Kuis Ekonometrik

Nama

: Suci Safitriani

NIM

: 09.6147

Kelas

: 4 SE3

Soal Quiz 3
Data yang digunakan adalah data yang berasal dari 609 perusahaan yang
dengan series waktu 1998-2008. Variabel-variabel yang digunakan terdiri atas nilai
produksi, tenaga kerja, capital dan bahan baku. Dan dalam pengolahannya, variabelvariabel tersebut di logaritma naturalkan. Berikut ini adalah hasil pengolahan dengan
menggunakan eviews :

1. Uji Unit Root

Uji ini digunakan untuk melihat kestasioner data yang digunakan.

Hipotesis :

Output :

Group unit root test: Summary

Series: LNY_30_1
Date: 11/22/12 Time: 14:50
Sample: 1998 2008
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
CrossMethod
Statistic Prob.** sections
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)

Obs

Levin, Lin & Chu t*

-1504.01

0.0000

2422

23800

Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

Im, Pesaran and Shin Wstat
-70.0799 0.0000
2422
ADF - Fisher Chi-square
10124.2 0.0000
2422
PP - Fisher Chi-square
11619.5 0.0000
2422

23800
23800
24220

** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic

Chi
-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic
normality.

Keputusan : Tolak Ho, karena 0,00<0,05

Kesimpulan : Dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95% dapat disimpulkan bahwa data

sudah bersifat stasioner.
Berdasarkan output di atas dapat dilihat bahwa nilai probabilitas = 0,000 sehingga

dapat dikatakan bahwa data sudah stasioner sehingga bisa dilanjutkan ke proses
pengolahan selanjutnya.

2. Estimasi Model
Model Pooled
Model Common effect merupakan teknik yang paling sederhana untuk
mengestimasi data panel, yaitu dengan mengkombinasikan data time series dan cross
section dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Dalam pendekatan ini, tidak
memperhatikan dimensi individu maupun waktu. Sehingga diasumsikan intersep dan
slope antar individu tetap sepanjang waktu dan individu.

Persamaan Umum :

Output :

Dependent Variable: LNY_30?

Method: Pooled Least Squares
Date: 11/22/12 Time: 15:03
Sample: 1998 2008

Included observations: 11
Cross-sections included: 609
Total pool (balanced) observations: 6699
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

3.923850

0.179383

21.87414

0.0000

LNL_30?

0.336357

0.043808

7.677954

0.0000

LNK_30?

0.035424

0.012361

2.865730

0.0042

LNM_30?

0.616664

0.004774

129.1794

0.0000

LNK_30?*LNL_30? 0.004378

0.002972

1.473101

0.1408

R-squared

0.869777

Mean dependent var

14.55332

Adjusted R-squared

0.869699

S.D. dependent var

1.645467

S.E. of regression

0.593968

Akaike info criterion

1.796763

Sum squared resid

2361.629

Schwarz criterion

1.801846

Log likelihood

-6013.259

F-statistic

11177.52

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.798519

Durbin-Watson stat

0.531390

Model Fixed (FEM)

Pendekatan Model Fixed Effect mengasumsikan bahwa perbedaan antar individu
dapat diakomodasi melalui perbedaan intersepnya. Model ini didasarkan oleh adanya
perbedaan intersep antara individu, namun intersepnya sama antar waktu (time
invariant). Disamping itu, model ini juga mengasumsikan bahwa koefisien regresi
(slope) tetap antar individu dan antar waktu.

Persamaan Umum :

Output :

Dependent Variable: LNY_30?

Method: Pooled Least Squares
Date: 11/22/12 Time: 15:03

Sample: 1998 2008

Included observations: 11
Cross-sections included: 609
Total pool (balanced) observations: 6699
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
LNL_30?
LNK_30?
LNM_30?
LNK_30?*LNL_30?

5.700524
0.248196
-0.011129
0.575883
-0.000710

0.155975
0.036903
0.009460
0.006194
0.002324

36.54767
6.725620
-1.176420
92.96837
-0.305684

0.0000
0.0000
0.2395
0.0000
0.7599

Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.959743
0.955695
0.346352
730.0735
-2081.074
237.0787
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

14.55332
1.645467
0.804321
1.427452
1.019517
1.437555

catatan : Fixed Effect Terlampir

Model Random (REM)

Estimasi data panel dengan model Fixed Effect melalui variabel

dummy

menunjukkan ketidakpastian model yang digunakan. Untuk mengatasi masalah ini

kita bisa menggunakan variabel residual yang dikenal dengan metode Random Effect.
Di dalam model ini kita akan memilih estimasi data panel dimana residual mungkin
saling berhubungan antar waktu dan antar individu. Sehingga model Random Effect
mengasumsikan bahwa setiap individu mempunyai perbedaan intersep yang
merupakan variabel random atau stokastik.

Persamaan Umum :

Output :

Date: 11/22/12 Time: 15:08

Sample: 1998 2008

Included observations: 11
Cross-sections included: 609
Total pool (balanced) observations: 6699
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

5.040776

0.146339

34.44592

0.0000

LNL_30?

0.316948

0.035106

9.028410

0.0000

LNK_30?

-0.012714

0.009245 -1.375315

0.1691

LNM_30?

0.597252

0.005496

108.6784

0.0000

LNK_30?*LNL_30? 0.001472

0.002265

0.649808

0.5158

Effects Specification
S.D.
Cross-section random
Idiosyncratic random

0.408319
0.346352

Rho
0.5816
0.4184

Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.713664
0.713493
0.357459
4171.031
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat

3.605993
0.667818
855.3384
1.236149

Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid

0.855214
2625.732

Mean dependent var

Durbin-Watson stat

14.55332
0.402679

Catatan : Random Effect Terlampir

3. Pemilihan Model Terbaik

Uji Chow
Uji Signifikansi Fixed effect dilakukan dengan uji F statistik. Uji F ini digunakan
untuk mengetahui apakah teknik regresi data panel dengan Fixed Effect lebih baik

dari model regresi data panel tanpa variabel dummy (Common Effect) dengan melihat
Residual Sum of Squares (RSS).

Hipotesis :

Ho : Pooled Model lebih baik

H1 : Fixed Effect Model Leboh baik

Atau

Ho :

H1 : minimal ada satu intersept yang berbeda.

Output :

Redundant Fixed Effects Tests

Pool: PANEL30
Test cross-section fixed effects
Effects Test

Statistic

Cross-section F

d.f.

Prob.

22.369882 (608,6086)

0.0000

7864.37000
Cross-section Chi-square

608

Std. Error

t-Statistic

0.0000

Cross-section fixed effects test equation:

Dependent Variable: LNY_30?
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 11/22/12 Time: 15:07
Sample: 1998 2008
Included observations: 11
Cross-sections included: 609
Total pool (balanced) observations: 6699
Variable

Coefficient

Prob.

3.923850

0.179383

21.87414

0.0000

LNL_30?

0.336357

0.043808

7.677954

0.0000

LNK_30?

0.035424

0.012361

2.865730

0.0042

LNM_30?

0.616664

0.004774

129.1794

0.0000

LNK_30?*LNL_30? 0.004378

0.002972

1.473101

0.1408

R-squared

0.869777

Mean dependent var

14.55332

Adjusted R-squared

0.869699

S.D. dependent var

1.645467

S.E. of regression

0.593968

Akaike info criterion

1.796763

Sum squared resid

2361.629

Schwarz criterion

1.801846

Log likelihood

-6013.259

F-statistic

11177.52

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.798519

Durbin-Watson stat

0.531390

Statistik Uji : F =
Dimana : RSS1 = Sum Square Resid pooled model, RSS2 = Sum Square Resid
FEM, N=banyaknya jumlah cross section, k = banyaknya variabel.
Tolak Ho jika F hitung > F tabel atau Prob <

Keputusan : Karena Prob < (=0,05) 0,00 < 0,05 maka Tolak Ho

Kesimpulan : Dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95% dapat disimpulkan bahwa Fixed

Effect Model lebih baik digunakan untuk data dibanding Pooled Model.

Berdasarkan hasil output eviews yang dihasilkan dapat dilihat bahwa probabilitas
uji F nya 0,00 dan lebih kecil dari alpha = 5% sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa
model fixed effect lebih baik digunakan daripada model pooled.

Uji Hausman (Fixed vs Random)

Untuk melihat apakah model mengikuti random effect atau fixed

effect.

Hipotesis :

Ho : Random effect (individual effect uncorelated) lebih baik

H1 : Fixed effect lebih baik
Atau
Ho : Cov (
H1 : Cov (

Output :

Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test

Pool: PANEL30
Test cross-section random effects
Chi-Sq.
Test Summary

Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f.

Cross-section random

440.226889

Prob.

0.0000

Random Var(Diff.)

Prob.

Cross-section random effects test comparisons:

Variable

Fixed

LNL_30?

0.248196

LNK_30?
LNM_30?

0.316948

0.000129

0.0000

-0.011129 -0.012714

0.000004

0.4294

0.575883

0.597252

0.000008

0.0000

-0.000710

0.001472

0.000000

0.0000

(LNK_30?*LNL_30
?)

Cross-section random effects test equation:

Dependent Variable: LNY_30?
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 11/22/12 Time: 15:09
Sample: 1998 2008
Included observations: 11
Cross-sections included: 609
Total pool (balanced) observations: 6699
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

5.700524

0.155975

36.54767

0.0000

LNL_30?

0.248196

0.036903

6.725620

0.0000

LNK_30?

-0.011129

0.009460 -1.176420

0.2395

LNM_30?

0.575883

0.006194

92.96837

0.0000

0.002324 -0.305684

0.7599

LNK_30?*LNL_30? -0.000710

Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared

0.959743

Mean dependent var

14.55332

Adjusted R-squared

0.955695

S.D. dependent var

1.645467

S.E. of regression

0.346352

Akaike info criterion

0.804321

Sum squared resid

730.0735

Schwarz criterion

1.427452

Log likelihood

-2081.074

F-statistic

237.0787

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.019517

Durbin-Watson stat

1.437555

Statistik Uji :
Dimana : b= koefisien random effect; =koefisien fixed effect

(k=jumlah koef slope) atau p-value <

Tolak Ho jika

Keputusan : Karena Prob< (=0,05) 0,00<0,05 maka Tolak Ho

Kesimpulan : Dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95% dapat disimpulkan bahwa Fixed

Effect Model lebih baik digunakan untuk data dibanding Random Effect Model.
Berdasarkan hasil output dapat dilihat bahwa probabilitas F statistiknya 0,00 atau

kurang dari alpha 5% sehingga diperoleh model terbaik yang digunakan untuk data
ini adalah FIXED EFFECT MODEL (FEM).

4. Pemilihan Estimator
Uji LM (Heteroskedastis vs Homoskedastis)

Hipotesis :
Ho :
H1 :

Output :

LM test for hetero versus

homo
chi-sqr(608) =
p-value =

3348.500
0.000000

Statistik Uji :
LM =
dimana T=jml observasi, n=jml individu;

=varian residual persamaan ke-i;

=varian residual persamaan system.

Keputusan Tolah Ho, jika LM test >

Keputusan : Tolak H karena Prob <

atau Prob <

0,0000 < 0,05

Kesimpulan : Dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95% dapat disimpullan bahwa struktur

varian covarian residual bersifat heteroskedastik lebih baik dibandingkan dengan
yang bersifat homoskedastik

5. Interpretasi Model Terbaik :

Jadi berdasarkan uji-uji yang telah dilakukan, diperoleh model estimasi terbaik adalah
Fixed Effect Model dangan Cross-Section Weight. Adapun outputnya dapat dilihat
pada tabel di bawah ini :

Dependent Variable: LNY_30?

Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section weights)
Date: 11/23/12 Time: 12:25
Sample: 1998 2008
Included observations: 11
Cross-sections included: 609
Total pool (balanced) observations: 6699
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
LNL_30?
LNK_30?
LNM_30?
LNK_30?*LNL_30?

4.983707
0.182928
-0.009014
0.641990
-0.000327

0.099668
0.022731
0.005790
0.004995
0.001459

50.00324
8.047643
-1.556819
128.5368
-0.224289

0.0000
0.0000
0.1196
0.0000
0.8225

Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.984378
0.982807
0.340977
626.6249
0.000000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat

22.41908
11.83751
707.5897
1.349710

Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid

0.958943
744.5808

Mean dependent var

Durbin-Watson stat

14.55332
1.438758

Fixed Effect : Terlampir

Berdasarkan output di atas probabilitas F nya 0,00 lebih kecil dari alpha 5%,
sehingga dapat disimpulkan secara simultan, variabel-variabel yaitu pertumbuhan
modal, pertumbuhan tenaga kerja dan pertumbuhan bahan baku berpengaruh
signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan nilai produksi.
Adjusted R-squarednya bernilai 0,98. Artinya, perubahan variabel pertumbuhan
nilai produksi dapat dijelaskan sebesar 98% oleh variabel independentnya yaitu
pertumbuhan modal, pertumbuhan tenaga kerja dan pertumbuhan bahan baku.
Sedangkan 2% dijelaskan oleh variabel lain. Nilai Durbin Watson mendekati 2 yaitu
1,349 sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa tidak terjadi autokorelasi.
Untuk tingkat signifikansi 95%, variabel pertumbuhan tenaga kerja dan
pertumbuhan bahan baku berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel pertumbuhan nilai
produksi. Sedangkan variabel pertumbuhan capital tidak berpengaruh secara
signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan nilai produksi.
Berdasarkan output juga dapat dilihat bahwa pertumbuhan tenaga kerja sebanyak
1% dapat menaikkan pertumbuhan nilai produksi sebesar 0,18%. Setiap kenaikan 1%
pada pertumbuhan capital dapat menyebabkan penurunan pertumbuhan nilai produksi
sebesar 0,009%. Dan kenaikan pertumbuhan bahan baku sebesar 1% dapat
menyebabkan kenaikan pertumbuhan nilai produksi sebesar 0.64%.

Lampiran :
Random Effect
_1--C
_2--C
_3--C
_4--C
_5--C
_6--C
_7--C
_8--C
_9--C
_10--C
_11--C
_12--C
_13--C
_14--C
_15--C
_16--C
_17--C
_18--C
_19--C
_20--C
_21--C
_22--C
_23--C
_24--C
_25--C
_26--C
_27--C
_28--C
_29--C
_30--C
_31--C
_32--C
_33--C
_34--C
_35--C
_36--C
_37--C
_38--C
_39--C
_40--C
_41--C
_42--C
_43--C
_44--C
_45--C
_46--C

-0.184164
0.056264
-0.244613
-0.120153
0.044157
-0.173715
0.743540
-0.167695
0.344795
-0.053677
0.324038
0.106637
0.710463
0.938371
0.078749
0.050713
0.905453
0.643211
0.356384
0.649270
1.171264
0.461360
0.447439
0.447330
0.330393
0.480367
0.532342
0.397759
0.071642
-0.116818
-0.087054
-0.102039
-0.248820
-0.120554
-0.110880
-0.115877
-0.157926
0.335928
-0.221769
0.190057
0.221738
-0.264027
0.223545
-0.363568
0.066870
-0.337466

_204--C
_205--C
_206--C
_207--C
_208--C
_209--C
_210--C
_211--C
_212--C
_213--C
_214--C
_215--C
_216--C
_217--C
_218--C
_219--C
_220--C
_221--C
_222--C
_223--C
_224--C
_225--C
_226--C
_227--C
_228--C
_229--C
_230--C
_231--C
_232--C
_233--C
_234--C
_235--C
_236--C
_237--C
_238--C
_239--C
_240--C
_241--C
_242--C
_243--C
_244--C
_245--C
_246--C
_247--C
_248--C
_249--C

1.557996
1.110788
-0.077363
-0.170898
-0.250871
-0.258666
0.068738
-0.125148
-0.310263
0.365909
0.127111
0.378453
-0.677130
-0.360533
-0.281347
-0.392143
-0.475579
-0.377696
-0.454246
-0.057038
-0.180709
-0.261408
-0.228611
-0.189643
-0.151347
-0.277730
-0.079951
-0.083907
-0.122808
-0.255302
-0.735563
-0.291777
-0.225223
-0.423486
0.070196
1.532391
-0.334930
-0.359718
-0.323838
-0.363008
0.172504
0.250925
-0.225298
0.052596
-0.137545
0.708346

_407--C
_408--C
_409--C
_410--C
_411--C
_412--C
_413--C
_414--C
_415--C
_416--C
_417--C
_418--C
_419--C
_420--C
_421--C
_422--C
_423--C
_424--C
_425--C
_426--C
_427--C
_428--C
_429--C
_430--C
_431--C
_432--C
_433--C
_434--C
_435--C
_436--C
_437--C
_438--C
_439--C
_440--C
_441--C
_442--C
_443--C
_444--C
_445--C
_446--C
_447--C
_448--C
_449--C
_450--C
_451--C
_452--C

0.050854
0.312085
0.203026
-0.161983
0.157799
-0.522037
-0.013894
-0.489142
-0.021984
-0.179110
0.644385
-0.323347
0.228211
-0.294373
0.557884
0.107561
-0.361189
0.113011
-0.621699
-0.480737
-0.393616
-0.457961
-0.289650
1.067360
0.241062
-0.090227
0.109453
-0.067586
2.269500
0.513683
0.418408
0.808294
-0.025717
0.049210
0.027113
1.054636
0.491314
0.869275
-0.129330
0.057795
-0.112936
0.115493
-0.098917
-0.726489
0.589618
-0.007466

_47--C
_48--C
_49--C
_50--C
_51--C
_52--C
_53--C
_54--C
_55--C
_56--C
_57--C
_58--C
_59--C
_60--C
_61--C
_62--C
_63--C
_64--C
_65--C
_66--C
_67--C
_68--C
_69--C
_70--C
_71--C
_72--C
_73--C
_74--C
_75--C
_76--C
_77--C
_78--C
_79--C
_80--C
_81--C
_82--C
_83--C
_84--C
_85--C
_86--C
_87--C
_88--C
_89--C
_90--C
_91--C
_92--C
_93--C
_94--C
_95--C
_96--C
_97--C
_98--C
_99--C
_100--C
_101--C

-0.203057
0.520053
0.045857
0.137783
0.406097
0.850776
1.530906
1.006929
1.057786
1.272385
0.116794
-0.316295
-0.183156
-0.070334
-0.353670
-0.340988
0.252454
-0.286714
-0.273242
0.836243
0.016042
-0.438589
0.018774
0.606890
0.981866
-0.077515
1.551249
-0.209099
-0.078988
0.771059
0.728081
0.577957
0.884305
0.929501
0.413584
0.243008
-0.574171
0.841724
-0.149097
-0.196831
0.173190
-0.237395
0.038417
-0.292455
-0.069387
-0.032057
0.592437
0.372287
-0.254848
-0.314669
-0.265032
-0.344630
-0.285689
-0.364670
-0.126597

_250--C
_251--C
_252--C
_253--C
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_157--C
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Fixed effect
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_204--C
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1.542903
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_47--C
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_250--C
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