Economics View

16 September 2022

Global Economics & Market Strategy

Indonesia: Momentum Ekspor Akan Melambat Di Semester-II

Senior Economist
Tautan ke laporan asli: https://tinyurl.com/2euxfjcb Barnabas Gan
+65 6320 0804
 Kami mempertahankan asumsi kami akan perlambatan momentum barnabas.gan@rhbgroup.com
ekspor di Semester-II yang disebabkan oleh harga komoditas yang
stabil-cenderung-turun seiring dengan melambatnya aktivitas
perdagangan dunia.

 Kami tidak merubah outlook pertumbuhan GDP tahun 2022-23

sebesar 5,0% dan 4,1%. Selain itu, melambatnya momentum ekspor
Indonesia konsisten dengan tren ekspor mayoritas negara Asia
lainnya.

 Ekspor Indonesia bulan Agustus ’22 melambat ke 30,2% YoY, meski

melebihi asumsi Bloomberg di 19,9%. Kami tidak merubah asumsi
nominal ekspor dan impor tahun 2022 yang masih tumbuh ke 30%
YoY dan 25%.

Figure 1: Momentum ekspor kembali naik namun masih Figure 2: Momentum di ekspor komoditas terlihat
dibawah level bulan April ‘22 tertekan sejak awal tahun

Exports Imports Agriculture Manufacturing

15% Refined Oil Crude Oil
40%
10% 35%
30%
MoM SA (3MMA)

MoM SA (3MMA)

5% 25%
20%
0% 15%
10%
5%
-5% 0%
-5%
-10% -10%
-15%
Jul-21

Jul-22
May-21

May-22
Mar-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Mar-22
Jan-21

Jan-22

-15%
Jul-22
Jul-20

Jul-21
Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22
Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22
Oct-20

Oct-21

Source: CEIC, RHB Economics & Market Strategy Source: CEIC, RHB Economics & Market Strategy

See important disclosures at the end of this report

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16 September 2022

Perlambatan pertumbuhan ekspor dalam dua bulan berturut-turut

Kami perkirakan momentum ekspor dapat melambat di Semester-II yang disebabkan oleh stabilnya harga
komoditas ditengah penurunan aktivitas perdagangan dunia. Harga komoditas terus turun dalam dua minggu
pertama di September ’22, seperti CPO (-12,7% YoY), metal1 (-8,1% YoY) dan gas alam (-6,2% YoY), meskipun batubara
tetap di level yang cukup tinggi (+12,6% YoY) seiring dengan harga energi yang masih tinggi. Indonesia juga menurunkan
harga acuan CPO ke USD846,32/ton di bulan September (1H22: USD929,66/ton) seiring dengan penurunan harga CPO
dunia.
Kami tidak merubah estimasi GDP tahun 2022-23 sebesar 5,0% dan 4,1%. Kami menaikkan asumsi laju inflasi dan
inflasi ini tahun 2022 sebesar 6,0% (dari 4,0%) dan 4,0% (dari 3,0%) dan tahun 2023 sebesar 7,0% (dari 2,4%) dan 4,5%
(dari 2,0%) seiring dengan kenaikan harga bahan bakar. Kami juga merubah asumsi BI rate tahun 2023 ke 4,75% (dari
4,50%) dan tidak merubah asumsi tahun 2022 di 4,25% (saat ini 3,75%).
Melambatnya ekspor Indonesia masih sesuai dengan tren mayoritas negara Asia lainnya. Pada bulan Juli ’22,
ekspor Thailand turun 1,4% YoY, sementara ekspor bukan migas Singapura naik 7,0% YoY (vs +29,2% YoY di
Nopember ’21). Kami juga perkirakan momentum ekspor Malaysia akan ikut melambat di Semester-II (Juli ’22: -8,2%
MoM). Lebih detail bisa melihat laporan kami sebelumnya.2 Selain itu, Pemerintah Indonesia dikabarkan sedang mengkaji
penerapan pajak nikel di 2022 untuk meningkatkan kapasitas pengolahan nikel dalam negeri, yang jika diterapkan akan
membatasi tingkat ekspor nikel dari Indonesia.
Impor akan tetap tinggi seiring dengan masuknya modal asing, tingkat konsumsi dan pengiriman barang
setengah jadi. Momentum impor tetap solid di 3,1% MoM (Juli ’22: 3,8%) yang mayoritas didorong oleh impor barang
modal yang naik USD543,9 juta (18,1% MoM), diikuti oleh konsumsi yang naik ke USD202,3 juta (12,2% MoM) dan dan
barang setengah jadi sebesar USD59,2 juta (0,3% MoM). Meski nilai ekspor naik ke level tertinggi di USD27,9 miliar,
pertumbuhan ekspor mulai melambat ke 1,9% MoM (vs Maret ’22: +19,5% MoM). Ekspor bahan bakar mineral mencatat
penurunan terbesar dari semua kategori dengan turun 6,7% MoM (USD368,5 juta).
Ekspor Indonesia melambat dalam dua bulan berturut-turut ke 30,2% YoY di bulan Agustus ’22, meski melebihi
perkiraan Bloomberg di 19,9%. Hal ini berdampak pada surplus neraca dagang sebesar USD5,76 miliar di bulan
Agustus ’22, naik dari surplus USD4,22 miliar di bulan Juli ’22. Ekspor non migas mencatat porsi yang cukup besar dari
total ekspor di USD26,2 miliar (+28,4% YoY), jika dibandingkan dengan ekspor migas sebesar USD1,7 miliar (+64,5%
YoY). Secara kumulatif, ekspor bulan Januari-Agustus ’22 mencapai USD194,6 miliar (+35,4% YoY), sementara ekspor
non migas mencapai USD183,73 miliar (+35,2% YoY). Kami mempertahankan outlook nominal ekspor dan impor yang
akan tumbuh 30% YoY dan 25% YoY di tahun 2022.

1
Metals consist of average prices of copper, nickel, iron ore, zinc, aluminum, lead and tin
2
RHB Bank Berhad, Trade Performance Began to Show Signs of Slowdown, 19 August 2022
2
RHB Bank Berhad, NODX Momentum to Slow In 2H22, 17 August 2022
2
RHB Bank Berhad, Keeping 2022 GDP Forecast at 3.0%, 1 September 2022

See important disclosures at the end of this report

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