MODUL PERKULIAHAN

Teknik Proyeksi Bisnis

(Forecasting)

Oleh:
H. SETYABUDI INDARTONO, MM

PROGRAM STUDI MANAGEMENT

FAKULTAS ILMU SOSIAL
UNIVERSITAS NEGERI YOGYAKARTA
2006

DAFTAR ISI
Pengantar

Smooting
Dekomposisi
Regresi

PERSEMBAHAN

Guru, insirator, motivator .....

Yang secara ikhlas menjadi energizer
Mas Bowo Trustco Jakarta
Para asatidz, masayikh ....
Yang telah memberikan arahan, panduan di jalan Perjuangan
Rekan-rekan Tim Trustco se Indonesia, juga Malaysia
Para Mujahid Nasrul Fikroh, tatmiyatul kafaah dan tidak lupa kasbul
maisyah
Special for You, Jogja Team
Iwan , Setiya, Junni, Choirul, Fadli,
Tak lupa tim Unit Ngaglik 2
Istri Tercinta,
Yayuk Soraya
Anak-anak,
Aiman Hilmi Asaduddin
Rofiq Wafi Muhammad
Muhammad Haisan Haedar

PENGANTAR
-

Teknik proyeksi Bisnis merupakan suatu cara atau pendekatan untuk

menentukan ramalan (perkiraan) mengenai sesuatu di masa yang
akan datang.

Kelangsungan bisnis dipengaruhi oleh faktor lingkungan kontrol dan

sosial, lingkungan teknologi dan lingkungan ekonomi mikro

Penentuan Akurasi forcasting

1. Data yang relevan: Jenis, Sifat dan sumber, data kualitatif dan
kuntitatif
2. Teknik peramalan: kualitatif dan kuantitatif
1. Teknik Statistik: Smothing, dekomposisi, box jenkins
2. Teknik deterministik: regresi sederhana, regresi berganda,
auto regresi, model input output
3. Pemilihan teknik peramalan
1. Pola atau karakteristik
2. Jangka waktu
3. Biaya
4. Tingkat akurasi

SMOOTHING METHOD
Moving Average

Single Moving Average

Ft = Xt + Xt-1 + Xt-2 .+ Xt-n+1

N
Karakteristik Single Moving Average
Untuk menentukan ramalan pada periode yang akan datan memerlukan data
historis selama jangka waktu tertentu
Semakin panjang jangka waktu average semakin halus efek pelicinannya

Forecasting error
Error = Riil Ramalan
Mean Absolut Error
= | Xt Ft|
N
Mean Square Error
= (Xt Ft)2
N
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Bulan

Penjualan

January
February
March
April
May
June
July

100
120
110
105
115
125
125

Forecast

110.0
115.0
107.5
110.0
120.0

2 Bulanan
Error
Abs

0.0
-10.0
7.5
15.0
5.0

0.0
10.0
7.5
15.0
5.0

Square

0.0
100.0
56.3
225.0
25.0

8
9
10
11
12

August
September
October
November
December

115
110
120
125
115
Jumlah

125.0
120.0
112.5
115.0
122.5
1157.5

-10.0
-10.0
7.5
10.0
-7.5
7.5
Mean

10.0
10.0
7.5
10.0
7.5
82.5
8.3

100.0
100.0
56.3
100.0
56.3
818.8
81.9

Double Moving Average

Menghitung moving average bergerak pertama dengan diberi simbol

StI, yang dihitung dari data historis.
Menghitung moving average bergerak kedua dengan diberi simbol
StII, yang dihitung dari data bergerak pertama
Menentukan besarnya nilai konstanta at=2SI -SII
Menentukan besarnya slope bt = 2/(V -1) x (SI-SII)
V = Moving
Menentukan besarnya forcasting
Ft + m = a +b(m)
m = selisih tahun forecast

Double Moving Average

Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

moving
Bulan
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

5
Penjualan
1300
1360
1400
1320
1290
1470
1350
1415
1530
1410
1520
1490

II

1334.00
1368.00
1366.00
1369.00
1411.00
1435.00
1445.00
1473.00

1369.60
1389.80
1405.20
1426.60

Konstanta

1452.40
1480.20
1484.80
1519.40

Sloop

20.70
22.60
19.90
23.20

forecast

Error

1390.30
1412.40
1425.10
1449.80

139.70
-2.40
94.90
40.20
Mean

Absolut

139.70
2.40
94.90
40.20
277.20
69.30

Square

19516.09
5.76
9006.01
1616.04
30143.90
7535.98

Soal Latihan
Carilah Forecast untuk bulan januari tahun berikutnya. Dan berapa Mean
absolute error dan mean square errornya.
Data penjualan perusahaan A.
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Bulan
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Penjualan
1050
1305
1100
1000
975
1230
1250
1200
1350
1100
1050
1050

Carilah Forecast untuk bulan trimester ke tigabelas. Dan berapa Mean

absolute error dan mean square errornya.
keuntungan bisnis perusahaan B.
Trimester
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Profit
738
857
778
729
847
829
972
927
837
904
627
498

Exponential Smoothing

Single ExponentialSmooting
Pemberian bobot data baru a, data lama (1- ), data yang lebih lama
(1- )2
Besarnnya adalah antara 0 dan 1
-

Ft+1 = Xt + (1-)Ft

Ft+1 = Ft + (XtFt)

(XtFt) merupakan forecast error pada periode t

Dalam melakukan peramalan, besarnya a ditentukan secara trial error
sampai mendapatkan forecast error terkecil

Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Bulan
January
February
Maret
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Penjualan
1300
1360
1400
1320
1300
1450
1325
1400
1500
1450
1500
1400

Forecast

Error

1300.0
1324.60
1355.51
1340.95
1324.16
1375.76
1354.95
1373.42
1425.32
1435.44
1461.91

60.0
75.4
-35.5
-41.0
125.8
-50.8
45.1
126.6
24.7
64.6
-61.9

Abs
60.0
75.4
35.5
41.0
125.8
50.8
45.1
126.6
24.7
64.6
61.9
711.3

Square
3600.0
5685.2
1261.2
1677.2
15835.1
2576.2
2029.9
16023.0
609.3
4168.4
3832.6
57297.9

Double Exponential Smooting

Dalam melakukan peramalan, dimulai dengan menentukan

besarnya yang ditentukan secara trial error
Menentukan smooting pertama St

St = Xt + (1-) St-1
Menentukan smooting kedua St
St = St + (1-) St-1
Menentukan besarnya konstanta at
t = 2 St - St
Menentukan besarnya slope bt
bt = (St - St)
1-
Menentukan besarnya forecast
Ft + m = at +bt (m)

10

Double Exponential Smooting

I

II

=Periode
1

Bulan
January

Unit
1300

S
1300

S
1300

Konstanta

Sloop

forecast

Error

Absolut

Square

February

1360

1306.0

1300.6

1311.4

0.6

1300.0

60.00

60.00

3,600

March

1400

1315.4

1302.1

1328.72

1.48

1312.0

88.00

88.00

7,744

April

1320

1315.9

1303.5

1328.262

1.38

1330.2

-10.20

10.20

104

May

1290

1313.3

1304.4

1322.108

0.98

1329.6

-39.64

39.64

1,571

June

1470

1328.9

1306.9

1351.003

2.45

1323.1

146.91

146.91

21,583

July

1350

1331.1

1309.3

1352.797

2.42

1353.5

-3.45

3.45

August

1415

1339.4

1312.3

1366.573

3.01

1355.2

59.79

59.79

3,574

September

1530

1358.5

1316.9

1400.065

4.62

1369.6

160.41

160.41

25,732

10

October

1410

1363.7

1321.6

1405.694

4.67

1404.7

5.32

5.32

11

November

1520

1379.3

1327.4

1431.196

5.77

1410.4

109.63

109.63

12,020

12

December

1490

1390.4

1333.7

1447.04

6.30

1437.0

53.04

53.04

2,813

736.39

78,782

12

28

11

Soal Latihan
Carilah Forecast untuk bulan januari tahun berikutnya. Dan berapa nilai
untuk mendapatkan Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn terkecil
serta berapa nilai Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn
Data penjualan perusahaan A.
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Bulan
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Penjualan
1050
1305
1100
1000
975
1230
1250
1200
1350
1100
1050
1050

Carilah Forecast untuk bulan trimester ke tigabelas. Dan berapa nilai

untuk mendapatkan Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn terke cil
serta berapa nilai Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn
keuntungan bisnis perusahaan B.
Trimester
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Profit
738
857
778
729
847
829
972
927
837
904
627
498

12

DECOMPOSITION METHOD
TREND

Tren adalah rata-rata perubahan dalam jangka panjang

Tren Linier
Trend Parabolik
Tran eksponensial

TREND LINIER BEBAS

Trend Bebas yaitu penarikan garis trend tanpa menggunakan formula
matematis yaitu digunakan dengan metoda bebas, namun bukan berarti
tanpa pertimbangan.

TREND SETENGAH RATA -RATA

Data yang ada dibagi dua kelompok dengan jumlah yang sama
Tahun dasar ada pada tengh -tengah kelompik I
Pada masing-masing kelompok ditentukan nilai X, semitotal dan
semi average
Jumlah nilai X pada kelompok I harus nol
Proyeksi di tahun yang akan datang tergantung berapa besarnya
nilai X

13

Nilai trend dihitung dengan rumus

Y = a + bX

a = rata-rata kelompok I
b = (rata-rata kelompok II rata-rata kelompok I)/n
n = Jumlah data masing -masing kelompok
X = nilai yang ditentukan berdasarkan tahun dasar

Trend Setengah Rata-rata (data ganjil)

Tahun

1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

120
125
125
160
140
160

-1
0
1
2
3
4

a=
b=

123.33
153.33

123.33

Persamaan Tren
Y=a+bX
Y=a+bX
123.33

Semitotal

Semi
avrg

370

123.3333

460

153.3333

10

10

Trend Setengah Rata-rata (data ganjil)

Tahun

1994
1995
1996
1997
1997
1998
1999
2000

120
125
130
145
145
150
160
165

-3
-1
1
3
3
5
7
9

a=
b=

130.00
155.00
2

130.00
4

Semitotal

Semi
avrg

520

130.00

620

155.00

3.125

14

Persamaan Tren
Y=a+bX
Y=a+bX
130.00

3.125

TREND DENGAN METODE KUADRAT TERKECIL (LE AST SQUARE)

Data Ganjil
Y = a + bX
a = Y/n
a = YX/X2
a = Y/n
b = XY/X2
Tahun
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Jumlah

Y
125
160
140
160
175
760

X
-2
-1
0
1
2
0

XY
-250
-160
0
160
350
100

a=

760
5

152

b=

100
10

10

Persamaan Tren
Y=a+bX
Y=a+bX
152

10

X
4
1
0
1
4
10

Forecast
Tahun
2005
2009

th ke (X)
4
8

Y=a+
bX
192.00
232.00

15

Data Genap
Tahun
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Jumlah

Y
120
125
125
160
140
160
175
175
1180

a=

1180
8

X
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
0
=

b=

720 =
168
Persamaan Tren
Y=a+bX
Y=a+
148
bX

XY
-840
-625
-375
-160
140
480
875
1225
720

X
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
168

148

4.3

4.29

TREND MOMENT
Y = a + bX
Y = n.a + Xb
YX = X.a /X2.b
2

Tahun
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

Y
125
160
140
160
175

X
0
1
2
3
4

XY
0
160
280
480
700

X
0
1
4
9
16

Jumlah

760

10

1620

30

760
1620

=
=

1520 =
1620 =
100 =
b =
a =
persamaan
Y=

5
10

a+
a+

10
30

b
b

10
10

a+
a+

20
30
10

b
b
b

10.0

10.0
132
132

16

MENGUBAH BENTUK PERS AMAAN TREN

Merubah titik origin
Y=
132 +
10 X
titik awal pada tahun
Perubahan titik pada
Y=
132 +
10 X
Y=
132 +
10
3
Y=
162
Persamaan baru
Y=
162 +
10 X
Tren rata-rata perbulanan
Y=
132 +
10 X
12
12
Y=
11 +
0.83 X
Tren rata-rata per triwulanan
Y=
162 +
10 X
4
4
Y=
41 +
2.5 X

1999
2002

Tren rata-rata bulanan

Y=
132 + 10 X
2
12
12
Y=
11 +
0.07
Tren rata-rata triwulanan
Y=
132 + 10 X
2
4
4
Y=
33 +
0.63

TREND PARABOLIK
Y = a + bX + cX 2
Y = n.a + cX2
YX = bX2
X2Y = aX2 + cX4

Tahun
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jumlah

Y
120
130
140
120
150
140
130
140
130
120
1320

X
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
0

XY
-1080
-910
-700
-360
-150
140
390
700
910
1080
20

X
81
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
81
330

XY
9720
6370
3500
1080
150
140
1170
3500
6370
9720
41720

X
6561
2401
625
81
1
1
81
625
2401
6561
19338

17

160
Series1
150

Poly. (Series1)

140
130
120
110
100
1994

1996

1998

1,320

10

20

330

41,720

330

41,720

1,320

2000

2002

330

19,338

330

19,338

10

330

41,720

330

19,338

43,560

330

10,890

- 1,840

8,448

-0.2

139

0.06

139

0.06

0.22

2004

2006

18

TREND EKSPONENSIAL
Y = a + bx
Log Y = Log a + X Log b
Log a = Log Y
n
Log b = X Log Y
X2
Tahun
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jumlah

Log a =

Log b =

Y
1250
1300
1410
1250
1200
1450
1300
1430
1400
1350
13340

Log Y
3.10
3.11
3.15
3.10
3.08
3.16
3.11
3.16
3.15
3.13
31.24

Log Y
n
X Log
Y
n

X
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
0

81
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
81
330

31.24
10

3.1243

0.69
330

0.0021

0.0021

Log Y = Log a + Log b. X

Log Y =
3.1243 +

X log Y
-27.87
-21.80
-15.75
-9.29
-3.08
3.16
9.34
15.78
22.02
28.17
0.690

VARIASI MUSIM
Metode Rata-rata Sederhana
1. Menentukan penjualan rata -rata tiap triwulan pada tahun -tahun
data yang diketahui
2. Mengurangi penjualan rata -rata tersebut dengan akumulasi nilai b
(Sloop)
3. Menentukan Indeks Musiman =
(rata-rata-b komulatif) triwulan tahun tertentu
(rerata-b komulatif) triwulan seluruh tahun

19

Tahun
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Jumlah
a=

Y
195
207
210
215
225
230
236
1518

1518
7

b=

184
28

X
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
0

XY
-585
-414
-210
0
225
460
708
184

X
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
28

216.9

Persamaan Tren
Y=a+bX
Y = a + b X 216.9
Origin 1996
Y = a + b X 217
4
Y=a+bX
54

+
+

6.57

6.57 X
2
4
0.41

Rata-rata sederhana
1993
TW
TW
TW
TW

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

1
2
3
4

50
60
45
40

55
63
47
43

53
59
50
48

49
63
46
55

56
64
55
50

51
70
52
57

54
67
59
56

Jumlah
rerata

195
48.8

208
52

210
52.5

213
53.3

225
56.3

230
57.5

236
59

rata2
52.6
63.7
50.6
49.9

B Kum
0.41
0.82
1.23
1.64

Rata2 b kum
52.16
62.89
49.34
48.21
212.61
53.15

VARIASI MUSIM

Metode presentase terhadap tren

1. Menyajikan data penjualan riil
2. Menyajikan data tren penjualan

20

Index
(%)
99%
120%
95%
94%

3. Menghitung prosentase penjualan riil terhadap tren penjualan

4. Mencari median persentase tersebut pada tiap triwulan
5. Menentukan indeks musiman

METODE PRESENTASE TE RHADAP TREN

1. Menyajikan data penjualan riil
1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

50
60
45
40

55
63
47
43

53
59
50
48

49
63
46
55

56
64
55
50

51
70
52
57

54
67
59
56

TW
TW
TW
TW

1
2
3
4

Y=

217
+
6.57 X
Penjualan Origin tahun 1996
54.2
+
0.41 X
Penjualan triwulan origin triwulan II -III tahun 1996

Y=

Origin tengah tahun 1996

1993 1994
TW
TW
TW
TW

1
2
3
4

-13.5
-12.5
-11.5
-10.5

-9.5
-8.5
-7.5
-6.5

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

-5.5
-4.5
-3.5
-2.5

-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5

2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5

6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5

10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5

perubahan origin ke TW 1 tahun 1997

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
TW
TW
TW
TW

1
2
3
4

-16
-15
-14
-13

-12
-11
-10
-9

-8
-7
-6
-5

-4
-3
-2
-1

0
1
2
3

1998

1999

4
5
6
7

8
9
10
11

Y=

54.2 +
0.41 X
Penjualan triwulan origin triwulan II -III tahun 1996
perubahan ke origin TW 1 1997
Y=
54.2 +
0.41
2.5
Y=
54.2 +
1.03
Y=
55.2
Persamaan tren baru
Y=
55.2 +
0.41 X

21

Nilai tren penjualan triwulan 1993 -1999

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

1998

1999

TW
TW
TW
TW

55.2
55.7
56.1
56.5

56.9
57.3
57.7
58.1

58.5
58.9
59.3
59.8

Prosentase penjualan riil terhadap tren

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

1998

1999

TW
TW
TW
TW

1
2
3
4

1
2
3
4

48.7
49.1
49.5
49.9

50.3
50.7
51.1
51.5

52.0
52.4
52.8
53.2

53.6
54.0
54.4
54.8

103%

109%

102%

91%

101%

90%

92%

122%

124%

113%

117%

115%

122%

114%

91%

92%

95%

85%

98%

90%

99%

80%

83%

90%

100%

89%

98%

94%

Median
TW
TW
TW
TW

1
2
3
4

90%

91%

92%

101%

102%

103%

109%

113%

114%

115%

117%

122%

122%

124%

85%

90%

91%

92%

95%

98%

99%

80%

83%

89%

90%

94%

98%

100%

400%

Nilai rata-rata median

=
100
400.2
4

Indeks Musim
Nilai
TW
TW
TW
TW

1
2
3
4

101%

101%

117%

117%

92%

92%

90%

90%

22

Variasi Musim
Metode persetase terhadap rata -rata bergerak
1. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama satu tahun (4 TW) dan
letakkan pada pertengahan data
2. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama dua tahun (4TW) dan letakkan
pada pertengahan data
3. Menghitung rata-rata bergerak dengan membagi hasil dari no. 2
dengan 8 TW
4. Menghitung presentase data riil terhadap rata -rata bergerak
5. Menentukan median persentase tersebut
6. Menentukan indeks musim

Metode persetase terhadap rata -rata bergerak

1. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama satu tahun (4 TW) dan letakkan
pada pertengahan data
2. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama dua tahun (4TW) dan letakkan
pada pertengahan data
3. Menghitung rata-rata bergerak dengan membagi hasil dari no. 2
dengan 8 TW
4. Menghitung presentase data riil terhadap rata -rata bergerak
Penjualan

1993

1994

1995

1996

TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

50
60
45
40
55
63
47
43
53
59
50
48
49
63
46
55

jml bergerak
4TW

195
200
203
205
208
206
202
205
210
206
210
206
213
220
221

Jml bergerak 2
th

395
403
408
413
414
408
407
415
416
416
416
419
433
441

rata-rata
bergerak

49
50
51
52
52
51
51
52
52
52
52
52
54
55

% penjualan thd
MOVA

91%
79%
108%
122%
91%
84%
104%
114%
96%
92%
94%
120%
85%
100%

23

TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW

1997

1998

1999

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

56
64
55
50
51
70
52
57
54
67
59
56

230
225
220
226
223
230
233
230
237
236

451
455
445
446
449
453
463
463
467
473

56
57
56
56
56
57
58
58
58
59

99%
113%
99%
90%
91%
124%
90%
98%
93%
113%

Variasi Musim
Metode persetase terhadap rata -rata bergerak

Menentukan median persentase tersebut

Menentukan indeks musim

MEDIAN

TW
TW
TW
TW

1
2
3
4

0%
0%
0%
0%

91%
113%
85%
79%

93%
113%
90%
84%

94%
114%
91%
90%

99%
120%
91%
92%

104%
122%
96%
98%

108%
124%
99%
100%

97%
117%
91%
91%
99%

Indeks
Musim

97%
117%
91%
91%

24

Variasi SIKLIS

1. Menyusun Penjualan Riil per teriwulan

2. Menyusun tren penjualan triwulan (T)
3. Menyusun indeks musim (M)
4. Menentukan nilai normal (TxM)
5. Menentukan perubahan Siklis (S) dan random (R); penjualan riil /
nilai normal
6. Menentukan jumlah tertim bang bergerak (weighted moving total)

1999

rata-rata
bergerak

1998

jumlah
bergerak

1997

Variasi S&R

1996

TxM

1995

indek Musim
(M)

1994

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Tren (T)

1993

TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW
TW

Penjualan

7. Menentukan indeks siklis (rata -rata tertimbang)

50
60
45
40
55
63
47
43
53
59
50
48
49
63
46
55
56
64
55
50
51
70
52
57
54
67
59
56

48.67
49.08
49.49
49.90
50.31
50.72
51.13
51.54
51.96
52.37
52.78
53.19
53.60
54.01
54.42
54.83
55.24
55.65
56.06
56.47
56.88
57.29
57.71
58.12
58.53
58.94
59.35
59.76

103%
122%
91%
80%
109%
124%
92%
83%
102%
113%
95%
90%
91%
117%
85%
100%
101%
115%
98%
89%
90%
122%
90%
98%
92%
114%
99%
94%

50
60
45
40
55
63
47
43
53
59
50
48
49
63
46
55
56
64
55
50
51
70
52
57
54
67
59
56

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
400

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

25

TW
TW
TW
TW

1
2
3
4

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

48.67
49.08
49.49
49.90

50.31
50.72
51.13
51.54

51.96
52.37
52.78
53.19

53.60
54.01
54.42
54.83
216.9

55.24
55.65
56.06
56.47

56.88
57.29
57.71
58.12

58.53
58.94
59.35
59.76

Indeks
Musim
99%
100%
100%
101%

Nilai rata-rata median

=
54.21
216.9
4

Variasi RANDOM

Variasi random merupakan suatu hal yang terjadi secara tiba -tiba dan
sukar diperkirkan
Latihan
Berapa prediksi biaya pada tahunberikutnya untuk dua perusahaan di
bawah.
Tahun
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

A
1867
1879
1786
1098
1987
1697
1769
1999
1768
1987
1097
1679

B
2801
2819
2679
1647
2981
2546
2654
2999
2652
2981
1646
2519

Hitunglah dengan metode:

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Tren Linier
Least Square
Tren Momen
Tren prabolik
Tren Exponensial

26

Dengan metode tren momen dan least square, Carilah perkiraan

penjualan tahun bulan januari tahun berikutnya dari data penjualan:
Tahun
jan
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec

Sale
1,350
1,225
1,475
1,530
1,625
1,500
1,560
1,640
1,475
1,575
1,640
1,700

27

REGRESI
Regresi Sederhana
Tahun
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Jumlah

XY

1,240

690

855,600

476,100

1,537,600

1,264

1,310

725

949,750

525,625

1,716,100

1,326

1,270

710

901,700

504,100

1,612,900

1,299

1,360

740

1,006,400

547,600

1,849,600

1,352

1,375

750

1,031,250

562,500

1,890,625

1,370

1,320

700

924,000

490,000

1,742,400

1,281

1,290

695

896,550

483,025

1,664,100

1,272

9,165

5,010

6,565,250

3,588,950

12,013,325

9,165

Y-Y

(Y-Y)

-24

555

-16

250

-29

848

57

23

39

1,494

18

308

3,534

Standar eror
2
Se = qsrt ((Y-Y) /(n-2))
Se=
26.588

Korelasi r = n XY - X.Y
2

sqrt (nX -(X) . (ny -(Y) )

0.86
Uji a
Sa = Se/sqrt (n)
Sa =
10.049
ta = a/Sa
ta =
3.64
t tabel

ta

(,n-2)
(0.05, 7-2)
(0.05,5)
>
a signifikan

2.721

t tabel

28

Uji b
Sb = Se/sqrt (xi)
xi = Xi2-1/n(xi)(xi)
xi =
Sb =
tb = b/Sb
tb =
t tabel

tb

3,221
0.47

3.80
(,n-2)
(0.05, 7-2)
(0.05,5)

2.721

t
tabel
>
b signifikan

Uji r
2
tr = r sqrt(n-2)/sqrt(1-r )
tr =
3.80
t tabel
(,n-2)
(0.05, 7-2)
(0.05,5)
tr

2.721

>
t tabel
r signifikan

29

Auto Regresi
Tahun

X1

X2

1995

12

1.4

10

1996

15

1.3

11

1997

1.9

1998

16

1.2

13

1999

20

1.1

19

X1

144

225

49

256

400

Jumlah
70
7
62 1,074
Y = n.a + b1. X1+ b2 X2
2
X1Y = aX1 + b1 X1 + b2 X1X2

10

X1.Y

X2.Y

100

16.8

120

121

19.5

165

13.3

63

169

19.2

208

361

22

380

832

91

936

X2

81

X1.X2
14
14
17
16
21
82

X2Y = a X2 + b1 X1X2 + b2X2

2

5
Y =
X1Y = 6.9
X2Y = 62

a+
a+
a+

7
10
82

b1 +
b1 +
b1 +

62
82
832

b2
b2
b2

=
=
=

70
91
936

a+
a+
a+
a+

6.9
9.9
48
50
1.9

b1 +
b1 +
b1 +
b1 +

62
81.9
428
410

b2
b2
b2
b2

=
=
=
=

70
90.8
483
454

b1 +

18.3

b2

29

10
82
614
565
49
1.9
-96
-96

b1 +
b1 +
b1 +
b1 +
b1 +

82
832
5078
5741
-663

b2
b2
b2
b2
b2

=
=
=
=
=

91
936
5630
6458
-829

b1 +
b1 +
b1 +

18.3
1286
902
384

b2
b2
b2
b2
b2
b1
a

=
=
=
=
=
=
=

29
1608
1430
178
0.46
-10.6
22.85

X1 +

0.46

5
6.9
34.5
34.5

6.9
62
428
428

a+
a+
a+
a+

Y = a + b1. X1+ b2 X2
Y=

22.8

10.58

X2

30

Regresi Berganda
2

Tahun

Penjualan (X)

Variabel (Xt)

X.Xt

Xt

2001

70

60

4,200

3,600

4,900

2002

90

75

6,750

5,625

8,100

2003

100

70

7,000

4,900

10,000

2004

115

90

10,350

8,100

13,225

2005

110

100

11,000

10,000

12,100

2006

125

115

14,375

13,225

15,625

610

510

53,675

45,450

63,950

Sloop
b=

6
6

b=

53,675

-610

45,450

260100

510

0.87

konstanta
a=

610

a=

27.8

0.87
6

510

0.87

Y=a+bX
Y=

Forecast
2007
2010
2020

27.8

tahun
pengaruh
2005
2008
2018

tahun
pengaruh
100
2006
2016

tahun
pengaruh
115
2014

tahun
pengaruh

2012

tahun
pengaruh

2010

Dependen

Y=a+bX

100
115
127.7380952

31

114.70
127.74
138.81

Koefisien
korelasi
r=

r=
r=

53,675

-510

610

sqrt {(
10,950
12,090
0.91

45,450

-260100

Signifikansi Korelasi
2
tr = r sqrt(n-2)/sqrt(1-r )
tr =
4.27
t tabel
(,n-2)
(0.05, 7-2)
(0.05,5)
tr

)(

63,950

372100

2.721

>
t tabel
r signifikan

Latihan
Carilah hubungan dan signifikasi hubungan antara variabel di bawah
Tahun
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

gaji
1,000
1,200
1,100
900
1,200
1,100
1,350

kelahiran
20
35
20
30
40
20
20

Carilah hubungan dan signifikasi hubungan variabel di bawah, dan carilah

penjualan tahun 2010
Tahun
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

Penjualan
120
120
140
135
150
110

32

)}

TUGAS TPB
Ketentuan:
1. tidak boleh ada tugas yang sama persis antar mahasiswa
2. masing-masing mahasiswa memilih variable yang akan
menjadi variable dependen dan independennya (regresi
berganda: variable independent minimal 2 variabel)
3. objek berupa perusahaan/lembaga profit/non profit
4. jumlah responden minimal 50 (50 karyawan/anggota)
5. dikumpulkan sepekan sebelum ujian akhir

Bentuk laporan
Bab I : pendahuluan/latar belakang masa lah
Bab II: Rencana penelitian
Bab III: hasil penelitian
Bab IV: Perhitungan dan analisis
Bab V: kesimpulan dan saran
Lampiran-lampiran
- angket terisi
- resum angket
- perhitungan statistik - regresi

33

WHAT'S MY MBTI PERSONALITY TYPE?

For each item, select either a or b. If you feel both a and b are true, decide
which one is more like you, even if it is only slightly more true.

1. I would rather
a) Solve a new and complicated
problem.

2. I like to
a) Work alone in a quiet place.
b) Be where the action is.

b) Work on something I have done

before.
3. I want a boss who

4. When I work on a project, I

a) Establishes and applies criteria

a) Like to finish it and get some
in decisions.
closure.
b) Considers individual needs and
b) Often leave it open for
makes exceptions.
possible changes.
5. When making a decision, the
most important considerations are
a) Rational thoughts, ideas, and
data.
b) People's feelings and values.

6. On a project, I tend to
a) Think it over and over before
deciding how to proceed.
b) Start working on it right
away, thinking about it as I go
along.

7. When working on a project, I

8. In my work, I prefer to

a) Maintain as much control as

possible.

a) Work on several projects at

a time, and learn as much as
possible about each one.

b) Explore various options.

b) Have one project that is

challenging and keeps me busy.
9. I often

10. When discussing a problem

with colleagues, it is easy for me
a) Make lists and plans whene ver
to
I start something and may hate to
seriously alter my plans.
a) See "the big picture."
b) Avoid plans and just let things
progress as I work on them.

b) Grasp the specifics of the

situation.

11. When the phone rings in my

office or at home, I usually

12. Which word describes you

better?

a) Consider it an interruption.

a) Analytical.

b) Do not mind answering it.

b) Empathetic.

13. When I am working on an

14. When I listen to someone

34

assignment, I tend to
a) Work steadily and consistently.
b) Work in bursts of energy with
"down time" in between.

talk on a subject, I usually try to

a) Relate it to my own
experience and see if it fits.
b) Assess and analyze the
message.

15. When I come up with new ideas, 16. When working on a project, I
I generally
prefer to
a) "Go for it."
b) Like to contemplate the ideas
some more
17. When I read something, I
usually

a) Narrow the scope so it is

clearly defined.
b) Broaden the scope to
include related aspects.
18. When I have to m ake a
decision in a hurry, I often

a) Confine my thoughts to what is

a) Feel uncomfortable and wish
written there.
I had more information.
b) Read between the lines and
relate the words to other ideas.

b) Am able to do so with
available data.

19. In a meeting, I tend to

20. In work, I prefer spending a

great deal of time on issues of

a) Continue formulating my ideas

as I talk about them.
b) Only speak out after I have
carefully thought the issue through.
21. In meetings, I am most often
annoyed with people who
a) Come up with many sketchy
ideas.

a) Ideas.
b) People.
22. I am a
a) Morning person.
b) Night owl.

b) Lengthen meetings with many

practical details.
23. What is your style in preparing
for a meeting?

24. In a meeting, I would prefer

for people to

a) I am willing to go in and be
responsive.

a) Display a fuller range of

emotions.

b) I like to be fully prepared and

usually sketch an outline of the
meeting.
25. I would rather work for an
organization where
a) My job was intellectually
stimulating.

b) Be more task oriented.

26. On weekends, I tend to

a) Plan what I will do.
b) Just see what happens and

35

b) I was committed to its goals

and mission.
27. I am more
a) Outgoing.

decide as I go along.
28. I would rather work for a
boss who is
a) Full of new ideas.

b) Contemplative.

b) Practical.
In the following, choose th e word in each pair that appeals to you
more:
29.

30.
a) Social.

a) Ingenuity.

b) Theoretical.

b) Practicality.

31.

32.
a) Organized.

a) Active.

b) Adaptable.

b) Concentration.

36

WHAT'S MY LOCUS OF CONTROL?

For each of the following ten statements, select the choice with which you agree
more.

1.

Making a lot of money is largely a matter of getting the right breaks.

Promotions are earned through hard work and persistence.

I have noticed that there is a direct connection between how hard I study and the
2.
grades
I get.
Many times, the reactions of teachers seem haphazard to me.
The number of divorces indicates that more and more people are not trying to
3. their marriages work.
make
Marriage is largely a gamble .

4.

It is silly to think that one can really change another person's basic attitudes.
When I am right I can convince others.

5.

Getting promoted is really a matter of being a little luckier than the next person.
In our society, a person's future earning power is dependent upon his or her ability.

6.

If one knows how to deal wit h people, they are really quite easily led.
I have little influence over the way other people behave.

The grades I make are the result of my own efforts; luck has little or nothing to do
7. it.
with
Sometimes I feel that I have little to do with the grades I get.
People like me can change the course of world affairs if we make ourselves heard.
8.

It is only wishful thinking to believe that one can readily influence what happens in
our society.

9.

A great deal that happens to me is probably a matter of chance.

I am the master of my fate.

Getting along with people is a skill that must be practiced.

10.
It is almost impossible to figure out how to please some people.

37

HOW FLEXIBLE AM I?
Indicate the degree to which you think the following statements are true or false
by selecting one of the following choices:
Certainly, always true
Generally true
Somewhat true, but with exceptions
Somewhat false, but with exceptions
Generally false
Certainly, always false
1. In social situations, I have the ability to alter my behavior if I feel that
something else is called for.
2. I am often able to read people's true emotions correctly through their
eyes.
3. I have the ability to control the way I come across to people, depending
on the impression I wish to give them.
4. In conversations, I am sensitive to even the slightest change in the facial
expression of the person I'm conversing with.
5. My powers of intuition are quite good when it c omes to understanding
others' emotions and motives.
6. I can usually tell when others consider a joke in bad taste, even though
they may laugh convincingly.
7. When I feel that the image I am portraying isn't working, I can readily
change it to something that does.
8. I can usually tell when I've said something inappropriate by reading the
listener's eyes.
9. I have trouble changing my behavior to suit different people and different
situations.
10. I have found that I can adjust my behavior to meet the requiremen ts of
any situation I find myself in.
11. If someone is lying to me, I usually know it at once from that person's
manner of expression.
12. Even when it might be to my advantage, I have difficulty putting up a good
front.
13. Once I know what the situation calls for, it's easy for me to regulate my
actions accordingly.

38

HOW PROACTIVE AM I?
Respond to each statement by indicating the extent to which you agree or
disagree with them. Use the following rating scale for your responses:
Strong disagree
Moderately disagree
Slightly disagree
Neither agree or disagree
Slightly agree
Moderately agree
Strongly agree
1. I am constantly on the lookout for new ways to improve my life.
2. I feel driven to make a difference in my community, and maybe the world.
3. I tend to let others take the initiative to start new projects.
4. Wherever I have been, I have been a powerful force for constructive
change.
5. I enjoy facing and overcoming obstacles to my ideas.
6. Nothing is more exciting than seeing my ideas turn into real ity.
7. If I see something I don't like, I fix it.
8. No matter what the odds, if I believe in something I will make it happen.
9. I love being a champion for my ideas, even against others' opposition.
10. I excel at identifying opportunities.
11. I am always looking for better ways to do things.
12. If I believe in an idea, no obstacle will prevent me from making it happen.
13. I love to challenge the status quo.
14. When I have a problem, I tackle it head -on.
15. I am great at turning problems into opportunities.
16. I can spot a good opportunity long before others can.
17. If I see someone in trouble, I help out in any way I can.

39

HOW WELL DO I HANDLE AMBIGUITY?

Respond to each of the following statements by indicating the extent to
which you agree or disagree with th em.
Strong disagree
Moderately disagree
Slightly disagree
Neither agree or disagree
Slightly agree
Moderately agree
Strongly agree

1. An expert who doesn't come up with a definite answer probably

doesn't know too much.
Select an Option

2. I would like to live in a foreign country for a while.

Select an Option

3. The sooner we all acquire similar values and ideals, the better.
Select an Option

4. A good teacher is one who makes you wonder a bout your way of
looking at things.
Select an Option

5. I like parties where I know most of the people more than ones
where all or most of the people are complete strangers.
Select an Option

6. Teachers or supervisors who hand out vague assignments give a

chance for one to show initiative and originality.
Select an Option

7. A person who leads an even, regular life in which few surprises or

unexpected happenings arise really has a lot to be grateful f or.
Select an Option

8. Many of our most important decisions are based on insufficient

information.
Select an Option

9. There is really no such thing as a problem that can't be solved.

Select an Option

10. People who fit their lives to a schedule probably miss most of the
joy of living.
Select an Option

11. A good job is one in which what is to be done and how it is to be

done are always clear.
Select an Option

40

12. It is more fun to tackle a complicated problem than to solve a simple

one.
Select an Option

13. In the long run, it is possible to get more done by tackling small,
simple problems than large and complicated ones.
Select an Option

14. Often the most interesting and stimulating people are those who
don't mind being different and original.
Select an Option

15. What we are used to is always preferable to what is unfamiliar.

Select an Option

16. People who insist upon a yes or no answer just don't know how
complicated things really are.
Select an Option

41

HOW CREATIVE AM I?
Review the 30 adjectives that follow. Being honest and forthright wit h your
answers, identify only those items that accurately describe you:

affected

intelligent

capable

inventive

cautious

mannerly

clever

narrow interests

commonplace

original

confident

reflective

conservative

resourceful

conventional

self-confident

dissatisfied

sexy

egotistical

sincere

honest

snobbish

humorous

submissive

individualistic

suspicious

informal

unconventional

insightful

wide interests

42

AM I a TYPE-A?
Identify the number on the scale that best characterizes your behavior for
each trait.

Casual about
appointments 1

Not competitive 1

Never feel
rushed 1

Take things one

at a time 1

Slow doing
things 1
Express
feelings 1
Many interests 1

Never late
Very
competitive
Always feel
rushed
Try to do
many things at
once
Fast (eating,
walking, etc.)
"Sit on"
feelings
Few interests
outside work

43

WHAT DO I VALUE?
Listed below are two sets of statements. The first list presents 10 terminal
values. These are desirable end-states of existence. Think of them as
goals that you might like to achieve during your lifetime. The second list
presents 10 instrumental values. These are preferable modes of behavior,
or means of achieving the terminal values.
For each list, rank the statements according to how important each is to
you personally. Score a "1" next to the value that is most important, a "2"
next to the second most important, and so forth. Treat each list separately.
Terminal Values
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Happiness; satisfaction in life

Knowledge and wisdom
Peace and harmony in the world
Pride in accomplishment
Prosperity; wealth
Lasting friendships
Recognition from peers
Salvation; finding eternal life
Security; freedom from threat

Self-respect
Instrumental Values
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Assertiveness; standing up for yourself

Being helpful or caring toward others
Dependability; being counted upon by others
Education and intellectual pursuits
Hard work and achievement
Obedience; following the wishes of others
Open-mindedness; receptivity to new ideas
Self-sufficiency; independence
Truthfulness; honesty
Being well-mannered and courteous toward others

44

HOW INVOLVED AM I IN MY JOB?

Below are ten statements each of which you may agree or disagree with
depending on your personal evaluation of your present job. Please
indicate the degree of your agreement or disagreement with each
statement using the following scale:
1 = Strongly disagree
2 = Disagree
3 = Mildly disagree
4 = Mildly agree
5 = Agree
6 = Strongly agree
1. The most important things that happen to me involve my pr esent
job.
Make a Selection

2. To me, my job is only a small part of who I am.

Make a Selection

3. I am very much involved personally in my job.

Make a Selection

4. I live, eat, and breathe my job.

Make a Selection

5. Most of my interests are centered around my job.

Make a Selection

6. I have very strong ties with my present job which would be very
difficult to break.
Make a Selection

7. Usually I feel detached from my job.

Make a Selection

8. Most of my personal life goals are job -oriented.

Make a Selection

9. I consider my job to be very central to my existence.

Make a Selection

10. I like to be absorbed in my job most of the time.

Make a Selection

45

HOW SATISFIED AM I WITH MY JOB?

For the 20 items on this questionnaire, select your response from one of
the following:
1 = Very dissatisfied
2 = Dissatisfied
3 = I can't decide whether I am satisfied or not
4 = Satisfied
5 = Very satisfied
On my present job, this is how I feel about:
1. Being able to keep busy all the time.
1
2
3
4
5
2. The chance to work alone on the job.
1
2
3
4
5
3. The chance to do different things from time to time.
1
2
3
4
5
4. The chance to be "somebody" in the community.
1
2
3
4
5
5. The way my boss handles his/her workers.
1
2
3
4
5
6. The competence of my supervisor in making decisions.
1
2
3
4
5
7. Being able to do things that don't go against my conscience.
1
2
3
4
5
8. The way my job provides for steady employment.
1
2
3
4
5
9. The chance to do things for other people.
1
2
3
4
5
10. The chance to tell people what to do.
1
2
3
4
5
11. The chance to do something that makes use of my abilities.
1
2
3
4
5
12. The way company policies are put into practice.
1
2
3
4
5
13. My pay and the amount of work I do.
1
2
3
4
5
14. The chances for advancement on this j ob.
1

46

15. The freedom to use my own judgment.

1
2
3
4
5
16. The chance to try my own methods of doing the job.
1
2
3
4
17. The working conditions.

1
2
3
4
5
18. The way my coworkers get along with each other.
1
2
3
4
5
19. The praise I get for doing a good job.
1
2
3
4
5
20. The feeling of accomplishment I get from my job.
1

47

WHAT'S MY ATTITUDE TOWARD ACHIEVEMENT?

Using the following scale, select the answer that best expresses your
opinion on each of the 20 questions. Try to minimize the use of answer #4.
1 = I disagree very much
2 = I disagree on the whole
3 = I disagree a little
4 = In between or don't know
5 = I agree a little
6 = I agree on the whole
7 = I agree very much
1. People who are very successful deserve all the rewards they get for
their achievements.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2. It's good to see very successful people fail occasionally.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
3. Very successful people often get too big for their boots.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
4. People who are very successful in what they do are usually friendly
and helpful to others.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
5. At school it's probably better for students to be near the middle of
the class than the very top student.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
6. People shouldn't criticize or knock the very successful.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
7. Very successful people who fall from the top usually deserve their
fall from grace.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8. Those who are very success ful ought to come down off their
pedestals and be like other people.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9. The very successful person should receive public recognition for
his/her accomplishments.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
10. People who are very successful should be cut down to size.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
11. One should always respect the person at the top.
1

48

12. One ought to be sympathetic to very successful people when they

experience failure and fall from their very high positions.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
13. Very successful people som etimes need to be brought back a peg
or two, even if they have done nothing wrong.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
14. Society needs a lot of very high achievers.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
15. People who always do a lot better than others need to learn what
it's like to fail.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
16. People who are right at the top usually deserve their high position.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
17. It's very important for society to support and encourage people who
are very successful.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
18. People who are very successful get too full of t heir own importance.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
19. Very successful people usually succeed at the expense of other
people.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20. Very successful people who are at the top of their field are usually
fun to be with.
1

49

WHAT MOTIVATES ME?

Indicate how important each of the following is in the job you would like to
get. Use the five-point scale for your responses.
1 = Not important
2 = Slightly important
3 = Moderately important
4 = Very important
5 = Extremely importan t
1. Cooperative relations with my coworkers.
Select an Option

2. Developing new skills and knowledge at work.

Select an Option

3. Good pay for my work.

Select an Option

4. Being accepted by others.

Select an Option

5. Opportunity for independent thought and action.

Select an Option

6. Frequent raises in pay

Select an Option

7. Opportunity to develop close friendships at work.

Select an Option

8. A sense of self-esteem.
Select an Option

9. A complete fringe-benefit program.

Select an Option

10. Openness and honesty with my coworkers.

Select an Option

11. Opportunities for personal growth and development.

Select an Option

12. A sense of security from bodily harm.

Select an Option

50

WHAT REWARDS DO I VALUE MOST?

Below are ten work-related rewards. For each, identify the number that
best describes the value that a particular reward has for you personally.
Use the following scale to express your feelings:
1 = No value at all
2 = Slight value
3 = Moderate value
4 = Great value
5 = Extremely great value
1. Good pay
1
2
3
4
2. Prestigious title

1
2
3
3. Vacation time

1
2
3
4. Job security

1
2
3
5. Recognition

1
2
3
4
6. Interesting work

1
2
3
4
7. Pleasant conditions

1
2
3
4
8. Chances to advance

1
2
3
4
9. Flexible schedule

1
2
3
4
10. Friendly coworkers

51

WHAT'S MY VIEW ON THE NATURE OF PEOPLE?

Indicate your agreement or disagreement with each of the eight
statements using the following scale:
Strongly disagree
Disagree
undicided
Agree
Strongly agree
1. The average human being prefers to be directed, wishes to avoid
responsibility, and has relatively little ambition.
Select an Option

2. Most people can acquire leadership skills regardless of their

particular inborn traits and abilities.
Select an Option

3. The use of rewards (for example, pay and promotion) and

punishment (for example, failure to promote) is the best way to get
subordinates to do their work.
Select an Option

4. In a work situation, if the subordinate can influence you, you lose

some influence over them.
Select an Option

5. A good leader gives detailed and complete instructions to

subordinates rather than giving them merely general directions and
depending on their initiative to work out the details.
Select an Option

6. Individual goal setting offers advantages that cannot be obtained by

group goal setting, because groups do not set high goals.
Select an Option

7. A superior should give subordinates only the information necessary

for them to do their immediate tasks.
Select an Option

8. The superior's influence over subordinates in an organization is

primarily economic.
Select an Option

52

HOW SENSITIVE AM I TO EQUITY DIFFERENCES?

The four statements ask what you' d like your relationship to be with any
organization for which you might work. For each, divide 10 points between
the two answers (A and B) by giving the most points to the answer that is
most like you and the fewest points to the answer least like you. Yo u can,
if you like, give the same number of points to both answers. And you can
use zeros if you'd like. Just be sure to use all 10 points on each question.
Insert your points next to each letter.
In any organization where I might work:
1. It would be more important for me to:
A. Help others

B. Watch out for my own good

2.
3. I would be more concerned about:
A. What I received from the organization

B. What I contributed to the organization

4.
5. The hard work I would do should:
A. Benefit the organization

B. Benefit me

6.
7. My personal philosophy in dealing with the organization would be:
A. If you don't look out for yourself,
0
nobody else will
B. It's better to give than to receive

8.
9. It would be more important for me to:
A. Get from the organization

B. Give to the organization

53

WHAT'S MY DECISION -MAKING STYLE?

For each of the statements below, select the one altern ative that best
describes how you see yourself in your typical work situation.
1. I enjoy jobs that:
Select an Option

2. In my job, I look for:

Select an Option

3. When faced with solving a problem, I:

Select an Option

4. When using information, I prefer:

Select an Option

5. I am especially good at:

Select an Option

6. When time is important, I:

Select an Option

7. I work well with those who are:

Select an Option

8. Others consider me:

Select an Option

9. My decisions typically are:

Select an Option

54

HOW INTUITIVE AM I?
For each of the following questions , select the response that first appeals
to you.
1. When working on a project, I prefer to:
a. be told what the problem is, but left free to decide how to
solve it.
b. get very clear instructions about how to go about solving the
problem before I start.
2. When working on a project, I prefer to work with colleagues
who are:
a. realistic.
b. imaginative.
3. I admire people most who are:
a. creative.
b. careful.
4. The friends I choose tend to be:
a. serious and hard working.
b. exciting and often emotional.
5. When I ask a colleague for advice on a problem I have, I:
a. seldom or never get upset if he/she questions my basic
assumptions.
b. often get upset if he/she questions my basic assumptions.
6. When I start my day, I usually:
a. seldom make or follow a specific plan.
b. make a plan first to follow.
7. When working with numbers, I find that I:
a. seldom or never make factual errors.
b. often make factual errors.
8. I find that I:
a. seldom daydream durin g the day and really don't enjoy doing
so when I do it.
b. frequently daydream during the day and enjoy doing so.
9. When working on a problem I:
a. prefer to follow the instructio ns or rules when they are given
to me.
b. often enjoy circumventing the instructions or rules when they
are given to me.

55

10. When I try to put something together, I prefer to have:

a. step-by-step written instructions on how to assemble the
item.
b. a picture of how the item is supposed to look once
assembled.
11. I find that the person who irritates me the most is the one
who appears to be:
a. disorganized.
b. organized.
12. When an unexpected crisis comes up that I have to deal
with, I:
a. feel anxious about the situation.
b. feel excited by the challenge of the situation.

56

HOW DO MY ETHICS RATE?

Indicate your level of agreement with these 15 statements using the
following scale:
1 = Strongly disagree
2 = Disagree
3 = Neither agree or disagree
4 = Agree
5 = Strongly agree
1. The only moral of business is making money.
1
2
3
4
5
2. A person who is doing well in business does not have to worry
about moral problems.
1
2
3
4
5
3. Act according to the law, and you can't go wrong morally.
1
2
3
4
5
4. Ethics in business is basically an adjustment between expectations
and the ways people behave.
1
2
3
4
5
5. Business decisions involve a realistic economic attitude and not a
moral philosophy.
1
2
3
4
5
6. "Business ethics" is a concept for public relations only.
1
2
3
4
5
7. Competitiveness and profitability are important values.
1
2
3
4
5
8. Conditions of a free economy will best serve the needs of society.
Limiting competition can only hurt society and actually violates
basic natural laws.
1
2
3
4
5
9. As a consumer, when making an auto insurance claim, I try to get
as much as possible regardless of the extent of the damage.
1
2
3
4
5
10. While shopping at the supermarket, it is appropriate to switch price
tags on packages.
1
2
3
4
5
11. As an employee, I can take home office supplies; it doesn't hurt
anyone.
1

57

12. I view sick days as vacation days that I deserve.

1
2
3
4
5
13. Employees' wages should be determined according to the laws of
supply and demand.
1
2
3
4
5
14. The business world has its own rules.
1
2
3
4
5
15. A good businessperson is a successful businessperson.
1

58

WHAT'S MY EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE SCORE?

Indicate your level of agreement with these ten statements using the
following scale:
Strongly disagree
Disagree
Neither agree or disagree
Agree
Strongly agree
1. I am usually aware-from moment to moment -of my feelings as they
change.
Select an Option

2. I act before I think.

Select an Option

3. When I want something, I want it NOW!

Select an Option

4. I bounce back quickly from life's setbacks.

Select an Option

5. I can pick up subtle social cues that indicate others' needs or wants.
Select an Option

6. I'm very good at handling myself in social situations.

Select an Option

7. I'm persistent in going after the things I want.

Select an Option

8. When people share their problems with me, I'm good at putting
myself in their shoes.
Select an Option

9. When I'm in a bad mood, I make a strong effort to get out of it.
Select an Option

10. I can find common ground and build rapport with people from all
walks of life.
Select an Option

59

WHAT TIME OF DAY AM I MOST PRODUCTIVE?

FIndicate the response for each item that best describes you.

1. Considering only your own "feeling best" rhythm, at what time

would you get up if you were entirely free to plan your day?
a. 5:00-6:30 a.m.
b. 6:30-7:45 a.m.
c. 7:45-9:45 a.m.
d. 9:45-11:00 a.m.
e. 11:00 a.m.-12:00 (noon)
2. Considering only your "feeling best" rhythm, at what time would
you go to bed if you were entirely free to plan your evening?
a. 8:00-9:00 p.m.
b. 9:00-10:15 p.m.
c. 10:15 p.m.-12:30 a.m.
d. 12:30-1:45 a.m.
e. 1:45-3:00 a.m.
3. Assuming normal ci rcumstances, how easy do you find getting up
in the morning?
a. Not at all easy
b. Slightly easy
c. Fairly easy
d. Very easy
4. How alert do you feel during the first half hour after you wake up in
the morning?
a. Not at all alert
b. Slightly alert
c. Fairly alert
d. Very alert
5. During the first half hour after awakening in the morning, how tired
do you feel?
a. Very tired
b. Fairly tired
c. Fairly refreshed
d. Very refreshed

60

6. You have decided to engage in some physical exercise. A friend

suggests that you do this one hour, twice a week and the best time
for him is 7:00-8:00 a.m. Bearing in mind nothing else but your own
"feeling best" rhythm, how do you think you would perform?
a. Would be in good form
b. Would be in reasonable form
c. Would find it difficult
d. Would find it very difficult
7. At what time in the evening do you feel tired and, as a result, in
need of sleep?
a. 8:00-9:00 p.m.
b. 9:00-10:15 p.m.
c. 10:15 p.m.-12:30 a.m.
d. 12:30-1:45 a.m.
e. 1:45-3:00 a.m.
8. You wish to be at your peak performance for a test which you
know is going to be mentally exhausting and will last for two hours.
You are entirely free to plan your day, and considering only your own
"feeling best" rhythm, which ONE of the four testing time s would you
choose?
a. 8:00-10:00 a.m.
b. 11:00 a.m.-1:00 p.m.
c. 3:00-5:00 p.m.
d. 7:00-9:00 p.m.
9. One hears about "morning" and "evening" types of people. Which
ONE of these types do you consider yourself to be?
a. Definitely a morning type
b. More a morning than an evening type
c. More an evening than a morning type
d. Definitely an evening type
10. When would you prefer to rise (provided you have a full day's
work-8 hours) if you were totally free to arran ge your time?
a. Before 6:30 a.m.
b. 6:30-7:30 a.m.
c. 7:30-8:30 a.m.
d. 8:30 a.m. or later
11. If you always had to rise at 6:00 a.m., what do you think it would

61

be like?
a. Very difficult and unpleasant
b. Rather difficult and unpleasant
c. A little unpleasant but no great problem
d. Easy and not unpleasant
12. How long does it usually take you before you "recover your
senses" in the morning after rising from a night's sleep?
a. 0-10 minutes
b. 11-20 minutes
c. 21-40 minutes
d. More than 40 minutes
13. Please indicate the extent you are a morning or evening act ive
individual.
a. Pronounced morning active (morning alert and evening tired)
b. To some extent, morning active
c. To some extent, evening act ive
d. Pronounced evening active (morning tired and evening alert)

62

HOW GOOD AM I AT PERSONAL PLANNING?

Indicate how much you agree or disagree with each of the 6 statements as
they relate to your school and personal life. Use the following scale to
record your answers:
1 = Strongly disagree
2 = Disagree
3 = Neither agree or disagree
4 = Agree
5 = Strongly agree
1. I am proactive rather than reactive.
1
2
3
4
5
2. I set aside enough time and resources to study and complete
projects.
1
2
3
4
5
3. I am able to budget money to buy the things I really want without
going broke.
1
2
3
4
5
4. I have thought through what I want to do in school.
1
2
3
4
5
5. I have a plan for completing my major.
1
2
3
4
5
6. My goals for the future are realistic.
1

63

AM I LIKELY TO BECOME AN ENTREPRENEUR?

Respond to each of the 17 statements:
1. I am constantly on the lookout for new ways to improve my life.
Select an Option

2. I feel driven to make a difference in my community, and maybe the

world.
Select an Option

3. I tend to let others take the initia tive to start new projects.
Select an Option

4. Wherever I have been, I have been a powerful force for constructive

change.
Select an Option

5. I enjoy facing and overcoming obstacles to my ideas.

Select an Option

6. Nothing is more exciting than seeing my ideas turn into reality.

Select an Option

7. If I see something I don't like, I fit it.

Select an Option

8. No matter what the odds, if I believe in something I will make it

happen.
Select an Option

9. I love being a champion for my ideas, even against others'

opposition.
Select an Option

10. I excel at identifying opportunities.

Select an Option

11. I am always looking for better ways to do things.

Select an Option

12. If I believe in an idea, no obstacle will prevent me from making it

happen.
Select an Option

13. I love to challenge the status quo.

Select an Option

14. When I have a problem, I tackle it head -on.

Select an Option

15. I am great at turning problems into opportunities.

Select an Option

16. I can spot a good opportunity long before others can.

Select an Option

17. If I see someone in trouble, I help out in any way I can.

Select an Option

64

WHAT'S MY FACE-TO-FACE COMMUNICATION STYLE?

Respond to each of the 45 statements using the following scale:
+2 = Strongly agree
+1 = Agree
0 = Neither agree or disagree
-1 = Disagree
-2 = Strongly disagree
1. I am comfortable with all varieties of people.
+2
+1
2. I laugh easily.

-1

-2

+2
+1
0
-1
-2
3. I readily express admiration for others.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
4. What I say usually leaves an impression on people.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
5. I leave people with an impression of me which they definitely tend
to remember.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
6. To be friendly, I habitually acknowledge verbally other's
contributions.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
7. I have some nervous mannerisms in my speech.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
8. I am a very relaxed communicator.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
9. When I disagree with somebody, I am very quick to challenge them.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
10. I can always repeat back to a person exactly what was meant.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
11. The sound of my voice is very easy to recognize.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
12. I leave a definite impression on people.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
13. The rhythm or flow of my speech is sometimes affected by
nervousness.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
14. Under pressure I come across as a relaxed speaker.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
15. My eyes reflect exactly what I am feeling when I communicate.
+2

+1

-1

-2

65

16. I dramatize a lot.

+2
+1
0
-1
-2
17. Usually, I deliberately react in such a way that people know that I
am listening to them.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
18. Usually, I do not tell people much about myself until I get to know
them well.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
19. Regularly, I tell jokes, anecdotes, and stories when I communicate.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
20. I tend to constantly gesture when I communicate.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
21. I am an extremely open communicator.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
22. I am vocally a loud communicator.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
23. In arguments I insist upon very precise definitions.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
24. In most social situations I generally speak very frequently.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
25. I like to be strictly accurate when I communicate.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
26. Because I have a loud voice, I can easily break into a conversation.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
27. Often I physically and vocally act out when I want to communicate.
+2
+1
0
-1
28. I have an assertive voice.

-2

+2
+1
0
-1
-2
29. I readily reveal personal things about myself.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
30. I am dominant in social situations.
+2
+1
0
-1
31. I am very argumentative.

-2

+2
+1
0
-1
-2
32. Once I get wound up in a heated discussion I have a hard time
stopping myself.
+2

+1

-1

-2

66

33. I am always an extremely friendly communicator.

+2
+1
0
-1
-2
34. I really like to listen very carefully to people.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
35. Very often I insist that other people document or present some kind
of proof for what they are arguing.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
36. I try to take charge of things when I am with people.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
37. It bothers me to drop an argument that is not resolved.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
38. In most social situations I tend to come on strong.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
39. I am very expressive nonverbally in social situations.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
40. The way I say something usually leaves an impression on people.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
41. Whenever I communicate, I tend to be very encouraging to people.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
42. I actively use a lot of facial expressions when I communicate.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
43. I very frequently verbally exaggerate to emphasize a point.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
44. I am an extremely attentive communicator.
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
45. As a rule, I openly express my feelings and emotions.
+2

+1

-1

-2

67

HOW GOOD AM I AT GIVING FEEDBACK?

For each of the following pairs, identify the statement that most closely
matches what you normally do when you give feedback to someon e else.

1.
a. Describe the behavior
b. Evaluate the behavior
2.
a. Focus on the feelings that the behavior evokes
b. Tell the person what they should be doing differently
3.
a. Give specific instances of the behavior
b. Generalize
4.
a. Deal only with behavior that the person can control
b. Sometimes focus on something the person can do nothing about
5.
a. Tell the person as soon as possible after the behavior
b. Sometimes wait too long
6.
a. Focus on the effect the behavior has on me
b. Try to figure out why the individual did what he or she did
7.
a. Balance negative feedback with positive feedback
b. Sometimes focus only on the negative
8.
a. Do some soul searching to make sure that the reas on I am giving
the feedback is to help the other person or to strengthen our relationship
b. Sometimes give feedback to punish, win, or dominate the other
person

68

AM I A TEAM PLAYER?
Use the following scale to identify the extent of your agreement with the 20
statements:

1. Only those who depend on themselves get ahead in life.

Select an Option

2. To be superior, a person must stand alone.

Select an Option

3. If you want something done right, you've got to do it yourself.

Select an Option

4. What happens to me is my own doing.

Select an Option

5. In the long run the only person you can count on is yourself.
Select an Option

6. Winning is everything.
Select an Option

7. I feel that winning is important in both work and games.

Select an Option

8. Success is the most important thing in life.

Select an Option

9. It annoys me when other people perform better than I do.

Select an Option

10. Doing your best isn't enough; it is important to win.

Select an Option

11. I prefer to work with others in a group rather t han working alone.
Select an Option

12. Given the choice, I would rather do a job where I can work alone
rather than doing a job where I have to work with others in a group.
Select an Option

13. Working with a group is b etter than working alone.

Select an Option

14. People should be made aware that if they are going to be part of a
group then they are sometimes going to have to do things they don
?t want to do.
Select an Option

15. People who belong to a group should realize that they re not always
going to get what they personally want.
Select an Option

16. People in a group should realize that they sometimes are going to
have to make sacrifices for the sake of the gro up as a whole.
Select an Option

69

17. People in a group should be willing to make sacrifices for the sake
of the groups well?being.
Select an Option

18. A group is most productive when its members do what they want to
do rather than what the group wants them to do.
Select an Option

19. A group is most efficient when its members do what they think is
best rather than doing what the group wants them to do.
Select an Option

20. A group is most productive when its members follow their own
interests and concerns.
Select an Option

Penulis

Setyabudi Indartono

70

Lahir di Purwokwero, 20 juli 1972.

Menyelesaikan studi SD hingga SMA di
Banjarnegara Jawa Tengah. Kemudian
melanjutkan studi S1 di Teknis Sipil
Universitas Gadjahmada dan S2 di Magister
Manajemen di Universitas yang sama.

Pernah bekerja di PT Freeport Indonesia sebagai senior fasilitator/trainer,

kemudian

Direktur

Umum

dan

Keuangan

Rumah

Sa kit

PKU

Muhammadiyyah Bantul. Menjadi Direktur Cabang LMT Trustco sejak

1998. Kemudian menjadi Staf Pengajar/Dosen Manajeman di Universitas
Negeri Yogyakarta. Beberapa tuliusan yang pernah ditulis adalah: Steel
Structure Design of PT FI apartments with St aad III Software (1995),
Construction Management of PT FI (1997), Justice Party direct Selling
(2000), Management Behavior : Mentoring as Solution (2000), Business
Research Method: Memory Research (2000),Yogyakarta Islamic Hospital:
Managing Performance (2 000), Yayasan Bina Sehat: Organization Change
and Developmet as a priority need (2000), Human Resource Management:
Sociaty central health Bantul Yogyakarta (2000),Organization Design of
Region Directorate of Justice Party of Yogyakarta (2000), PT KPI
Tembagapura Compensation applications (2000), SWOT (2003), Advance
SWOT (2003), Modul TFT Trustco (2004), Leadership (2005), Training For
Beginer (2005), Smart Trainer (2005), Strategic trainer (2005), Decition
Making (UNY, 2005), Operation Research (UNY, 2004) , QSB+ (UNY, 2006),
Marketing Advance (UNY, 2005), Lembaga Keuangan (UNY, 2005),
Tinggal dengan seorang Istri, dr. Yayuk Soraya, dan tiga anak laki lakinya, Aiman Hilmi Asaduddin (1999), Rofiq Wafi Muhammad (2001),
dan Muhammad Kaisan Haedar (2004) di Jl Arwana No 7 Minomartani.
Bisa

dihubungi

di

08157934565,

dan

setyabudihrm@telkom.net,

Setyabudi_Indartono@uny.ac.id

71