Hotel Development

Outlook In New
Normal
Oleh Baju Waskito Nugroho, CHA
Vice President Operation
Horison Hotels Group
Kondisi Ekonomi Makro Indonesia

Gbr 1. Proyeksi pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dunia 2020 - 2021

Gbr 2. Proyeksi pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia 2020 - 2021

Sumber: Kerangka Ekonomi Makro Indonesia 2021, Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia, May 2020
 Kondisi Ekonomi Makro Indonesia
Gbr 3. Dampak Covid-19 terhadap Permintaan dan Penawaran

- Sektor Hotel dan

Restaurant pada
Triwulan 1 2020
hanya tumbuh
1.95%
- Jan-Mar 2020
kunjungan
wisman turun
30.62% menjadi
2.61 juta
disbanding tahun
2019
Kondisi Ekonomi Makro Indonesia
Gbr.4 Dampak Covid-19 terhadap Berbagai Sektor
Kondisi Ekonomi Makro Indonesia
Gbr.5 Realisasi GDP di Triwulan 1 2020
Kondisi Ekonomi Makro Indonesia
Gbr.6 Realisasi GDP di Triwulan 1 2020
Kondisi Ekonomi Makro Indonesia
Gbr.1 Indikator Kesejahteraan
 Kondisi Ekonomi Makro Indonesia

Grafik 2 Pertumbuhan Uang Beredar, Kredit Investasi dan Pergerakan Suku Bunga di Pasar
Domestik
Kondisi Ekonomi Makro Indonesia
Grafik 3 Pertumbuhan Kredit, DPK dan Likuiditas Perbankan

• Pertumbuhan Kredit
menurun menjadi 6,1%
dg suku bunga kredit
investasi 9,87%

• Pertumbuhan Dana
Pihak Ketiga (DPK)/
Penempatan Dana
Masyarakat ke Bank naik
menjadi 6,8%

• Loan Deposit Ratio

menurun menjadi 92,6%
dari sebelumnya 93% di
Desember 2019
 Kondisi Ekonomi Makro Indonesia

Gbr. 7 Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 dan Langkah Penyehatan Ekonomi Indonesia

 Kondisi Ekonomi Makro Indonesia
Gbr. 8 Perubahan Postur APBN 2020
Kondisi Ekonomi Makro Indonesia
Tabel 1 Proyeksi Indikator Makro Ekonomi Jangka Menengah 2020 - 2024
 Kondisi Industri Perhotelan Indonesia
Grafik 4 Tingkat Hunian Kamar Hotel Bintang 2020 vs 2019 Tabel 2 Tingkat Hunian Kamar Hotel Bintang
2020 (yoy Mei)

- Pada Tahun 2019 Tingkat Penghunian Kamar atau

Occupancy Rate Rata-rata 53,8% (yoy)
- Kondisi Tingkat Penghunian Kamar atau Occupancy
Rate Rata-rata 2020 31,5% (yoy)
- Sedangkan pada saat pandemic (Maret, April, Mei)
rata-rata 19%
 Tabel Banyaknya Usaha, Kamar dan Tempat Tidur
pada Usaha Akomodasi Dirinci Menurut Klasifikasi
Akomodasi 2019

Grafik 5 Banyaknya Hotel Berbintang

menurut Klasifikasi Tahun 2019

Sumber:Statistik Hotel dan Akomodasi Lainnya di Indonesia 2019, BPS

3 Juli 2020
Grafik 6 Distribusi Kamar Usaha Akomodasi Menurut Provinsi Tahun 2019

Sumber:Statistik Hotel dan Akomodasi Lainnya di Indonesia 2019, BPS 3 Juli 2020
Tabel 3 Jumlah Usaha Akomodasi menurut Provinsi dan Status
Pengelolaan Uaha Akomodasi

Sumber:Statistik Hotel dan Akomodasi Lainnya di Indonesia 2019, BPS 3 Juli 2020
Sumber : Consumer Behavior New Normal by Yuswohadi, Farid Fatahillah, Amanda Rachmaniar, Isti Hanifah, 2020
Sumber : Consumer Behavior New Normal by Yuswohadi, Farid Fatahillah, Amanda Rachmaniar, Isti Hanifah, 2020
Investasi Hotel di Masa New Normal
1. Jual properti kepada para investor yang
mencari asset dengan resiko yg rendah di
pasar yang paling aman dan bersedia
membayar mahal. Ini adalah strategi yang
sangat relevan di masa ekonomi yg sulit

2) Membeli properti terutama hotel-hotel yg

sedang bermasalah dengan perbankan
namun memiliki prospek pasar yang bagus
sehingga aset dapat dibeli dengan diskon yg
cukup besar yg dapat digunakan untuk
penggantian biaya dan keuntungan
oportunistik lain yg dapat diperoleh.

3) reposisi property/hotel atau

menyelesaikan proyek hotel dengan
melakukan perbaikan, penyesuaian
ataupun peningkatan terhadap fisik
hotel untuk kemudian dipasarkan sesuai
dengan keinginan pasar.
Metode Penghitungan Investasi

Band of Cost Approach

Rate Multiplier Revenue Stream
Investment Age Life Method
• Rule of Thumb • Weighted • Involve the use • Develop by
• ADR x No of Average Cost of a cost HVS
Room x 1,000.- of Capital estimating International in
(WACC) guide to 2003 to
determine the determine the
replacement value of
cost of property property using
revenue stream
Contoh studi
• Jumlah Room Bay 112 Room Bay
• Jumlah Room Key 100 Room Key
• Kamar Deluxe 88 Room Key
• Kamar Junior Suite 10 Room Key
• Kamar Executive Suite 2 Room Key
• Restaurant 1 Resto
• Ruang Meeting 8 Ruang
• Luas Total Ruang Meeting 585 M2
• Lobby Lounge 1 Ruang
• Kolam Renang 1 Kolam
PROFIT & LOSS STATEMENT
10 years Investasi 36,727,000,000
CONSOLIDATION
YEAR OF
DESCRIPTION
1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL %

STATISTIC
No. Of Days 365 365 365 365 365 1,825
No. Of Rooms 100 100 100 100 100 100
No Of Room Available 36,500 36,500 36,500 36,500 36,500 182,500
Occupied Rooms 20,245 22,067 23,832 25,500 27,285 118,929
Occupied Rooms/Day 55 60 65 70 75 65
% Of Occupancy 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 65%
Number of Employee 35 35 35 35 35 35
Spanding Power Of Guest 248,446 254,936 262,929 272,440 285,437 266,184
Average Room Rate in Rp. 253,383 268,586 284,701 301,783 319,890 288,116
Avg Rm Rate inc.Tax,Svc and B'fast 391,293 409,689 429,188 449,857 471,767 433,320
No Of Guest 36,440 39,720 42,897 45,900 49,113 214,071

REVENUE
Room 5,129,632,542 5,926,777,439 6,784,974,812 7,695,518,432 8,728,257,006 34,265,160,232 60%
Food & Beverage 3,897,903,271 4,170,756,500 4,462,709,455 4,775,099,117 5,252,609,028 22,559,077,371 40%
Telephone 799,068 878,974 966,872 1,063,559 1,169,915 4,878,387 0%
Laundry 6,073,380 6,680,718 7,348,790 8,083,669 8,892,036 37,078,592 0%
Business Centre & Drugstore 13,020,000 14,322,000 15,754,200 17,329,620 19,062,582 79,488,402 0%
Pool Gym & Spa - - - - - - 0%
Other Income 6,000,000 6,600,000 7,260,000 7,986,000 8,784,600 36,630,600 0%
TOTAL REVENUE 9,053,428,261 10,126,015,632 11,279,014,129 12,505,080,397 14,018,775,167 56,982,313,585 100%

COST OF SALES
Food & Beverage 1,163,051,427 1,279,356,570 1,407,292,227 1,548,021,450 1,702,823,595 7,100,545,270 31%
Telephone 479,441 527,385 580,123 638,135 701,949 2,927,032 60%
Laundry 1,336,144 1,469,758 1,616,734 1,778,407 1,956,248 8,157,290 22%
Pool Gym & Spa 6,510,000 7,161,000 7,877,100 8,664,810 9,531,291 39,744,201 50%
TOTAL COST OF SALES 1,171,377,012 1,288,514,713 1,417,366,184 1,559,102,802 1,715,013,083 7,151,373,793 13%

PAYROLL & RELATED EXPENSES

Room 440,653,267 484,718,593 533,190,453 586,509,498 645,160,448 2,690,232,259 8%
Food & Beverage 342,476,250 376,723,875 414,396,263 455,835,889 501,419,478 2,090,851,756 9%
Telephone - - - - - - 0%
Laundry - - - - - - 0%
Business Centre & Drugstore - - - - - - 0%
Pool Gym & Spa - - - - - - 0%
TOTAL PAYROLL & RELATED EXPENSES 783,129,517 861,442,469 947,586,716 1,042,345,387 1,146,579,926 4,781,084,015 8%

OTHER EXPENSES
Room 548,106,211 602,916,832 663,208,516 729,529,367 802,482,304 3,346,243,230 10%
Food & Beverage 508,194,734 559,014,207 614,915,628 676,407,191 744,047,910 3,102,579,669 14%
Telephone - - - - - - 0%
Laundry - - - - - - 0%
Pool Gym & Spa - - - - - - ####
TOTAL OTHER EXPENSES 1,056,300,945 1,161,931,039 1,278,124,143 1,405,936,558 1,546,530,213 6,448,822,899 11%

OPERATING DEPARTMENT PROFIT

Room 4,140,873,064 4,839,142,014 5,588,575,844 6,379,479,567 7,280,614,254 28,228,684,743 82%
Food & Beverage 1,884,180,859 1,955,661,847 2,026,105,337 2,094,834,587 2,304,318,046 10,265,100,677 46%
Telephone 319,627 351,590 386,749 425,424 467,966 1,951,355 40%
Laundry 4,737,236 5,210,960 5,732,056 6,305,262 6,935,788 28,921,302 78%
Business Centre & Drugstore 12,510,000 14,322,000 15,754,200 17,329,620 19,062,582 78,978,402 99%
Pool Gym & Spa - - - - - - 0%
TOTAL OPERATING DEPT. PROFIT 6,042,620,787 6,814,688,411 7,636,554,186 8,498,374,459 9,611,398,636 38,603,636,479 68%
PROFIT & LOSS STATEMENT
10 years Investasi 36,727,000,000
CONSOLIDATION
YEAR OF
DESCRIPTION
1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL %

66.7% 67.3% 67.7% 68.0% 68.6% 67.7%

UNDISTRIBUTED PT&ER EXPENSES
Administration & General 514,443,550 565,887,905 622,476,696 684,724,366 753,196,802 3,140,729,320 6%
Sales & Marketing 171,947,938 189,142,732 208,057,005 228,862,706 251,748,977 1,049,759,359 2%
Security 105,300,000 115,830,000 127,413,000 140,154,300 154,169,730 642,867,030 1%
POM 150,684,136 165,752,550 182,327,805 200,560,586 220,616,644 919,941,721 2%
TOTAL UNDISTRIBUTED PTER 942,375,625 1,036,613,188 1,140,274,506 1,254,301,957 1,379,732,153 5,753,297,429 10%
UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES
Administration & General 139,722,073 153,694,280 169,063,708 185,970,079 204,567,087 853,017,228 1%
Sales & Marketing 266,046,325 292,650,958 321,916,054 354,107,659 389,518,425 1,624,239,421 3%
POM 118,805,428 130,685,971 143,754,568 158,130,025 173,943,028 725,319,020 1%
Energy Cost 1,063,777,821 1,170,155,603 1,287,171,163 1,415,888,279 1,557,477,107 6,494,469,973 11%
TOTAL UNDISTRIBUTED OPR. EXPENSES
1,588,351,647 1,747,186,812 1,921,905,493 2,114,096,043 2,325,505,647 9,697,045,643 17%
TOTAL UNDISTRIBURED EXP. 2,530,727,273 2,783,800,000 3,062,180,000 3,368,398,000 3,705,237,800 15,450,343,072 27%
GROSS OPERATING PROFIT 3,511,893,515 4,030,888,411 4,574,374,186 5,129,976,460 5,906,160,836 23,153,293,407 41%
G.O.P % 39% 40% 41% 41% 42% 41%
GOP/Month
Less :
Based Management Fee 181,068,565 202,520,313 225,580,283 250,101,608 280,375,503 1,139,646,272 1%
Incentive Fee 175,594,676 201,544,421 228,718,709 256,498,823 295,308,042 1,157,664,670 1%
Depreciation - - - - - - 0%
F.F & E Replacement 135,801,424 151,890,234 169,185,212 187,576,206 210,281,628 854,734,704 2%
Tax Land - - - - - - 0%
Capital Expenditure - - - - - - 0%
Interest Loan & Principal 2,674,464,000 2,650,464,000 2,530,464,000 2,350,464,000 2,110,464,000 12,316,320,000 22%
Property Insurance 33,918,000 34,596,360 35,288,287 35,994,053 36,713,934 176,510,634 0%
TOTAL NON OPERATING EXPENSES 3,200,846,665 3,241,015,328 3,189,236,491 3,080,634,690 2,933,143,107 15,644,876,280 11%
NET PROFIT BEFORE TAX 311,046,850 789,873,083 1,385,137,695 2,049,341,770 2,973,017,729 7,508,417,127 5%
Terima kasih
Jakarta, 9 Juli 2020
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