DAFTAR ISI

Halaman

HALAMAN JUDUL.................................................................................... i

KATA PENGANTAR................................................................................. ii

DAFTAR ISI................................................................................................ iv

DAFTAR GAMBAR................................................................................... vi

DAFTAR TABEL........................................................................................ vii

BAB 1 PENDAHULUAN.......................................................................... 1

1.1 Latar Belakang Masalah............................................................... 1

1.2 Identifikasi Masalah..................................................................... 4

1.3 Pembatasan Masalah..................................................................... 4

1.4 Perumusan Masalah...................................................................... 4

1.5 Tujuan Penelitian.......................................................................... 5

1.6 Manfaat Penelitian........................................................................ 5

1.7 Sistematika Penulisan................................................................... 6

BAB 2 TINJAUAN PUSTAKA................................................................. 8

2.1 Konsep Dasar Peramalan.............................................................. 8

2.1.1 Peramalan........................................................................... 8

2.1.2 Metode Single Moving Average......................................... 12

2.1.3 Menghitung Akurasi Peramalan ........................................ 13

2.1.4 Bahan Baku ....................................................................... 15

2.1.5 Roti .................................................................................... 16

iv
 2.1.6 Pemodelan Menggunakan Unified Modelling Language

(UML)................................................................................. 16

2.1.7 Perangkat Lunak yang Digunakan..................................... 20

2.2 Tinjauan Penelitian....................................................................... 24

2.3 Kerangka Pemikiran..................................................................... 25

2.4 Tinjauan Umum Perusahaan......................................................... 26

2.4.1 Pabrik Roti Gedangan........................................................... 26

2.4.2 Struktur Organisasi Pabrik Roti Gedangan.......................... 27

2.5 Hipotesis......................................................................................... 29

BAB 3 METODOLOGI PENELITIAN................................................... 30

3.1 Kerangka Kerja Penelitian............................................................ 30

3.2 Metode Penelitian......................................................................... 33

3.3 Teknik Pengumpulan Data........................................................... 34

3.4 Waktu dan Tempat Penelitian ...................................................... 35

DAFTAR PUSTAKA................................................................................. 36