15/11/2022

Research Method & Statistics

Lecturer Course
Tuesday, 15th November 2022
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Proses Penelitian

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Proses Penelitian

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Variables

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Analisa Regressi Linear

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Uji Model

• Uji F
• Uji Durbin – Watson

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Uji F
• Uji F dikenal dengan uji serentak atau uji
anova, → melihat bagaimana pengaruh
variabel-variabel independen secara
keseluruhan terhadap variabel dependennya,
→ model regresi yang kita buat baik
(signifikan) atau tidak baik (non signifikan).
• Hasil uji F dari hasil analisis dengan SPSS
dapat dilihat pada tabel anova kolom
signifikasi atau sig.
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Uji Durbin Watson

• Uji Durbin Watson atau uji autokorelasi adalah uji
yang dilakukan untuk mengetahui terjadinya
autokorelasi pada nilai residual (prediction errors)
dari sebuah analisis regresi.
• Yang dimaksud dengan autokorelasi adalah
hubungan antara nilai-nilai yang dipisahkan satu
sama lain dengan jeda waktu tertentu.
• Hasil uji autokorelasi dari hasil analisis dengan
SPSS dapat dilihat pada tabel model summary
kolom Durbin-Watson.
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Pearson's chi-squared test

• Pearson's chi-squared test (χ2) is a statistical test applied to
sets of categorical data to evaluate how likely it is that any
observed difference between the sets arose by chance. It is
suitable for unpaired data from large samples
– A test of goodness of fit establishes whether or not an observed
frequency distribution differs from a theoretical distribution.
– A test of independence assesses whether paired observations on two
variables, expressed in a contingency table, are independent of each
other (e.g. polling responses from people of different nationalities to
see if one's nationality is related to the response).

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Pearson's chi-squared test

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Pearson's chi-squared test

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Pearson's chi-squared test

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Samples

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Samples Properties

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Samples Properties

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Samples Properties

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Samples Properties

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Probability

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Probability

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Random Variables

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Random Variables

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Random Variables

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Random Variables

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Random Variables

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Random Variables

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Random Variables

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Random Variables

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Random Variables

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Normal Probability Density Function

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Normal Probability Density Function

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Normal Probability Density Function

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Normal Probability Density Function

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Joint Probability Density Function

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Joint Probability Density Function

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Joint Probability Density Function

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Joint Probability Density Function

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Joint Probability Density Function

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Joint Probability Density Function

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Joint Probability Density Function

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Joint Probability Density Function

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Joint Probability Density Function

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Conditional Distributions
• investigating how one of the random variables, say
Y, behaves given that another random variable,
say X, has already behaved in a certain way
• idea of conditional probability that we learned
previously to the idea of finding a conditional
probability distribution of a random variable Y
given another random variable X.

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Conditional Distributions

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Conditional Distributions

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Conditional Distributions

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Conditional Distributions

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Conditional Distributions

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Conditional Distributions

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Conditional Distributions

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Conditional Distributions

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Conditional Distributions

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Conditional Distributions

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Conditional Distributions

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Conditional Distributions

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Distributions of Two Continuous

Random Variables
• To learn the formal definition of a joint probability density
function of two continuous random variables.
• To learn how to use a joint probability density function to find
the probability of a specific event.
• To learn how to find a marginal probability density function of
a continuous random variable X from the joint probability
density function of X and Y.
• To learn how to find the means and variances of the
continuous random variables X and Y using their joint
probability density function.
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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Two Continuous Random Variables

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Conditional Distributions

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Reliability in engineering design

How safe of the structure or the system ?

How to judge the probability of failure ?

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Uncertainties in nature

▪ Internal
▪ Material properties
▪ Modulus Young
▪ Dimension
▪ etc.
▪ External
▪ Excitation
▪ Earthquake
▪ Wind
▪ etc.

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Stochastic analysis
▪ Objective : to determine the
responses variations due to internal
and external excitation.
▪ Example of Monte Carlo (104 samples)
▪ Beam under shock excitation
Ai Ki Si ▪ Incertitude of Young modulus (Normal
input structure response distribution)

Variation of Umax
▪ Methods :
▪ Monte Carlo
▪ Perturbation method
▪ Chaos polynomial
▪ etc.

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Reliability

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Reliability

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Reliability

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Reliability

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Reliability

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Reliability

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Reliability

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Reliability

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Reliability

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Reliability analysis
▪ Objective : to determine the G ( r, s ) = 0
probability of failure

Solicitation (s)
Si  Ri
Failure domain
Ai Ki
Df
input structure solicitations  resistance

G ( r,s )  0
Safety domain
Safety domain
Ds
Failure domain G ( r,s )  0
Resistance (r)
Pf = Pr ( G ( r , s )  0 )
▪ Methods :
▪ Monte Carlo
Pf = Pr ( G ( X )  0 ) =  f X ( x ) dx ▪ First/Second Order Reliability
Method (FORM/SORM)
G ( X ) 0

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Reliability analysis

R–S<0

Pf = Pr ( G ( X )  0 ) =  f X ( x ) dx
G ( X ) 0

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