Nama :

AldaFi
j
riant
i

Ni
m :
210902501014

Kel
as :
A

Pr
odi :
Pendi
dikanAkunt
ansi

Tugas7St
ati
sti
kLanj
utan

1.Ber
ikutadal
ahper
kembanganPr
odukDomest
ikBr
uto(
PDB)I
ndonesi
adi
atas
dasarhar
gakonst
an(
2002=100)t
ahun2004–2012(
Rpt
ri
li
un)

Tahun PDB

2004 1.
656,
52

2005 1.
750,
82

2006 1.
847,
13

2007 1.
964,
33

2008 2.
082,
46

2009 2.
178,
85

2010 2.
314,
46

2011 2.
464,
68

2012 2.
618,
14

a)Buatper
samaant
rendengan4met
odey
angada.

b)Manakahdar
ikeempatmet
odet
ersebuty
angl
ebi
hbai
k?Jel
askanj
awaban
anda

c)Dengan menggunakan met

ode y
ang pal
i
ng bai
k,ber
apa PDB I
ndonesi
a
t
ahun2015&2020

Jawab

a)Buatper
samaat
rendengan4met
odey
angada
1.Met
odeSemiRat
a-r
ata

 Membagi
dat
amenj
adi
2kel
ompok

Tahun PDB

2004 1.
656,
52

2005 1.
750,
82

K1 2006 1.
847,
13

2007 1.
964,
33

2008 2.
082,
46

2009 2.
178,
85

K2 2010 2.
314,
46

2011 2.
464,
68

2012 2.
618,
14

 Menghi
tungr
ata-
rat
ati
apkel
ompok

K1=a1=(
1.656,
52+1.
750,
82+1.
847,
13+1.
964,
33+2.
082,
46)
/5

=9.
301,
26/
5

= 1.
860,
25

K2=a2=(
2.082,
46+2.
178,
85+2.
314,
46+2.
464,
68+2.
082,
46)
/5

=11.
658,
59/
5

=2.
331,
72

 Menghi
tungni
l
aiper
ubahan

K2-
K1 2.
331,
72-
1860,
25
b= =
Tahundasar2-
Tahundasar1 2010-
2007

589,
33
= =157,
16
3

Jadi
per
samaant
renadal
ah
  Y'=1.
860,
25+157,
16X,
dengant
ahundasar2007at
au

 Y'=2.
331,
71+157,
16X,
dengant
ahundasar2010

2.Met
odeKuadr
atTer
keci
l

Tahun PDB=Y KodeX Y.

X X2
(
Tahun)

2004 1.
656,
52 -
4 -
6626,
08 16

2005 1.
750,
82 -
3 -
5252,
46 9

2006 1.
847,
13 -
2 -
3694,
26 4

2007 1.
964,
33 -
1 -
1964,
33 1

2008 2.
082,
46 0 0 0

2009 2.
178,
85 1 2178,
85 1

2010 2.
314,
46 2 4628,
92 4

2011 2.
464,
68 3 7394,
04 9

2012 2.
618,
14 4 10472,
56 16

∑Y= ∑Y.
X= ∑X2=60
18.
877,
39 7.
137,
24

∑Y 18.
877,
39
Ni
l
aia= = =2.
097,
49
n 9

∑YX 7.
137,
24
Ni
l
aib= 2 = =118,
95
X 60

Jadi
per
samaant
ren=Y'=2.
097,
48+118,
95X

3.Met
odeTr
enKuadr
ati
s

Tahun PDB=Y X X.
Y X2 X2Y X4
 2004 1.
656,
52 -
4 -
6626,
08 16 26.
504,
32 256

2005 1.
750,
82 -
3 -
5252,
46 9 15.
757,
38 81

2006 1.
847,
13 -
2 -
3694,
26 4 7.
388,
52 16

2007 1.
964,
33 -
1 -
1964,
33 1 1.
964,
33 1

2008 2.
082,
46 0 0 0 0 0

2009 2.
178,
85 1 2178,
85 1 2.
178,
85 1

2010 2.
314,
46 2 4628,
92 4 9.
257,
84 16

2011 2.
464,
68 3 7394,
04 9 22.
182,
12 81

2012 2.
618,
14 4 10472,
56 16 41.
890,
24 256

Juml
ah 18.
877,
39 7.
137,
24 60 127.
123,
6 708

∑Y.∑X4-∑X2Y.
∑X2 18.
877,
39×708-127.
123,
6×60
Ni
l
aia= =
n∑X-4
(
∑X)
22
9×708-
602

13.
365.192,12-
7.627.
416
=
6.372-3.
600

5.
737.776,
12
= =2.
069,
90
2.
772

∑XY 7.
137,
24
Ni
l
aib= 2 = =118,
954
∑X 60

n∑X2Y-∑X2.
∑Y 9×127.
123,6-
60×18.877,
39
Ni
l
aic= 22 =
n∑X-4
(
∑X) 9×708-602

1.
144.
112,4-
1.132.
643,
4
=
6.372-
3.600

11.469
= =4,
137
2.
772

Jadiper
samaan kuadr
ati
sny
a adal
ah Y’
=2.
069,
90 + 118,
954X +
137X2
4,

4.Met
odeTr
enEksponsi
al
 Tahun PDB=Y X LnY X2 X.LnY

2004 1.
656,
52 -
4 7,
41 16 -
29,
64

2005 1.
750,
82 -
3 7,
47 9 -
22,
41

2006 1.
847,
13 -
2 7,
52 4 -
15,
04

2007 1.
964,
33 -
1 7,
58 1 -
7,58

2008 2.
082,
46 0 7,
64 0 0

2009 2.
178,
85 1 7,
69 1 7,
69

2010 2.
314,
46 2 7,
75 4 15,
5

2011 2.
464,
68 3 7,
81 9 23,
43

2012 2.
618,
14 4 7,
87 16 31,
48

Juml
ah 18.
877,
39 68,
74 60 3,
43

(∑LnY) 68,
74
Ni
l
aia=ant
iLn =ant
iLn =ant
il 64=2075,
n7, 13
n 9

∑(
X.LnY) 3,
43
Ni
ali
b=ant
iLn 2 -
1=ant
iLn -
1=ant
il
n1,
06-
1=0,
06
∑X 60

Jadi
per
samaaneksponensi
al ahY'=2075,
adal 13( 06)
1+0, X

b)Unt
uk mengukurket
epat
an maka di
per
lukan ni
l
aisel
i
sih ant
ara dat
a
2
per
amal
an y
ang pal
i
ng keci
l
.Apabi
l
a ni
l
ai∑(
Y–Y’
) pal
i
ng keci
l
,maka
met
odet
ersebutdi
rasakanpal
i
ngt
epat
,at
aumempuny
ait
ingkatkesal
ahan
y
angl
ebi
hkeci
l
.

 Met
odesemir
ata-
r a=Y'=1.
at 860,
25+157,
16X

PDB=Y X Y’ Y–Y’ (
Y- )
Y'2

1.
656,
52 -
2 1.
545,
93 110,
59 12230,
15

1.
750,
82 -
1 1.
703,
09 47,
73 2278,
153
 1.
847,
13 0 0 1.
847,
13 3411889

1.
964,
33 1 2.
017,
41 -
53,
08 2817,
486

2.
082,
46 2 2.
174,
57 -
92,
11 8484,
252

2.
178,
85 3 2.
331,
73 -
152,
88 23372,
29

2.
314,
46 4 2.
488,
89 -
174,
43 30425,
82

2.
464,
68 5 2.
646,
05 -
181,
37 32895,
08

2.
618,
14 6 2.
803,
21 -
185,
07 34250,
9

Juml
ah 17.
553,
72 1166,
51 3.
558.
643,
37

 Met
odeKuadr
att
er l=Y'=2.
keci 097,
48+118,
95X

PDB=Y X Y’ Y–Y’ (
Y- )
Y'2

1.
656,
52 -
4 1.
621,
69 34,
83 1.
213,
13

1.
750,
82 -
3 1.
,
740,
64 10,
18 103,
63

1.
847,
13 -
2 1.
859,
59 -
12,
46 155,
25

1.
964,
33 -
1 1.
978,
54 -
14,
21 201,
92

2.
082,
46 0 2.
097,
49 -
15,
03 225,
9

2.
178,
85 1 2.
216,
44 -
37,
59 1.
413,
01

2.
314,
46 2 2.
335,
39 -
20,
93 438,
06

2.
464,
68 3 2.
454,
34 192,
34 36.
994,
68

2.
618,
14 4 2.
573,
29 44,
85 2.
011,
52

Juml
ah 18.
877,
41 181,
98 42.
757,
11

 Met
odeKuadr
ati
s=Y’
=2.
069,
90+118, 137X2
954X+4,

PDB=Y X Y’ Y–Y’ (
Y- )
Y'2

1.
656,
52 -
4 1.
660,
28 -
3,79 14,
11
 1.
750,
82 -
3 1.
750,
27 0,
55 0,
30

1.
847,
13 -
2 1.
848,
54 -
1.41 1,
99

1.
964,
33 -
1 1.
955,
08 9,
25 85,
51

2.
082,
46 0 2.
069,
9 12,
56 157,
75

2.
178,
85 1 2.
192,
99 -
14,
14 199,
97

2.
314,
46 2 2.
324,
36 -
9,90 97,
93

2.
464,
68 3 2.
464 182,
68 33.
373,
81

2.
618,
14 4 2.
611,
91 6,
23 38,
84

18.
877,
39 18.
877,
3 182,
07 33.
970,
20

 Met al=Y'=2075,
odeeksponensi 13( 06)
1+0, X

PDB=Y X Y’ Y–Y’ (
Y- )
Y'2

1.
656,
52 -
4 1.
639,
35 17,
17 294,
72

1.
750,
82 -
3 1.
743,
11 7,
71 59,
46

1.
847,
13 -
2 1.
846,
87 0,
26 0,
07

1.
964,
33 -
1 1.
950,
62 13,
71 187,
90

2.
082,
46 0 2.
075,
13 7,
33 53,
73

2.
178,
85 1 2.
199,
64 -
20,
79 432,
13

2.
314,
46 2 2.
331,
62 -
17,
16 294,
33

2.
464,
68 3 2.
471,
51 175,
17 30.
683,
47

2.
618,
14 4 2.
619,
8 -
1,66 2,
77

18.
877,
39 18.
877,
7 181,
739 32.
008,
57

Ni
l
ai∑(
Y- )
Y'2
Met
oder
ata-
rat
a =3.
558.
643,
37

ni
l
ai∑(
Y- )
Y'2
Met
odekuadr
att
erkeci
l =42.
757,
11
 Ni
l
ai∑(
Y- )
Y'2
Met
odekuadr
ati
s =33.
970,
20

Ni
l
ai∑(
Y- )
Y'2
Met
odeeksponensi
al =32.
008,
57

Dar
ikeempatmet
odedi
atas,
nil
aiy
angpal
i
ngkeci
ladal
aheksponensi
al.
Makay
angl
ebi
hbai
kadal
ahmet
odeeksponensi
aldi
bandi
ngkanmet
ode
l
ainny
a.

c)PDBI
ndonesi
atahun2015&2020

Per
samaaneksponensi
al=Y'=2075,
13( 06)
1+0, X

Unt
ukper
amal
ant
ahun2015(
X=7)dan2020(
X=12)adal
ah:

13(
Y2008=2075, 06)
1+0, X
13(
=2075, 06)
1+0, 7
=3112,
70

13(
Y2020=2075, 06)
1+0, X
13(
=2075, 06)
1+0, 12
=4171,
0

2.Ber
ikutadal
ahj
uml
ahpenj
ual
anmobi
lsedandiI
ndonesi
apadat
ahun2005–
2012persemest
eran.

Tahun Semest
er

I I
I

2005 19.
988 15.
381

2006 8.
788 8.
777

2007 12.
393 14.
988

2008 18.
176 16.
124

2009 7.
302 13.
798

2010 16.
487 16.
641

2011 13.
599 12.
142

2012 15.
129 19.
092

a)Hi
tungl
ahni
l
ait
r odel
endenganmenggunakanmet astsquar
e

b)Hi
tungl
ahni
l
aiv
ari
asimusi
m denganmet
oder
ata-
rat
aber
ger
akunt
uk
 duasemest
eran

c)Hi
tungl
ahni
l
aii
ndekssi
kl
usdenganmet
oder
ata-
rat
aber
ger
akunt
ukdua
semest
eran

d)Hi
tungl
ahi
ndeksunt
ukger
akt
akber
atur
an

e)Ber
apapenambahankendar
aanpadat
ahun2015semest
ergenap

Jawab

a)Ni
l
ait
r odel
endenganmenggunakanmet astsquar
e

Tahun Semest
er KodeX
Y1.
X Y2.
X X2
I(
Y1) I
I(Y1) (
Tahun)
2005 19.
988 15.
381 -
3,5 -
69958 -
53833,
5 12,
25
2006 8.
788 8.
777 -
2,5 -
21970 -
21942,
5 6,
25
2007 12.
393 14.
988 -
1,5 -
18589,
5 -
22482 2,
25
2008 18.
176 16.
124 -
0,5 -
9088 -
8062 0,
25
2009 7.
302 13.
798 0,
5 3651 6899 0,
25
2010 16.
487 16.
641 1,
5 24730,
5 24961,
5 2,
25
2011 13.
599 12.
142 2,
5 33997,
5 30355 6,
25
2012 15.
129 19.
092 3,
5 52951,
5 66822 12,
25
∑Y1=11 ∑Y2=11 ∑Y1.
X=-
4.2 ∑Y2.
X=22.
7 ∑X2=42
1.
862 6.
943 75 18 ,
00

Semest
erI

∑Y 111.
862
Ni
l
aia= 1 = =13.
982,
75
n 8

∑Y.X -4.275
aib= 12 =
Ni
l =-
101,
79
∑X 42,00

Semest
erI
I

∑Y 116.
943
Ni
l
aia= 2 = =14.
617,
87
n 8
 ∑Y.X 22.718
Ni
l
aib= 22 = =540,
90
∑X 42,
00

Jadi
per
samaant
ren

Semest
erI=Y’
=13.
982,
75+101,
79X

Semest
erI
I=Y’
=14.
617,
87+540,
90X

b)#membuatr
ata-
rat
aber
ger
akdanr
asi
odat
aasl
idenganr
ata-
rat
aber
ger
ak

Tahun Semest
er DataAsli TotalBergerak2Semester Rat
a-r
ata IndeksMusim
2005 I 19.988 19.988+15.381=35.369 17.684,5 113,03
I
I 15.381 15.381+8.788=24.169 12.084,5 127,28
2006 I 8.
788 8.788+8.777=17.565 8.
782,
5 100,06
I
I 8.
777 8.777+12.393=21.170 10.585 82,
92
2007 I 12.393 12.393+14.988=27.381 13.690,5 90,
52
I
I 14.988 14.988+18.176=33.164 16.582 90,
39
2008 I 18.176 18.176+16.124=34.300 17.150 105,98
I
I 16.124 16.124+7.302=23.426 11.713 137,66
2009 I 7.
302 7.302+13.798=21.100 10.550 69,21
I
I 13.798 13.798+16.487=30.285 15.142,5 91,12
2010 I 16.487 16.487+16.641=33.128 16.564 99,
54
I
I 16.641 16.641+13.599=30.240 15.120 110,06
 2011 I 13.599 13.599+12.142=25.741 12.870,5 105,66
I
I 12.142 12.142+15.129=27.271 13.635,5 89,
05
2012 I 15.129 15.129+19.092=34.221 17.110,5 88,
42
I
I 19.092
#mengel
ompokkani
ndeksmusi
m

Tahun Semest
er
I I
I
2005 113,03 127,28
2006 100,06 82,
92
2007 90,
52 90,
39
2008 105,98 137,66
2009 69,21 91,12
2010 99,
54 110,06
2011 105,66 89,
05
2012 88,
42
Rat
a-r
ata 96,
55 104,07

#menentukanfaktor
× ×
koreksifaktorkoreksi= = = =1
,
 #i
ndeksmusi
mkuartalsel
anj
utnyadi
kal
i
kandenganfaktorkoreksii
ndeks
semesterI=96,
55x=96,
55
indekssemesterI
I=104,07x1=104,07

c)I
ndeksSi
klus

Tahun Semest
er Y T S TCI=Y/S CI=TCI
/T C
2005 I 19.988 14.384,02 113,03 17.684,5 122,95
I
I 15.381 14.499,98 127,28 12.084,5 83,
34 164,62
2006 I 8.
788 14.615,94 100,06 8.
782,
5 60,
09 113,39
I
I 8.
777 14.731,89 82,
92 10.585 71,85 96,01
2007 I 12.393 14.847,85 90,
52 13.690,50 92,21 117,95
I
I 14.988 14.963,81 90,
39 16.582 110,81 147,61
2008 I 18.176 15.079,76 105,98 17.150 113,73 167,68
I
I 16.124 15.195,72 137,66 11.713 77,
08 152,27
2009 I 7.
302 15.311,68 69,21 10.550 68,
90 111,53
I
I 13.798 15.427,64 91,12 15.142,50 98,15 117,98
2010 I 16.487 15,543,59 99,
54 16.564 106,56 151,43
I
I 16.641 15.659,55 110,06 15.120 96,
55 154,84
2011 I 13.599 15.775,51 105,66 12.870,50 81,59 137,35
I
I 12.142 15.891,46 89,
05 13.635,50 85,
80 124,49
2012 I 15.129 16.007,42 88,
42 17.110,50 106,89 139,25
I
I 19.092 16.123,38

d)I
ndeksgeraktakberaturan

Tahun Smt
r Y T S TCI=Y/S CI=TCI
/T C I
=(CI
/C)x100
2005 I 19.988 14.384,02 113,03 17.684,5 122,95
I
I 15.381 14.499,98 127,28 12.084,5 83,
34 164,62 50,
63
 2006 I 8.
788 14.615,94 100,06 8.
782,
5 60,
09 113,39 52,
99
I
I 8.
777 14.731,89 82,
92 10.585 71,85 96,01 74,
83
2007 I 12.393 14.847,85 90,
52 13.690,50 92,21 117,95 78,17
I
I 14.988 14.963,81 90,
39 16.582 110,81 147,61 75,
07
2008 I 18.176 15.079,76 105,98 17.150 113,73 167,68 67,
83
I
I 16.124 15.195,72 137,66 11.713 77,
08 152,27 50,
62
2009 I 7.
302 15.311,68 69,21 10.550 68,
90 111,53 61,78
I
I 13.798 15.427,64 91,12 15.142,50 98,15 117,98 83,
20
2010 I 16.487 15,543,59 99,
54 16.564 106,56 151,43 70,
73
I
I 16.641 15.659,55 110,06 15.120 96,
55 154,84 62,
36
2011 I 13.599 15.775,51 105,66 12.870,50 81,59 137,35 59,
40
I
I 12.142 15.891,46 89,
05 13.635,50 85,
80 124,49 68,
93
2012 I 15.129 16.007,42 88,
42 17.110,50 106,89 139,25 76,
76
I
I 19.092 16.123,38
e)Penambahankendar
aantahun2015semestergenap
Tahun I
I X Y.
X X2

2005 15.381 -
3,5 -
53.
834 12,
25
2006 8.
777 -
2,5 -
21.943 6,
25
2007 14.988 -
1,5 -
22.
482 2,
25
2008 16.124 -
0,5 -
8.062 0,
25
2009 13.798 0,
5 6.
899 0,
25
2010 16.641 1,5 24.
962 2,
25
2011 12.142 2,
5 30.
355 6,
25
2012 19.092 3,
5 66.
822 12,
25
ʜY=116.943 ʜY.X22.718 ʜX2=42,
00

Nilaia=ΣY/n=116.943/8=14,617,87
Nilaib=ΣYX/ΣX2 =22.718/42=540,90
Jadi,per
samaantr
en=Y’=14.617,87+540,90X

Penambahankendar
aanpadatahun2015yaitu;nilaiXuntuk2015adalah6,5.Olehkar
enaitu,nilai
per
amal
annyaadal
ah:
Y2015 =14.617,87+540,90X

=14.617,87+(540,90x6,5)

=18.134
Jadi,penambahankendar
aapadatahun2015unutksemestergenapyaitusebesar18.134