2,525.06 7 2017.III 4,884 1 4,984.00 4,983.50 + 1 1
38,220.25 8 2017.IV 5,075 2 4,984.50 4,983.50 + 1 2
336,676.50
42,084.56 dibagi n
205.15
 2. METODE TREN MOMEN
a. Jakarta
Produk = P
Y - Y' (Y-Y)2 N Y X Y' = 4,492.58 +
61.50 3,782.25 1 2016.I 4,575 0 4,492.58 = 4,492.58 +
-13.00 169.00 2 2016.II 4,430 1 4,493.52 = 4,492.58 +
-137.00 18,769.00 3 2016.III 4,480 2 4,494.46 = 4,492.58 +
88.50 7,832.25 4 2016.IV 4,520 3 4,495.40 = 4,492.58 +
-111.00 12,321.00 5 2017.I 4,450 4 4,496.35 = 4,492.58 +
114.50 13,110.25 6 2017.II 4,448 5 4,497.29 = 4,492.58 +
-101.00 10,201.00 7 2017.III 4,514 6 4,498.23 = 4,492.58 +
90.50 8,190.25 8 2017.IV 4,550 7 4,499.17 = 4,492.58 +
Jumlah 74,375.00
9,296.88 dibagi n
SKE = 96.42

b. Jakarta
Produk = Q
Y - Y' (Y-Y)2 N Y X Y' = 12,512.75 +
69.50 4,830.25 1 2016.I 12,445 0 12,512.75 = 12,512.75 +
-6.00 36.00 2 2016.II 12,625 1 12,511.14 = 12,512.75 +
-131.50 17,292.25 3 2016.III 12,375 2 12,509.54 = 12,512.75 +
93.00 8,649.00 4 2016.IV 12,525 3 12,507.93 = 12,512.75 +
-107.50 11,556.25 5 2017.I 12,575 4 12,506.32 = 12,512.75 +
117.00 13,689.00 6 2017.II 12,575 5 12,504.71 = 12,512.75 +
-100.00 10,000.00 7 2017.III 12,552 6 12,503.11 = 12,512.75 +
90.50 8,190.25 8 2017.IV 12,385 7 12,501.50 = 12,512.75 +
Jumlah 74,243.00
9,280.38 dibagi n
SKE = 96.33
 c. Surabaya
Produk = P
0.94 (X) Y - Y' (Y-Y)2 N Y X Y' = 1,880.25
0.94 0 82.42 6,792.51 1 2016.I 1,850 0 1,880.25 = 1,880.25
0.94 1 -63.52 4,035.27 2 2016.II 1,960 1 1,926.46 = 1,880.25
0.94 2 -14.46 209.22 3 2016.III 2,025 2 1,972.68 = 1,880.25
0.94 3 24.60 604.93 4 2016.IV 2,025 3 2,018.89 = 1,880.25
0.94 4 -46.35 2,147.88 5 2017.I 2,050 4 2,065.11 = 1,880.25
0.94 5 -49.29 2,429.08 6 2017.II 2,000 5 2,111.32 = 1,880.25
0.94 6 15.77 248.81 7 2017.III 2,150 6 2,157.54 = 1,880.25
0.94 7 50.83 2,584.03 8 2017.IV 2,276 7 2,203.75 = 1,880.25
Jumlah 19,051.73
dibagi n 2,381.47
SKE = 48.80

d. Surabaya
Produk = Q
-1.61 (X) Y - Y' (Y-Y)2 N Y X Y' = 4,974.25
-1.61 0 -67.75 4,590.06 1 2016.I 5,050 0 4,974.25 = 4,974
-1.61 1 113.86 12,963.45 2 2016.II 4,975 1 4,977.46 = 4,974
-1.61 2 -134.54 18,099.86 3 2016.III 4,850 2 4,980.68 = 4,974
-1.61 3 17.07 291.43 4 2016.IV 5,075 3 4,983.89 = 4,974
-1.61 4 68.68 4,716.75 5 2017.I 4,875 4 4,987.11 = 4,974
-1.61 5 70.29 4,940.08 6 2017.II 5,100 5 4,990.32 = 4,974
-1.61 6 48.89 2,390.51 7 2017.III 4,884 6 4,993.54 = 4,974
-1.61 7 -116.50 13,572.25 8 2017.IV 5,075 7 4,996.75 = 4,974
Jumlah 61,564.39
dibagi n 7,695.55
SKE = 87.72
 3. METODE TREN KUADRAT TERKECIL
a. Jakarta
Produk = P
+ 46.21 (X) Y - Y' (Y-Y)2 N Y X Y'
+ 46.21 0 -30.25 915.06 1 2016.I 4,575 -4 4,494.68
+ 46.21 1 33.54 1,124.64 2 2016.II 4,430 -3 4,494.98
+ 46.21 2 52.32 2,737.53 3 2016.III 4,480 -2 4,495.28
+ 46.21 3 6.11 37.30 4 2016.IV 4,520 -1 4,495.58
+ 46.21 4 -15.11 228.23 5 2017.I 4,450 1 4,496.18
+ 46.21 5 -111.32 12,392.46 6 2017.II 4,448 2 4,496.48
+ 46.21 6 -7.54 56.79 7 2017.III 4,514 3 4,496.78
+ 46.21 7 72.25 5,220.06 8 2017.IV 4,550 4 4,497.08
Jumlah 22,712.07
dibagi n 2,839.01
SKE = 53.28

b. Jakarta
Produk = Q
+ 3.21 (X) Y - Y' (Y-Y)2 N Y X Y'
+ 3.21 0 75.75 5,738.06 1.00 2016.I 12,445.00 -4.00 12,507.73
+ 3.21 1 -2.46 6.07 2.00 2016.II 12,625.00 -3.00 12,507.58
+ 3.21 2 -130.68 17,076.89 3.00 2016.III 12,375.00 -2.00 12,507.43
+ 3.21 3 91.11 8,300.51 4.00 2016.IV 12,525.00 -1.00 12,507.28
+ 3.21 4 -112.11 12,568.01 5.00 2017.I 12,575.00 1.00 12,506.98
+ 3.21 5 109.68 12,029.39 6.00 2017.II 12,575.00 2.00 12,506.83
+ 3.21 6 -109.54 11,998.07 7.00 2017.III 12,552.00 3.00 12,506.68
+ 3.21 7 78.25 6,123.06 8.00 2017.IV 12,385.00 4.00 12,506.53
Jumlah 73,840.07
dibagi n 9,230.01
SKE = 96.07
RAT TERKECIL
c. Surabaya
Produk = P
= 4,495.88 + 0.30 (X) Y - Y' (Y-Y)2 N Y X
= 4,495.88 + 0.30 -4 80.32 6,452.11 1 2016.I 1,850 -4
= 4,495.88 + 0.30 -3 -64.98 4,221.75 2 2016.II 1,960 -3
= 4,495.88 + 0.30 -2 -15.27 233.33 3 2016.III 2,025 -2
= 4,495.88 + 0.30 -1 24.43 596.58 4 2016.IV 2,025 -1
= 4,495.88 + 0.30 1 -46.18 2,132.13 5 2017.I 2,050 1
= 4,495.88 + 0.30 2 -48.48 2,349.83 6 2017.II 2,000 2
= 4,495.88 + 0.30 3 17.23 296.70 7 2017.III 2,150 3
= 4,495.88 + 0.30 4 52.93 2,801.06 8 2017.IV 2,276 4
Jumlah 19,083.48
dibagi n 2,385.43
SKE = 48.84

d. Surabaya
Produk = Q
= 12,507.13 + -0.15 (X) Y - Y' (Y-Y)2 N Y X
= 12,507.13 + -0.15 -4 -62.73 3,934.43 1.00 2016.I 5,050.00 -4.00
= 12,507.13 + -0.15 -3 117.43 13,788.63 2.00 2016.II 4,975.00 -3.00
= 12,507.13 + -0.15 -2 -132.43 17,536.38 3.00 2016.III 4,850.00 -2.00
= 12,507.13 + -0.15 -1 17.73 314.18 4.00 2016.IV 5,075.00 -1.00
= 12,507.13 + -0.15 1 68.02 4,627.40 5.00 2017.I 4,875.00 1.00
= 12,507.13 + -0.15 2 68.17 4,647.83 6.00 2017.II 5,100.00 2.00
= 12,507.13 + -0.15 3 45.33 2,054.36 7.00 2017.III 4,884.00 3.00
= 12,507.13 + -0.15 4 -121.53 14,768.33 8.00 2017.IV 5,075.00 4.00
Jumlah 61,671.52
dibagi n 7,708.94
SKE = 87.80
 4. METODE TREN GARIS LEN

a. Jakarta
Produk =
Y' = 2,042.00 + 37.48 (X) Y - Y' (Y-Y)2 N Y
1,892.07 = 2,042.00 + 37.48 -4 -42.07 1,769.60 1 2016.I 4,575
1,929.55 = 2,042.00 + 37.48 -3 30.45 927.20 2 2016.II 4,430
1,967.03 = 2,042.00 + 37.48 -2 57.97 3,360.13 3 2016.III 4,480
2,004.52 = 2,042.00 + 37.48 -1 20.48 419.57 4 2016.IV 4,520
2,079.48 = 2,042.00 + 37.48 1 -29.48 869.27 5 2017.I 4,450
2,116.97 = 2,042.00 + 37.48 2 -116.97 13,681.20 6 2017.II 4,448
2,154.45 = 2,042.00 + 37.48 3 -4.45 19.80 7 2017.III 4,514
2,191.93 = 2,042.00 + 37.48 4 84.07 7,067.20 8 2017.IV 4,550
Jumlah 28,113.98
dibagi n 3,514.25
SKE = 59.28

b. Jakarta
Produk =
Y' = 4,985.50 + 2.12 (X) Y - Y' (Y-Y)2 N Y
4,977.03 = 4,985.50 + 2.12 -4 72.97 5,324.13 1 2016.I 12,445
4,979.15 = 4,985.50 + 2.12 -3 -4.15 17.22 2 2016.II 12,625
4,981.27 = 4,985.50 + 2.12 -2 -131.27 17,230.94 3 2016.III 12,375
4,983.38 = 4,985.50 + 2.12 -1 91.62 8,393.61 4 2016.IV 12,525
4,987.62 = 4,985.50 + 2.12 1 -112.62 12,682.51 5 2017.I 12,575
4,989.73 = 4,985.50 + 2.12 2 110.27 12,158.74 6 2017.II 12,575
4,991.85 = 4,985.50 + 2.12 3 -107.85 11,631.62 7 2017.III 12,552
4,993.97 = 4,985.50 + 2.12 4 81.03 6,566.40 8 2017.IV 12,385
Jumlah 74,005.18
dibagi n 9,250.65
SKE = 96.18

4. METODE TREN GARIS LEN

DE TREN GARIS LENGKUNG

c. Kota QQ- Pro

P
X Y' = 4,454.44 + 0.30 (X) + 5.53 (X)2 Y - Y' (Y-Y)2
-4 4,480.86 = 4,454.44 + 0.30 -4 + 5.53 16 94.14 8,861.96 1.00
-3 4,481.16 = 4,454.44 + 0.30 -3 + 5.53 9 -51.16 2,617.55 2.00
-2 4,481.46 = 4,454.44 + 0.30 -2 + 5.53 4 -1.46 2.14 3.00
-1 4,481.76 = 4,454.44 + 0.30 -1 + 5.53 1 38.24 1,462.14 4.00
1 4,482.36 = 4,454.44 + 0.30 1 + 5.53 1 -32.36 1,047.30 5.00
2 4,482.66 = 4,454.44 + 0.30 2 + 5.53 4 -34.66 1,201.46 6.00
3 4,482.96 = 4,454.44 + 0.30 3 + 5.53 9 31.04 963.36 7.00
4 4,483.26 = 4,454.44 + 0.30 4 + 5.53 16 66.74 4,453.96 8.00
5 Jumlah 20,609.86
dibagi n 2,576.23
SKE = 50.76

d. Kota QQ - Pro
Q
X Y' = 12,555.22 + -0.15 (X) + -6.41 (X)2 Y - Y' (Y-Y)2
-4 12,523.76 = 12,555.22 + -0.15 -4 + -6.41 16 -78.76 6,202.66 1.00
-3 12,523.61 = 12,555.22 + -0.15 -3 + -6.41 9 101.39 10,280.55 2.00
-2 12,523.46 = 12,555.22 + -0.15 -2 + -6.41 4 -148.46 22,039.47 3.00
-1 12,523.31 = 12,555.22 + -0.15 -1 + -6.41 1 1.69 2.87 4.00
1 12,523.01 = 12,555.22 + -0.15 1 + -6.41 1 51.99 2,703.27 5.00
2 12,522.86 = 12,555.22 + -0.15 2 + -6.41 4 52.14 2,718.89 6.00
3 12,522.71 = 12,555.22 + -0.15 3 + -6.41 9 29.29 858.08 7.00
4 12,522.56 = 12,555.22 + -0.15 4 + -6.41 16 -137.56 18,921.92 8.00
5 Jumlah 63,727.72
dibagi n 7,965.96
SKE = 89.25

DE TREN GARIS LENGKUNG

c. Kota QQ- Produk XX

N Y X Y'= 2,022.78 + 37.48 (X) + 2.56 (X)2 Y - Y' (Y-Y)2

2016.I 1,850.00 -4.00 1,885.66 -35.66 1,271.75
2016.II 1,960.00 -3.00 1,923.14 36.86 1,358.29
2016.III 2,025.00 -2.00 1,960.63 64.37 4,143.72
2016.IV 2,025.00 -1.00 1,998.11 26.89 722.98
2017.I 2,050.00 1.00 2,073.08 -23.08 532.61
2017.II 2,000.00 2.00 2,110.56 -110.56 12,223.87
2017.III 2,150.00 3.00 2,148.04 1.96 3.82
2017.IV 2,276.00 4.00 2,185.53 90.47 8,185.13
5.00 Jumlah 28,442.18
dibagi n 3,555.27
SKE = 59.63

d. Kota QQ - Produk YY

N Y X Y'= 4,946.23 + 2.12 (X) + 5.24 (X)2 Y - Y' (Y-Y)2

2016.I 5,050.00 -4.00 4,963.94 86.06 7,405.94
2016.II 4,975.00 -3.00 4,966.06 8.94 79.94
2016.III 4,850.00 -2.00 4,968.18 -118.18 13,965.47
2016.IV 5,075.00 -1.00 4,970.29 104.71 10,963.71
2017.I 4,875.00 1.00 4,974.53 -99.53 9,905.34
2017.II 5,100.00 2.00 4,976.64 123.36 15,217.13
2017.III 4,884.00 3.00 4,978.76 -94.76 8,979.25
2017.IV 5,075.00 4.00 4,980.88 94.12 8,859.41
5.00 Jumlah 75,376.20
dibagi n 9,422.02
SKE = 97.07
5. METODE TREN REGRESI DAN KORELASI

a. Kota PP- Produk XX

N Y X Y'= 0.00 + 0.00 (X)

1.00 2016.I -4.00 0.00 4,482.06
2.00 2016.II -3.00 0.00 4,482.06
3.00 2016.III -2.00 0.00 4,482.06
4.00 2016.IV -1.00 0.00 4,482.06
5.00 2017.I 1.00 0.00 4,482.06
6.00 2017.II 2.00 0.00 4,482.06
7.00 2017.III 3.00 0.00 4,482.06
8.00 2017.IV 4.00 0.00 4,482.06
5.00
dibagi n

b. Kota PP- Produk YY

N Y X Y'= 0.00 + 0.00 (X)

1.00 2016.I 0.00 0.00 12,523.16
2.00 2016.II 0.00 0.00 12,523.16
3.00 2016.III 0.00 0.00 12,523.16
4.00 2016.IV 0.00 0.00 12,523.16
5.00 2017.I 0.00 0.00 12,523.16
6.00 2017.II 0.00 0.00 12,523.16
7.00 2017.III 0.00 0.00 12,523.16
8.00 2017.IV 0.00 0.00 12,523.16
5.00
dibagi n
 c. Kota QQ- Produk XX

+ 0.00 (X)2 Y - Y' (Y-Y)2 N Y X

-4,486.06 ### 1.00 2016.I 0.00 0.00
-4,485.06 ### 2.00 2016.II 0.00 0.00
-4,484.06 ### 3.00 2016.III 0.00 0.00
-4,483.06 ### 4.00 2016.IV 0.00 0.00
-4,481.06 ### 5.00 2017.I 0.00 0.00
-4,480.06 ### 6.00 2017.II 0.00 0.00
-4,479.06 ### 7.00 2017.III 0.00 0.00
-4,478.06 ### 8.00 2017.IV 0.00 0.00
Jumlah ### 5.00
###
SKE = 4,482.06

d. Kota QQ - Produk YY

+ 0.00 (X)2 Y - Y' (Y-Y)2 N Y X

### ### 1.00 2016.I 0.00 0.00
### ### 2.00 2016.II 0.00 0.00
### ### 3.00 2016.III 0.00 0.00
### ### 4.00 2016.IV 0.00 0.00
### ### 5.00 2017.I 0.00 0.00
### ### 6.00 2017.II 0.00 0.00
### ### 7.00 2017.III 0.00 0.00
### ### 8.00 2017.IV 0.00 0.00
Jumlah ### 5.00
###
SKE = 12,523.16
Y'= 0.00 + 0.00 (X) + 0.00 (X)2 Y - Y' (Y-Y)2
2,035.59 -2,035.59 ###
2,035.59 -2,035.59 ###
2,035.59 -2,035.59 ###
2,035.59 -2,035.59 ###
2,035.59 -2,035.59 ###
2,035.59 -2,035.59 ###
2,035.59 -2,035.59 ###
2,035.59 -2,035.59 ###
Jumlah ###
dibagi n ###
SKE = 2,035.59

Y'= 0.00 + 0.00 (X) + 0.00 (X)2 Y - Y' (Y-Y)2

4,972.41 -4,972.41 ###
4,972.41 -4,972.41 ###
4,972.41 -4,972.41 ###
4,972.41 -4,972.41 ###
4,972.41 -4,972.41 ###
4,972.41 -4,972.41 ###
4,972.41 -4,972.41 ###
4,972.41 -4,972.41 ###
Jumlah ###
dibagi n ###
SKE = 4,972.41
HASIL SKE
KOTA PP KOTA PP
PRODUK-XX PRODUK-YY

SKE Y' SKE

1. METODE TREN SETENGAH RATA-RATA 49.12 17,967 89.19
2. METODE TREN MOMEN 48.80 18,000 87.72
3. METODE TREN KUADRAT TERKECIL 48.84 17,990 87.80
4. METODE TREN GARIS LENGKUNG 50.76 18,376 89.25

SKE TERKECIL / TERPILIH 48.80 18,000 87.72

TARGET PENJUALAN (PEMBULATAN) 18,000

SELISIH 0
 KOTA PP KOTA QQ KOTA QQ
PRODUK-YY PRODUK-XX PRODUK-YY

Y' SKE Y' SKE Y'

50,072 84.25 8,399 96.42 19,936
50,000 53.28 9,000 96.07 20,000
50,026 59.28 8,918 96.18 19,984
49,577 59.63 9,097 97.07 20,351

50,000 53.28 9,000 96.07 20,000

50,000 9,000 20,000

0 0 0
1. ANGGARAN PENJUALAN MENURUT PRODUK DAN DAERAH
PENJUALAN
DAERAH P Q
PENJUALAN UNIT HARGA JUMLAH UNIT HARGA JUMLAH

Jakarta 18,000 25,000 450,000,000 50,000 14,500 725,000,000

Makasar 9,000 25,000 225,000,000 20,000 14,500 290,000,000
JUMLAH 27,000 675,000,000 70,000 1,015,000,000

SOAL
Perusahaan Industri ZZ memproduksi barang P dan Q. Barang tersebut dijual di Jakarta dan Makasar. Bahan yang diginakan ad
Rencana penjualan dan harga, di Jakarta dan Makasar
P Q
Jakarta 18,000 50,000
Makasar 9,000 20,000
Harga/ unit 25,000 14,500

Persediaan Barang Jadi

Produk Persediaan Harga Persediaan Harga
Awal Akhir
P 500 Rp17,500 800 Rp19,000
Q 900 Rp17,500 600 Rp19,000

Keperluan bahan tiap unit barang yang diproduksi (standard usage rate/ SUR) :
A B C
P 2 3 0
Q 0 1 2
Taksiran Biaya Bahan Rp 2,400 Rp 800 Rp 650

Persediaan Bahan A, B dan C :

Bahan Persediaan Harga Persediaan Harga
Awal Akhir
A 3,000 Rp 2,400 4000 Rp 2,400
B 6,000 Rp 800 7500 Rp 800
C 5,000 Rp 650 6000 Rp 650

Taksiran Baiay Tenaga kerja langsung per unit :

P Q
Depatemen Pemotongan Rp 4,000 Rp 3,500
Depatemen Finishing Rp 6,500 Rp 3,500
 2. ANGGARAN PRODUKSI MENURUT PRODUK
KETERANGAN P Q
RENCANA PENJUALAN 27,000 70,000
TOTAL (000)
PERSEDIAAN AKHIR (+) 800 600
JUMLAH 27,800 70,600
1,175,000,000 PERSEDIAAN AWAL (-) 500 900
515,000,000 RENCANA PRODUKSI 27,300 69,700
1,690,000,000

n Makasar. Bahan yang diginakan adalah bahan A, B dan C

3. ANGGARAN KEBUTUHAN BAHAN BAKU
BAHAN A BAHAN B BAHAN C
BARANG PRODUKSI
SUR KEBUTUHAN SUR KEBUTUHAN SUR
P 27,300 2 54,600 3 81,900 0
Q 69,700 0 0 1 69,700 2
JUMLAH 54,600 151,600

4. ANGGARAN PEMBELIAN BAHAN BAKU

KETERANGAN BAHAN A BAHAN B BAHAN C
KEBUTUHAN 54,600 151,600 139,400
PERSEDIAAN AKHIR (+) 4,000 7,500 6,000
BAHAN YANG TERSEDIA 58,600 159,100 145,400
PERSEDIAAN AWAL (-) 3,000 6,000 5,000
RENCANA PEMBELIAN 55,600 153,100 140,400
HARGA PER UNIT (X) 2,400 800 650
NILAI PEMBELIAN 133,440,000 122,480,000 91,260,000

5. ANGGARAN HARGA POKOK BAHAN BAKU

P Q
BAHAN
KEBUTUHAN HARGA TOTAL KEBUTUHAN HARGA TOTAL
A 54,600 2,400 131,040,000 0 2,400 0
B 81,900 800 65,520,000 69,700 800 55,760,000
C 0 650 0 139,400 650 90,610,000
JUMLAH 196,560,000 146,370,000

) cetak tebal masuk ke (9) Harga Pokok Produksi dan Harga pokok penjualan
 6. ANGGARAN KEBUTUHAN TENAGA KERJA LANGSUNG
BAHAN C DEPATEMEN I DEPATERMEN II
PRODUK PRODUKSI
KEBUTUHAN TARIF TOTAL TARIF
0 P 27,300 4,000 109,200,000 6,500
139,400 Q 69,700 3,500 243,950,000 3,500
139,400 JUMLAH 353,150,000

) cetak tebal masuk ke (9) Harga Pokok Produksi dan Harga pokok penjualan
BAHAN C
139,400
6,000 s 7. ANGGARAN BIAYA OVERHEAD PABRIK
145,400 DEPATEMEN I DEPATERMEN II
PRODUK PRODUKSI
5,000 s TARIF TOTAL TARIF
140,400 P 27,300 1,400 38,220,000 900
650 Q 69,700 1,200 83,640,000 850
91,260,000 JUMLAH 121,860,000

TOTAL
KEBUTUHAN JUMLAH Rp
54,600 131,040,000
151,600 121,280,000
139,400 90,610,000
345,600 342,930,000
AGA KERJA LANGSUNG 8. SKEDUL PERSEDIAAN AWAL DAN PERSEDIAAN AKHIR
DEPATERMEN II PERSEDIAAN AWAL
JUMLAH ELEMEN
TOTAL UNIT Rp TOTAL
177,450,000 286,650,000 BAHAN DALAM PROSES
243,950,000 487,900,000 BAHAN A 3,000 2,400 7,200,000
421,400,000 774,550,000 BAHAN B 6,000 800 4,800,000
BAHAN C 5,000 650 3,250,000
SUB-JUMLAH 15,250,000
dan Harga pokok penjualan
PRODUK JADI
P 500 17,500 8,750,000
D PABRIK Q 900 12,000 10,800,000
DEPATERMEN II SUB-JUMLAH 19,550,000
JUMLAH
TOTAL JUMLAH 34,800,000
24,570,000 62,790,000
59,245,000 142,885,000
83,815,000 205,675,000
N PERSEDIAAN AKHIR 9. HARGA POKOK PRODUKSI DAN HARGA POKOK PEN
PERSEDIAAN AKHIR KETERANGAN P Q
UNIT Rp TOTAL HARGA POKOK PRODUKSI
BAHAN BAKU
4,000 2,400 9,600,000 A 131,040,000 0
7,500 800 6,000,000 B 65,520,000 55,760,000
6,000 650 3,900,000 C 0 90,610,000
19,500,000 SUB-JUMLAH 196,560,000 146,370,000
TENAGA KERJA LANGSUNG
DEPARTEMEN I 109,200,000 243,950,000
800 19,000 15,200,000 DEPARTEMEN II 177,450,000 243,950,000

600 13,000 7,800,000 SUB-JUMLAH 286,650,000 487,900,000

23,000,000 BIAYA OVERHEAD PABRIK
42,500,000 DEPARTEMEN I 38,220,000 83,640,000
DEPARTEMEN II 24,570,000 59,245,000
SUB-JUMLAH 62,790,000 142,885,000
HARGA POKOK PRODUKSI 546,000,000 777,155,000
PERSEDIAAN AWAL (+) 8,750,000 10,800,000
PRODUK TERSEDIA 554,750,000 787,955,000
PERSEDIAAN AKHIR (-) 15,200,000 7,800,000
HARGA POKOK PENJUALAN 539,550,000 780,155,000
ARGA POKOK PENJUALAN 10. RINGKASAN LABA-RUGI
JUMLAH KETERANGAN JUMLAH
PENJUALAN
Jakarta 1,175,000,000
131,040,000 T5 Makasar 515,000,000
121,280,000 T5 SU-JUMLAH 1,690,000,000
90,610,000 T5 HARGA POKOK PENJUALAN 1,319,705,000
342,930,000 LABA KOTOR 370,295,000
BIAYA OPERASI
353,150,000 T6 BIAYA ADMINISTRASI 65,000,000
421,400,000 T6 BIAYA DISTRIBUSI (+) 110,000,000
774,550,000 JUMLAH BIAYA OPERASI (-) 175,000,000
LABA OPERASI 195,295,000
121,860,000 T7 BIAYA LAIN-LAIN (-) 4,137,000
83,815,000 T7 LABA SEBELUM PAJAK 191,158,000
205,675,000 PAJAK PENGHASILAN 30% (-) 57,347,400
1,323,155,000 LABA SETELAH PAJAK 133,810,600
19,550,000 T8
1,342,705,000
23,000,000 T8
1,319,705,000

11. ANGGARAN LABA DITAHAN

SALDO AWAL 132,000,000
LABA SETELAH PAJAK (+) 133,810,600 T10
JUMLAH 265,810,600
PEMBAYARAN DEVIDEN (-) 65,000,000
SALDO AKHIR 200,810,600
 P Q

450,000,000 725,000,000 T1
225,000,000 290,000,000 T1
675,000,000 1,015,000,000 T1
539,550,000 780,155,000 T9
135,450,000 234,845,000

S
S