Data Curah Hujan Rata-rata Harian (januari-Juni) (mm/hari)

januari Februari Maret April Mei Juni

No Tahun
I II I II I II I II I II I II
1 2010 97 87 120 68 10 87 75 29 0 9 1 0
2 2011 124 73 85 63 80 94 110 13 24 0 14 3
3 2012 89 110 81 84 112 15 93 0 2 0 0 0
4 2013 130 68 76 89 97 112 121 7 14 6 3 1
5 2014 112 121 67 121 77 92 93 24 46 0 0 0
6 2015 71 86 83 96 79 68 100 3 45 1 11 2
7 2016 84 83 121 116 121 77 72 145 0 3 45 4
8 2017 130 114 116 68 111 121 75 10 19 0 0 1
9 2018 92 123 90 115 69 89 81 151 111 8 2 0
10 2019 78 131 98 110 81 73 79 42 0 0 74 0

Data Curah Hujan Rata-rata Harian (Juli-Desember) (mm/hari)

Juli Agustus September Oktober November Desember
No Tahun
I II I II I II I II I II I II
1 2010 1 2 0 2 11 54 28 39 5 145 117 96
2 2011 0 0 0 0 0 3 12 23 20 68 171 323
3 2012 0 6 0 0 4 0 2 0 1 59 153 36
4 2013 3 2 0 0 10 0 20 11 19 116 150 44
5 2014 13 2 5 0 0 3 1 45 41 42 72 29
6 2015 2 0 0 0 0 35 11 78 3 121 143 109
7 2016 66 29 1 0 3 137 14 363 137 85 74 189
8 2017 2 0 2 2 0 0 18 73 102 65 196 13
9 2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 134 51 312 64 93 3
10 2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 121 36 69 141 71

Uraian jan feb mar apr mei juni juli agst sept okto nov des
ea 22.1 24.9 26.1 28.1 31.7 33.6 32.1 37.8 40.1 42.2 44.9 41.6
w 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71
Ra 8.6 13.1 13.1 12.1 16.1 17 12.1 15.7 13.9 12.1 9.5 8.1
f(t) 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3
C 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01
 Data curah hujan dengan periode 10 tahun kemudian dihitung nilai peluang dengan kemungkinan terpenuhi sebesar 80 %. Nilai probabilitas (P) dihitung
menggunakan metode dari Weibull. Berikut cara perhitungan nilai probabilitas.

m
P = x 100 %
n+1

Dimana :
P = Probabilitas
m = Ranking curah hujan yang dipilih
n = Banyak data pengamatan

1
Peluang 1 = x 100 = 9.09 %
10 + 1

2
Peluang 2 = x 100 = 18.18 %
10 + 1

3
Peluang 3 = x 100 = 27.27 %
10 + 1

4
Peluang 4 = x 100 = 36.36 %
10 + 1

5
Peluang 5 = x 100 = 45.45 %
10 + 1

6
Peluang 6 = x 100 = 54.55 %
10 + 1

7
Peluang 7 = x 100 = 63.64 %
10 + 1

8
Peluang 8 = x 100 = 72.73 %
10 + 1

Probabilitas = 80.00 %

9
Peluang 9 = x 100 = 81.82 %
10 + 1

10
Peluang 10 = x 100 = 90.91 %
10 + 1

Probabilitas nilai kemungkinan 80% didapatkan berdasarkan perhitungan interpolasi. Hasil rekapitulasi perhitungan probabilitas curah hujan dapat dilihat
pada Tabel berikut

Data Curah Hujan Rata-rata Harian (januari-Juni) (mm/hari)

januari Februari Maret April Mei Juni
Ke- X
I II I II I II I II I II I II
1 9.09 97 87 120 68 10 87 75 29 0 9 1 0
2 18.18 124 73 85 63 80 94 110 13 24 0 14 3
3 27.27 89 110 81 84 112 15 93 0 2 0 0 0
4 36.36 130 68 76 89 97 112 121 7 14 6 3 1
5 45.45 112 121 67 121 77 92 93 24 46 0 0 0
6 54.55 71 86 83 96 79 68 100 3 45 1 11 2
7 63.64 84 83 121 116 121 77 72 145 0 3 45 4
8 72.73 130 114 116 68 111 121 75 10 19 0 0 1
P 80.00 99.6 67.8 77.4 93.8 77.0 75.2 72.6 121.8 45.2 3.6 17.8 3.8
9 81.82 92 123 90 115 69 89 81 151 111 8 2 0
10 90.91 78 131 98 110 81 73 79 42 0 0 74 0
 Data Curah Hujan Rata-rata Harian (Juli-Desember) (mm/hari)
Juli Agustus September Oktober November Desember
Ke- X
I II I II I II I II I II I II
1 9.09 1 2 0 2 11 54 28 39 5 145 117 96
2 18.18 0 0 0 0 0 3 12 23 20 68 171 323
3 27.27 0 6 0 0 4 0 2 0 1 59 153 36
4 36.36 3 2 0 0 10 0 20 11 19 116 150 44
5 45.45 13 2 5 0 0 3 1 45 41 42 72 29
6 54.55 2 0 0 0 0 35 11 78 3 121 143 109
7 63.64 66 29 1 0 3 137 14 363 137 85 74 189
8 72.73 2 0 2 2 0 0 18 73 102 65 196 13
P 80.00 55.4 10.6 2.6 4.2 5.2 8.6 18.4 71.4 117.8 91.2 144.4 125.0
9 81.82 0 0 0 0 0 0 134 51 312 64 93 3
10 90.91 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 121 36 69 141 71

Nilai probabilitas curah hujan yang digunakan yaitu dengan tingkat keandalan 80%, nilai R (80) didapatkan dari interpolasi analisis probabilitas diatas.
Berikut merupakan contoh perhitungan nillai R (80) dengan interpolasi :

X - X1
Y = Y1 + x Y2 - Y1
X2 - X1

Ket :
Y = Interpolasi
X = Nilai Probabilitas
X1 = Sebelum nilai probabilitas
X2 = Sesudah nilai probabilitas
Y1 = Data bulanan sebelum data probabilitas
Y2 = Data bulanan sesudah data probabilitas

n
R80 =
5+1

Dimana :
R80 = Curah hujan kemungkinan sebesar 80%
n = Nilai Interpolasi (Y)

Jan-01 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 130 mm/hari
Y2 = 92 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 130 + x 92 - 130 = 99.6 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

99.6
R80 = = 20.9
5+1

Jan-02 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 67 mm/hari
Y2 = 68 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 67 + x 68 - 67 = 67.8 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

67.8
R80 = = 14.6
5+1

Feb-01 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
 Y1 = 83 mm/hari
Y2 = 76 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 83 + x 76 - 83 = 77.4 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

77.4
R80 = = 16.5
5+1

Feb-02 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 85 mm/hari
Y2 = 96 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 85 + x 96 - 85 = 93.8 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

93.8
R80 = = 19.8
5+1

Mar-01 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

 X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 77 mm/hari
Y2 = 77 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 77 + x 77 - 77 = 77.0 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

77.0
R80 = = 16.4
5+1

Mar-02 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 68 mm/hari
Y2 = 77 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 68 + x 77 - 68 = 75.2 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

75.2
R80 = = 16.0
5+1

Apr-01 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 75 mm/hari
Y2 = 72 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 75 + x 72 - 75 = 72.6 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

72.6
R80 = = 15.5
5+1

Apr-02 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 29 mm/hari
Y2 = 145 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 29 + x 145 - 29 = 121.8 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

121.8
R80 = = 25.4
5+1

May-01 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 46 mm/hari
Y2 = 45 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 46 + x 45 - 46 = 45.2 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

45.2
R80 = = 10.0
5+1
May-02 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan
X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 6 mm/hari
Y2 = 3 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 6 + x 3 - 6 = 3.6 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

3.6
R80 = = 1.7
5+1

Jun-01 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 45 mm/hari
Y2 = 11 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 45 + x 11 - 45 = 17.8 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

17.8
R80 = = 4.6
5+1

Jun-02 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 3 mm/hari
Y2 = 4 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 3 + x 4 - 3 = 3.8 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

3.8
R80 = = 1.8
5+1

Jul-01 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 13 mm/hari
Y2 = 66 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 13 + x 66 - 13 = 55.4 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

55.4
R80 = = 12.1
5+1

Jul-02 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 29 mm/hari
Y2 = 6 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 29 + x 6 - 29 = 10.6 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73
 10.6
R80 = = 3.1
5+1

Aug-01 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 5 mm/hari
Y2 = 2 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 5 + x 2 - 5 = 2.6 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

2.6
R80 = = 1.5
5+1

Aug-02 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 5 mm/hari
Y2 = 4 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 5 + x 4 - 5 = 4.2 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

4.2
R80 = = 1.8
5+1

Sep-01 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 10 mm/hari
Y2 = 4 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 10 + x 4 - 10 = 5.2 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

5.2
R80 = = 2.0
5+1

Sep-02 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 35 mm/hari
Y2 = 2 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 35 + x 2 - 35 = 8.6 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

8.6
R80 = = 2.7
5+1

Oct-01 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 20 mm/hari
Y2 = 18 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 20 + x 18 - 20 = 18.4 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

18.4
R80 = = 4.7
5+1
Oct-02 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan
X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 45 mm/hari
Y2 = 78 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 45 + x 78 - 45 = 71.4 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

71.4
R80 = = 15.3
5+1

Nov-01 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 41 mm/hari
Y2 = 137 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 41 + x 137 - 41 = 117.8 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

117.8
R80 = = 24.6
5+1

Nov-02 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 116 mm/hari
Y2 = 85 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 116 + x 85 - 116 = 91.2 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

91.2
R80 = = 19.2
5+1

Dec-01 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 150 mm/hari
Y2 = 143 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 150 + x 143 - 150 = 144.4 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

144.4
R80 = = 29.9
5+1

Dec-02 : X1 = 72.73 %, curah hujan

X2 = 81.82 %, curah hujan
Y1 = 189 mm/hari
Y2 = 109 mm/hari
X = 80.00 %, curah hujan

80.00 - 72.73
Y = 189 + x 109 - 189 = 125.0 mm/hari
81.82 - 72.73

125.0
R80 = = 26.0
5+1

Perhitungan curah hujan berdasarkan kemungkinan 80% pada bulan Januari hingga Desember dihitung seperti diatas. Setelah itu dilanjutkan perhitungan
curah hujan efektif (Re). Perhitungan curah hujan efektif untuk tanaman padi. Berikut ini cara perhitungan Re untuk padi dan palawija.
Untuk Padi :
Re = 0.7 x R80

Ket :
Re = Curah hujan efektif (mm/hari)
R80 = Curah hujan kemungkinan sebesar 80%
0.7 = Koefisien tanaman padi sebesar 70%

Jan-01 Re = 0.7 x 20.9 = 14.64 mm/hari

Jan-02 Re = 0.7 x 14.6 = 10.19 mm/hari

Feb-01 Re = 0.7 x 16.5 = 11.54 mm/hari

Feb-02 Re = 0.7 x 19.8 = 13.83 mm/hari

Mar-01 Re = 0.7 x 10.0 = 7.03 mm/hari

Mar-02 Re = 0.7 x 16.0 = 11.23 mm/hari

Apr-01 Re = 0.7 x 15.5 = 10.86 mm/hari

Apr-02 Re = 0.7 x 25.4 = 17.75 mm/hari

May-01 Re = 0.7 x 10.0 = 7.03 mm/hari

May-02 Re = 0.7 x 1.7 = 1.204 mm/hari

Jun-01 Re = 0.7 x 4.6 = 3.19 mm/hari

Jun-02 Re = 0.7 x 1.8 = 1.23 mm/hari

Jul-01 Re = 0.7 x 12.1 = 8.46 mm/hari

Jul-02 Re = 0.7 x 3.1 = 2.184 mm/hari

Aug-01 Re = 0.7 x 1.5 = 1.06 mm/hari

Aug-02 Re = 0.7 x 1.8 = 1.29 mm/hari

Sep-01 Re = 0.7 x 2.0 = 1.43 mm/hari

Sep-02 Re = 0.7 x 2.7 = 1.90 mm/hari

Oct-01 Re = 0.7 x 4.7 = 3.28 mm/hari

Oct-02 Re = 0.7 x 15.3 = 10.70 mm/hari

Nov-01 Re = 0.7 x 24.6 = 17.19 mm/hari

Nov-02 Re = 0.7 x 19.2 = 13.47 mm/hari

Dec-01 Re = 0.7 x 29.9 = 20.92 mm/hari

Dec-02 Re = 0.7 x 26.0 = 18.2 mm/hari