LENGKUNG DEBIT
Y^ =¿ a 1 X +b 1
X =¿ a 2 X + b2
^
Keterangan :
Y^ = persamaan garis lurus Y atas X
^
X = persamaan garis lurus X atas Y
a1, a2 = koefisien regresi merupakan koefisien arah dari garis regresi
b1, b2 = koefisien yang merupakan titik potong dari garis regresi
Dengan menggunakan metode kuadrat terkecil maka besarnya koefisien a 1, a2,
b1, b2 dapat dihitung dengan menggunakan persamaan sebagai berikut :
n
∑ ( Xi− X́ )( Yi−Ý )
i=1
a1 = n
∑ ( Xi− X́ )2
i=1
b2 = Ý – a1 ( X́ )
n
∑ ( Xi− X́ )( Yi−Ý )
i=1
a2 = n
∑ ( Yi−Y )2
i=1
b2 = X́ – a2 (Ý )
Keterangan :
n
1
X́ = ∑ Xi
n i=1
n
1
Ý = ∑ Yi
n i=1
Besarnya koefisien korelasi dapat dihitung berdasarkan persamaan :
n
∑ ( Xi− X́ ) ( Yi−Ý )
i=1
R= n n 0,5
[∑ {
i=1
( Xi− X́ )
2 2
} ∑ {( Yi−Ý ) }
i=1
]
Nilai residu adalah ukuran perbedaan antara nilai pengukuran dengan nilai
dari persamaan regresi. Deviasi standar dari nilai residu dapat dihitung dengan
rumus :
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( Xi− X́ )
i=1
σ x=
( n−1 )
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( Yi−Ý )
i=1
σ y=
( n−1 )
Perhitungan koefisien regresi a1 dan a2 selain dapat dihutung berdasarkan
rumus di atas, dapat juga ditentukan berdasarkan nilai koefisien korelasi (R)
sebagai berikut :
σx
a 1=R ( ) σy
σy
a 2=R ( ) σx
∑ ( Xi− X́ ) ( Yi−Ý )
i=1
R= n n 0,5
[∑ {
i=1
( Xi− X́ )
2
} ∑ {( Yi−Ý ) }
i=1
2
]
R = 70.02
¿¿¿
= 0,98
R2 = 0,95
[ ]
2
∑ ( Xi− X́ ) 3.40
0,5
= 0,48
σ x= i=1
( n−1 )
¿
[ ] ( 15 )
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( Yi−Ý ) 1512.40
0,5
= 10.04
σ y= i=1
( n−1 )
=
[
( 1615 ) ]
Perbandingannya adalah :
σY 10.04
= = 21.09
σX 0.48
σX 0,48
= = 0,05
σY 10,04
σx
a 2=R ( ) σy
= 0,98 (0,05) = 0,05
30.00
20.00
Lengkung Debit
15.00
Linear (Lengkung Debit)
10.00
5.00
0.00
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80
∑ ( Xi− X́ ) ( Yi−Ý )
i=1
R= n n 0,5
[∑ {
i=1
( Xi− X́ )
2
} ∑ {( Yi−Ý ) }
i=1
2
]
R = 69.94
¿¿¿
= 0.98
R2 = 0.95
[ ]
2
∑ ( Xi− X́ ) 3.40
0,5
= 0.48
σ x= i=1
( n−1 )
¿ [ ] 15
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( Yi−Ý ) 1508.05
0,5
= 10.03
σ y= i=1
( n−1 )
=
[
( 15 ) ]
Perbandingannya adalah :
σY 10.03
= = 21,06
σX 00.48
σX 0,48
= = 0,05
σY 9,9310.03
σx
a 2=R ( ) σy
= 0.98 (0,05) = 0.05
30.00
20.00
Lengkung Debit
15.00
Linear (Lengkung
Debit)
10.00
5.00
0.00
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80
∑ ( Xi− X́ ) ( Pi− Ṕ )
i=1
R= n n 0,5
[∑ {
i=1
( Xi− X́ )
2
} ∑ {( Pi−P ) }
i=1
2
]
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( Xi− X́ )
i=1
σ x=
( n−1 )
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( Pi−P )
i=1
σ p=
( n−1 )
Keterangan :
^
P = persamaan regresi linier P terhadap X
R = koefisien korelasi
σ x = deviasi standar residu X
σ p = deviasi standar residu P
Perhitungan Model Regresi Eksponensial (Debit 1)
∑ ( Xi− X́ ) ( Pi− Ṕ )
i=1
R= n n 0,5
[∑ {i=1
( Xi− X́ )
2
} ∑ {( Pi−P ) }
i=1
2
]
10,04
R= 0,5 = 0,97
[ ( 4,08 ) (26,13)]
R2 = 0,95
[ ]
2 0,5
∑ ( Xi− X́ ) 4,08
σ x= i=1
( n−1 )
= [ ] 16
= 0,50
n 0,5
[ ]
2 0,5
∑ ( Pi− Ṕ ) 26,13
σ P= i=1
( n−1 )
= [ 16 ] = 1,28
Perbandingannya adalah :
σP 1,28
= = 2,53
σX 0,50
Kesalahan Relatif
h Q data Q model
(%)
∑ ( Xi− X́ ) ( Pi− Ṕ )
i=1
R= n n 0,5
[∑ {
i=1
( Xi− X́ )
2
} ∑ {( Pi−P ) }
i=1
2
]
10.19
R= 0,5 = 0,97
[ ( 4,08 ) (27.09)]
R2 = 0,94
[ ]
2 0,5
∑ ( Xi− X́ ) 4,08
σ x= i=1
( n−1 )
= [ ] 16
= 0,50
n 0,5
[ ]
2 0,5
∑ ( Pi− Ṕ ) 21.09
σ P= i=1
( n−1 )
= [ 16 ] = 1,30
Perbandingannya adalah :
σP 1,30
= = 2,58
σX 0,50
Kesalahan Relatif
h Q data Q model
(%)
∑ ( Pi− Ṕ ) ( qi−q́ )
i=1
R= n n 0,5
[∑ {i=1
( Pi− Ṕ )
2 2
} ∑ {( qi−q ) }
i=1
]
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( Pi− Ṕ ) =
i=1
σ P=
( n−1 )
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( qi−q ) =
i=1
σ q=
( n−1 )
Keterangan :
^
P = persamaan regresi linier P terhadap X
R = koefisien korelasi
σ p = deviasi standar residu P
σ q = deviasi standar residu q
Perhitungan Model Regresi Berpangkat (Debit 1)
∑ ( Pi− Ṕ ) ( qi− q́ )
i=1
R= n n 0,5
[∑ {
i=1
( Pi−P ) 2
}∑ ( qi−q́ )
i=1
2
]
2,63
R= 0,5 = 0,87
[ (5,09 ) (1,79) ]
R2 = 0,76
[ ]
2
∑ ( Pi− Ṕ ) = 0,56
i=1
σ p=
( n−1 )
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( qi− q́ ) = 0,33
i=1
σ q=
( n−1 )
Perbandingannya adalah :
σP
= 1,69
σq
25.00
f(x) = 12.9 x^1.56
R² = 0.99
20.00
Lengkung Debit
15.00
Power (Lengkung
Debit)
10.00
5.00
0.00
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60
Q
model Kesalahan
h Q data
Relatif (%)
0 0 0.00 -
0.10 0.49 0.37 25.45
0.20 0.99 1.01 2.43
0.30 1.78 1.84 3.52
0.40 2.57 2.81 9.53
0.50 3.76 3.91 3.99
0.60 5.35 5.11 4.40
0.70 6.73 6.42 4.63
0.80 8.61 7.81 9.25
0.90 10.49 9.29 11.40
1.00 12.97 10.85 16.31
1.10 15.54 12.49 19.63
1.20 18.51 14.20 23.30
1.30 21.28 15.97 24.93
1.40 24.45 17.82 27.13
1.50 27.82 19.72 29.11
Kesalahan Relatif Maksimum 29.11
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan, 2018
∑ ( Pi− Ṕ ) ( qi− q́ )
i=1
R= n n 0,5
[∑ {
i=1
( Pi−P ) 2
}∑ ( qi−q́ )
i=1
2
]
2,73
R= 0,5 = 0,88
[ (5,36 ) (1.79)]
R2 = 0,78
[ ]
2
∑ ( Pi− Ṕ ) = 0,58
i=1
σ p=
( n−1 )
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( qi− q́ ) = 0,33
i=1
σ q=
( n−1 )
Perbandingannya adalah :
σP
= 1,73
σq
30.00
f(x) = 13 x^1.63
25.00 R² = 0.99
20.00
Power ()
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80
∑ ( Yi−Ý ) ( qi−q́ )
i=1
R= n n 0,5
[∑ {i=1
( Yi−Y ) 2 2
} ∑ {( qi−q ) }
i=1
]
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( Yi−Ý ) =
i =1
σY =
( n−1 )
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( qi−q ) =
i=1
σ q=
( n−1 )
Keterangan :
Y^ = persamaan regresi linier P terhadap X
R = koefisien korelasi
σ p = deviasi standar residu Y
σ q = deviasi standar residu q
∑ ( Yi−Y ) ( qi−q )
i=1
R= n n 0,5
[∑ {
i=1
2
( Yi−Ý ) } ∑ {( qi−q )
i=1
2
} ]
41,87
R= = 0,77
¿¿ ¿
R2 = 0,59
[ ]
2
∑ ( Yi−Ý ) = 10,15
i =1
σY =
( n−1 )
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( qi− q́ ) = 0,33
i=1
σ q=
( n−1 )
30.00
25.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80
Q Kesalaha
h model
Q data n Relatif
(%)
0.00 0.00 - -
0.10 0.49 -8.40 1814.92
0.20 0.99 -1.36 236.89
0.30 1.78 2.77 55.48
0.40 2.57 5.69 121.51
0.50 3.76 7.96 111.74
0.60 5.35 9.82 83.47
0.70 6.73 11.38 69.14
0.80 8.61 12.74 47.97
0.90 10.49 13.94 32.87
1.00 12.97 15.01 15.72
1.10 15.54 15.98 2.82
1.20 18.51 16.86 8.90
1.30 21.28 17.68 16.93
1.40 24.45 18.43 24.62
1.50 27.82 19.13 31.23
1.60 31.09 19.79 36.35
Kesalahan Relatif
Maksimum 1814.92
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan, 2018
∑ ( Yi−Y ) ( qi−q )
i=1
R= n n 0,5
[∑ {
i=1
2
( Yi−Ý ) } ∑ {( qi−q )
i=1
2
} ]
41,85
R= = 0,77
¿¿¿
R2 = 0,60
Deviasi Standar dari nilai residu dapat dihitung berdasarkan persamaaan :
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( Yi−Ý ) = 10,13
i =1
σY =
( n−1 )
n 0,5
[ ]
2
∑ ( qi− q́ ) = 0,33
i=1
σ q=
( n−1 )
30.00
25.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80
Q Kesalaha
h Q data model n Relatif
(%)
0.00 0.00 - -
0.10 0.40 -8.40 2200.77
0.20 0.95 -1.36 242.65
0.30 1.64 2.77 68.75
0.40 2.48 5.69 129.54
0.50 3.72 7.96 114.02
0.60 5.21 9.82 88.40
0.70 6.64 11.38 71.43
0.80 8.57 12.74 48.66
0.90 10.65 13.94 30.87
1.00 12.93 15.01 16.08
1.10 15.40 15.98 3.76
1.20 18.27 16.86 7.70
1.30 21.19 17.68 16.58
1.40 24.31 18.43 24.18
1.50 27.68 19.13 30.88
1.60 31.05 19.79 36.27
Kesalahan Relatif
Maksimum 2200.77
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan, 2018
6.2.5 Analisis Regresi Polinomial
Penggunaan persamaan linier bagi penggambaran hubungan antara dua
variabel hidrologi (Xi,Yi) yang tidak berasosiasi secara linier meskipun telah
ditransformasikan dalam model eksponensial, pangkat ataupun logaritmik, maka
akan menghasilkan garis taksir atau persamaan yang kurang tepat. Transformasi
persamaan kurva yang lebih tepat untuk kondisi tersebut dapat digunakan regresi
polinomial. Penurunan persamaannya dapat dilakukan dengan metode kuadrat
kecil.
Persamaan regresi polinomial orde ke m yang menyatakan hubungan dua
variabel data hidrologi (Xi,Yi) dapat disajikan sebagai berikut :
Y = b 0 +b 1 X + b2 X 2+ b3 X 3 +. … ..+ bm X m
Untuk regresi polinomial orde ke 2, persamaan umum disajikan sebagai
berikut :
y = a + bx + cx2
Nilai a, b, c dapat dicari dengan :
[n ∑ x i ∑ x 2i ] [ a ] = [ ∑ y i ]
[n ∑ x 2i ∑ x 3i ] [ b ] ¿ [ ∑ x i yi ]
[n ∑ x 3i ∑ x 4i ] [ c ] ¿ [ ∑ x 2i yi ]
Persamaannya adalah :
Q = a + b.h + c.h2
Q .h = a.h + b.h2 + c.h3
Q . h2 = a.h2 + b.h3 + c.h4
Persamaan 1 dan 3 :
17.000 a + 13.600 b + 14.960 c = 192.430 * 0.880
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c = 305.285 * 1.000
maka :
14.960 a + 11.968 b + 13.165 c = 169.338
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c = 305.285 -
-6.528 b + -11.220 c = -135.947 ------- pers. 5
Persamaan 4 dan 5 :
-4.080 b + -6.528 c = -79.639 * 1.000
-6.528 b + -11.220 c = -135.947 * 0.625
maka :
-4.080 b + -6.528 c = -79.639
-4.080 b + -7.013 c = -84.967 -
0.484 c = 5.328
c = 10.997
dari persamaan 5 :
-6.528 b + -11.220 c = -135.947
-6.528 b + -123.381 = -135.947
-6.528 b = -12.566
b = 1.925
5.00
0.00
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80
Kesalahan
h Q data Q model
Relatif (%)
Persamaannya adalah :
Q = a + b.h + c.h2
Q .h = a.h + b.h2 + c.h3
Q . h2 = a.h2 + b.h3 + c.h4
Persamaan 1 dan 3 :
17.000 a + 13.600 b + 14.960 c = 191.090 * 0.880
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c = 303.856 * 1.000
maka :
14.960 a + 11.968 b + 13.165 c = 168.159
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c = 303.856 -
-6.528 b + -11.220 c = -135.697 ------- pers. 5
Persamaan 4 dan 5 :
-4.080 b + -6.528 c = -79.492 * 1.000
-6.528 b + -11.220 c = -135.697 * 0.625
maka :
-4.080 b + -6.528 c = -79.492
-4.080 b + -7.013 c = -84.811 -
0.484 c = 5.319
c = 10.978
dari persamaan 5 :
-6.528 b + -11.220 c = -135.697
-6.528 b + -123.171 = -135.697
-6.528 b = -12.526
b= 1.919
No Xi (h) Yi (Q) Xi2 Xi3 Xi4 Xi5 Xi6 XiYi Xi2*Yi Xi3*Yi
1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 0.10 0.49 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00
3 0.20 0.99 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.04 0.01
4 0.30 1.78 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.16 0.05
5 0.40 2.57 0.16 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 1.03 0.41 0.16
6 0.50 3.76 0.25 0.13 0.06 0.03 0.02 1.88 0.94 0.47
7 0.60 5.35 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.08 0.05 3.21 1.93 1.16
8 0.70 6.73 0.49 0.34 0.24 0.17 0.12 4.71 3.30 2.31
9 0.80 8.61 0.64 0.51 0.41 0.33 0.26 6.89 5.51 4.41
10 0.90 10.49 0.81 0.73 0.66 0.59 0.53 9.44 8.50 7.65
11 1.00 12.97 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 12.97 12.97 12.97
12 1.10 15.54 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.61 1.77 17.09 18.80 20.68
13 1.20 18.51 1.44 1.73 2.07 2.49 2.99 22.21 26.65 31.99
14 1.30 21.28 1.69 2.20 2.86 3.71 4.83 27.66 35.96 46.75
15 1.40 24.45 1.96 2.74 3.84 5.38 7.53 34.23 47.92 67.09
16 1.50 27.82 2.25 3.38 5.06 7.59 11.39 41.73 62.60 93.89
17 1.60 31.09 2.56 4.10 6.55 10.49 16.78 49.74 79.59 127.34
Jumlah 13.60 192.43 14.96 18.50 24.38 33.48 47.26 233.58 305.29 416.93
Rerata 0.80 11.32 0.88 1.09 1.43 1.97 2.78 13.74 17.96 24.53
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan, 2016
Persamaannya adalah :
Q = a + b.h + c.h2 + d.h3
Q.h = a.h + b.h2 + c.h3+ d.h4
Q . h2 = a.h2 + b.h3 + c.h4 + d.h5
Q . h3 = a.h3 + b.h4 + c.h5 + d.h6
dari persamaan tersebut
didapatkan :
14.96 18.49
192.430 = 17 a + 13.600 b + 0 c + 6 d
18.49 24.38
233.583 = 13.600 a + 14.960 b + 6 c + 5 d
24.38 33.47
305.285 = 14.960 a + 18.496 b + 5 c + 8 d
33.47 47.26
416.930 = 18.496 a + 24.385 b + 8 c + 0 d
Dengan metode eliminasi didapat :
Persamaan 1 dan 2 :
17 a + 13.600 b + 14.960 c + 18.496 d = 192.430 * 0.8
13.600 a + 14.960 b + 18.496 c + 24.385 d = 233.583 * 1
maka :
13.6 a + 10.880 b + 11.968 c + 14.797 d = 153.944
13.600 a + 14.960 b + 18.496 c + 24.385 d = 233.583 -
-4.080 b + -6.528 c + -9.588 d = -79.639 --- pers.5
Persamaan 2 dan 3 :
13.600 a + 14.960 b + 18.496 c + 24.385 d = 233.583 * 1.1
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d = 305.285 * 1
maka :
14.960 a + 16.456 b + 20.346 c + 26.823 d = 256.941
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d = 305.285 -
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d = -48.344 --- pers. 6
Persamaan 3 dan 4 :
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d = 305.285 * 1.23636
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d = 416.930 * 1
maka :
18.496 a + 22.868 b + 30.148 c + 41.391 d = 377.444
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d = 416.930 -
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d = -39.486 --- pers. 7
Persamaan 5 dan 6 :
-4.080 b + -6.528 c + -9.588 d = -79.639 * 0.5
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d = -48.344 * 1
maka :
-2.040 b + -3.264 c + -4.794 d = -39.82
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d = -48.344 -
0.775 c + 1.860 d = 8.524 --- pers.8
Persamaan 6 dan 7:
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d = -48.344 * 0.74364
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d = -39.486 * 1
maka :
-1.517 b + -3.004 c + -4.949 d = -35.95
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d = -39.486 -
0.326 c + 0.921 d = 3.536 --- pers. 9
Persamaan 8 dan 9
0.775 c + 1.860 d = 8.524 * 0.420
0.326 c + 0.921 d = 3.536 * 1
Kesalahan Relatif
h Q data Q model
(%)
No Xi (h) Yi (Q) Xi2 Xi3 Xi4 Xi5 Xi6 XiYi Xi2*Yi Xi3*Yi
1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 0.10 0.40 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00
3 0.20 0.95 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.04 0.01
4 0.30 1.64 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.15 0.04
5 0.40 2.48 0.16 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.40 0.16
6 0.50 3.72 0.25 0.13 0.06 0.03 0.02 1.86 0.93 0.47
7 0.60 5.21 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.08 0.05 3.13 1.88 1.13
8 0.70 6.64 0.49 0.34 0.24 0.17 0.12 4.65 3.25 2.28
9 0.80 8.57 0.64 0.51 0.41 0.33 0.26 6.86 5.48 4.39
10 0.90 10.65 0.81 0.73 0.66 0.59 0.53 9.59 8.63 7.76
11 1.00 12.93 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 12.93 12.93 12.93
12 1.10 15.40 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.61 1.77 16.94 18.63 20.50
13 1.20 18.27 1.44 1.73 2.07 2.49 2.99 21.92 26.31 31.57
14 1.30 21.19 1.69 2.20 2.86 3.71 4.83 27.55 35.81 46.55
15 1.40 24.31 1.96 2.74 3.84 5.38 7.53 34.03 47.65 66.71
16 1.50 27.68 2.25 3.38 5.06 7.59 11.39 41.52 62.28 93.42
17 1.60 31.05 2.56 4.10 6.55 10.49 16.78 49.68 79.49 127.18
Jumlah 13.60 191.09 14.96 18.50 24.38 33.48 47.26 232.36 303.86 415.09
Rerata 0.80 11.24 0.88 1.09 1.43 1.97 2.78 13.67 17.87 24.42
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan, 2016
Persamaannya adalah :
Persamaan 2 dan 3 :
13.600 a + 14.960 b + 18.496 c + 24.385 d = 232.364 * 1.100
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d = 303.856 * 1.000
maka :
14.960 a + 16.456 b + 20.346 c + 26.823 d = 255.600
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d = 303.856 -
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d = -48.256 --- pers. 6
Persamaan 3 dan 4 :
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d = 303.856 * 1.236
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d = 415.090 * 1.000
maka :
18.496 a + 22.868 b + 30.148 c + 41.391 d = 375.677
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d = 415.090 -
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d = -39.413 --- pers. 7
Persamaan 5 dan 6 :
-4.080 b + -6.528 c + -9.588 d = -79.492 * 0.500
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d = -48.256 * 1.000
maka :
-2.040 b + -3.264 c + -4.794 d = -39.746
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d = -48.256 -
0.775 c + 1.860 d = 8.510 --- pers.8
Persamaan 6 dan 7:
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d = -48.256 * 0.744
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d = -39.413 * 1.000
maka :
-1.517 b + -3.004 c + -4.949 d = -35.885
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d = -39.413 -
0.326 c + 0.921 d = 3.528 --- pers. 9
Persamaan 8 dan 9
0.775 c + 1.860 d = 8.510 * 0.420
0.326 c + 0.921 d = 3.528 * 1.000
10.00
5.00
0.00
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80
Tabel 6.24. Perkiraan Debit Dengan Model Polinomial Orde 3
Kesalahan Relatif
h Q data Q model
(%)
No Xi (h) Yi (Q) Xi2 Xi3 Xi4 Xi5 Xi6 Xi7 Xi8 XiYi Xi2*Yi Xi3*Yi Xi4*Yi
1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 0.10 0.49 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
3 0.20 0.99 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.04 0.01 0.00
4 0.30 1.78 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.16 0.05 0.01
5 0.40 2.57 0.16 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.03 0.41 0.16 0.07
6 0.50 3.76 0.25 0.13 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 1.88 0.94 0.47 0.24
7 0.60 5.35 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.02 3.21 1.93 1.16 0.69
8 0.70 6.73 0.49 0.34 0.24 0.17 0.12 0.08 0.06 4.71 3.30 2.31 1.62
9 0.80 8.61 0.64 0.51 0.41 0.33 0.26 0.21 0.17 6.89 5.51 4.41 3.53
10 0.90 10.49 0.81 0.73 0.66 0.59 0.53 0.48 0.43 9.44 8.50 7.65 6.88
11 1.00 12.97 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 12.97 12.97 12.97 12.97
12 1.10 15.54 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.61 1.77 1.95 2.14 17.09 18.80 20.68 22.75
13 1.20 18.51 1.44 1.73 2.07 2.49 2.99 3.58 4.30 22.21 26.65 31.99 38.38
14 1.30 21.28 1.69 2.20 2.86 3.71 4.83 6.27 8.16 27.66 35.96 46.75 60.78
15 1.40 24.45 1.96 2.74 3.84 5.38 7.53 10.54 14.76 34.23 47.92 67.09 93.93
16 1.50 27.82 2.25 3.38 5.06 7.59 11.39 17.09 25.63 41.73 62.60 93.89 140.84
17 1.60 31.09 2.56 4.10 6.55 10.49 16.78 26.84 42.95 49.74 79.59 127.34 203.75
Jumlah 13.60 192.43 14.96 18.50 24.38 33.48 47.26 68.09 99.61 233.58 305.29 416.93 586.43
Rerata 0.80 11.32 0.88 1.09 1.43 1.97 2.78 4.01 5.86 13.74 17.96 24.53 34.50
Sumber: Perhitungan Hasil, 2016
Persamaannya adalah :
Q = a + b.h + c.h2 + d.h3 + e.h4
Q.h = a.h + b.h2 + c.h3 + d.h4 + e.h5
Q.h2 = a.h2 + b.h3 + c.h4 + d.h5 + e.h6
Q.h3 = a.h3 + b.h4 + c.h5 + d.h5 + e.h7
Q.h4 = a + b.h + c.h2 + d.h3 + e.h8
Persamaan 6 dan 7 :
-4.080 b + -6.528 c + -9.588 d + -13.970 e = -79.639
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e = -48.344
maka :
-2.040 b + -3.264 c + -4.794 d + -6.985 e = -39.820
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e = -48.344 -
0.775 c + 1.860 d + 3.450 e = 8.524 ---
Persamaan 7 dan 8 :
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e = -48.344
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e = -39.486
maka :
-1.517 b + -3.004 c + -4.949 d + -7.760 e = -35.950
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e = -39.486 -
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e = 3.536 ---
Persamaan 8 dan 9 :
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e = -39.486
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e = -36.762
maka :
-1.329 b + -2.917 c + -5.143 d + -8.460 e = -34.599
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e = -36.762 -
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e = 2.163 ---
Pers amaan 10 dan 11 :
0.775 c + 1.860 d + 3.450 e = 8.524
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e = 3.536
Maka :
0.326 c + 0.781 d + 1.449 e = 3.580
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e = 3.536
-0.140 d + -0.447 e = 0.045
5.00
0.00
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80
Kesalahan Relatif
h Q data Q model
(%)
0.00 0.00 0.00 ~
0.10 0.49 0.46 6.48
0.20 0.99 1.03 4.38
0.30 1.78 1.76 1.11
0.40 2.57 2.67 3.92
0.50 3.76 3.79 0.81
0.60 5.35 5.14 3.94
0.70 6.73 6.73 0.00
0.80 8.61 8.57 0.46
0.90 10.49 10.66 1.63
1.00 12.97 13.00 0.21
1.10 15.54 15.57 0.18
1.20 18.51 18.36 0.83
1.30 21.28 21.34 0.27
1.40 24.45 24.48 0.14
1.50 27.82 27.76 0.22
1.60 31.09 31.12 0.10
Kesalahan Relatif Maksimum 6.48
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan, 2016
Perhitungan Model Regresi Polinomial Orde 4 (Debit 2)
Tabel 6.27. Perhitungan Model Regresi Polinomial Orde 4
Hubungan Duga Air (h) dengan Debit (Q)
No Xi (h) Yi (Q) Xi2 Xi3 Xi4 Xi5 Xi6 Xi7 Xi8 XiYi Xi2*Yi Xi3*Yi Xi4*Yi
1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 0.10 0.40 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
3 0.20 0.95 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.04 0.01 0.00
4 0.30 1.64 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.15 0.04 0.01
0.40 2.48 0.16 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.40 0.16 0.06
5
6 0.50 3.72 0.25 0.13 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 1.86 0.93 0.47 0.23
7 0.60 5.21 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.02 3.13 1.88 1.13 0.68
8 0.70 6.64 0.49 0.34 0.24 0.17 0.12 0.08 0.06 4.65 3.25 2.28 1.59
9 0.80 8.57 0.64 0.51 0.41 0.33 0.26 0.21 0.17 6.86 5.48 4.39 3.51
10 0.90 10.65 0.81 0.73 0.66 0.59 0.53 0.48 0.43 9.59 8.63 7.76 6.99
11 1.00 12.93 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 12.93 12.93 12.93 12.93
12 1.10 15.40 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.61 1.77 1.95 2.14 16.94 18.63 20.50 22.55
13 1.20 18.27 1.44 1.73 2.07 2.49 2.99 3.58 4.30 21.92 26.31 31.57 37.88
14 1.30 21.19 1.69 2.20 2.86 3.71 4.83 6.27 8.16 27.55 35.81 46.55 60.52
15 1.40 24.31 1.96 2.74 3.84 5.38 7.53 10.54 14.76 34.03 47.65 66.71 93.39
16 1.50 27.68 2.25 3.38 5.06 7.59 11.39 17.09 25.63 41.52 62.28 93.42 140.13
17 1.60 31.05 2.56 4.10 6.55 10.49 16.78 26.84 42.95 49.68 79.49 127.18 203.49
Jumlah 13.60 191.09 14.96 18.50 24.38 33.48 47.26 68.09 99.61 232.36 303.86 415.09 583.97
Rerata 0.80 11.24 0.88 1.09 1.43 1.97 2.78 4.01 5.86 13.67 17.87 24.42 34.35
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan. 2016
Persamaannya adalah :
Q = a + b.h + c.h2 + d.h3 + e.h4
Q.h = a.h + b.h2 + c.h3 + d.h4 + e.h5
Q.h2 = a.h2 + b.h3 + c.h4 + d.h5 + e.h6
Q.h3 = a.h3 + b.h4 + c.h5 + d.h5 + e.h7
Q.h4 = a + b.h + c.h2 + d.h3 + e.h8
Persamaan 2 dan 3 :
228.59
13.600 a + 14.960 b + 18.496 c + 24.385 d + 33.478 e = 6 * 1.100
298.73
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e = 9 * 1.000
maka :
251.45
14.960 a + 16.456 b + 20.346 c + 26.823 d + 36.826 e = 6
298.73
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e = 9 -
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e = -47.283 --- pers. 7
Persamaan 3 dan 4 :
298.73
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e = 9 * 1.236
407.97
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e = 0 * 1.000
maka :
369.35
18.496 a + 22.868 b + 30.148 c + 41.391 d + 58.431 e = 0
407.97
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e = 0 -
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e = -38.620 --- pers. 8
Persamaan 4 dan 5 :
407.97
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e = 0 * 1.318
573.84
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 47.260 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e = 2 * 1.000
maka :
537.86
24.385 a + 32.148 b + 44.136 c + 62.307 d + 89.763 e = 0
573.84
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 47.260 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e = 2 -
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e = -35.982 --- pers. 9
Persamaan 6 dan 7 :
-4.080 b + -6.528 c + -9.588 d + -13.970 e = -77.940 * 0.500
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e = -47.283 * 1.000
maka :
-2.040 b + -3.264 c + -4.794 d + -6.985 e = -38.970
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e = -47.283 -
0.775 c + 1.860 d + 3.450 e = 8.313 --- pers.10
Persamaan 7 dan 8 :
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e = -47.283 * 0.744
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e = -38.620 * 1.000
maka :
-1.517 b + -3.004 c + -4.949 d + -7.760 e = -35.162
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e = -38.620 -
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e = 3.458 --- pers.11
Persamaan 8 dan 9 :
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e = -38.620 * 0.876
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e = -35.982 * 1.000
maka :
-1.329 b + -2.917 c + -5.143 d + -8.460 e = -33.840
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e = -35.982 -
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e = 2.142 --- pers.12
Persamaan 10 dan 11 :
0.775 c + 1.860 d + 3.450 e = 8.313 * 0.420
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e = 3.458 * 1.000
Maka :
0.326 c + 0.781 d + 1.449 e = 3.492
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e = 3.458 -
-0.140 d + -0.447 e = 0.033 --- pers.13
Persamaan 11 dan 12 :
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e = 3.458 * 0.634
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e = 2.142 * 1.000
Maka :
0.206 c + 0.584 d + 1.202 e = 2.192
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e = 2.142 -
-0.052 d + -0.190 e = 0.051 --- pers.14
Dari Persamaan 13 :
-0.140 d + -0.447 e = 0.033
-0.140 d + 0.710 = 0.033
-0.140 d = -0.677
d = 4.853
Dari Persamaan 12 :
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e = 2.142
0.206 c + 3.085 + -2.214 = 2.142
0.206 c = 1.271
c = 6.158
Dari Persamaan 9
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e = -35.982
-1.329 b + -19.234 + -28.044 + 15.675 = -35.982
-1.329 b = -4.379
b = 3.294
Dari Persamaan1
188.32
17.000 a + 13.600 b + 14.960 c + 18.496 d + 24.385 e = 0
188.32
17.000 a + 44.803 + 92.117 + 89.762 + -38.800 = 0
17.000 a = 0.438
a = 0.026
5.00
0.00
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80
Kesalahan Relatif
h Q data Q model
(%)
0.00 0.00 0.01 ~
0.10 0.40 0.38 4.38
0.20 0.95 0.92 3.14
0.30 1.64 1.65 0.32
0.40 2.48 2.57 3.80
0.50 3.72 3.72 0.02
0.60 5.21 5.09 2.23
0.70 6.64 6.70 0.92
0.80 8.57 8.54 0.29
0.90 10.65 10.63 0.23
1.00 12.93 12.94 0.07
1.10 15.40 15.48 0.50
1.20 18.27 18.23 0.21
1.30 21.19 21.19 0.01
1.40 24.31 24.33 0.07
1.50 27.68 27.63 0.17
1.60 31.05 31.08 0.08
Kesalahan Relatif Maksimum 4.38
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan, 2016
Perhitungan Model Regresi Polinomial Orde 5 (Debit 1)
No Xi (h) Yi (Q) Xi2 Xi3 Xi4 Xi5 Xi6 Xi7 Xi8 Xi9 Xi10 XiYi Xi2*Yi Xi3*Yi Xi4*Yi Xi5*Yi
1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 0.10 0.49 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3 0.20 0.99 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00
4 0.30 1.78 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.16 0.05 0.01 0.00
5 0.40 2.57 0.16 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.03 0.41 0.16 0.07 0.03
6 0.50 3.76 0.25 0.13 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.88 0.94 0.47 0.24 0.12
7 0.60 5.35 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 3.21 1.93 1.16 0.69 0.42
8 0.70 6.73 0.49 0.34 0.24 0.17 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.03 4.71 3.30 2.31 1.62 1.13
9 0.80 8.61 0.64 0.51 0.41 0.33 0.26 0.21 0.17 0.13 0.11 6.89 5.51 4.41 3.53 2.82
10 0.90 10.49 0.81 0.73 0.66 0.59 0.53 0.48 0.43 0.39 0.35 9.44 8.50 7.65 6.88 6.19
11 1.00 12.97 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 12.97 12.97 12.97 12.97 12.97
12 1.10 15.54 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.61 1.77 1.95 2.14 2.36 2.59 17.09 18.80 20.68 22.75 25.03
13 1.20 18.51 1.44 1.73 2.07 2.49 2.99 3.58 4.30 5.16 6.19 22.21 26.65 31.99 38.38 46.06
14 1.30 21.28 1.69 2.20 2.86 3.71 4.83 6.27 8.16 10.60 13.79 27.66 35.96 46.75 60.78 79.01
15 1.40 24.45 1.96 2.74 3.84 5.38 7.53 10.54 14.76 20.66 28.93 34.23 47.92 67.09 93.93 131.50
16 1.50 27.82 2.25 3.38 5.06 7.59 11.39 17.09 25.63 38.44 57.67 41.73 62.60 93.89 140.84 211.26
109.9
17 1.60 31.09 2.56 4.10 6.55 10.49 16.78 26.84 42.95 68.72 5 49.74 79.59 127.34 203.75 326.00
147.5 220.6
Jumlah 13.60 192.43 14.96 18.50 24.38 33.48 47.26 68.09 99.61 2 0 233.58 305.29 416.93 586.43 842.54
Rerata 0.80 11.32 0.88 1.09 1.43 1.97 2.78 4.01 5.86 8.68 12.98 13.74 17.96 24.53 34.50 49.56
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan, 2016
Persamaannya adalah :
Q = a + b.h + c.h2 + d.h3 + e.h4 + f.h5
Q.h = a.h + b.h2 + c.h3 + d.h4 + e.h5+ f.h6
Q.h2 = a.h2 + b.h3 + c.h4 + d.h5 + e.h6 + f.h7
Q.h3 = a.h3 + b.h4 + c.h5 + d.h6 + e.h7 + f.h8
Q.h4 = a.h4 + b.h5 + c.h6 + d.h7 + e.h8+ f.h9
Q.h5 = a.h5 + b.h6 + c.h7+ d.h8 + e.h9+ f.h10
Persamaan 2 dan 3 :
229.53
13.600 a + 14.960 b + 18.496 c + 24.385 d + 33.478 e + 47.260 f = 4 * 1.10
299.85
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e + 68.086 f = 3 * 1
maka :
252.48
14.960 a + 16.456 b + 20.346 c + 26.823 d + 36.826 e + 51.986 f = 7
299.85
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e + 68.086 f = 3 -
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f = -47.366 --- pers.8
Persamaan 3 dan 4 :
299.85
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e + 68.086 f = 3 * 1.23636
409.41
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e + 99.614 f = 3 * 1
maka :
370.72
18.496 a + 22.868 b + 30.148 c + 41.391 d + 58.431 e + 84.179 f = 8
409.41
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e + 99.614 f = 3 -
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f = -38.685 --- pers.9
Persamaan 4 dan 5 :
409.41
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e + 99.614 f = 3 * 1.31838
147.52 575.77
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 47.260 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e + 0 f = 6 * 1
maka :
131.33 539.76
24.3848 a + 32.148 b + 44.136 c + 62.307 d + 89.763 e + 0 f = 2
147.52 575.77
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 47.260 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e + 0 f = 6 -
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f = -36.014 --- pers.10
Persamaan 5 dan 6 :
147.52 575.77
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 47.260 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e + 0 f = 6 * 1.37289
220.60 827.13
33.478 a + 47.260 b + 68.086 c + 99.614 d + 147.520 e + 4 f = 9 * 1
maka :
202.53 790.48
33.4778 a + 45.961 b + 64.883 c + 93.474 d + 136.760 e + 0 f = 0
220.60 827.13
33.478 a + 47.260 b + 68.086 c + 99.614 d + 147.520 e + 4 f = 9 -
-1.299 b + -3.202 c + -6.140 d + -10.760 e + -18.074 f = -36.660 --- pers.11
Persamaan 7 dan 8 :
-4.080 b + -6.528 c + -9.588 d + -13.970 e + -20.478 f = -78.070 * 0.5000
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f = -47.366 * 1
maka :
-2.040 b + -3.264 c + -4.794 d + -6.985 e + -10.239 f = -39.035
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f = -47.366
--
0.775 c + 1.860 d + 3.450 e + 5.861 f = 8.331 - pers.12
Persamaan 8 dan 9 :
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f = -47.366 * 0.7436
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f = -38.685 * 1
maka :
-1.517 b + -3.004 c + -4.949 d + -7.760 e + -11.972 f = -35.223
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f = -38.685
--
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f = 3.462 - pers.13
Persamaan 9 dan 10 :
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f = -38.685 * 0.8762
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f = -36.014 * 1
maka :
-1.329 b + -2.917 c + -5.143 d + -8.460 e + -13.526 f = -33.897
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f = -36.014
--
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f = 2.117 - pers.14
Persamaan 10 dan 11 :
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f = -36.014 * 0.9770
-1.299 b + -3.202 c + -6.140 d + -10.760 e + -18.074 f = -36.660 * 1
maka :
-1.299 b + -3.052 c + -5.646 d + -9.625 e + -15.818 f = -35.186
-1.299 b + -3.202 c + -6.140 d + -10.760 e + -18.074 f = -36.660
--
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f = 1.474 - pers.15
Persamaan 12 dan 13 :
0.775 c + 1.860 d + 3.450 e + 5.861 f = 8.331 * 0.420
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f = 3.462 * 1
Maka :
0.326 c + 0.781 d + 1.449 e + 2.461 f = 3.499
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f = 3.462 -
--
-0.140 d + -0.447 e + -1.002 f = 0.037 - pers.16
Persamaan 13 dan 14 :
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f = 3.462 * 0.634
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f = 2.117 * 1
Maka :
0.206 c + 0.584 d + 1.202 e + 2.196 f = 2.195
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f = 2.117 -
--
-0.052 d + -0.190 e + -0.469 f = 0.078 - pers.17
Persamaan 14 dan 15 :
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f = 2.117 * 0.730
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f = 1.474 * 1
Maka :
0.151 c + 0.464 d + 1.016 e + 1.945 f = 1.545
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f = 1.474 -
--
-0.030 d + -0.120 e + -0.312 f = 0.071 - pers.18
Dari persamaan 15 :
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f = 1.474
0.151 c + 1.444 + 1.255 + -2.114 = 1.474
0.151 c = 0.8879
c = 5.8944
Dari Persamaan 7
-4.080 b + -6.528 c + -9.588 d + -13.970 e + -20.478 f = -78.070
-4.080 b + -38.479 + -28.016 + -15.450 + 19.182 = -78.070
-4.080 b = -15.308
b = 3.752
Dari persamaan 1 :
17 a + 13.6 b + 14.96 c + 18.496 d + 24.3848 e + 33.47776 f = 189.33
17 a + 51.02579487 + 88.1801417 + 54.04577598 + 26.96759109 + -31.35965452 = 189.33
17 a = 0.470351
a = 0.027668
dari perhitungan didapatkan :
a= 0.028
b= 3.752
c= 5.894
d= 2.922
e= 1.106
f= -0.937
maka persamaannya
menjadi :
y= 0.028 + 3.752 x + 5.894 x2 + 2.922 x3 + 1.106 x4 + -0.937 x5
Grafik 6.15. Hubungan H dan Q
Kesalahan Relatif
h Q data Q model
(%)
0.00 0.00 0.02 ~
0.10 0.49 0.44 11.10
0.20 0.99 1.01 1.77
0.30 1.78 1.75 1.65
0.40 2.57 2.68 4.27
0.50 3.76 3.81 1.36
0.60 5.35 5.16 3.53
0.70 6.73 6.74 0.20
0.80 8.61 8.57 0.46
0.90 10.49 10.65 1.50
1.00 12.97 12.98 0.04
1.10 15.54 15.55 0.04
1.20 18.51 18.35 0.88
1.30 21.28 21.35 0.32
1.40 24.45 24.51 0.24
1.50 27.82 27.78 0.14
1.60 31.09 31.09 0.01
Kesalahan Relatif Maksimum 11.10
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan, 2016
Perhitungan Model Regresi Polinomial Orde 5 (Debit 2)
Persamaan 2 dan 3 :
228.59
13.600 a + 14.960 b + 18.496 c + 24.385 d + 33.478 e + 47.260 f = 6 * 1.100
298.73
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e + 68.086 f = 9 * 1.000
maka :
251.45
14.960 a + 16.456 b + 20.346 c + 26.823 d + 36.826 e + 51.986 f = 6
298.73
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e + 68.086 f = 9 -
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f = -47.283 --- pers.8
Persamaan 3 dan 4 :
298.73
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 24.385 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e + 68.086 f = 9 * 1.236
407.97
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e + 99.614 f = 0 * 1.000
maka :
369.35
18.496 a + 22.868 b + 30.148 c + 41.391 d + 58.431 e + 84.179 f = 0
407.97
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e + 99.614 f = 0 -
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f = -38.620 --- pers.9
Persamaan 4 dan 5 :
407.97
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 33.478 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e + 99.614 f = 0 * 1.318
147.52 573.84
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 47.260 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e + 0 f = 2 * 1.000
maka :
131.33 537.86
24.385 a + 32.148 b + 44.136 c + 62.307 d + 89.763 e + 0 f = 0
147.52 573.84
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 47.260 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e + 0 f = 2 -
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f = -35.982 --- pers.1
0
Persamaan 5 dan 6 :
147.52 573.84
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 47.260 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e + 0 f = 2 * 1.373
147.52 220.60 824.50
33.478 a + 47.260 b + 68.086 c + 99.614 d + 0 e + 4 f = 0 * 1.000
maka :
136.76 202.53 787.82
33.478 a + 45.961 b + 64.883 c + 93.474 d + 0 e + 0 f = 5
147.52 220.60 824.50
33.478 a + 47.260 b + 68.086 c + 99.614 d + 0 e + 4 f = 0 -
pers.1
-1.299 b + -3.202 c + -6.140 d + -10.760 e + -18.074 f = -36.675 --- 1
Persamaan 7 dan 8 :
-4.080 b + -6.528 c + -9.588 d + -13.970 e + -20.478 f = -77.940 * 0.500
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f = -47.283 * 1.000
maka :
-2.040 b + -3.264 c + -4.794 d + -6.985 e + -10.239 f = -38.970
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f = -47.283
-- pers.1
0.775 c + 1.860 d + 3.450 e + 5.861 f = 8.313 - 2
Persamaan 8 dan 9 :
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f = -47.283 * 0.744
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f = -38.620 * 1.000
maka :
-1.517 b + -3.004 c + -4.949 d + -7.760 e + -11.972 f = -35.162
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f = -38.620
-- pers.1
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f = 3.458 - 3
Persamaan 9 dan 10 :
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f = -38.620 * 0.876
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f = -35.982 * 1.000
maka :
-1.329 b + -2.917 c + -5.143 d + -8.460 e + -13.526 f = -33.840
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f = -35.982
-- pers.1
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f = 2.142 - 4
Persamaan 10 dan 11 :
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f = -35.982 * 0.977
-1.299 b + -3.202 c + -6.140 d + -10.760 e + -18.074 f = -36.675 * 1.000
maka :
-1.299 b + -3.052 c + -5.646 d + -9.625 e + -15.818 f = -35.154
-1.299 b + -3.202 c + -6.140 d + -10.760 e + -18.074 f = -36.675
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f = 1.520 -- pers.1
- 5
Persamaan 12 dan 13 :
0.775 c + 1.860 d + 3.450 e + 5.861 f = 8.313 * 0.420
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f = 3.458 * 1.000
Maka :
0.326 c + 0.781 d + 1.449 e + 2.461 f = 3.492
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f = 3.458 -
-- pers.1
-0.140 d + -0.447 e + -1.002 f = 0.033 - 6
Persamaan 13 dan 14 :
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f = 3.458 * 0.634
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f = 2.142 * 1.000
Maka :
0.206 c + 0.584 d + 1.202 e + 2.196 f = 2.192
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f = 2.142 -
-- pers.1
-0.052 d + -0.190 e + -0.469 f = 0.051 - 7
Persamaan 14 dan 15 :
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f = 2.142 * 0.730
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f = 1.520 * 1.000
Maka :
0.151 c + 0.464 d + 1.016 e + 1.945 f = 1.563
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f = 1.520 -
-- pers.1
-0.030 d + -0.120 e + -0.312 f = 0.043 - 8
f = -0.009
Dari persamaan 20 :
0.008 e + 0.036 f = -0.013
0.008 e + 0.000 = -0.013
e = -1.555
Dari persamaan 18 :
-0.030 d + -0.120 e + -0.312 f = 0.043
-0.030 d + 0.186 + 0.003 = 0.043
-0.030 d = -0.146
d = 4.803
Dari persamaan 15 :
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f = 1.520
0.151 c + 2.374 + -1.766 + -0.020 = 1.520
0.151 c = 0.932
c = 6.186
Dari Persamaan 7
-4.080 b + -6.528 c + -9.588 d + -13.970 e + -20.478 f = -77.940
-4.080 b + -40.385 + -46.050 + 21.729 + 0.183 = -77.940
-4.080 b = -13.417
b = 3.288
Dari persamaan 1 :
17.000 a + 13.600 b + 14.960 c + 18.496 d + 24.385 e + 33.478 f = 188.320
17.000 a + 44.723 + 92.550 + 88.834 + -37.929 + -0.299 = 188.320
17.000 a = 0.441
a = 0.026
dari perhitungan
didapatkan :
a= 0.026
b= 3.288
c= 6.186
d= 4.803
e= -1.555
f= -0.009
0.02 3.28 6.18
y= 6 + 8 x + 6 x2 + 4.803 x3 + -1.555 x4 + -0.009 x5
Grafik 6.16. Hubungan H dan Q
Kesalahan
h Q data Q model
Relatif (%)
0.00 0.00 0.02 ~
0.10 0.40 0.38 6.05
0.20 0.95 0.91 3.94
0.30 1.64 1.64 0.14
0.40 2.48 2.58 3.91
0.50 3.72 3.73 0.18
0.60 5.21 5.10 2.10
0.70 6.64 6.71 0.98
0.80 8.57 8.54 0.29
0.90 10.65 10.62 0.27
1.00 12.93 12.93 0.02
1.10 15.40 15.47 0.46
1.20 18.27 18.23 0.22
1.30 21.19 21.19 0.00
1.40 24.31 24.34 0.10
1.50 27.68 27.64 0.15
1.60 31.05 31.07 0.06
Kesalahan Relatif Maksimum 6.05
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan, 2016
Perhitungan Model Regresi Polinomial Orde 6 (Debit 1)
Xi2*Y
No Xi Yi Xi2 Xi3 Xi4 Xi5 Xi6 Xi7 Xi8 Xi9 Xi10 Xi11 Xi12 XiYi Xi3*Yi Xi4*Yi Xi5*Yi Xi6*Yi
i
0.00 0.00 0.00
1 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.01 0.00 0.00
2 0.10 0.49 0 1 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.049 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.04 0.00 0.00
3 0.20 0.99 0 8 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.198 0.040 0.008 0.002 0.000 0.000
0.09 0.02 0.00
4 0.30 1.78 0 7 8 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.534 0.160 0.048 0.014 0.004 0.001
0.16 0.06 0.02
5 0.40 2.57 0 4 6 0.010 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.028 0.411 0.164 0.066 0.026 0.011
0.25 0.12 0.06
6 0.50 3.76 0 5 3 0.031 0.016 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 1.880 0.940 0.470 0.235 0.118 0.059
0.36 0.21 0.13
7 0.60 5.35 0 6 0 0.078 0.047 0.028 0.017 0.010 0.006 0.004 0.002 3.210 1.926 1.156 0.693 0.416 0.250
0.49 0.34 0.24
8 0.70 6.73 0 3 0 0.168 0.118 0.082 0.058 0.040 0.028 0.020 0.014 4.711 3.298 2.308 1.616 1.131 0.792
0.64 0.51 0.41
9 0.80 8.61 0 2 0 0.328 0.262 0.210 0.168 0.134 0.107 0.086 0.069 6.888 5.510 4.408 3.527 2.821 2.257
0.81 0.72 0.65
10 0.90 10.49 0 9 6 0.590 0.531 0.478 0.430 0.387 0.349 0.314 0.282 9.441 8.497 7.647 6.882 6.194 5.575
1.00 1.00 1.00 12.97 12.97
11 1.00 12.97 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0 0 12.970 12.970 12.970 12.970
1.21 1.33 1.46 17.09 18.80
12 1.10 15.54 0 1 4 1.611 1.772 1.949 2.144 2.358 2.594 2.853 3.138 4 3 20.684 22.752 25.027 27.530
1.44 1.72 2.07 22.21 26.65
13 1.20 18.51 0 8 4 2.488 2.986 3.583 4.300 5.160 6.192 7.430 8.916 2 4 31.985 38.382 46.059 55.271
1.69 2.19 2.85 10.60 27.66 35.96 102.71
14 1.30 21.28 0 7 6 3.713 4.827 6.275 8.157 4 13.786 17.922 23.298 4 3 46.752 60.778 79.011 4
1.96 2.74 3.84 10.54 14.75 20.66 34.23 47.92 131.49 184.09
15 1.40 24.45 0 4 2 5.378 7.530 1 8 1 28.925 40.496 56.694 0 2 67.091 93.927 8 7
2.25 3.37 5.06 11.39 17.08 25.62 38.44 129.74 41.73 62.59 140.83 211.25 316.88
16 1.50 27.82 0 5 3 7.594 1 6 9 3 57.665 86.498 6 0 5 93.893 9 8 7
2.56 4.09 6.55 10.48 16.77 26.84 42.95 68.71 109.95 175.92 281.47 49.74 79.59 127.34 203.75 326.00 521.60
17 1.60 31.09 0 6 4 6 7 4 0 9 1 2 5 4 0 5 1 2 4
Jumla 13.6 192.4 14.9 18.5 24.3 147.5 233.5 305.2 1230.0
h 0 3 6 0 8 33.48 47.26 68.09 99.61 2 220.60 332.54 504.64 8 9 416.93 586.43 842.54 2
0.80 11.31 0.88 1.08 1.43 13.74 17.95
Rerata 0 9 0 8 4 1.969 2.780 4.005 5.860 8.678 12.977 19.561 29.684 0 8 24.525 34.496 49.561 72.354
Sumber:Hasil Perhitungan, 2016
Persamaannya adalah :
Q = a + b.h + c.h2 + d.h3 + e.h4 + f.h5 + g.h6
Q.h = a.h + b.h2 + c.h3 + d.h4 + e.h5+ f.h6 + g.h7
Q . h2 = a.h2 + b.h3 + c.h4 + d.h5 + e.h6 + f.h7 + g.h8
Q . h3 = a.h3 + b.h4 + c.h5 + d.h6 + e.h7 + f.h8 + g.h9
Q . h4 = a.h4 + b.h5 + c.h6 + d.h7 + e.h8+ f.h9 + g.h10
Q . h5 = a.h5 + b.h6 + c.h7+ d.h8 + e.h9+ f.h10 + g.h11
Q . h6 = a.h6 + b.h7 + c.h8+ d.h9 + e.h10+ f.h11 + g.h12
Persamaan 2 dan 3
:
18.49
13.600 a + 14.960 b + 6 c + 24.385 d + 33.478 e + 47.260 f + 68.086 g = 229.534 * 1.1
24.38
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 5 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e + 68.086 f + 99.614 g = 299.853 * 1
maka :
20.34
14.960 a + 16.456 b + 6 c + 26.823 d + 36.826 e + 51.986 f + 74.894 g = 252.4874
24.38
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 5 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e + 68.086 f + 99.614 g = 299.853 -
--
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f + -24.720 g = -47.366 - pers.9
Persamaan 3 dan 4
:
24.38
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 5 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e + 68.086 f + 99.614 g = 299.853 * 1.236364
33.47
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 8 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e + 99.614 f + 147.520 g = 409.413 * 1
maka :
30.14
18.496 a + 22.868 b + 8 c + 41.391 d + 58.431 e + 84.179 f + 123.160 g = 370.7278
33.47
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 8 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e + 99.614 f + 147.520 g = 409.413 -
--
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f + -24.361 g = -38.685 - pers.10
Persamaan 4 dan 5
:
33.47
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 8 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e + 99.614 f + 147.520 g = 409.413 * 1.318382
47.26
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 0 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e + 147.520 f + 220.604 g = 575.776 * 1
maka :
44.13
24.385 a + 32.148 b + 6 c + 62.307 d + 89.763 e + 131.330 f + 194.488 g = 539.7623
47.26
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 0 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e + 147.520 f + 220.604 g = 575.776 -
--
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f + -26.116 g = -36.014 - pers.11
Persamaan 5 dan 6
:
47.26
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 0 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e + 147.520 f + 220.604 g = 575.776 * 1.372895
68.08
33.478 a + 47.260 b + 6 c + 99.614 d + 147.520 e + 220.604 f + 332.544 g = 827.139 * 1
maka :
64.88
33.478 a + 45.961 b + 3 c + 93.474 d + 136.760 e + 202.530 f + 302.867 g = 790.4799
68.08
33.478 a + 47.260 b + 6 c + 99.614 d + 147.520 e + 220.604 f + 332.544 g = 827.139 -
--
-1.299 b + -3.202 c + -6.140 d + -10.760 e + -18.074 f + -29.677 g = -36.660 - pers.12
Persamaan 6 dan 7
:
33.478 a + 47.260 b + 68.08 c + 99.614 d + 147.520 e + 220.604 f + 332.544 g = 827.139 * 1.411688
6
99.61
47.260 a + 68.086 b + 4 c + 147.520 d + 220.604 e + 332.544 f + 504.635 g = 1207.449 * 1
maka :
96.11
47.260 a + 66.717 b + 6 c + 140.625 d + 208.253 e + 311.425 f + 469.448 g = 1167.662
99.61
47.260 a + 68.086 b + 4 c + 147.520 d + 220.604 e + 332.544 f + 504.635 g = 1207.449 -
--
-1.369 b + -3.499 c + -6.896 d + -12.352 e + -21.119 f + -35.188 g = -39.787 - pers.13
Persamaan 8 dan 9 :
-4.080 b + -6.528 c + -9.588 d + -13.970 e + -20.478 f + -30.278 g = -78.070 * 0.5000
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f + -24.720 g = -47.366 * 1
maka :
-2.040 b + -3.264 c + -4.794 d + -6.985 e + -10.239 f + -15.139 g = -39.035
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f + -24.720 g = -47.366
0.775 c + 1.860 d + 3.450 e + 5.861 f + 9.582 g = 8.331 --- pers.14
Persamaan 9 dan
10 :
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f + -24.720 g = -47.366 * 0.7436
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f + -24.361 g = -38.685 * 1
maka :
-1.517 b + -3.004 c + -4.949 d + -7.760 e + -11.972 f + -18.383 g = -35.223
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f + -24.361 g = -38.685
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f + 5.978 g = 3.462 --- pers.15
Persamaan 10 dan 11 :
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f + -24.361 g = -38.685 * 0.8762
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f + -26.116 g = -36.014 * 1
maka :
-1.329 b + -2.917 c + -5.143 d + -8.460 e + -13.526 f + -21.346 g = -33.897
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f + -26.116 g = -36.014
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f + 4.770 g = 2.117 --- pers.16
Persamaan 11 dan 12 :
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f + -26.116 g = -36.014 * 0.9770
-1.299 b + -3.202 c + -6.140 d + -10.760 e + -18.074 f + -29.677 g = -36.660 * 1
maka :
-1.299 b + -3.052 c + -5.646 d + -9.625 e + -15.818 f + -25.516 g = -35.186
-1.299 b + -3.202 c + -6.140 d + -10.760 e + -18.074 f + -29.677 g = -36.660
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f + 4.161 g = 1.474 --- pers.17
Persamaan 14 dan 15 :
0.775 c + 1.860 d + 3.450 e + 5.861 f + 9.582 g = 8.331 * 0.420
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f + 5.978 g = 3.462 * 1
Maka :
0.326 c + 0.781 d + 1.449 e + 2.461 f + 4.024 g = 3.499
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f + 5.978 g = 3.462 -
- --
-0.140 d 0.447 e + -1.002 f + -1.954 g = 0.037 - pers.19
Persamaan 15 dan 16 :
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f + 5.978 g = 3.462 * 0.634
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f + 4.770 g = 2.117 * 1
Maka :
0.206 c + 0.584 d + 1.202 e + 2.196 f + 3.790 g = 2.195
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f + 4.770 g = 2.117 -
- --
-0.052 d 0.190 e + -0.469 f + -0.981 g = 0.078 - pers.20
Persamaan 16 dan 17 :
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f + 4.770 g = 2.117 * 0.730
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f + 4.161 g = 1.474 * 1
Maka :
0.151 c + 0.464 d + 1.016 e + 1.945 f + 3.481 g = 1.545
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f + 4.161 g = 1.474 -
- --
-0.030 d 0.120 e + -0.312 f + -0.680 g = 0.071 - pers.21
maka persamaannya
menjadi :
y= 0.023 + 4.019 x + 3.945 x2 + 8.091 x3 + -5.104 x4 + 2.509 x5 + -0.718 x6
Grafik 6.17. Hubungan H dan Q
Kesalahan Relatif
h Q data Q model
(%)
0.00 0.00 0.02 ~
0.10 0.49 0.44 0.10
0.20 0.99 1.01 0.02
0.30 1.78 1.75 0.02
0.40 2.57 2.68 0.04
0.50 3.76 3.81 0.01
0.60 5.35 5.16 0.04
0.70 6.73 6.75 0.00
0.80 8.61 8.57 0.00
0.90 10.49 10.65 0.02
1.00 12.97 12.97 0.00
1.10 15.54 15.55 0.00
1.20 18.51 18.34 0.01
1.30 21.28 21.35 0.00
1.40 24.45 24.51 0.00
1.50 27.82 27.78 0.00
1.60 31.09 31.09 0.00
Kesalahan Relatif Maksimum 0.10
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan, 2016
Perhitungan Model Regresi Polinomial Orde 6 (Debit 2)
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2 3 4 5 6
No Xi Yi Xi Xi Xi Xi Xi Xi Xi Xi Xi Xi Xi XiYi Xi *Yi Xi *Yi Xi *Yi Xi *Yi Xi *Yi
1 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2 0.100 0.40 0.010 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
3 0.200 0.95 0.040 0.008 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.190 0.038 0.008 0.002 0.000 0.000
4 0.300 1.64 0.090 0.027 0.008 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.492 0.148 0.044 0.013 0.004 0.001
5 0.400 2.48 0.160 0.064 0.026 0.010 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.992 0.397 0.159 0.063 0.025 0.010
6 0.500 3.72 0.250 0.125 0.063 0.031 0.016 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 1.860 0.930 0.465 0.233 0.116 0.058
7 0.600 5.21 0.360 0.216 0.130 0.078 0.047 0.028 0.017 0.010 0.006 0.004 0.002 3.126 1.876 1.125 0.675 0.405 0.243
8 0.700 6.64 0.490 0.343 0.240 0.168 0.118 0.082 0.058 0.040 0.028 0.020 0.014 4.648 3.254 2.278 1.594 1.116 0.781
9 0.800 8.57 0.640 0.512 0.410 0.328 0.262 0.210 0.168 0.134 0.107 0.086 0.069 6.856 5.485 4.388 3.510 2.808 2.247
10 0.900 10.65 0.810 0.729 0.656 0.590 0.531 0.478 0.430 0.387 0.349 0.314 0.282 9.585 8.627 7.764 6.987 6.289 5.660
11 1.000 12.93 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 12.930 12.930 12.930 12.930 12.930 12.930
12 1.100 15.40 1.210 1.331 1.464 1.611 1.772 1.949 2.144 2.358 2.594 2.853 3.138 16.940 18.634 20.497 22.547 24.802 27.282
13 1.200 18.27 1.440 1.728 2.074 2.488 2.986 3.583 4.300 5.160 6.192 7.430 8.916 21.924 26.309 31.571 37.885 45.462 54.554
14 1.300 21.19 1.690 2.197 2.856 3.713 4.827 6.275 8.157 10.604 13.786 17.922 23.298 27.547 35.811 46.554 60.521 78.677 102.280
15 1.400 24.31 1.960 2.744 3.842 5.378 7.530 10.541 14.758 20.661 28.925 40.496 56.694 34.034 47.648 66.707 93.389 130.745 183.043
16 1.500 27.68 2.250 3.375 5.063 7.594 11.391 17.086 25.629 38.443 57.665 86.498 129.746 41.520 62.280 93.420 140.130 210.195 315.293
17 1.600 31.05 2.560 4.096 6.554 10.486 16.777 26.844 42.950 68.719 109.951 175.922 281.475 49.680 79.488 127.181 203.489 325.583 520.933
Jumlah 13.600 191.090 14.960 18.496 24.385 33.478 47.260 68.086 99.614 147.520 220.604 332.544 504.635 232.364 303.856 415.090 583.969 839.157 1225.314
Rerata 0.800 11.241 0.880 1.088 1.434 1.969 2.780 4.005 5.860 8.678 12.977 19.561 29.684 13.668 17.874 24.417 34.351 49.362 72.077
Persamaan 2 dan 3 :
18.49
13.600 a + 14.960 b + 6 c + 24.385 d + 33.478 e + 47.260 f + 68.086 g = 228.596 * 1.100
24.38
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 5 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e + 68.086 f + 99.614 g = 298.739 * 1.000
maka :
20.34
14.960 a + 16.456 b + 6 c + 26.823 d + 36.826 e + 51.986 f + 74.894 g = 251.456
24.38
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 5 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e + 68.086 f + 99.614 g = 298.739 -
-2.040 b + -4.039 c + -6.654 d + -10.435 e + -16.099 f + -24.720 g = -47.283 --- pers.9
Persamaan 3 dan 4 :
24.38
14.960 a + 18.496 b + 5 c + 33.478 d + 47.260 e + 68.086 f + 99.614 g = 298.739 * 1.236
33.47 147.52
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 8 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e + 99.614 f + 0 g = 407.970 * 1.000
maka :
30.14 123.16
18.496 a + 22.868 b + 8 c + 41.391 d + 58.431 e + 84.179 f + 0 g = 369.350
33.47 147.52
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 8 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e + 99.614 f + 0 g = 407.970 -
-1.517 b + -3.329 c + -5.869 d + -9.655 e + -15.436 f + -24.361 g = -38.620 --- pers.10
Persamaan 4 dan 5 :
33.47 147.52
18.496 a + 24.385 b + 8 c + 47.260 d + 68.086 e + 99.614 f + 0 g = 407.970 * 1.318
47.26 147.52 220.60
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 0 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e + 0 f + 4 g = 573.842 * 1.000
maka :
44.13 131.33 194.48
24.385 a + 32.148 b + 6 c + 62.307 d + 89.763 e + 0 f + 8 g = 537.860
47.26 147.52 220.60
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 0 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e + 0 f + 4 g = 573.842 -
-1.329 b + -3.124 c + -5.779 d + -9.852 e + -16.190 f + -26.116 g = -35.982 --- pers.11
Persamaan 5 dan 6 :
47.26 147.52 220.60
24.385 a + 33.478 b + 0 c + 68.086 d + 99.614 e + 0 f + 4 g = 573.842 * 1.373
33.478 a + 47.260 b + 68.08 c + 99.614 d + 147.52 e + 220.60 f + 332.54 g = 824.500 * 1.000
6 0 4 4
maka :
64.88 136.76 202.53 302.86
33.478 a + 45.961 b + 3 c + 93.474 d + 0 e + 0 f + 7 g = 787.825
68.08 147.52 220.60 332.54
33.478 a + 47.260 b + 6 c + 99.614 d + 0 e + 4 f + 4 g = 824.500 -
-1.299 b + -3.202 c + -6.140 d + -10.760 e + -18.074 f + -29.677 g = -36.675 --- pers.12
Persamaan 6 dan 7 :
68.08 147.52 220.60 332.54
33.478 a + 47.260 b + 6 c + 99.614 d + 0 e + 4 f + 4 g = 824.500 * 1.412
99.61 147.52 220.60 332.54 504.63
47.260 a + 68.086 b + 4 c + 0 d + 4 e + 4 f + 5 g = 1203.801 * 1.000
maka :
96.11 140.62 208.25 311.42 469.44
47.260 a + 66.717 b + 6 c + 5 d + 3 e + 5 f + 8 g = 1163.936
99.61 147.52 220.60 332.54 504.63
47.260 a + 68.086 b + 4 c + 0 d + 4 e + 4 f + 5 g = 1203.801 -
-1.369 b + -3.499 c + -6.896 d + -12.352 e + -21.119 f + -35.188 g = -39.865 --- pers.13
Persamaan 8 dan 9 :
- - - - - -
-4.080 b + 6.528 c + 9.588 d + 13.970 e + 20.478 f + 30.278 g = 77.940 * 0.500
- - - - - -
-2.040 b + 4.039 c + 6.654 d + 10.435 e + 16.099 f + 24.720 g = 47.283 * 1.000
maka :
- - - - -
-2.040 b + 3.264 c + 4.794 d + -6.985 e + 10.239 f + 15.139 g = 38.970
- - - - - -
-2.040 b + 4.039 c + 6.654 d + 10.435 e + 16.099 f + 24.720 g = 47.283
--
0.775 c + 1.860 d + 3.450 e + 5.861 f + 9.582 g = 8.313 - pers.14
Persamaan 9 dan 10 :
- - - - - -
-2.040 b + 4.039 c + 6.654 d + 10.435 e + 16.099 f + 24.720 g = 47.283 * 0.744
- - - - -
-1.517 b + 3.329 c + 5.869 d + -9.655 e + 15.436 f + 24.361 g = 38.620 * 1.000
maka :
- - - - -
-1.517 b + 3.004 c + 4.949 d + -7.760 e + 11.972 f + 18.383 g = 35.162
- - - - -
-1.517 b + 3.329 c + 5.869 d + -9.655 e + 15.436 f + 24.361 g = 38.620
--
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f + 5.978 g = 3.458 - pers.15
Persamaan 10 dan 11
:
- - - - -
-1.517 b + 3.329 c + 5.869 d + -9.655 e + 15.436 f + 24.361 g = 38.620 * 0.876
- - - - -
-1.329 b + 3.124 c + 5.779 d + -9.852 e + 16.190 f + 26.116 g = 35.982 * 1.000
maka :
- - - - -
-1.329 b + 2.917 c + 5.143 d + -8.460 e + 13.526 f + 21.346 g = 33.840
- - - - -
-1.329 b + 3.124 c + 5.779 d + -9.852 e + 16.190 f + 26.116 g = 35.982
--
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f + 4.770 g = 2.142 - pers.16
Persamaan 11 dan 12
:
- - - - -
-1.329 b + 3.124 c + 5.779 d + -9.852 e + 16.190 f + 26.116 g = 35.982 * 0.977
- - - - - -
-1.299 b + 3.202 c + 6.140 d + 10.760 e + 18.074 f + 29.677 g = 36.675 * 1.000
maka :
- - - - -
-1.299 b + 3.052 c + 5.646 d + -9.625 e + 15.818 f + 25.516 g = 35.154
- - - - - -
-1.299 b + 3.202 c + 6.140 d + 10.760 e + 18.074 f + 29.677 g = 36.675
--
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f + 4.161 g = 1.520 - pers.17
Persamaan 12 dan
13:
- - - - - -
-1.299 b + 3.202 c + 6.140 d + 10.760 e + 18.074 f + 29.677 g = 36.675 * 1.054
- - - - - -
-1.369 b + 3.499 c + 6.896 d + 12.352 e + 21.119 f + 35.188 g = 39.865 * 1.000
maka :
- - - - - -
-1.369 b + 3.376 c + 6.473 d + 11.343 e + 19.054 f + 31.285 g = 38.662
- - - - - -
-1.369 b + 3.499 c + 6.896 d + 12.352 e + 21.119 f + 35.188 g = 39.865
--
0.123 c + 0.423 d + 1.008 e + 2.065 f + 3.903 g = 1.203 - pers.18
Persamaan 14 dan
15 :
0.775 c + 1.860 d + 3.450 e + 5.861 f + 9.582 g = 8.313 * 0.420
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f + 5.978 g = 3.458 * 1.000
Maka :
0.326 c + 0.781 d + 1.449 e + 2.461 f + 4.024 g = 3.492
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f + 5.978 g = 3.458 -
- - --
0.140 d 0.447 e + -1.002 f + -1.954 g = 0.033 - pers.19
Persamaan 15 dan
16 :
0.326 c + 0.921 d + 1.895 e + 3.464 f + 5.978 g = 3.458 * 0.634
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f + 4.770 g = 2.142 * 1.000
Maka :
0.206 c + 0.584 d + 1.202 e + 2.196 f + 3.790 g = 2.192
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f + 4.770 g = 2.142 -
- - --
0.052 d 0.190 e + -0.469 f + -0.981 g = 0.051 - pers.20
Persamaan 16 dan
17 :
0.206 c + 0.636 d + 1.392 e + 2.665 f + 4.770 g = 2.142 * 0.730
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f + 4.161 g = 1.520 * 1.000
Maka :
0.151 c + 0.464 d + 1.016 e + 1.945 f + 3.481 g = 1.563
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f + 4.161 g = 1.520 -
- - --
0.030 d 0.120 e + -0.312 f + -0.680 g = 0.043 - pers.21
Persamaan 17 dan
18:
0.151 c + 0.494 d + 1.135 e + 2.256 f + 4.161 g = 1.520 * 0.816
0.123 c + 0.423 d + 1.008 e + 2.065 f + 3.903 g = 1.203 * 1.000
Maka :
0.123 c + 0.403 d + 0.926 e + 1.841 f + 3.395 g = 1.240
0.123 c + 0.423 d + 1.008 e + 2.065 f + 3.903 g = 1.203 -
- - --
0.020 d 0.082 e + -0.224 f + -0.508 g = 0.037 - pers.22
Persamaan 19 dan
20:
-0.140 d -0.447 e + -1.002 f + -1.954 g = 0.033 * 0.371
-0.052 d -0.190 e + -0.469 f + -0.981 g = 0.051 * 1.000
Maka :
-0.052 d -0.166 e + -0.372 f + -0.726 g = 0.012
-0.052 d -0.190 e + -0.469 f + -0.981 g = 0.051 -
--
0.024 e + 0.097 f + 0.255 g = -0.038 - pers.23
Persamaan 20 dan
21:
-0.052 d -0.190 e + -0.469 f + -0.981 g = 0.051 * 0.587
-0.030 d -0.120 e + -0.312 f + -0.680 g = 0.043 * 1.000
Maka :
-0.030 d -0.112 e + -0.275 f + -0.576 g = 0.030
-0.030 d -0.120 e + -0.312 f + -0.680 g = 0.043 -
--
0.008 e + 0.036 f + 0.104 g = -0.013 - pers.24
Persamaan 21 dan
22:
-0.030 d -0.120 e + -0.312 f + -0.680 g = 0.043 * 0.650
-0.020 d -0.082 e + -0.224 f + -0.508 g = 0.037 * 1.000
Maka :
-0.020 d -0.078 e + -0.203 f + -0.442 g = 0.028
-0.020 d -0.082 e + -0.224 f + -0.508 g = 0.037 -
--
0.005 e + 0.022 f + 0.066 g = -0.010 - pers.25
Dari Persamaan 13 :
- - - -
1.369 b + -3.499 c + -6.896 d + 12.352 e + 21.119 f + 35.188 g = -39.865
-
1.369 b + 10.895 + -203.173 + 385.148 + -347.009 + 120.519 = -39.865
-1.369 b = -6.244
b = 4.561
Dari Persamaan 1 :
17.00 188.32
0 a + 13.600 b + 14.960 c + 18.496 d + 24.385 e + 33.478 f + 47.260 g = 0
17.00 188.32
0 a + 62.028 + -46.583 + 544.948 + -760.362 + 550.078 + -161.867 = 0
17.000 a = 0.078
a = 0.005
Q Kesalahan
h Q data
model Relatif (%)
0.00 0.00 0.00 ~
0.10 0.40 0.40 0.01
0.20 0.95 0.93 0.03
0.30 1.64 1.63 0.01
0.40 2.48 2.56 0.03
0.50 3.72 3.71 0.00
0.60 5.21 5.10 0.02
0.70 6.64 6.72 0.01
0.80 8.57 8.57 0.00
0.90 10.65 10.64 0.00
1.00 12.93 12.93 0.00
1.10 15.40 15.46 0.00
1.20 18.27 18.21 0.00
1.30 21.19 21.18 0.00
1.40 24.31 24.35 0.00
1.50 27.68 27.67 0.00
1.60 31.05 31.05 0.00
Kesalahan Relatif
Maksimum 0.03
Sumber: Hasil Perhitungan, 2016
Tabel 6.37 Rekapitulasi Besarnya Nilai Kesalahan Relatif Maksimum
Metode KR (%)
Regresi Debit 1 Debit 2
1. Linear 578.40 699.44
2. Eksponensial 126.38 160.40
3. Berpangkat 30.24 30.15
4. Logaritmik 1814.92 2200.77
5. Polinomial
* Orde 2 17.35 13.32
* Orde 3 14.60 10.09
* Orde 4 6.48 4.38
* Orde 5 11.10 6.05
* Orde 6 0.10 0.03
6.3 Kesimpulan
Metode yang paling tepat digunakan untuk menghitung besarnya debit rancangan
dari data debit yang ada adalah dengan menggunakan Metode Regresi
Polinomial Orde 6, karena memiliki nilai kesalahan relatif maksimum terkecil
dibandingan model regresi yang lain untuk kedua debit.