Perkiraan Beban

Buat Estimasi Energi Terjual untuk 10 tahun ke depan
1. RT
2. Industri
3. Bisnis
4. Sosial
5. Tipe beban lain
6. Total beban GWh
Pertanyaan tambahan:
Apakah regresi/forecast Anda baik? Apa parameternya?
z x1 x2 x3
Energi Terjual RT Jumlah Penduduk Aceh GDP Harga Konstan Aceh Jumlah Pelanggan
Tahun
(GWh) (Ribu Jiwa) (Ribu Rupiah) RT
2010
2011 4,619.0
2012 871.00 4,715.1 23,099.13 978,506.00
2013 984.00 4,811.1 23,228.59 1,016,898
2014 1015.00 4,906.8 23,129.04 1,067,703
2015 1214.00 5,002.0 22,524.31 1,117,644
2016 1301.00 5,096.2 22,835.29 1,157,061
2017 1396.00 5,189.5 23,362.90 1,200,091
2018 1497.00 5,281.3 24,013.79 1,250,058
2019 1513.00 5,371.5 24,842.30 1,303,772
2020 1547.00 5,274.9 25,018.28 1,354,112
2021 5,333.7 25,357.70 1,396,567
2022 5,407.9 26,063.50
2023
Rumah Tangga
2000.00
1800.00
1600.00
1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Column C Column G
23222348
23222349
23222343
23222355
23222347
z prediksi SUMMARY OUTPUT

Estimasi Energi Terjual
(GWh) Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
1,105.56 Adjusted R Square
1,184.97 Standard Error
1,286.23 Observations
1,394.01
1,471.63 ANOVA
1,550.89
1,638.10 Regression
1,727.61 Residual
1,774.19 Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
Ryan Adytia Putra
Johan Iswara Alison
Kelompok 2
Fajar Khairuddin Kurniawan ACEH
Smartgrid
Mashudan Kurniawan
Herdian Januar Wibowo
Regression Statistics
0.992823167686621
0.985697842295297
0.97497122401677
34.8424866920776
8
df SS MS F Significance F
3 334672.87948 111557.62649 91.89269318 0.0003817011
4 4855.9955156 1213.9988789
7 339528.875
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

-1191.85826124977 4270.2487338 -0.279107456 0.79399866 -13047.96946 10664.25293
0.258118892902857 1.4686300056 0.1757548817 0.869025303 -3.819451697 4.335689483
-0.0157525011770266 0.0277118343 -0.568439498 0.600129422 -0.092692888 0.061187886
0.00147595123678003 0.003039623 0.4855704967 0.652669364 -0.006963395 0.009915298
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
-13047.96946 10664.25293
-3.819451697 4.335689483
-0.092692888 0.061187886
-0.006963395 0.009915298
1. RT
2. Industri
3. Bisnis
4. Sosial
5. Tipe beban lain
6. Total beban GWh
z x1 x2 x3
Energi Terjual I Jumlah Penduduk Aceh GDP Harga Konstan Aceh Jumlah Pelanggan
Tahun
(GWh) (Ribu Jiwa) (Ribu Rupiah) I
2010
2011 4,619.0
2012 47.00 4,715.1 23,099.13 924.00
2013 49.00 4,811.1 23,228.59 988.00
2014 53.00 4,906.8 23,129.04 1,441.00
2015 65.00 5,002.0 22,524.31 1,884.00
2016 97.00 5,096.2 22,835.29 2,213.00
2017 108.00 5,189.5 23,362.90 2,669.00
2018 123.00 5,281.3 24,013.79 3,012.00
2019 142.00 5,371.5 24,842.30 3,236.00
2020 151.00 5,274.9 25,018.28 3,582.00
2021 5,333.7 25,357.70 3,903.00
2022 5,407.9 26,063.50
2023
Industri
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Column C Column G
23222348 Ryan Adytia Putra
23222349 Johan Iswara Alison
23222343 Fajar Khairuddin Kurniawan
23222355 Mashudan Kurniawan
23222347 Herdian Januar Wibowo

Multiple R 0.997927733562633
R Square 0.995859761413454
61.8230702000126 Adjusted R Squ 0.993375618261526
66.9243015874297 Standard Error 3.28699963727569
82.1954248801558 Observations 9
93.2678847663688
107.85505606529 ANOVA
127.978149172741 df
145.55009967884 Regression 3
160.79823503998 Residual 5
170.607778609183 Total 8
Coefficients
Intercept -249.138848949656
X Variable 1 0.0223228930582019
X Variable 2 0.00767806089492336
X Variable 3 0.0306824034069751
2020 2021
Kelompok 2
ACEH
Smartgrid
SS MS F Significance F
12993.978167 4331.326056 400.88662388 2.243625E-06
54.021833077 10.80436662
13048
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
126.50837543 -1.969346678 0.1060125676 -574.3389809 76.06128 -574.339 76.06128
0.0229190468 0.973988719 0.3747948202 -0.036592392 0.081238 -0.036592 0.081238
0.0021616732 3.551906491 0.0163543804 0.002121303 0.013235 0.002121 0.013235
0.005921863 5.18120795 0.0035217637 0.01545977 0.045905 0.01546 0.045905
1. RT
2. Industri
3. Bisnis
4. Sosial
5. Tipe beban lain
6. Total beban GWh
z x1 x2 x3
Energi Terjual BJumlah Penduduk Aceh GDP Harga Konstan Aceh Jumlah Pelanggan
Tahun
(GWh) (Ribu Jiwa) (Ribu Rupiah) B
2010
2011 4,619.0
2012 201 4,715.1 23,099.13 66,287.00
2013 223 4,811.1 23,228.59 70,933.00
2014 254.0 4,906.8 23,129.04 76,605
2015 256.0 5,002.0 22,524.31 81,964
2016 298.0 5,096.2 22,835.29 89,364
2017 312.0 5,189.5 23,362.90 104,186
2018 381.0 5,281.3 24,013.79 117,040
2019 398.0 5,371.5 24,842.30 126,489
2020 421.0 5,274.9 25,018.28 135,764
2021 5,333.7 25,357.70 145,665
2022 5,407.9 26,063.50
2023 4,467.7
Bisnis
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Column C Column G

Multiple R 0.983930174732357
R Square 0.968118588748847
246.916484947059 Adjusted R Squ 0.948989741998155
265.046166167811 Standard Error 19.4627680975365
292.255279394923 Observations 9
330.148447233127
353.939336600022 ANOVA
399.539298415488 df
435.044402861298 Regression 3
453.953343273441 Residual 5
479.157241106832 Total 8
Coefficients
Intercept 336.690462441268
X Variable 1 0.0448152897878412
X Variable 2 -0.0234495039618225
X Variable 3 0.00362937275113482
2019 2020 2021

Kelompok 2
ACEH
Smartgrid
57513.558845 19171.18628 50.610400165 0.000365485
1893.9967101 378.799342
59407.555556
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
969.15165966 0.347407404 0.7424310391 -2154.59319 2827.974 -2154.593 2827.974
0.1326123018 0.337942176 0.7491337225 -0.296075484 0.385706 -0.296075 0.385706
0.0232110937 -1.010271392 0.3587277828 -0.08311552 0.036217 -0.083116 0.036217
0.0017223433 2.107229557 0.0889338117 -0.000798052 0.008057 -0.000798 0.008057
1. RT
2. Industri
3. Bisnis
4. Sosial
5. Tipe beban lain
6. Total beban GWh
z x1 x2 x4
Energi Terjual S Jumlah Penduduk Aceh GDP Harga Konstan Aceh Jumlah Pelanggan
Tahun
(GWh) (Ribu Jiwa) (Ribu Rupiah) S
2010
2011 4,619.0
2012 87 4,715.1 23,099.13 30023.00
2013 98 4,811.1 23,228.59 31582.00
2014 108.0 4,906.8 23,129.04 33473.00
2015 123.0 5,002.0 22,524.31 35575.00
2016 137.0 5,096.2 22,835.29 37917.00
2017 141.0 5,189.5 23,362.90 41172.00
2018 152.0 5,281.3 24,013.79 43571.00
2019 163.0 5,371.5 24,842.30 13510.00
2020 176.0 5,274.9 25,018.28 48577.00
2021 186.0 5,333.7 25,357.70 51171.00
2022 5,407.9 26,063.50
2023 4,467.7
Sosial
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Column C Column G

Multiple R 0.987966586374669
R Square 0.976077975792817
144.088443349173 Adjusted R Squ 0.964116963689225
153.104419476373 Standard Error 5.43012771836665
159.409431969205 Observations 10
159.509466912835
171.00445414599 ANOVA
185.517375045946 df
201.078050533566 Regression 3
204.17123075892 Residual 6
215.316954496264 Total 9
224.800173311729
Coefficients
Intercept -485.182969191918
X Variable 1 0.069909562430016
X Variable 2 0.012389161356941
X Variable 3 0.000448370471833824
Kelompok 2
ACEH
Smartgrid
7218.6822778 2406.227426 81.604965143 2.967627E-05
176.91772223 29.48628704
7395.6
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
44.907453004 -10.8040634 3.720509E-05 -595.0675482 -375.2984 -595.0675 -375.2984
0.0118952471 5.877100473 0.001074874 0.040802941 0.099016 0.040803 0.099016
0.0027247479 4.546901872 0.0039046136 0.005721943 0.019056 0.005722 0.019056
0.0001743815 2.571204395 0.0422664628 2.167432E-05 0.000875 2.167E-05 0.000875
1. RT
2. Industri
3. Bisnis
4. Sosial
5. Tipe beban lain
6. Total beban GWh
z x1 x2 x3
Energi Terjual PJumlah Penduduk AcehGDP Harga Konstan AcehJumlah Pelanggan
Tahun
(GWh) (Ribu Jiwa) (Ribu Rupiah) P (RIBU)
2010
2011 4,619.0
2012 251 4,715.1 23,099.13 6,468.00
2013 263 4,811.1 23,228.59 7,068.00
2014 274.0 4,906.8 23,129.04 7,677
2015 285.0 5,002.0 22,524.31 8,577
2016 289.0 5,096.2 22,835.29 9,743
2017 301.0 5,189.5 23,362.90 10,815
2018 320.0 5,281.3 24,013.79 12,496
2019 361.0 5,371.5 24,842.30 13,510
2020 365.0 5,274.9 25,018.28 14,645
2021 5,333.7 25,357.70 15,140
2022 5,407.9 26,063.50
2023 4,467.7
Pemerintah
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Column C Column G
23222348
23222349
23222343
23222355
23222347

Multiple R
R Square
307.456843001439 Adjusted R Square
322.400488363005 Standard Error
330.686489163546 Observations
323.617269383488
342.124609463468 ANOVA
366.962604639127
393.626819141597 Regression
426.875067530476 Residual
416.249809313856 Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
2020 2021
Ryan Adytia Putra
Johan Iswara Alison
Kelompok 2
Fajar Khairuddin Kurniawan ACEH
Smartgrid
Mashudan Kurniawan
Herdian Januar Wibowo
Regression Statistics
0.96873507814965
0.938447651637608
0.901516242620173
14.2507701671493
9
df SS MS F Significance F
3 15481.466637 5160.488879 25.410556396 0.001872269
5 1015.4222518 203.0844504
8 16496.888889
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
-966.416240184398 640.5394568 -1.508753645 0.1917355292 -2612.975333 680.1429 -2612.975
0.132622477819743 0.0939641116 1.41141629 0.2172124953 -0.108919961 0.374165 -0.10892
0.0287849378144311 0.0142345782 2.022184103 0.0990938481 -0.00780621 0.065376 -0.007806
-0.00252987686755064 0.009798127 -0.258200048 0.8065436448 -0.027716764 0.022657 -0.027717
Upper 95.0%
680.1429
0.374165
0.065376
0.022657
1. RT
2. Industri
3. Bisnis
4. Sosial
5. Tipe beban lain
6. Total beban GWh
PREDIKSI BEBAN PER GOL TARIF (GWh)

Tahun Ke RT I B S
1 1,105.56 61.82 246.92 144.09
2 1,184.97 66.92 265.05 153.10
3 1,286.23 82.20 292.26 159.41
4 1,394.01 93.27 330.15 159.51
5 1,471.63 107.86 353.94 171.00
6 1,550.89 127.98 399.54 185.52
7 1,638.10 145.55 435.04 201.08
8 1,727.61 160.80 453.95 204.17
9 - - - -
10 - - - -
Note : Prediksi beban tahun ke-10 menggunakan rata-rata kenaikan beban per tahun
per golongan tarif
(GWh)
P Total Growth RT I B S P Total
307.46 1,865.84 1 7% 8% 7% 6% 5% 7%
322.40 1,992.44 2 9% 23% 10% 4% 3% 8%
330.69 2,150.77 3 8% 13% 13% 0% -2% 7%
323.62 2,300.56 4 6% 16% 7% 7% 6% 6%
342.12 2,446.56 5 5% 19% 13% 8% 7% 8%
366.96 2,630.89 6 6% 14% 9% 8% 7% 7%
393.63 2,813.40 7 5% 10% 4% 2% 8% 6%
426.88 2,973.41
- -
- -
kenaikan beban per tahun

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Buat Estimasi Energi Terjual untuk 10 tahun ke depan

z prediksi SUMMARY OUTPUT

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

z prediksi SUMMARY OUTPUT

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

z prediksi SUMMARY OUTPUT

2019 2020 2021

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

z prediksi SUMMARY OUTPUT

z prediksi SUMMARY OUTPUT

PREDIKSI BEBAN PER GOL TARIF (GWh)

kenaikan beban per tahun

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