PROGRAM STUDI
TEKNIK INDUSTRI
500
300
200
100
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Linear Regression
𝑦 =𝑎+𝑏𝑥
600
Dimana:
𝑆𝑦
500
𝑏=𝑟
𝑆𝑥
400 f(x) = 18.797619047619 x + 268.285714285714
𝑎= 𝑦 − 𝑏 𝑥
300
dan
200
𝑟=
∑ [ ( 𝑥 − 𝑥)( 𝑦 − 𝑦 ) ]
100
√∑ ( 𝑥 − 𝑥 )2 ∑ ( 𝑦 − 𝑦 )2
∑
√
0
2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
( 𝑦 − 𝑦 )
𝑆𝑦 =
𝑛−1
Linear Regression
𝑦 =𝑎+𝑏𝑥
600
Dimana:
𝑆𝑦
500
𝑏=𝑟
𝑆𝑥
400 f(x) = 18.797619047619 x + 268.285714285714
𝑎= 𝑦 − 𝑏 𝑥
300
dan
200
𝑟=
∑ [ ( 𝑥 − 𝑥)( 𝑦 − 𝑦 ) ]
100
√∑ ( 𝑥 − 𝑥 )2 ∑ ( 𝑦 − 𝑦 )2
∑
√
0
2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
( 𝑦 − 𝑦 )
𝑆𝑦 =
𝑛−1
Linear Regression
600
500
300
200
100
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Forecast Error - MFE
The has been encountered earlier in the chapter. It represents the difference between the forecast
and the actual demand for any given time period, also called the forecast error.
Forecast Error - MFE
There is a very good reason the MFE does not really represent the average forecast
error, as can be shown in table above, the MFE values results in 0, which can lead to
misinterpretation that the forecast used results in zero errors.
Forecast Error - MFE
On the bright side, MFE can represent the forecast bias.
For example, if the MFE results in a positive value it indicates that the
overall actual demand is higher than that of the forecast.
Forecast Error - MAD
Forecast Error - MAD
Forecast Error – Tracking Signal
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