Bab-5 Teori Probabilitas
Bab-5 Teori Probabilitas
Bab-5
Teori Probabilitas
Chapter Goals
Materi Bahasan :
1. 3 Pendekatan untuk menilai probabilitas
2. Aturan Umum Probabilitas
3. “Bayes 'Theorem” untuk probabilitas bersyarat
4. Distribusi Probabilitas Diskrit dan Kontinu
5. Nilai Ekspektasi dan Deviasi Standar untuk
sebuah distribusi probabilitas diskrit
Important Terms, Istilah Penting
Contingency Tables
Ace Not-Ace Total
Black 2 24 26
Red 2 24 26
Sample
Total 4 48 52 Space
Tree Diagrams 2
Sample 24
Space
Full Deck
of 52 Cards Ace
2
24
Elementary Events
Seorang konsultan mobil mencatat jenis bahan bakar
(fuel type ) dan jenis kendaraan (vehicle type) untuk
sampel kendaraan.
2 Fuel types : Gasoline, Diesel
3 Vehicle types : Truck, Car, SUV
Rules for
Possible Values
and Sum
0 ≤ P(ei) ≤ 1 k
where:
k = Number of elementary events in
the sample space
ei = ith elementary event
1. Addition Rule for Elementary
Events, Aturan Penambahan Elementary Events
E
Complement Rule:
P(E ) 1 P(E) E
E1 + E2 = E1 E2
= P(E1) + P(E2)
Conditional Probability
Probabilitas Bersyarat (Conditional
probability) for any two events E1 , E2:
P(E1 and E 2 )
P(E1 | E 2 )
P(E 2 )
where P(E2 ) 0
Conditional Probability Example
CD No CD Total
AC .2 .5 .7
No AC .2 .1 .3
Total .4 .6 1.0
Discrete Continuous
Random Variable Random Variable