RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT Bab 8 Decline Curve Analysis
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT Bab 8 Decline Curve Analysis
➢ Latar Belakang
✓ Decline Curve Analysis adalah teknik empirik untuk menganalisa data
sejarah produksi sumur atau lapangan dan untuk memprediksi
kinerja produksi dari sumur atau lapangan tersebut serta dapat
menghitung sisa cadangan yang dapat diproduksikan.
✓ Decline Curve Analysis dapat dilakukan untuk masing-masing individu
sumur, reservoir, lapangan atau segment dari suatu lapangan.
✓ Merupakan teknik yang paling sederhana dan “reliable” untuk
memprediksi kinerja produksi mendatang dan menentukan sisa
cadangan suatu sumur atau lapangan
✓ Keakuratan hasil Decline Curve Analysis sangat tergantung dari
kualitas, kelengkapan, dan keakuratan data produksi
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Decline Curve Analysis
➢ Latar Belakang
ResearchGate
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Decline Curve Analysis
➢ Latar Belakang
Analisa Data Produksi
Laju Produksi Minyak (BOPD)
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Decline Curve Analysis
➢ Latar Belakang
Analisa Data Produksi
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Decline Curve Analysis
Decline Rate q
qi
Faktor Hiperbolik = derivatif dari D
Persamaan Arps:
-1/b
q = qi (1+ b Di t) t
J.J. Arps
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
➢ Eksponensial
➢ Hiperbolik
➢ Harmonik
-1/b
q = qi (1+ b Di t)
qi = laju produksi awal, BOPD
b = konstanta hiperbolik
Di = Decline rate (laju penurunan), %/year J.J. Arps
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
❑ Eksponensial
-1/b
q = qi (1+ b Di t)
❑ Hiperbolik
Hiperbolik jika 0<b<1
-1/b
q = qi (1+ b Di t)
Kumulatif produksi:
q q
-1/b
Q = q dt = qi (1+ b Di t) dt
qi qi
qi b (1-b) ]
[qi(1-b) - q
Q = D (1-b)
i
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
❑ Harmonik
Harmonik jika b = 0
qi
q=
(1+ Di t)
Kumulatif produksi:
q q
qi dt
Q = q dt =
qi
(1+ Di t)
qi
qi
Q= [ln (qi / q)]
Di
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
Qo (BOPD)
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
Q (BOPD)
Q (BOPD)
q = qoi (1 – dy ) = ( ) (1 - ) = BOPD
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
qoi - q2 ( - )
Np = 365 = 365 = BO
Dy ( )
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
Waktu (tahun)
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Decline Curve Analysis
Waktu (tahun)
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BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
Asumsi:
Harga minyak $ 50/BO
Operatin cost $ 30/B0
Produksi Lapangan 2000 BOPD
Jumlah sumur produksi
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
qi - qEL
Eksponensial Q=
Di
qi b
Hiperbolik Q = D (1-b) [qi(1-b) - qEL(1-b) ]
i
Harmonik qi
Q= [ln (qi / qEL)]
Di
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
scaitul.com/
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BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
GOR ?
scaitul.com/
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BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
Gp
fekete.com
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BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
? ?
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BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
Remaining time
scaitul.com/
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BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
6. Menganalisa keekonomian proyek minyak dan gas bumi
Year Oil Prod (BOPD) Oil Price ($) Revenue ($)
0 2,000 50 36,500,000
1 1,637 50 29,883,672
2
3
1,341
1,098
50
50
24,466,682
20,031,625
Data Aktual
4 899 50 16,400,507
5 736 50 13,427,600
6 602 50 10,993,589
7 493 50 9,000,789
8 404 50 7,369,223
9 331 50 6,033,409
10 271 50 4,939,738
11 222 50 4,044,315
12 181 50 3,311,205
13 149 50 2,710,986
14 122 50 2,219,567 Forecast
15 100 50 1,817,228
16 82 50 1,487,820
17 67 50 1,218,124
Biaya Produksi:
18 55 50 997,316 $ 1,500,000/ tahun
19 45 50 816,533
20 37 50 668,521 Remaining time??
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
1. Keakuratan data
2. Kelengkapan data
3. Keakuratan visual dalam menarik garis trend
4. Probabilistik Decline Rate Analysis
5. Data belum cukup memadai
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
Kelengkapan data
q q= q1 q2
q1
q2
t
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
Economic Limit
Kum. Prod. (MBO)
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BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
a. Eksponensial
b. Hyperbolic dengan b = 0.4 dan b = 0.7
c. Harmonic
t
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
-1/b
q* = qi (1+ b Di t)
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BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
b
Nilai b yang dipakai
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
➢ Decline Curve Analysis – Investigasi Decline Type dan Decline Rate
Tentukan tipe jenis decline dan bagaimana persamaan decline curve
dari data produksi berikut:
Tahun qo (BOPD)
0 19990
1 15652
2 10250
3 8022
4 6667
5 4554
6 3056
7 1433
8 1554
9 1122
10 854
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
➢ Decline Curve Analysis – Investigasi Decline Type dan Decline Rate
Tentukan tipe jenis decline dan bagaimana persamaan decline curve
dari data produksi berikut: Tahun BOPD
1984 439.8
1985 430.4
1986 375.2
Tentukan juga perkiraan 1987
1988
303.1
300.8
produksi sampai tahun 2010 1989 283.8
1990 244.9
1991 247.9
1992 178.5
1993 186.7
1994 175.2
1995 173.5
1996 166.7
1997 158.9
1998 102.8
1999 104.6
2000 99.4
2001 103.3
2002 95.5
2003 93.7
2004 87.1
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
➢ Decline Curve Analysis – Investigasi Decline Type dan Decline Rate
Oil Rate Water Rate Water Cut Oil Cut Oil Cum
Tahun
BOPD BWPD % % MBO
1984 439.8
Dari data produksi
1985 430.4
sebelumnya, lengkapi tabel di 1986 375.2
sebelah ini. Jika sumur 1987 303.1
menggunakan pompa dengan 1988 300.8
1989 283.8
laju alir fluida sebesar 500 1990 244.9
BFPD. 1991 247.9
Buatlah grafik Water Cut 1992 178.5
terhadap Oil Cumulative. Jika 1993 186.7
1994 175.2
economic limit sumur pada 1995 173.5
water cut 90%, berapa 1996 166.7
remaining reserves sumur 1997 158.9
tersebut. 1998 102.8
1999 104.6
Gunakan 1 tahun = 365.25 2000 99.4
hari. 2001 103.3
2002 95.5
2003 93.7
2004 87.1
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
➢ Decline Curve Analysis – Investigasi Decline Type dan Decline Rate
Tentukan Jenis Decline Curve dari Data Produksi dari sumur vertical ini
Tentukan Jenis Decline Curve dari Data Produksi dari sumur vertical ini
Np = RF * OOIP OOIP = Np / RF =
(OOIP) * Boi
A= A = p r2 r=
7758.h.(1 – Sw).f
r
1 Acre = 43560 ft2
RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
BASIC PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICAL USES - Jenis-jenis Decline Curve
➢ Decline Curve Analysis – Investigasi Decline Type dan Decline Rate
Tentukan Jenis Decline Curve dari Data Produksi dari sumur horizontal ini
Tentukan Jenis Decline Curve dari Data Produksi dari sumur horizontal ini
Np = RF * OOIP OOIP = Np / RF =
(OOIP) * Boi
A=
7758.h.(1 – Sw).f
A = ½ p r2 + L.r + ½ p r2
A = p r2 + L.(2r)
L = Lateral Section p r2 + 2.L.r – A = 0
r= ft
Tentukan Jenis Decline Curve dari Data Produksi dari lapangan ini
1. Keakuratan data
2. Kelengkapan data
3. Keakuratan visual dalam menarik garis trend
4. Data belum cukup memadai
5. Probabilistik Decline Rate Analysis
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