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SOAL DAN PEMBAHASAN DISTRIBUSI PROBABILITAS DISKRIT (PELUANG)

SOAL DAN PEMBAHASAN DISTRIBUSI PROBABILITAS DISKRIT (PELUANG)

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Published by: Rasyid Ridha on Jul 10, 2011
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LATIHAN & PEMBAHASAN SUAL

DISTRIBUSI PELUANC DISKRIT

Bisusun 0ntuk Nemenuhi Salah Satu Tugas Nata Kuliah
PENCANTAR TEURI PELUANC

Bosen :
Ir. Agus Purwoto, M.Si




KELAS I - B

Bisusun 0leh :

RASYID RIDHA
NIM. ŵŴ.źŸŶ8


SEKULAH TINCCI ILMU STATISTIK
)AKARTA
ŶŴŵŵ
Latiban dan P¢mbabasan Soal Distribusi P¢luang Diskrit | S T I S

SUAL !


ŵ Distribusi Hip¢rg¢om¢trik
Sumbei : Teknik Stotistiko untuk BlSNlS & FK0N0Hl FJisi ke-9 IiliJ Ź obeit B
Nason, Bouglas A Linu hal Ŷźŵ
Piofesoi Ion Bammei mempunyai kumpulan ŵŹ peitanyaan pilihan beiganua tentang
uistiibusi piobabilitasEmpat uaii peitanyaan teisebut meiupakan soal tentang
uistiibusi hipeigeometiikeiapa piobabilitas sekuiang - kuiangnya ŵ uaii kumpulan
peitanyaan ini akan muncul soal hipeigeometiik paua kuis ui haii Senin yang teiuiii
atas Ź peitanyaan .

Ŷ Distribusi Binomial N¢gatif
Sumbei : Bl0STATlSTlKA untuk KeJokteron Jon Keseboton Hosvorokot Bi Eko
uuiaito, SKN Peneibit uku Keuokteian EuC hal ŵŷŵ

Paua suatu uaeiah gonuok enuemis, piobabilitas seseoiang teikena stiuma aualah
ŵŶ%ila uilakukan pemeiiksaan teihauap Ÿ8 oiang penuuuuk yang uiambil secaia
acak, beiapa piobabilitas oiang ke-Ź yang uipeiiksa meiupakan oiang ke-ŷ yang
menueiita stiuma .

ŷ Distribusi C¢om¢trik
Sumbei : http://www.xchoolworkout.co.uk/
Each time a playei plays a ceitain caiu game calleu "patience", theie is a piobability of
ŴŵŹ that the game will woik out successfully anu theie is a piobability of Ŵ8Ź that
the game will not woik out successfully The piobability of success in any game is
inuepenuent of the outcome of any othei game A playei plays games of patience until
a game woiks out successfully
a inu the piobability that she plays Ÿ games altogethei
b inu the piobability that at most ź games aie playeu
c iite uown the expecteu numbei of games that aie playeu

Ÿ Aproksimasi Poisson untuk Distribusi Binomial
Sumbei : SCEA0H´S 00TllNFS STATlSTlK FBlSl KFTl6A Nuiiay Spiegel, Laiiy I
Stephens hal ŵŸŻ
Nenuiut uata uaii National 0ffice of vital Statistics of the 0S Bepaitment of Bealth,
Euucation, anu elfaie, iata - iata uaii banyaknya kecelakaan oiang tenggelam pei
tahun ui Ameiika Seiikat aualah ŷ pei ŵŴŴŴŴŴ penuuuukCaiilah piobabilitas bahwa
ui sebuah kota yang memiliki jumlah penuuuuk sebanyak ŶŴŴŴŴŴ jiwa :
a Tiuak aua oiang yang tenggelam pei tahunnya
b Bua oiang tenggelam pei tahunnya
c Enam oiang tenggelam pei tahunnya
u Belapan oiang tenggelam pei tahunnya
e Antaia Ÿ uan 8 oiang tenggelam pei tahunnya
f Kuiang uaii ŷ oiang tenggelam pei tahunnya
Latiban dan P¢mbabasan Soal Distribusi P¢luang Diskrit | S T I S

Ź Distribusi Poisson
Sumbei : 0BABlllTY ANB STATlSTlCS I0 FN6lNFFlN6 ANB TEF SClFNCFS
seventb eJition; Iay L Bevoie hal ŵŶŹ
The numbei of people aiiiving foi tieatment at an emeigency ioom can be moueleu
by a Poisson piocess with a iate paiametei of five pei houi
a hat is the piobability that exactly foui aiiivals occui uuiing a paiticulai houi .
b hat is the piobability that at least foui people aiiive uuiing a paiticulai houi .
c Bow many people uo you expect to aiiive uuiing ŸŹ minutes peiiou .


PEMBAHASAN SUAL !
ŵ Bik :
Nŵ = Ÿ peitanyaan tentang uistiibusi hipeigeometiik
NŶ = ŵŵ peitanyaan bukan tentang uistiibusi hipeigeometiik
N = Nŵ + NŶ = ŵŹ
n = Ź sampel
X menyatakan banyaknya peitanyaan tentang uistiibusi hipeigeometiik yang muncul
paua kuis haii Senin

Naka :

P(X = x) =
C
x
N
1
C
n-x
N
2
C
n
N


P(X ~ ŵ) = `
C
x
N
1
C
n-x
N
2
C
n
N
4
x = 1
= `
C
x
4
C
5-x
11
C
5
15
4
x = 1

`
C
x
4
C
5-x
11
C
5
15
4
x = 1
=
C
1
4
C
4
11
+ C
2
4
C
3
11
+ C
3
4
C
2
11
+C
4
4
C
1
11
ŷŴŴŷ
=
11
13


Iaui, peluang sekuiang - kuiangnya ŵ uaii kumpulan peitanyaan akan muncul soal
hipeigeometiik paua kuis ui haii Senin yang teiuiii atas Ź peitanyaan aualah
11
13
atau
s¢kitar 8Ÿ,źŵ¾
Latiban dan P¢mbabasan Soal Distribusi P¢luang Diskrit | S T I S

Ŷ Bik :
p = ŵŶ% = Ŵ,ŵŶ peluang menueiita stiuma
q = 88% = Ŵ,88 peluang tiuak menueiita stiuma
k = ŷ
X menyatakan banyaknya penuuuuk yang uipeiiksa yang uipeikiiakan menueiita
stiuma
P(X = k) = C
k-1
x-1
p
k
q
x-k

P(X = Ź) = C
2
4
p
3
q
2
= ź(Ŵ,ŵŶ)
3
(Ŵ,88)
2
ɞ 8,Ŵŷ × ŵŴ
-3
ɞ Ŵ,8Ŵŷ%
Iaui, piobabilitas oiang ke-Ź yang uipeiiksa meiupakan oiang ke-ŷ yang menueiita
stiuma aualah 8,Ŵŷ × ŵŴ

atau s¢kitar Ŵ,8Ŵŷ¾
ŷ e know :
p = Ŵ,ŵŹ piobability of the game will woik out successfully
q = Ŵ,8Ź piobability of the game will not woik out successfully
X is the numbei of games playeu
P(X = x) = pq
x-1
, x = ŵ,Ŷ,ŷ, .
a. If she plays Ÿ games altogethei she must lose the fiist ŷ games anu be successful
on the Ÿ
th

P(X = Ÿ) = (Ŵ,ŵŹ)(Ŵ,8Ź)
4-1
= (Ŵ,ŵŹ)(Ŵ,8Ź)
3
ɞ û, û921
So, the piobability that she plays Ÿ games altogethei is Ŵ,Ŵ9Ŷŵ oi 9,Ŷŵ¾
b. At most ź games playeu, it means that the maximum value of X is ź.
P(ŵ < X < ź) = `pq
x-1
6
x=1
= Ŵ,ŵŹ(Ŵ,8Ź
0
+Ŵ,8Ź
1
+Ŵ,8Ź
2
+ Ŵ,8Ź
3
+Ŵ,8Ź
4
+ Ŵ,8Ź
5
)
P(ŵ < X < ź) = `pq
x-1
6
x=1
= Ŵ,ŵŹ(Ÿ,ŵŹŶŷŷźŹźŷ) ɞ Ŵ,źŶŷ
So, the piobability that at most ź games aie playeu is Ŵ,źŶŷ oi źŶ,ŷ¾
c The expecteu numbei expecteu value of the games theie aie playeu
(x) = ` x(pq
x-1
)
ŋ
x = 1
= p + Ŷpq + ŷpq
2

q (x) = pq +Ŷpq
2
+ ŷpq
3

(x) -q (x) = (ŵ -q)(x) = p +pq +pq
2
+ pq
3
+ · = ŵ
(x) =
ŵ
ŵ-q
=
ŵ
p
Ex of the games that aie playeu is
ŵ
Ŵ,ŵŹ
ɞ ó, 7
Latiban dan P¢mbabasan Soal Distribusi P¢luang Diskrit | S T I S

Ÿ Bik :
p =
ŷ
ŵŴŴŴŴŴ
= ŷ × ŵŴ

peluang seseoiang tenggelam
n = ŶŴŴŴŴŴ
secaia empiiis, n > ŷŴ uan p < Ŵ,Ŵŷ, maka akan sangat efektif jika menggunakan
apioksimasi poisson untuk uistiibusi binomial
i = np = ŶŴŴŴŴŴ × ŷ × ŵŴ
-5
= ź
P(X = x) =
e
-6
ź
x
x!
, x = Ŵ,ŵ,Ŷ.
X menyatakan banyaknya oiang yang tenggelam pei tahunnya
a Tiuak aua oiang yang tengelam
P(X = Ŵ) =
e
-6
ź
0
Ŵ!
= e
-6
ɞ 2, 479 × 1û
-3

b Bua oiang tenggelam pei tahunnya
P(X = Ŷ) =
e
-6
ź
2
Ŷ!
= ŵ8e
-6
ɞ û, û44ó
c Enam oiang tenggelam pei tahunnya
P(X = ź) =
e
-6
ź
6
ź!
= źŸ,8 × e
-6
ɞ û, 1ó1
u Belapan oiang tenggelam pei tahunnya
P(X = 8) =
e
-6
ź
8
8!
ɞ Ÿŵ,źź × e
-6
ɞ û, 1û3
e Antaia Ÿ uan 8 oiang tenggelam pei tahunnya
P(Ÿ < X < 8) = `
e

ź
x
x!
8
x = 4
ɞ û, ó9ó
f Kuiang uaii ŷ oiang tenggelam pei tahunnya
P(X < ŷ) = `
e

ź
x
x!
2
x = 0
ɞ û, ûó2


Latiban dan P¢mbabasan Soal Distribusi P¢luang Diskrit | S T I S

Ź e know :
Ex = Ź
P(X = x) =
e
-\
i
x
x!
, x = Ŵ,ŵ,Ŷ.
Ex in poisson uistiibution is i, so Ex = i = Ź
P(X = x) =
e
-5
Ź
x
x!
, x = Ŵ,ŵ,Ŷ.
X is numbei of people aiiiving foi tieatment at an emeigency ioom
a Exactly foui aiiivals occui uuiing a paiticulai houi
P(X = Ÿ) =
e
-5
Ź
4
Ÿ!
ɞ Ŷź,ŴŸŶ × e
-5
ɞ û, 175
b At least foui people aiiive uuiing a paiticulai houi
P(X ~ Ÿ) = ŵ - `
e
-5
Ź
x
x!
3
x=0
ɞ ŵ - Ŵ,ŶźŹ ɞ û, 735
c Bow many people uo you expect to aiiive uuiing ŸŹ minutes peiiou
e know that the expecteu value of aiiival uuiing one houi is five peopleSo,
numbei of people expect to aiiive uuiing ŸŹ minutes is :
ŸŹ
źŴ
× Ź = 3, 75
So, about ŷ to Ÿ p¢opl¢ tbat ¢xp¢ct¢d will arriv¢ during ŸŹ minut¢s





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