No.

Tahun Penduduk Kelahiran Kematian Migrasi Migrasi

(Y) (X1) (X2) Masuk Kelurah
(X3) (X4)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
1 2011 1000 45 10 22 5
2 2012 1250 15 10 20 6
3 2013 1400 4 5 4 6
4 2014 1550 20 11 15 5
5 2015 1725 22 11 45 6
Jumlah 106 47 106 28
Regresi Linier Berganda

y = 6925 x12 = 3150 x1 y =138300 x1 x3 = 2596

x1 = 106 x22 = 467 x2 y =65525 x1 x4 = 571
x2 = 47 x32 = 3150 x3 y =153475 x2 x3 = 1100
x3 = 106 x42 = 158 x4 y =39000 x2 x4 = 251
x4 = 28 y2 =
9900625 x1 x2 = 1082 x3 x4 = 599

Persamaan Eleminasi ;
y = a.n + b1. x1 + b2. x2 + b3. x3 +b.4. x4 ....(A)
x1 y = a. x1 + b1. x12 + b2. x1 x2 + b3. x1 x3 +b.4. x1 x4 ....(B)
x2 y = a. x2 + b1. x1 x2 + b2. x22+ b3. x2 x3 +b.4. x2 x4 ....(C)
x3 y = a. x3 + b1. x1 x3 + b2. x2 x3 + b3. x32+b.4. x3 x4 ....(D)
x4 y = a. x4 + b1. x1 x4 + b2. x2 x4 + b3. x3 x4 +b.4. x42 ....(E)

Eleminasi Pers (A) & (B)

6925 = a.5 + b1. 106 + b2. 47 + b3. 106 + b.4. 28 x106
138300 = a.106 + b1. 3150 + b2. 1082 + b3. 2596 + b.4. 571 x5

734050 = a.530 + b1. 11236 + b2. 4982 + b3. 11236 + b.4. 2968
691500 = a.530 + b1. 15750 + b2. 5410 + b3. 12980 + b.4. 2855 -
42550 = b1. 4514 + b2. 428 + b3. 1744 + b.4. 113....(F)

Eleminasi Pers (B) & (C)

138300 = a.106 + b1. 3150 + b2. 1082 + b3. 2596 + b.4. 571 x47
65525 = a.47 + b1. 1082 + b2. 467 + b3. 1100 + b.4. 251 x106
6500100 = a.4982 + b1. 148050 + b2. 50854 + b3. 122012 + b.4. 26837
6945650 = a.4982 + b1. 114692 + b2. 49502 + b3. 116600 + b.4. 26606 -
445550 = b1. 33358 + b2. 1352 + b3. 5412 + b.4. 231....(G)

Eleminasi Pers (C) & (D)

65525 = a.47 + b1. 1082 + b2. 467 + b3. 1100 + b.4. 251 x106
153475 = a.106 + b1. 2596 + b2. 1100 + b3. 3150 + b.4. 599 x47

6945650 = a.4982 + b1. 114692 + b2. 49502 + b3. 116600 + b.4. 26606
7213325 = a.4982 + b1. 122012 + b2. 51700 + b3. 148050 + b.4. 28153 -
267675 = b1. 7320 + b2. 2198 + b3. 31450 + b.4. 1547....(H)

Eleminasi Pers (D) & (E)

153475 = a.106 + b1. 2596 + b2. 1100 + b3. 3150 + b.4. 599 x28
39000 = a.28 + b1. 571 + b2. 251 + b3. 599 + b.4. 158 x106

4297300 = a.2968 + b1. 72688 + b2. 30800 + b3. 88200 + b.4. 16772
4134000 = a.2968 + b1. 60526 + b2.26606 + b3. 63494 + b.4. 16748 -
163300 = b1. 12162 + b2. 4194 + b3. 24706 + b.4. 24....(I)

Eleminasi Pers (F) & (G)

42550 = b1. 4514 + b2. 428 + b3. 1744 + b.4. 113 x33358
445550 = b1. 33358 + b2. 1352 + b3. 5412 + b.4. 231 x4514

1419382900 = b1. 150578012 + b2. 14277224 + b3. 58176352 + b.4. 3769454

2011212700 = b1. 150578012 + b2.6102928 + b3. 24429768 + b.4. 1042734 -
591829800 = b2. 8174296 + b3. 33746584 + b.4. 2726720....(J)

Eleminasi Pers (G) & (H)

445550 = b1. 33358 + b2. 1352 + b3. 5412 + b.4. 231 x7320
267675 = b1. 7320 + b2. 2198 + b3. 31450 + b.4. 1547 x33358

3261426000 = b1. 244180560 + b2. 9896640 + b3. 39615840 + b.4. 1690920

8929102650 = b1. 244180560 + b2.73320884 + b3.1049109100 + b.4. 51604826 -
5667676650 = b2. 63424244 + b3. 1009493260 + b.4. 49913906....(K)

Eleminasi Pers (H) & (I)

267675 = b1. 7320 + b2. 2198 + b3. 31450 + b.4. 1547 x12162
163300 = b1. 12162 + b2. 4194 + b3. 24706 + b.4. 24 x7320

3255463350 = b1. 89025840 + b2. 26732076 + b3. 382494900 + b.4. 18814614

1195356000 = b1. 89025840 + b2.30700080 + b3. 196366320 + b.4. 175680 -
2060107350 = b2. 3968004 + b3. 186128580 + b.4. 18638934....(L)

Eleminasi Pers (J) & (K)

591829800 = b2. 8174296 + b3. 33746584 + b.4. 2726720 x63424244
5667676650 = b2. 63424244 + b3. 1009493260 + b.4. 49193906 x8174296

37536357641671200 = b2. 518448544032224 + b3. 2140351577782500 + b.4. 172940154599680

46329266569388400 = b2. 518448544032224 + b3. 8251896717244960 + b.4. 408011042160176 -

8792908927717200 = b3. 6111545139462460 + b.4. 235070887560496....(M)

Eleminasi Pers (K) & (L)

5667676650 = b2. 63424244 + b3. 1009493260 + b.4. 18557386 x63424244
2060107350 = b2. 3968004 + b3. 186128580 + b.4. 18638934 x3968004

359468106762703000 = b2. 251667653888976 + b3. 64026346838595400

+ b.4. 1176988177666180
8174514205229400 = b2. 251667653888976 + b3. 738558949954320
+ b.4. 73959364667736 -

351293592557473000 = b3. 63287787888641100 + b.4. 1103028812998440 ....(N)

Eleminasi Pers (M) & (N)

8792908927717200 = b3. 6111545139462460 + b.4. 21246588449424 x63287787888641100
351293592557473000 = b3. 63287787888641100 + b.4. 1103028812998440 x6111545139462460

556483755141505000000000000000000 = b3. 386786172458156000000000000000000

+ b.4. 1344649583144400000000000000000
2146946648118930000000000000000000 = b3. 386786172458156000000000000000000
+ b.4. 6741210380767690000000000000000 -
1590462892977430000000000000000000 = b.4. 5396560797623290000000000000000
b4 = 0,003
Subtitusi nilai b4 ke pers (M)
8792908927717200 = b3. 6111545139462460 + (0,003) 21246588449424
8792908927717200 = b3. 6111545139462460 + 63739765348
b3. 6111545139462460 = 63739765348 8792908927717200
 = 8792845187951850
b3 = 8792845187951850
6111545139462460
b3 = 1,439

Subtitusi nilai b4 dan b3 ke pers (J)

591829800 = b2. 8174296 + (1,439) 33746584 + (0,003) 2726720
591829800 = b2. 8174296 + 23451413,48 + 8180,16
591829800 = b2. 8174296 + 23459593,64
b2. 8174296 = 23459593,64 591829800
= 568370206,4
b2 = 568370206,4
8174296
= 69,531

Subtitusi nilai b4, b3 dan b2 ke pers (F)

42550 =b1. 4514 + (69,531) 428 + (1,439) 1744 + (0,003) 113
42550 =b1. 4514 + 29759,268 + 2509,616 + 0,339

42550 =b1. 4514 + 32269,223

b1. 4514 = 32269,223 42550
= 10280,777
b1 = 10280,777
4514
= 2,278

Subtitusi nilai b4, b3, b2, dan b1 ke pers (A)

6925 = a.5 + (2,278) 106 + (69,531) 47 + (1,439) 106 + (0,003) 28
6925 = a.5 + 241,468 + 3267,957+ 152,534 + 0,084
6925 = a.5 + 3662,043
a.5 = 6925 - 3662,043
a = 3262,957
5
= 652,591
a = 652,591 b2 =69,531 b4 = 0,003

b1 = 2,278 b3 = 1,439

Diketahui nilai x1, x2, x3, x 4, y

x 1= x 1 x 2= x 2 y= y
N N N Persamaan Regresi
x 4= x 4 x 3= x 3
N N

x 1=106 x 3=106 y =6925

5 5 5

x 2=47 x 4=28
5 5

x 1= 21, 2 x 3=21 , 2 y=1385

x 2=9,4 x 4=5,6

y=a+b1. x1+b2. x2+b3. x3+b 4.x 4

y=(652,591)+(2,278).21,2+(69,531).9,4+(1,439).21,2+(0,003).5,6
y=(652,591)+732,409
y=1385

Persamaan Regresi
Y = 1063,99+ 7,556 . x1 + 13,861 . x2 + 1,439 . x3 + 0,004 . x4

Proyeksi Variabel X1, X2, X3, X4

50
45
40
35
30 X1
25 X2
20 X3
X4
15
10
5
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Proyeksi Nilai X1
Pada proyeksi ini menggunakan metode regresi tak linier untuk itu X1 diganti menjadi
Y untuk mencari pertambahan jumlah angka kelahiran di tahun 2025

No. Tahun Kelahiran Y2 X2 X3 X4 XY X2Y

(X) (Y1)
(1) (2) (3) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
1 2011 45 2025 1 1 1 45 45
2 2012 15 225 4 8 16 30 60
3 2013 4 16 9 27 81 12 36
4 2014 20 400 16 64 256 80 320
5 2015 22 484 25 125 625 110 550
15 106 3150 55 225 979 277 1011
Eleminasi Pers (A) dan (B)
106 = a.5 + b. 15 + c. 55 x3
277 = a.15 + b. 55 + c. 225 x1

318 = a.15 + b. 45 + c. 165

277 = a.15 + b. 55 + c. 225 -
41 = b. 10 + c. 60...(D)

Eleminasi Pers (B) dan (C)

277 = a.15 + b. 55 + c. 225 x11
1011 = a.55 + b. 225 + c. 979 x3

3047 = a.165 + b. 605 + c. 2475

3033 = a.165 + b. 675 + c. 2937 -
14 = b. 70 + c. 462...(E)

Eleminasi Pers (D) dan (E)

41 = b. 10 + c. 60 x7
14 = b. 70 + c. 462 x1

287 = b. 70 + c. 420
14 = b. 70 + c. 462 -
273 = c. 42
c = 275/42= 1,625

Subtitusi nilai c ke pers (D)

41 = b. 10 + (1,625). 60
41 = b. 10 + 97,5
b. 10 = 41 + 97,5
b = 13,85

Subtitusi nilai c dan b ke pers (A)

106 = a.5 + (13,85) . 15 + (1,625) . 55
106 = a.5 + 207,75 + 89,375
106 = a.5 + 297,125
a.5 = 297,125 + 106 = 1198,14
a = 80,625

Y2025= (80,625) + (13,85).(10+5) + (1,625).(10.5)2

Y2025= 80,625 + 207,75 + 365,625
Y2025 = 654
Jadi jumlah kelahiran pada tahun 2025 adalah X1 = 654 jiwa
Proyeksi Nilai X2
Pada proyeksi ini menggunakan metode regresi tak linier untuk itu X2 diganti menjadi
Y2 untuk mencari pertambahan jumlah angka kelahiran di tahun 2025

No. Tahun Kematian Y2 X2 X3 X4 XY X2Y

(X) (Y2)
(1) (2) (3) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
1 2011 10 100 1 1 1 10 10
2 2012 10 100 4 8 16 20 80
3 2013 5 25 9 27 81 15 125
4 2014 11 121 16 64 256 44 176
5 2015 11 121 25 125 625 55 176
15 47 467 55 225 979 144 546
Eleminasi Pers (A) dan (B)
47 = a.5 + b. 15 + c. 55 x3
144 = a.15 + b. 55 + c. 225 x1

141 = a.15 + b. 45 + c. 165

144 = a.15 + b. 55 + c. 225 -
3 = b. 10 + c. 60...(D)

Eleminasi Pers (B) dan (C)

144 = a.15 + b. 55 + c. 225 x11
546 = a.55 + b. 225 + c. 979 x3

1584 = a.165 + b. 605 + c. 2475

1638 = a.165 + b. 675 + c. 2937 -
54 = b. 70 + c. 462...(E)

Eleminasi Pers (D) dan (E)

3 = b. 10 + c. 60 x7
54 = b. 70 + c. 462 x1

21 = b. 70 + c. 420
54 = b. 70 + c. 462 -
33 = c. 42
c = 33/42 = 0,786

Subtitusi nilai c ke pers (D)

41 = b. 10 + (0,786). 60
41 = b. 10 + 47,16
b. 10 = 41 + 47,16
b = 8,816

Subtitusi nilai b dan c ke pers (A)

106 = a.5 + (8,816) . 15 + (0,786) . 55
106 = a.5 + 175,47
a.5 = 175,47 + 106 = 281,47
a = 56,294

Y2025= (56,294) + (8,816).(10+5) + (0,786).(10.5) 2

Y2025= 56,294 + 132,24 + 176,85
Y2025 = 365,384 = 365
Jadi jumlah kematian pada tahun 2025 adalah X2 = 365 jiwa