Pemilihan Lokasi Budidaya Japanese Kelp (Laminaria japonica) di Selatan Hokkaido, Jepang, dengan Menggunakan Data Penginderaan Jauh

Satelit dan Model GIS

I Nyoman Radiarta, Sei-Ichi Saitoh, dan Hajime Yasui

Zhao, X. 2006. In situ target-strength measurement of young hairtail (Trichiurus haumela) in the Yellow Sea. e ICES Journal of Marine Science, 63: 46-51. PAPER SISTEM INFORMASI GEOGRAFI KELAUTAN Oleh: RIZQI RIZALDI HIDAYAT C552120031

PROGRAM STUDI TEKNOLOGI KELAUTAN INSTITUT PERTANIAN BOGOR 2013

Pemilihan Lokasi Budidaya Japanese Kelp (Laminaria japonica) di Selatan Hokkaido, Jepang, dengan Menggunakan Data Penginderaan Jauh Satelit dan Model GIS Oleh: I Nyoman Radiarta, Sei-Ichi Saitoh, dan Hajime Yasui

Abstrak Laminaria japonica adalah spesies penting dalam kegiatan budidaya perairan di Jepang. Analisis daerah yang paling cocok untuk aktivitas budidaya di perairan Hokkaido Selatan ditentukan dengan menggunakan model GIS dan pendekatan evaluasi multikriteria. Analisis parameter fisik (suhu permukaan laut dan padatan tersuspensi dari SeaWiFS dan MODIS) dan data batimetri menunjukkan bahwa sekitar 74% (1139 km2) dari total daerah dengan kedalaman kurang dari 60 m adalah daerah berpotensi untuk budidaya Laminaria japonica. Sebuah analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa parameter padatan tersuspensi (SS) lebih merupakan parameter utama dalam mempengaruhi model output. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa model GIS dapat digunakan secara efektif untuk membangun model spasial untuk budidaya rumput laut.

Pendahuluan Lebih dari 50 spesies rumput laut telah dilaporkan di seluruh dunia, sedangkan 20 diantaranya tumbuh di wilayah Asia-Pasifik (Scoggan et al., 1989). Japanese kelp (Laminaria japonica) merupakan spesies asli dari pantai Pasifik Barat Laut dan dapat tumbuh perairan subtropis dengan perairan yang relatif dingin (Scoggan et al., 1989). Japanese kelp adalah salah satu spesies rumput laut bernilai ekonomis sehingga banyak dibudidayakan (Critchley, 1993). Produktivitas Japanese kelp di dunia terus meningkat selama 17 tahun terakhir, dari 2,5 juta ton pada tahun 1990 menjadi lebih dari 4,5 juta ton di tahun 2007 (FAO, 2009). Cina merupakan produsen tertinggi dalam produksi Japanese kelp, diikuti oleh Jepang dan Korea. Di Jepang, spesies ini terutama ditemukan di sepanjang Pulau Hokkaido dan pantai timur laut Honshu. Secara tradisional, Japanese kelp dipanen dari alam, akan tetapi karena eksploitasi yang berlebihan, spesies rumput laut ini menjadi terancam. Untuk itu diperlukan teknik budidaya agar kelestarian Japanese kelp terus terjaga. Saat ini, lebih dari 36% produksi Japanese kelp di Jepang adalah hasil dari budidaya (FAO, 2009), terutama di Hokkaido. Lokasi dan jumlah kegiatan budidaya harus memperhatikan kebutuhan konservasi dan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan (GESAMP, 2001). Penentuan akhir dari lokasi kesesuaian

melibatkan pertimbangan faktor sosial, ekonomi, dan lingkungan. Dengan berkembangnya sistem informasi geografis (GIS) dan ketersediaan data penginderaan jarak jauh satelit, sekarang memungkinkan untuk memilih area yang cocok secara cepat dan sistematis. GIS telah banyak digunakan dalam pengembangan budidaya, termasuk lokasi penentuan kesesuaian, zonasi, analisis dampak lingkungan, perencanaan, inventarisasi, dan pemantauan budidaya dan lingkungan (Arnold et al., 2000; Bacher et al., 2003; Perez et al., 2005; Corner et al., 2006; Longdill et al., 2008; Radiarta et al., 2008). Telah banyak penelitian dilakukan dalam pemilihan lokasi budidaya (Arnold et al., 2000; Perez et al., 2003; Radiarta et al., 2008), tetapi hanya sedikit yang menggunakan data ocean-colour dari citra satelit untuk menganalisis lokasi kesesuaian untuk budidaya rumput laut. Makalah ini menyajikan evaluasi kuantitatif wilayah pesisir dengan menggunakan model fisik GIS untuk mengidentifikasi lokasi yang cocok untuk pengembangan budidaya rumput laut Japanese klep di selatan Hokkaido, Jepang.

Bahan dan Metode Daerah studi Daerah penelitian meliputi periran dengangaris pantai 368 km dari Muroran ke Kikonai, Hokkaido, antara 40,67o sampai 42,58o N dan 140,25 E sampai 141,25o (Gambar 1). Daerah perairan tersebut dipengaruhi oleh masuknya dua massa air, yaitu Tsuguru air hangat dari musim gugur ke musim dingin, dan air Oyashio (massa air laut Subarctic) dari musim semi ke musim panas (Ohtani, 1971; Ohtani dan Kido, 1980; Takahashi et al., 2004). Suhu permukaan laut (SST) berkisar dari, <5oC pada Maret menjadi >20oC pada bulan Agustus / September, dan salinitas relatif stabil, dengan nilai berkisar 31-34 psu (Shimada et al., 2000). Tingkat klorofil sangat tinggi (>3 mg m-3) selama musim semi pada bulan Maret, tetapi relatif rendah (<1 mg m3

) selama musim panas (Radiarta dan Saitoh, 2008). Karakteristik di lingkungan perairan ini ini

memberikan keuntungan tersendiri untuk budidaya kerang (Mizuhopecten yessoensis) dan rumput laut.

Gambar 1. Lokasi penelitian

Identifikasi parameter dan akuisisi basis data spasial Parameter utama yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini dijelaskan pada Tabel 1. Data SST berasal dari citra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dengan resolusi spasial 1 km. Sedangkan untuk data konsentrasi Suspended Solid (SS) diperoleh dari citra SeaWiFS dengan 1-km resolusi. Semua citra SST dan SS dari semua musim digabungkan untuk menghasilkan peta komposit nilai rata-rata untuk masing-masing parameter (Perez et al., 2003). Gambar-gambar ini kemudian direklasifikasi sesuai dengan indeks kesesuaian. Sebuah peta batimetri dibuat dengan menggabungkan data dari Japan Oceanographic Data Center. Sebuah digital terrain model (DTM) yang digunakan untuk membuat peta kontur akhir (baik sebagai raster atau data vektor) untuk klasifikasi sesuai dengan indeks kesesuaian.

Tabel 1. Parameter oseanografi untuk pengembangan budidaya

Kedalaman air yang cocok untuk budidaya rumput laut Jepang tergantung pada panjang tali rumput laut yang digunakan dan rakit yang digunakan. Secara umum, tempat harus diseleksi dengan kedalaman air minimum adalah 15-25 m. Dalam analisis ini, untuk meminimalkan biaya operasi dan kesulitan dalam sistem mooring, kedalaman air lebih dari 60 m dieliminasi, sehingga dihasilkan di daerah sebesar 1541 km2. Semua data spasial di wilayah studi, yang diperoleh dari International Steering Committee for Global Mapping. Semua data yang digunakan dalam model GIS dibangun pada WGS 84 UTM Zona 54N. Data parameter dipersiapkan untuk diinput ke database GIS yang dibangun berdasarkan resolusi spasial 10 m 10 m (Perez et al., 2005; Radiarta et al., 2008).

Kerangka analisis dan konstruksi model Tingkat Kesesuaian (skor) untuk setiap parameter yang digunakan untuk budidaya rumput laut menggunakan teknik menggantung tertera pada Tabel 2. Nilai parameter yang diurutkan dari nomor 1 yang paling tidak cocok sampai nomor 8 yang paling cocok (Radiarta et al., 2008). Bobot parameter ditentukan dengan bedasarkan perbandingan sesuai dengan Analytical Hierarchy Process dari Saaty (1977) untuk pengambilan keputusan. Kepentingan relatif mereka diperoleh melalui kajian literatur dan pendapat para ahli (Tabel 3). Relatif parameter penting dievaluasi pada sembilan poin, skala kontinu-rating dari 1 (paling tidak penting) sampai 9 (yang paling penting). Pokok vektor eigen dari matriks perbandingan berpasangan dihitung untuk menghasilkan yang terbaik untuk bobot total 1 fit. Selain itu, rasio konsistensi matriks juga dihitung. Nilai ini menunjukkan kemungkinan bahwa penilaian secara acak. Sebuah rasio konsistensi 0,10 atau kurang dianggap diterima (Saaty, 1977; Banai-Kashani, 1989). Setelah nilai dan bobot dari data spasial telah ditentukan, prosedur evaluasi multikriteria (kombinasi linear tertimbang) tersedia dalam model fungsi pembangun ArcGIS telah diterapkan. analisis sensitivitas. Analisis sensitivitas dilakukan untuk meneliti bagaimana bobot parameter variabel waktu dapat mempengaruhi penentuan daerah pilihan. Batimetri dan kemiringan diasumsikan konstan dan dikecualikan.

Tabel 2. Penskoran untuk tiap parameter

Tabel 3. Matriks perbandingan untuk mengkaji tingkat kepentingan relatif dari tiap parameter untuk pengembangan budidaya Japanese kelp (angka menunjukkan peringkat baris relatif terhadap faktor kolom).

Banyak metode untuk analisis sensitivitas telah digunakan untuk model evaluasi (Hamby, 1994; Delgado dan Sendra, 2004). Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis sensitivitas lokal, karena memberikan informasi yang lebih tentang parameter yang mempengaruhi variabilitas dari model keluaran kesesuaian. Analisis dilakukan dengan memvariasikan setiap parameter dengan +5, +10, dan +20% dari nilai acuan, tetapi meninggalkan semua orang lain konstan. Peta kesesuaian untuk setiap interval nilai yang dihasilkan dan perubahan di daerah masing-masing nilai kesesuaian dan ditentukan setiap skema pembobotan.

Hasil Distribusi spasial kesesuaian Distribusi luas lahan yang sesuai untuk kegiatan budidaya Japanese kelp berdasarkan parameter yang digunakan dirangkum pada Tabel 4 dan diilustrasikan pada Gambar 2 dan 3. Berdasarkan parameter SST, 43,8% luasan sangat potensial untuk melakukan budidaya (skor 8), daerah ini sebagian besar terletak di barat (Gambar 2a). Untuk parameter SS, 67% dan 14% dari wilayah memiliki skor 8 dan 7, dan hanya 8% dari total wilayah memiliki skor rendah (jumlah skor 1, 2, dan 3). Daerah ini sebagian besar terletak di sepanjang pantai di dekat Sungai Yuurap di wilayah Yakumo (Gambar 2b). Berdasarkan batimetri, sekitar 22% dari luas potensial memiliki skor 8 (Tabel 4 dan Gambar 2c). Untuk karakteristik kemiringan, sebagian besar daerah potensial memiliki skor kesesuaian tinggi 8 (99%) dan 7 (0,9%; Gambar 2d). Untuk hasil overlay

dari semua parameter, model memprediksi bahwa 19% (292 km2) memiliki skor 8 (Tabel 4). Gambar 3 jelas menunjukkan bahwa kesesuaian lahan terdapat pada bagian barat dan selatan daerah penelitian. Tabel 4. Luas area (km2) dan persentase dari total luas wilayah (%) dengan nilai kesesuaian yang berbeda

Gambar 2. Peta kesesuaian lahan budadiaya untuk paremeter (a) SST, (b) SS, (c) batimetri, dan (d) kemiringan

Gambar 3. Peta kesesuaian hasil overlay semua parameter

Analisis sensitivitas Menurut Gittinger (1986), analisis sensitivitas (sensitivity analysis) dilakukan untuk meneliti kembali kelayakan suatu proyek, agar dapat melihat pengaruh yang akan terjadi akibat keadaan yang berubah atau ada suatu kesalahan dalam dasar perhitungan. Perubahan luasan dari model untuk setiap variabel dalam kilometer persegi untuk masing-masing skor kesesuaian diberikan dalam Tabel 5 dan Gambar 4. SS mempengaruhi model keseluruhan lebih kuat dari SST. Model ini lebih sensitif lebih rendah dari nilai yang lebih tinggi dari SS dan SST.

Tabel 5. Hasil analisis sensitivitas, yang menggambarkan perubahan di daerah kesesuaian (km2) berdasarkan variasi SPL dan SSS.

Gambar 4. Hasil analisis sensitivitas yang menggambarkan perbedaan di wilayah (km) di antara setiap faktor kepekaan dan model dasar untuk masing-masing nilai kesesuaian

Pembahasan Pengembangan budidaya rumput laut dipengaruhi oleh banyak aspek, termasuk lingkungan (fisik, biologi, dan kimia), serta faktor sosio-ekonomi (Scoggan et al., 1989; Largo dan Ohno, 1993; Kingzet et al., 2002). Model seleksi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini hanya difokuskan pada parameter fisik penting dari SST, SS, batimetri, dan kemiringan. Menggabungkan parameter ini melalui GIS memberikan analisis lebih relevan bagi para pengambil kebijakan dari yang didasarkan pada parameter individu saja. Tidak mengherankan,

daerah dengan potensi terbesar untuk budidaya rumput laut adalah daerah di mana memiliki nilai parameter yang sesuai di tiap paremeternya. Hasil dari model GIS hanya sebagian diverifikasi menggunakan produksi panen rumput laut (Hokkaido Central Fisheries Experiment Station, 2009). Gambar 5 menunjukkan total panen rumput laut untuk tiap daerah. Sebagai contoh, produksi tertinggi berada di daerah Minamikayabe yang meruapakan daerah dengan skor tinggi pada penelitian ini, sedangkan wilayah Kikonai paling tidak produktif memiliki karena memiliki skor rendah. Namun, hubungan ini sangat kompleks, karena produksi rumput laut di dalam Funka Bay umumnya lebih kecil karena prevalensi budidaya kerang di sana, bukan karena kurangnya daerah rumput laut yang sesuai (Miyazono, 2006). Pembobotan adalah salah satu tantangan utama dalam analisis situs-seleksi menggunakan prosedur evaluasi multikriteria. Sedapat mungkin, bobot harus konsisten dengan preferensi pembuat keputusan (Butler et al., 1997). Setelah bobot telah ditetapkan, analisis sensitivitas harus dilakukan untuk menentukan pengaruhnya pada hasil keseluruhan. Dalam penelitian ini, perubahan yang signifikan pada daerah yang cocok ditemukan ketika parameter bobot yang bervariasi. Model itu sangat sensitif terhadap SS, tetapi juga untuk SST. Data remote-sensing telah digunakan dalam kegiatan pemilihan lokasi budidaya selama lebih dari 20 tahun (Kapetsky et al, 1987; Kapetsky dan Anguilar-Manjarrez, 2007). Hasil analisa dengan teknik GIS modern yang bisa mengakibatkan alat manajemen yang efisien dan hemat biaya. Ada potensi besar untuk penginderaan jauh, data ocean colour dalam pengembangan budidaya laut (Grant et al, 2009.). Namun ada juga keterbatasan dan ketidakakuratan potensial. Sebagai contoh, algoritma untuk SS dalam model saat ini dikembangkan untuk perairan Korea (Ahn et al., 2001). Sebuah algoritma berdasarkan karakteristik air Hokkaido lokal dapat memberikan output model yang lebih akurat dan harus dikembangkan untuk penilaian di masa depan. Karakteristik lingkungan di wilayah studi bervariasi temporal, serta spasial. Karena variabilitas temporal yang bisa mempengaruhi pertumbuhan rumput laut (Radiarta et al., 2008), model ini dapat ditingkatkan lebih lanjut dengan memasukkan bulanan (Eastwood et al., 2001) atau musiman (Vincenzi et al., 2006) variabilitas parameter. Kemajuan lebih lanjut dalam GIS dan teknologi penginderaan jauh harus memberikan kontribusi pada pengembangan kerangka evaluasi generik untuk perencana pesisir dan pembuat kebijakan tertarik berkelanjutan budidaya

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ICES Journal of Marine Science (2011), 68(4), 773 780. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsq163

Aquaculture site selection for Japanese kelp (Laminaria japonica) in southern Hokkaido, Japan, using satellite remote sensing and GIS-based models
I Nyoman Radiarta 1,2*, Sei-Ichi Saitoh 1, and Hajime Yasui 3
Laboratory of Marine Bioresource and Environment Sensing, Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1 Minato-cho, Hakodate, Hokkaido 041-8611, Japan 2 Center for Aquaculture Research and Development, Agency for Marine Affair and Fisheries Research and Development, Jl. Ragunan 20, Pasar Minggu Jakarta Selatan 12540, Indonesia 3 Laboratory of Science and Technology on Fisheries Infrastructure System, Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1 Minato-cho, Hakodate, Hokkaido 041-8611, Japan *Corresponding Author: tel: + 81 138 40 8843; fax: + 81 138 40 8844; e-mail: radiarta@salmon.sh.hokudai.ac.jp; radiarta@yahoo.com. Radiarta, I N., Saitoh, S-I., and Yasui, H. 2011. Aquaculture site selection for Japanese kelp (Laminaria japonica) in southern Hokkaido, Japan, using satellite remote sensing and GIS-based models. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 773 780. Received 16 February 2010; accepted 19 July 2010; advance access publication 17 November 2010.
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Japanese kelp (Laminaria japonica) is an important species cultured and harvested in Japan. The most suitable areas for hanging culture in southern Hokkaido were determined using geographic information system (GIS) models and a multicriteria evaluation approach. Analyses of physical parameters (sea surface temperature and suspended solid from SeaWiFS and MODIS) and available bathymetric data indicated that some 74% (1139 km2) of the total potential area with bottom depths , 60 m had the two highest suitability scores. A local sensitivity analysis indicated that suspended solids were more important than temperature in affecting model output. This study demonstrates that GIS databases of different formats and sources can be used effectively to construct spatial models for kelp aquaculture.
Keywords: aquaculture site selection, GIS, Hokkaido, kelp, Laminaria japonica, remote sensing.

Introduction
More than 50 species of kelp have been reported worldwide, of which 20 are present in the Asia-Pacic region (Scoggan et al., 1989). Japanese kelp [Laminaria japonica (Ma-kombu)] grows in the temperate, cold-water zone and is native to the northwest Pacic coast, occurring as far south as 368N (Scoggan et al., 1989). Globally, it is one of the most valuable cultured and harvested seaweed species (Critchley, 1993). Landings have increased consistently during the past 17 years, from 2.5 106 t in the 1990s to more than 4.5 106 t in 2007 (FAO, 2009). China leads in Japanese kelp production, followed by Japan and Korea. In Japan, this species is mainly found along Hokkaido Island and the northeast coast of Honshu. Traditionally, kelps were harvested from wild stocks, but these are declining because of overharvesting. Recent advances in marine aquaculture techniques have contributed signicantly to kelp production. Currently, more than 36% of Japanese kelp production in Japan is from aquaculture (FAO, 2009), mainly in Hokkaido. The location and amount of aquaculture activity must balance the needs of conservation and economic return in a sustainable manner (GESAMP, 2001). Final determination of site suitability involves careful consideration of social, economic, and environment factors. Environmental suitability forms the basis for planning exercises and management interventions. With the development of the geographic information system (GIS) and availability of remote sensing data, it is now possible to
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select environmentally suitable areas rapidly and systematically. GIS has been widely used in aquaculture development, including site suitability determination, zoning, environmental impacts, planning, inventory and monitoring of aquaculture and the environment, and competitive exploitation of common areas (Arnold rez et al., 2005; Corner et al., et al., 2000; Bacher et al., 2003; Pe 2006; Longdill et al., 2008; Radiarta et al., 2008). Many studies have been done on aquaculture site selection (Arnold et al., 2000; rez et al., 2003; Radiarta et al., 2008), but few have used satellite Pe ocean-colour data to investigate site suitability for kelp aquaculture. This paper presents a quantitative evaluation of coastal areas using GIS-based physical models to identify suitable sites for Japanese kelp aquaculture development in southern Hokkaido, Japan.

Material and methods

Study area
The study area includes a 368-km coastline from Muroran to Kikonai, Hokkaido, between 41840 and 42835 N and 140815 and 141815 E (Figure 1). The oceanography of the region is affected by the inow of two water masses: Tsuguru warm water from autumn to winter, and Oyashio water (a Subarctic oceanic water mass) from spring to summer (Ohtani, 1971; Ohtani and Kido, 1980; Takahashi et al., 2004). Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) range from , 58C in March to . 208C in August/ September, and salinity is relatively stable, with values ranging

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Figure 1. Location of the study area in southern Hokkaido, Japan, including major depth contours and place names.

Table 1. Parameter requirements for Japanese kelp aquaculture development in the southern part of Hokkaido Island, Japan.
Parameters Sea surface temperature Suspended solids Bathymetry Slope Interpretation parameter Favourable temperature for kelp culture Indicates level of water clarity (turbidity) Favourable depth for hanging culture Favourable slope for hanging culture Optimum 9 128C ,2 g m 3 10 30 m , 108 Reference Scoggan et al. (1989), Fang et al. (1996), Suzuki et al. (2008) Otero and Siegel (2004), Nezline et al. (2005) Scoggan et al. (1989), Kawashima (1993), Fang et al. (1996) Bushing (1995), Bekkby et al. (2009)

from 31 to 34 psu (Shimada et al., 2000). Levels of chlorophyll a are very high ( . 3 mg m23) during the spring bloom in March, but relatively low ( , 1 mg m23) during summer (Radiarta and Saitoh, 2008). These unique characteristics provide a favourable environment, making the region one of the most important cultivation areas in Hokkaido for scallops (Mizuhopecten yessoensis) and kelp.

Identication of parameters and spatial database acquisition

The main factors (Table 1) used in this study are described below. SSTs were derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua sensor as level-2 data, with 1-km resolution, from the Distribution Active Archive Centre/ Goddard Space Flight Centre/National Aeronautic and Space

Administration (DAAC/GSFC/NASA; Savtchenko et al., 2004). In all, 287 images with good coverage were collected from June 2002 to August 2004. Suspended solid (SS) concentrations were determined from remotely sensed, normalized, water-leaving radiance at 555 nautical mile wavelength, nLw(555). Daily level-2 SeaWiFS data with 1-km resolution (February 1998 to August 2004) were obtained from DAAC/GSFC/NASA (Acker et al., 2002). The nLw (555) values were extracted from the daily SeaWiFS data. Monthly average (g m23) images of nLw (555) were produced following Ahns equation (Ahn et al., 2001): SS 3.18nLw(555)0.95. All SST and SS images from all seasons were combined to gen rez erate composite maps of average values for each parameter (Pe et al., 2003). These images were then reclassied according to suitability scores. A bathymetric map was prepared by combining a

Aquaculture site selection using remote sensing and GIS scanned hydrographic chart (Japan Hydrographic Department 1:150 000) and a digitized map of 500-m gridded bathymetric points (Japan Oceanographic Data Center, JODC, http://jdoss1 .jodc.go.jp/cgi-bin/1997/depth500_le). A digital terrain model (DTM) was used (triangulated irregular network; Hutchinson and Gallant, 2000) to create the nal contour map (either as raster or vector data) for classication according to the suitability criteria. Suitable water depth for Japanese kelp aquaculture depends on the length of kelp ropes used and the hanging-raft culture methods employed. In general, the sites should be selected where the minimum water depth is 15 25 m. In this analysis, to minimize operation costs and difculty in mooring systems, water depths . 60 m were excluded, resulting in a potential area of 1541 km2. The slope of the bottom (degrees) was obtained from the DTM of the bathymetry image using the ArcGIS 9.2 slope function that calculates the maximum rate change between each cell and its neighbours. All spatial data were registered to the study areas coastline, obtained from the International Steering Committee for Global Mapping (http://www.iscgm.org/cgi-bin/fswiki/wiki.cgi). All data used in the GIS models were built on a WGS 84 UTM Zone 54 North coordinate system. Data on the above parameters prepared for input to the GIS database were built based on a rez et al., 2005; Radiarta et al., 2008). 10 m 10 m pixel size (Pe

775 Analytical framework and model construction

Suitability levels (scores) for each parameter were dened according to requirements for kelp aquaculture using the hanging technique (Table 2). Parameter values were ranked and classied from 1 (least suitable) to 8 (most suitable) following Radiarta et al. (2008). Parameter weights were determined by pairwise comparisons according to the Analytical Hierarchy Process of Saaty (1977) for decision-making. Their relative importance was obtained through a literature review and experts opinions (Table 3). Relative parameter importance was evaluated on a ninepoint, continuous-rating scale from 1 (least important) to 9 (most important). The principal eigenvector of the pairwise comparison matrix was computed to produce the best t for a total weighting of 1. In addition, the consistency ratio of the matrix was also calculated. This value indicates the probability that ratings were randomly assigned. A consistency ratio of 0.10 or less was considered to be acceptable (Saaty, 1977; Banai-Kashani, 1989). Once the scores and weights of the spatial data had been determined, a multicriteria evaluation procedure (weighted linear combination) available in the ArcGIS model builder function was applied.

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Sensitivity analysis
A sensitivity analysis was done to examine how the weighting of time-variable parameters could affect the determination of

Table 2. Physical factor requirements and suitability scores for Japanese kelp aquaculture-site selection in southern Hokkaido, Japan.
Suitability rating and score Parameter Sea surface temperature (8C) Bathymetry (m) Suspended solids (g m 3) Slope (8) 8 1011 1025 , 1.6 ,5 7 9 10 or 11 12 9 10 or 25 30 1.6 2.0 5 10 6 8 9 or 1213 8 9 or 3035 2.02.3 1015 5 7 8 or 13 14 7 8 or 35 40 2.3 2.6 15 18 4 6 7 or 1415 6 7 or 4045 2.62.9 1820 3 5 6 or 15 16 5 6 or 45 50 2.9 3.5 20 23 2 4 5 or 1617 4 5 or 5060 3.54.0 23 25 1 , 4 or . 17 . 60 or , 4 . 4.0 . 25

Table 3. Pairwise comparison matrix for assessing the relative importance of parameters for Japanese kelp aquaculture development in the southern part of Hokkaido Island, Japan (numbers indicate the rating of row relative to column factors).
Parameter Sea surface temperature Suspended solids Bathymetry Slope Sea surface temperature 1 1 /2 1 /3 1 /4 Suspended solids 2 1 1/2 1/3 Bathymetry 3 2 1 1/2 Slope 4 3 2 1 Weight 0.46 0.28 0.16 0.10

Consistency ratio (CR) 0.015, consistency is acceptable.

Table 4. Area (km2) and percentage of total area (%) with different suitability scores for Japanese kelp aquaculture development in the southern part of Hokkaido Island, Japan, with depths , 60 m.
Suitability score 1 Physical model of site selection Sea surface temperature Suspended solids Bathymetry Slope Overall model km2 0.0 25.0 45.0 0.0 0.0 % 0.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 km2 0.0 29.0 391.0 0.0 0.0 2 % 0.0 2.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 km2 3.0 56.0 182.0 0.0 1.0 3 % 0.2 4.0 12.0 0.0 0.1 km2 16.0 43.0 170.0 0.0 14.0 4 % 1.0 3.0 11.0 0.0 0.9 km2 278.0 46.0 145.0 0.0 64.0 5 % 18.0 3.0 10.0 0.0 4.0 km2 98.0 79.0 134.0 0.2 323.0 6 % 6.5 5.0 9.0 0.1 21.0 km2 402.0 223.0 129.0 10.5 847.0 7 % 26.0 14.0 8.0 0.9 55.0 8 km2 744.0 1 040.0 345.0 1 530.0 292.0 % 43.8 67.0 22.0 99.0 19.0

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preferred areas. Bathymetry and slope were assumed to be temporally constant and excluded. Many methods for sensitivity analysis have been used for model evaluations (Hamby, 1994; Delgado and Sendra, 2004). This study used a local sensitivity analysis, because it provides the most information about parameters inuencing the

I N. Radiarta et al. variability of the suitability model output. The analysis was conducted by varying each parameter by + 5, + 10, and + 20% of the reference values, but leaving all others constant. Suitability maps for every interval value were generated and the change in area for each suitability score and every weighting scheme determined.

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Figure 2. Suitability maps for environmental criteria used in physical modelling, masked to exclude depths . 60 m, for Japanese kelp aquaculture: (a) SST, (b) SSs, (c) bathymetry, and (d) slope.

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Figure 3. Overall site selection map for combined environmental criteria, depths , 60 m, for Japanese kelp aquaculture development in southern Hokkaido, Japan.

Results
Spatial distribution of suitability
The classications of surface areas for each parameter are summarized in Table 4, and the corresponding spatial distributions of suitability sites are illustrated in Figures 2 and 3. Based on SST, 43.8% of the potential area scored 8 (Table 4). These areas were mostly located in the west (Figure 2a). Regarding SS, 67 and 14% of the area had scores of 8 and 7, respectively. Only 8% of the area had low scores (sum of scores 1, 2, and 3). These areas were mostly located along the coastline near the Yuurap River in the Yakumo region (Figure 2b). Based on water depth, some 22% of the potential area scored 8 (Table 4 and Figure 2c). For slope characteristics, most of the potential area had high suitability scores of 8 (99%) and 7 (0.9%; Figure 2d). For all parameters combined, the model predicted that 19% (292 km2) of the potential area had a score of 8 (Table 4). Figure 3 clearly highlights the suitability of the western and southern part of the study area, because of the high quality of water properties, appropriate water depths, and slope Table 5. Results of local sensitivity analysis, illustrating the change in suitability areas (km2) as SSTs and SSs are varied by + 5, + 10, and + 20% from the baseline model.
Parameter 1 Baseline model 0 Sea surface temperature + 20 0 + 10 0 +5 0 25 0 2 10 0 2 20 0 Suspended solids + 20 0 + 10 0 +5 0 25 0 2 10 0 2 20 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 14 11 11 11 13 15 26 32 16 13 11 11 9 5 64 50 60 56 65 68 70 73 79 74 114 99 140 6 323 369 363 323 323 285 470 269 292 318 495 502 518 7 847 779 797 822 918 880 774 894 861 843 681 689 570 8 292 331 309 328 221 292 200 272 292 292 239 239 303

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Figure 4. Results of sensitivity analysis illustrating differences in area (km2) between each sensitivity factor and the baseline model for each of the suitability scores. characteristics. Approximately 55% of the potential area scored 7, 26% scored mid-scale (4 6), and , 1% scored 3. No area scored either 1 or 2 in suitability.

Sensitivity analysis
Changes from the baseline model for each of the variables in square kilometres for each suitability score are given in Table 5 and Figure 4. SS affected the overall model more strongly than SST. The model was more sensitive to lower than higher values of SS and SST.

Discussion
Development of kelp aquaculture is affected by many aspects, including environmental (physical, biological, and chemical), as well as socio-economic factors (Scoggan et al., 1989; Largo and Ohno, 1993; Kingzet et al., 2002). The site-selection model used in this study only focused on the important physical parameters of SST, SS, bathymetry, and slope. Combining these parameters through GIS provides a more relevant analysis for decision-makers than the one based on individual parameters alone. Not surprisingly, areas with the greatest potential for kelp culture are those where favourable parameter scores coincide. The results of the GIS model could be only partly veried using kelp landing production (Hokkaido Central Fisheries Experiment Station, 2009). Figures 3 and 5 demonstrate that scores tend to reect kelp production. For example, the highest production was in the high-scoring Minamikayabe area, whereas the least productive Kikonai area had low scores. However, this relationship is complex, because kelp production inside Funka Bay is generally smaller because of the prevalence of scallop aquaculture there, rather than lack of suitable kelp areas (Miyazono, 2006). Weighting is one of the primary challenges in site-selection analyses using multicriteria evaluation procedures. To the extent possible, weightings should be consistent with decision-maker preferences (Butler et al., 1997). Once weights have been assigned, a sensitivity analysis should be conducted to determine their inuence on the overall results. In this study, signicant changes in

Figure 5. Kelp landings for southern Hokkaido, Japan, 1991 2006. suitable areas were found when parameter weights were varied. The model was particularly sensitive to SS, but also to SST. Remote-sensing data have been used in aquaculture site selection for more than 20 years (Kapetsky et al., 1987; Kapetsky and Anguilar-Manjarrez, 2007). Their analysis with modern GIS techniques could result in an efcient and cost-effective management tool. There is great potential for remotely sensed, ocean-colour data in marine aquaculture development (Grant et al., 2009); however, there are also limitations and potential inaccuracies. For example, the algorithm for SS in the current model was developed for Korean waters (Ahn et al., 2001). An algorithm based on local Hokkaido water characteristics could provide more accurate model output and it should be developed for future assessments. Environmental characteristics in the study region vary temporally, as well as spatially. Because temporal variability could inuence kelp growth (Radiarta et al., 2008), the model could be improved further by including monthly (Eastwood et al., 2001) or seasonal (Vincenzi et al., 2006) variability of parameters. Further progress in GIS and remote-sensing technology should contribute to the

Aquaculture site selection using remote sensing and GIS development of a generic evaluation framework for coastal planners and policy-makers interested in sustainable aquaculture.

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Acknowledgements
We thank the Distribution Active Archive Center at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for the production and distribution of the SeaWiFS and MODIS data. The study was supported by the 2010 Hakodate Marine Bio Industrial Cluster Project of the Regional Innovation Cluster Program (formerly the Knowledge Cluster Program), Grants-in-Aid of University and Society Collaboration, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan. Comments by two anonymous reviewers contributed greatly to improving the manuscript.

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