WAKTU STASIONER
❖ Dual Relationship antara
Model AR dan MA
❖ MODEL ARMA
(Mixed Autoregressive
Moving Average Process)
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Dual Relationship antara
AR(p) dan MA(q)
■ Model AR(p)
𝑌𝑡 = 𝜙1 𝑌𝑡−1 + 𝜙2 𝑌𝑡−2 + ⋯ + 𝜙𝑝 𝑌𝑡−𝑝 +𝑒𝑡
atau dapat ditulis :
𝜙𝑝 𝐵 𝑌𝑡 = 𝑒𝑡 (1)
Dimana : 𝜙𝑝 𝐵 : operator backward
𝜙𝑝 𝐵 = (1 − 𝜙1 𝐵 − ⋯ − 𝜙𝑝 𝐵 𝑝 )
Dengan 𝐵𝑌𝑡 = 𝑌𝑡−1 , 𝐵 2 𝑌𝑡 = 𝑌𝑡−2 , 𝐵 𝑝 𝑌𝑡 = 𝑌𝑡−𝑝
Persamaan (1) Dapat ditulis sebagai:
1
𝑌𝑡 = 𝑒 = 𝜓(𝐵)𝑒𝑡
𝜙𝑝 (𝐵) 𝑡
𝜓(𝐵) = 1 + 𝜓1 𝐵 + 𝜓2 𝐵 2 + ⋯ . sehingga 𝜙𝑝 𝐵 𝜓 𝐵 = 1
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Dual Relationship antara
AR(p) dan MA(q)
■ Misal Model AR(2):
1 2
𝑌𝑡 = 𝑒𝑡 = 1 + 𝜓1 𝐵 + 𝜓2 𝐵 + ⋯ . 𝑒𝑡
(1 − 𝜙1 𝐵 − 𝜙2 𝐵 2 )
(1 − 𝜙1 𝐵 − 𝜙2 𝐵 2 ) 1 + 𝜓1 𝐵 + 𝜓2 𝐵 2 + ⋯ . = 1
1 + 𝜓1 𝐵 + 𝜓2 𝐵 2 + ⋯
−𝜙1 𝐵 −𝜓1 𝜙1 𝐵 2 + 𝜓2 𝜙1 𝐵 3 + ⋯
−𝜙2 𝐵 2 − 𝜓1 𝜙2 𝐵 2 − ⋯ = 1
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1 + 𝜓1 𝐵 + 𝜓2 𝐵2 + ⋯
−𝜙1 𝐵 −𝜓1 𝜙1 𝐵2 + 𝜓2 𝜙1 𝐵3 + ⋯
−𝜙2 𝐵2 − 𝜓1 𝜙2 𝐵2 − ⋯ = 1
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Dual Relationship antara
AR(p) dan MA(q)
■ Misal Model MA(2):
2
1
1 − 𝜋1 𝐵 − 𝜋2 𝐵 − ⋯ . 𝑌𝑡 = 𝑌 = 𝑒𝑡
(1 − 𝜃1 𝐵 − 𝜃2 𝐵 2 ) 𝑡
(1 − 𝜃1 𝐵 − 𝜃2 𝐵 2 ) 1 − 𝜋1 𝐵 − 𝜋2 𝐵 2 − ⋯ . = 1
1 − 𝜋1 𝐵 − 𝜋2 𝐵 2 − ⋯ .
−𝜃1 𝐵 +𝜋1 𝜃1 𝐵 2 + 𝜋2 𝜃1 𝐵 3 + ⋯
−𝜃2 𝐵 2 + 𝜋1 𝜃2 𝐵 2 + ⋯ = 1
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1 − 𝜋1 𝐵 − 𝜋2 𝐵 2 − ⋯ .
−𝜃1 𝐵 +𝜋1 𝜃1 𝐵 2 + 𝜋2 𝜃1 𝐵 3 + ⋯
−𝜃2 𝐵 2 + 𝜋1 𝜃2 𝐵 2 + ⋯ = 1
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Model ARMA(p,q)
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Model ARMA(p,q)
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Model ARMA(1,1)
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𝑌𝑡 = 𝜙𝑌𝑡−1 + 𝑒𝑡 − 𝜃𝑒𝑡−1 (4.4.2) 𝐸(𝑒𝑡 𝑌𝑡 ) = 𝜎𝑒2 𝐸(𝑒𝑡−1 𝑌𝑡 ) = 𝜙 − 𝜃 𝜎𝑒2
(1−𝜙𝜃)(𝜙−𝜃)𝜎𝑒2
𝛾𝑘 = 𝜙𝛾𝑘−1 , 𝛾1 = 1−𝜙 2
(1 − 𝜙𝜃)(𝜙 − 𝜃)𝜎𝑒2
𝛾2 = 𝜙 𝛾1 = 𝜙
1 − 𝜙2
𝛾2 (1−𝜙𝜃)(𝜙−𝜃)𝜎𝑒2 (1−2 𝜙𝜃+𝜃2 )𝜎𝑒2 (1−𝜙𝜃)(𝜙−𝜃)
→ 𝜌2 = 𝛾0
= 𝜙 1−𝜙2
ൗ (1−𝜙2 )
= (1−2 𝜙𝜃+𝜃2 ) 𝜙
(1−𝜙𝜃)(𝜙−𝜃)
→ 𝜌𝑘 = 𝜙 𝑘−1 , 𝑘 ≥ 1
(1−2 𝜙𝜃+𝜃2 )
Model ARMA(1,1)
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Model ARMA(1,1)
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Model ARMA(1,1)
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Model ARMA(1,1)
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Model ARMA(1,1)
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Model ARMA(1,1)
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Model ARMA(1,1)
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Model ARMA(1,1)
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Tugas
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