TIME SERIES MOMENT

TH (n) SALES (y) x x.y x2

1 1,200 0 - 0
2 1,400 1 1,400 1
3 1,600 2 3,200 4
4 1,800 3 5,400 9
5 2,000 4 8,000 16
Jumlah 8,000 10 18,000 30
2015 ??? 5*
TIME SERIES MOMENT
TIME SERIES MOMENT Y??? Y=a+bX
Y = a+bx
Ey =a +b Ex Ey =a +b Ex
Ex.y =a.Ex + bEx2 8000 =a + b .10 ...... P1
Ex.y =a.Ex + bEx2
18.000 =a.10 +b.30.....p2

langkah 1 ==> Eliminasi (nilai a /nilai b)

mengeliminasi nilai b maka p1 x 3, P2 x1

24.000 =3a + 30b.....p1

18.000 =10a +30b.....p2
.--------------------------------(-)
6.000 =-7a
a =6.000/7
857.14

langkah 2 ++> cari nilai b dg Substitusi

8000 =a + 10b.....p1
8000 =857,14 + 10b.....p1
7.142,86=10b
b= 7142,86/10
b= 714,3

Laast square langkah ke 3 ++> masukan ke persamaaan Y = a + bX

a = Ey/n Y (2015) =857,14 + 714,3 . (5)
b =Exy/Ex2 Y (2015) =857,14 + 2142,86
y = 2.999,99 dibulatkan menjadi 3000

Metode Least Square data ganjil

TH (n) SALES (y) x x.y x2
1 1,200 -2 (2,400) 4 Laast square
2 1,400 -1 (1,400) 1 Y??? Y=a+bX
 3 1,600 0 - 0
4 1,800 1 1,800 1 a = Ey/n
5 2,000 2 4,000 4 a =8000/5
Jumlah 8,000 0 2,000 10 a= 1600
2015 ??? 3* b =Exy/Ex2
b=2000/10
b= 200
Data Genap bilangan Ganjil untuk nilai x
TH (n) SALES (y) x x.y x2 y = 1.600 + 200 (3)
1 1,200 -5 (6,000) 25 y=1.600 + 600
2 1,400 -3 (4,200) 9 y= 2.200
3 1,600 -1 (1,600) 1
4 1,800 1 1,800 1
5 2,000 3 6,000 9 Laast square
6 2,300 5 11,500 25 Y???
Jumlah 9,100 5 13,500 45
7 ???? 7* a = Ey/n
a =9.100/6
a= 1516.67
b =Exy/Ex2
b=13.500/45
b= 300

y = 1.516,67 + 300 (7)

y=1516,67 + 2.100
Y = 3616.67
 TIME SERIES MOMENT
TH (n) SALES (y) x x.y x2
1 1,200 0 - 0
2 1,400 1 1,400 1
3 1,600 2 3,200 4
4 1,800 3 5,400 9
5 2,000 4 8,000 16
6 2,300 5 11,500 25
Jumlah 9,100 15 29,500 55
7 ???? 6*

p1 x 3, P2 x1

7142.86
714.286
2142.858
2999.998

ke persamaaan Y = a + bX