Distribusi Normal
Distribusi Gumbel
Distribusi Log Person Type III
Untukmenentukanmetode yang
dipilihmakaterlebihdahuludilakukanperhitungan parameter statistik, antara
lain :
Nilai rata-rata (Mean) :
σ𝑅
𝑅ത =
𝑛
Deviasistandart (Deviation Standart) :
σ 𝑅 − 𝑅ത 2
𝑆𝑑 =
𝑛−1
KoefisienVariasi (Variation Coefficient) :
𝑆𝑑
𝐶𝑣 =
𝑅ത
KoefisienKemencengan (Skewness Coefficient) :
σ 𝑅 − 𝑅ത 3 𝑛
𝐶𝑠 =
𝑛 − 1 𝑛 − 2 𝑆𝑑 3
KoefisienKetajaman (KurtosisCoefficient) :
σ 𝑅 − 𝑅ത 4 𝑛2
𝐶𝑘 =
Sifat- sifat parameter statistikdarimasing-
masingdistribusiteoritissebagaiberikut:
ഥ + 𝒌. 𝑺
𝑿= 𝑿
Dimana :
𝑋 = perkiraannilai yang
diharapkanterjadidenganbesarpeluangtertentuataupadaperiode
ulangtertentu.
𝑋ത = nilai rata-rata hitungvariat
𝑆 = standardeviasinilaivariat
𝑘 = faktorfrekuensi,
merupakanfungsidaripadapeluangatauperiodeulangdantipe
model matematikdaridistribusipeluang yang
digunakanuntukanalisispeluang.
(Soewarno, 1995)
RC 090324 –Hidrologi Terapan
Distribusi Normal
tatas@ce.its.ac.id
RC 090324 –Hidrologi Terapan
Distribusi Normal
tatas@ce.its.ac.id
MetodeDistribusiGumbel
Persamaanumumdarimetodedistribusigumbeladalah:
𝑆 𝑇−1
ത
𝑋= 𝑋+ − ln − ln − 𝑌𝑛
𝑆𝑛 𝑇
Dimana:
X = nilaivariat yang diharapkanterjadi
𝑋ത = nilai rata-rata hitungvariat
𝑌 = nilaireduksivariatdarivariabel yang
diharapkanterjadipadaperiodeulangtertentu,
ataudapatdihitungdenganrumus:
𝑇−1
𝑌 = − ln − ln
𝑇
Untuk T ≥ 20, maka Y = ln T
Yn = nilai rata-rata darireduksivariat
Sn = nilaistandardarireduksivariat
(Soewarno, 1995)
Cara Gumbel:
Rumus Umum
Rt R k
Yt Yn
K
Sn
RT = curah hujan dgn pereode ulang T
R = curah hujan rata2
δ=standart deviasi
Ri=curah hujan 24 jam
N=jumlah pengamatan
Yn=reduced mean
Sn=reduced standart deviasi
Yt=reduced mean variate yg merupakan fungsi dari masa ulang T
R R R Ri
Standart deviasi = 2atau 2
R i
i
n 1
n 1
T
Yt ln ln
T 1
m 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0,4952 0,4996 0,5035 0,5070 0,5100 0,5128 0,5157 0,5181 0,5209 0,5220
20 0,5236 0,5252 0,5268 0,5283 0,5296 0,5309 0,5320 0,5322 0,5343 0,5353
30 0,5362 0,5371 0,5380 0,5388 0,5396 0,5402 0,5410 0,5418 0,5424 0,5430
40 0,5436 0,5442 0,5448 0,5453 0,5458 0,5463 0,5468 0,5473 0,5477 0,5481
50 0,5485 0,5489 0,5493 0,5497 0,5501 0,5564 0,5508 0,5511 0,5515 0,5518
60 0,5521 0,5524 0,5527 0,5530 0,5523 0,5535 0,5538 0,5540 0,5543 0,5545
70 0,5548 0,5550 0,5552 0,5555 0,5577 0,5559 0,5561 0,5562 0,5565 0,5567
80 0,5569 0,5570 0,5572 0,5574 0,5576 0,5578 0,5580 0,5581 0,5583 0,5585
90 0,5585 0,5587 0,5589 0,5591 0,5592 0,5593 0,5595 0,5596 0,5598 0,5509
100 0,5600
m 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0,9496 0,9676 0,9833 0,9971 1,0095 1,0206 1,0316 1,0411 1,0493 1,0565
20 1,0628 1,0696 1,0754 1,8011 1,0864 1,0915 1,0961 1,1004 1,1047 1,1086
30 1,1124 1,1159 1,1193 1,1226 1,1255 1,1285 1,1313 1,1339 1,1363 1,1388
40 1,1413 1,1436 1,1458 1,1480 1,1499 1,1519 1,1538 1,1557 1,1574 1,1590
50 1,1607 1,1630 1,1836 1,1650 1,1667 1,1681 1,1696 1,1708 1,1721 1,1734
60 1,1747 1,1759 1,1770 1,1782 1.1793 1,1803 1,1814 12,182 1,8340 1,1844
70 1.1845 1,1863 1.1873 1,1882 1,1890 1,1898 1,1906 1,1915 1,1923 1,1930
80 1,9380 1,1945 1,1953 1,1959 1,1967 1,1973 1,1980 1,1987 1,1994 1,2001
90 1,2007 1,2013 1,202- 1,2026 1,2032 1,2038 1,2044 1,2049 1,2055 1,2060
100 1,2065
Metode Distribusi Log Pearson Type III
𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹 = 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹 + 𝒌. 𝑺𝒅𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹
Dimana :
Log R = logaritma curah hujan dalam periode ulang T tahun (mm)
σ 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹 − 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹 𝟐
𝑺 𝒍𝒐𝒈 𝑹 =
𝒏−𝟏
𝒏 σ 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹 − 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹 𝟐
𝑪𝒔 = 𝟑
(𝒏 − 𝟏)(𝒏 − 𝟐) 𝑺 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹
Tabel 2.1. Nilai K Distribusi Log Pearson Type III
Koefisien
Periode Ulang (Tahun)
Kemencengan
(Cs) 1.01 2 5 10 50 100
3 -0.667 -0.396 0.42 1.18 3.152 4.051
2.5 -0.799 -0.360 0.574 1.25 3.108 3.185
2 -0.990 -0.307 0.609 1.302 2.912 3.605
1.5 -1.256 -0.240 0.705 1.333 2.712 3.33
1.2 -1.449 -0.195 0.732 1.31 2.626 3.149
1 -1.588 -0.164 0.758 1.34 2.342 3.022
0.9 -1.660 -0.148 0.769 1.339 2.198 2.957
0.8 -1.733 -0.132 0.78 1.336 2.153 2.891
0.7 -1.806 -0.116 0.79 1.333 2.107 2.824
0.6 -1.880 -0.099 0.8 1.328 2.339 2.755
0.5 -1.955 -0.083 0.808 1.323 2.311 2.686
0.4 -2.029 -0.066 0.816 1.317 2.61 2.615
0.3 -2.101 -0.050 0.824 1.309 2.211 2.314
0.2 -2.178 -0.033 0.83 1.031 2.159 2.172
0.1 -2.252 -0.017 0.836 1.292 2.107 2.1
0 -2.326 0.000 0.842 1.282 2.031 2.326
-0.1 -2.100 0.017 0.834 1.27 2 2.232
-0.2 -2.172 0.033 0.85 1.258 1.945 2.178
-0.3 -2.541 0.060 0.853 1.245 1.89 2.101
-0.4 -2.615 0.066 0.855 1.231 1.831 2.029
-0.5 -2.686 0.083 0.856 1.216 1.777 1.955
-0.6 -2.755 0.099 0.857 1.2 1.72 1.88
-0.7 -2.821 0.166 0.857 1.183 1.663 1.806
-0.8 -2.891 0.132 0.856 1.166 1.606 1.733
-0.9 -2.937 0.148 0.854 1.147 1.519 1.66
-1 -3.022 0.161 0.852 1.128 1.492 1.888
-1.2 -3.149 0.195 0.844 1.086 1.379 1.449
-1.5 -3.330 0.240 0.832 1.018 1.217 1.256
-2 -3.605 0.307 0.777 0.895 0.98 0.99
-2.5 -3.815 0.360 0.711 0.771 0.798 0.799
-3 -4.051 0.396 0.636 0.66 0.666 0.667
HUJAN RENCANA
Curah Hujan Harian Maksimum
No Tahun
(mm)
1 2002 110
2 2003 105
3 2004 105
4 2005 112
5 2006 97
6 2007 97
7 2008 115
8 2009 72
9 2010 87
10 2011 80
11 2012 110
12 2013 110
13 2014 117
14 2015 105
15 2016 75
Curah hujan harian maksimum
Data Curah Hujan Harian Maksimum Sta. Hujan Kebon Agung
Curah Hujan Harian Maksimum Curah Hujan Harian Maksimum
No Tahun No Tahun
(mm) (mm)
5 1993 97 20 2008 85
6 1994 97 21 2009 76
8 1996 72 23 2011 97
10 1998 80 25 2013 95
11 1999 110
12 2000 110
13 2001 117
14 2002 105
15 2003 75
Tabel 2.1. Nilai K Distribusi Log Pearson Type III
Koefisien
Periode Ulang (Tahun)
Kemencengan
(Cs) 1.01 2 5 10 50 100
3 -0.667 -0.396 0.42 1.18 3.152 4.051
2.5 -0.799 -0.360 0.574 1.25 3.108 3.185
2 -0.990 -0.307 0.609 1.302 2.912 3.605
1.5 -1.256 -0.240 0.705 1.333 2.712 3.33
1.2 -1.449 -0.195 0.732 1.31 2.626 3.149
1 -1.588 -0.164 0.758 1.34 2.342 3.022
0.9 -1.660 -0.148 0.769 1.339 2.198 2.957
0.8 -1.733 -0.132 0.78 1.336 2.153 2.891
0.7 -1.806 -0.116 0.79 1.333 2.107 2.824
0.6 -1.880 -0.099 0.8 1.328 2.339 2.755
0.5 -1.955 -0.083 0.808 1.323 2.311 2.686
0.4 -2.029 -0.066 0.816 1.317 2.61 2.615
0.3 -2.101 -0.050 0.824 1.309 2.211 2.314
0.2 -2.178 -0.033 0.83 1.031 2.159 2.172
0.1 -2.252 -0.017 0.836 1.292 2.107 2.1
0 -2.326 0.000 0.842 1.282 2.031 2.326
-0.1 -2.100 0.017 0.834 1.27 2 2.232
-0.2 -2.172 0.033 0.85 1.258 1.945 2.178
-0.3 -2.541 0.060 0.853 1.245 1.89 2.101
-0.4 -2.615 0.066 0.855 1.231 1.831 2.029
-0.5 -2.686 0.083 0.856 1.216 1.777 1.955
-0.6 -2.755 0.099 0.857 1.2 1.72 1.88
-0.7 -2.821 0.166 0.857 1.183 1.663 1.806
-0.8 -2.891 0.132 0.856 1.166 1.606 1.733
-0.9 -2.937 0.148 0.854 1.147 1.519 1.66
-1 -3.022 0.161 0.852 1.128 1.492 1.888
-1.2 -3.149 0.195 0.844 1.086 1.379 1.449
-1.5 -3.330 0.240 0.832 1.018 1.217 1.256
-2 -3.605 0.307 0.777 0.895 0.98 0.99
-2.5 -3.815 0.360 0.711 0.771 0.798 0.799
-3 -4.051 0.396 0.636 0.66 0.666 0.667
LOG PERSON TYPE III
MetodeDistribusi Log Pearson Type III
𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹 = 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹 + 𝒌. 𝑺𝒅𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹
Dimana :
Log R = logaritmacurahhujandalamperiodeulang T tahun (mm)
σ 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹 − 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹 𝟐
𝑺 𝒍𝒐𝒈 𝑹 =
𝒏−𝟏
Cs = Koefisienkemencengan, denganrumus :
𝒏 σ 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹 − 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹 𝟐
𝑪𝒔 = 𝟑
(𝒏 − 𝟏)(𝒏 − 𝟐) 𝑺 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑹
Tabel 2.1. Nilai K Distribusi Log Pearson Type III
Koefisien
Periode Ulang (Tahun)
Kemencengan
(Cs) 1.01 2 5 10 50 100
3 -0.667 -0.396 0.42 1.18 3.152 4.051
2.5 -0.799 -0.360 0.574 1.25 3.108 3.185
2 -0.990 -0.307 0.609 1.302 2.912 3.605
1.5 -1.256 -0.240 0.705 1.333 2.712 3.33
1.2 -1.449 -0.195 0.732 1.31 2.626 3.149
1 -1.588 -0.164 0.758 1.34 2.342 3.022
0.9 -1.660 -0.148 0.769 1.339 2.198 2.957
0.8 -1.733 -0.132 0.78 1.336 2.153 2.891
0.7 -1.806 -0.116 0.79 1.333 2.107 2.824
0.6 -1.880 -0.099 0.8 1.328 2.339 2.755
0.5 -1.955 -0.083 0.808 1.323 2.311 2.686
0.4 -2.029 -0.066 0.816 1.317 2.61 2.615
0.3 -2.101 -0.050 0.824 1.309 2.211 2.314
0.2 -2.178 -0.033 0.83 1.031 2.159 2.172
0.1 -2.252 -0.017 0.836 1.292 2.107 2.1
0 -2.326 0.000 0.842 1.282 2.031 2.326
-0.1 -2.100 0.017 0.834 1.27 2 2.232
-0.2 -2.172 0.033 0.85 1.258 1.945 2.178
-0.3 -2.541 0.060 0.853 1.245 1.89 2.101
-0.4 -2.615 0.066 0.855 1.231 1.831 2.029
-0.5 -2.686 0.083 0.856 1.216 1.777 1.955
-0.6 -2.755 0.099 0.857 1.2 1.72 1.88
-0.7 -2.821 0.166 0.857 1.183 1.663 1.806
-0.8 -2.891 0.132 0.856 1.166 1.606 1.733
-0.9 -2.937 0.148 0.854 1.147 1.519 1.66
-1 -3.022 0.161 0.852 1.128 1.492 1.888
-1.2 -3.149 0.195 0.844 1.086 1.379 1.449
-1.5 -3.330 0.240 0.832 1.018 1.217 1.256
-2 -3.605 0.307 0.777 0.895 0.98 0.99
-2.5 -3.815 0.360 0.711 0.771 0.798 0.799
-3 -4.051 0.396 0.636 0.66 0.666 0.667
METODE GUMBEL
Perhitungan hujan rencana
Cara Gumbel:
Rt R k
Yt Yn
K
Sn
RT = curah hujan dgn pereode ulang T
R = curah hujan rata2
δ=standart deviasi
Ri=curah hujan 24 jam
N=jumlah pengamatan
Yn=reduced mean
Sn=reduced standart deviasi
Yt=reduced mean variate yg merupakan fungsi dari masa ulang T
Standart deviasi = atau
R R
R R Ri
2 2
i
i
n 1
n 1
T
Yt ln ln
T 1
Contoh perhitungan dgn gumbel
tahun R(mm)
1 52
2 46
3 92
4 70
5 25 Pertanyaan :
6 60 Tentukan tinggi hujan rencana
7 48 untuk pereode ulang 50 th dan 100
8 32 thn ( R50 dan R 100 )
9 20
10 24
No. R(mm) Ri-Rrt² (Ri-Rrt²)2 Ri²
1 92 45,1 2034,01 8464
2 70 23,1 533,61 4900
3 60 13,1 171.61 3600
4 52 5,1 26,01 2704
5 48 1,1 1,21 2304
6 46 -0,9 0,81 2116
7 32 -14,9 222,01 1024
8 25 -21,9 479,61 625
9 24 -22,9 524,41 576
10 20 -26,9 723,61 400
ΣR=469 Σ=4716,90 Σ=26713
Jawab :
Rrt2=469 :10=46,9
4716,90
22,89
9
3,9019 0,4952
Jadi R50= 46,9+ x 22,89 = 129,02 mm
0,9496
BERAPA TINGGI HUJAN 100 TAHUN ( R100 ) ?
Reduced mean (Yn)
m 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0,4952 0,4996 0,5035 0,5070 0,5100 0,5128 0,5157 0,5181 0,5209 0,5220
20 0,5236 0,5252 0,5268 0,5283 0,5296 0,5309 0,5320 0,5322 0,5343 0,5353
30 0,5362 0,5371 0,5380 0,5388 0,5396 0,5402 0,5410 0,5418 0,5424 0,5430
40 0,5436 0,5442 0,5448 0,5453 0,5458 0,5463 0,5468 0,5473 0,5477 0,5481
50 0,5485 0,5489 0,5493 0,5497 0,5501 0,5564 0,5508 0,5511 0,5515 0,5518
60 0,5521 0,5524 0,5527 0,5530 0,5523 0,5535 0,5538 0,5540 0,5543 0,5545
70 0,5548 0,5550 0,5552 0,5555 0,5577 0,5559 0,5561 0,5562 0,5565 0,5567
80 0,5569 0,5570 0,5572 0,5574 0,5576 0,5578 0,5580 0,5581 0,5583 0,5585
90 0,5585 0,5587 0,5589 0,5591 0,5592 0,5593 0,5595 0,5596 0,5598 0,5509
100 0,5600
Standart deviation( Sn )
m 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0,9496 0,9676 0,9833 0,9971 1,0095 1,0206 1,0316 1,0411 1,0493 1,0565
20 1,0628 1,0696 1,0754 1,8011 1,0864 1,0915 1,0961 1,1004 1,1047 1,1086
30 1,1124 1,1159 1,1193 1,1226 1,1255 1,1285 1,1313 1,1339 1,1363 1,1388
40 1,1413 1,1436 1,1458 1,1480 1,1499 1,1519 1,1538 1,1557 1,1574 1,1590
50 1,1607 1,1630 1,1836 1,1650 1,1667 1,1681 1,1696 1,1708 1,1721 1,1734
60 1,1747 1,1759 1,1770 1,1782 1.1793 1,1803 1,1814 12,182 1,8340 1,1844
70 1.1845 1,1863 1.1873 1,1882 1,1890 1,1898 1,1906 1,1915 1,1923 1,1930
80 1,9380 1,1945 1,1953 1,1959 1,1967 1,1973 1,1980 1,1987 1,1994 1,2001
90 1,2007 1,2013 1,202- 1,2026 1,2032 1,2038 1,2044 1,2049 1,2055 1,2060
100 1,2065