7/10/2016

Statistik Inferensi Min

Populasi ( ) Satu Sampel
MINGGU 5
6 OKTOBER 2016

2
Apakah Hipotesis?

1
 7/10/2016

IMBAS KEMBALI… 3
Nyatakan H0 dan Ha

Min Skor IQ pelajar sekolah menengah di

Malaysia adalah 100 = 15 . Anda ingin
mengkaji jika IQ pelajar di sekolah anda
mempunyai skor IQ yang berbeza dengan
populasi pelajar di seluruh Malaysia atau
tidak.

4
Pengujian Hipotesis

2
 7/10/2016

5
Type 1 Type II
Error Error

6
Summary of One- and Two-Tail
Tests…

One-Tail Test Two-Tail Test One-Tail Test

(left tail) (right tail)

3
 7/10/2016

7
Nilai Kritikal

 Nilai kritikal adalah nilai yang menjadi

sempadan bagi kawasan penolakan H0.

 Nilai ini merupakan nilai dimana penyelidik

meletakkan penetapan sama ada cukup
bukti untuk menolak H0 ataupun tidak
cukup bukti menolak H0 (gagal menolak
H0).

8
Nilai Statistik Pengujian

 Ini adalah nilai yang dikira dan dijadikan

bukti sama ada hipotesis sifar benar atau
salah.
 Jika nilai statistik pengujian masuk dalam
kawasan kritikal maka H0 adalah salah,
ditolak dan Ha gagal ditolak
 Jika nilai statistik pengujian masuk dalam
kawasan tidak kritikal maka H0 adalah
benar, maka gagal menolak H0.

4
 7/10/2016

9
Membuat Keputusan dan
Tafsiran

Fail to Reject H Null

10
LANGKAH PENGUJIAN HIPOTESIS

 L1. Nyatakan hipotesis penyelidikan

 L2. Tetapkan aras signifikan, aras = 0.01/ 0.05/

0.10 dan pengujian statistik yang sesuai.

 L3. Tentukan nilai kritikal – rujuk jadual.

 L4. Kirakan statistik pengujian (tests statistics) –

rujuk formula

 L5. Buat keputusan, kesimpulan, dan tafsiran.

5
 7/10/2016

11
Assumptions of the z-test

1. We have randomly selected sample

2. The dependent variable is at least approximately
normally distributed in the population and involves
an interval or ratio scale
3. We know the mean of the population of raw scores
under some other condition of the independent
variable
4. We know the true standard deviation of the
population sxdescribed by the null hypothesis

A sampling distribution for H0 showing the region12of

rejection for a = .05 in a 2-tailed z-test.

2-tailed regions

6
 7/10/2016

A sampling distribution for H0 showing the region13of

rejection for a = .05 in a 1-tailed z-test.

1-tailed region, above mean

A sampling distribution for H0 showing the region 14of

rejection for a = .05 in a 1-tailed z-test where a
decrease in the mean is predicted.

1-tailed region, below mean

7
 7/10/2016

The Formula

 Single score

 Single sample

15

16
Ujian-Z dan Ujian-t

8
 7/10/2016

17
Contoh 1

Seorang pensyarah telah membuat rekod markah

pencapaian pelajar untuk subjek KP2 dan
didapati min populasi adalah µ, is 72. Kumpulan
36 orang pelajar yang mendaftar untuk semester
II mempunyai pencapaian dengan min markah
ialah 75.2. Beliau ingin membuktikan bahawa
pencapaian pelajar semester II adalah lebih baik
berbanding semester lepas.

18

Does the class mean of 75.2 present

sufficient evidence to support the
lecturer’s claim that the current class is
smarter? Use α = 0. 05 and σ = 12

9
 7/10/2016

19
Hipotesis Nol

H0 : µ = 72 ( H0 :  72 )

Hipotesis alternatif
H1 : µ > 72 Pengujian satu
hujung

TEST STATISTIC Z 20

* X  0 75.2  72
z    1.60
s 12
n 36

TEST CRITERIA
  0.05
z  z0.05  1.645

10
 7/10/2016

Kawasan penolakan dan

p-value 21

p-value = 0.0548

0 1.60 1.645

Rejection
Acceptance region
region

Critical
value

22
CONCLUSION

Since the test statistic (z*) falls in the acceptance region,

we must reach the following decision :

Keputusan : Gagal menolak Ho

11
 7/10/2016

23
THE EXPLANATION

The p-value >

i.e.
0.0548  0.05
Kesimpulan?

24
Question

A researcher is interested to know whether

students who attend private high schools have
higher average SAT scores than students in the
general population. A random sample of 90
students at a private high school is tested and
has a mean SAT score of 1050. The average for
public school students is 1000 (standard
deviation is 200). What should the researcher
conclude?

12
 7/10/2016

25
Computing Confidence
Interval

 We seek the highest and lowest µ

that are not significantly different
from the sample mean.

 You are calculating interval that the

µ of the population that you are
studying will fall on AND you are
K% sure of this interval.

26
Confidence Interval Estimation of
Population Mean, µ, when σ is known
Assumptions
 Population standard deviation σ is known
 Population is normally distributed
 If population is not normal, use large sample

(where Z is the normal distribution’s critical value

for a probability of α/2 in each tail)

13
 7/10/2016

 Consider a 95% confidence interval:

27
1    .95   .05  / 2  .025

α .475 .475 α
 .025  .025
2 2

Z
Z= -1.96 0 Z= 1.96
Lower Upper
Confidence Point Estimate Confidence
Limit Limit

28
Two-tailed hypothesis

 If we take a sample of 30 students and find their

average IQ to be 106.58, we can test whether the
population from which our sample came had an
average IQ of 100
H0: m=100 (average IQ)
Ha:m ≠ 100

 Convert our sample mean to Z statistics

(106.58-100)/2.74 = 2.4

14
 7/10/2016

29

Z=-2.4 Z= 2.4

30
One-tailed hypothesis

 If we take a sample of 30 students and find their

average IQ to be 106.58, we can test whether the
population from which our sample came had an average
IQ greater than 100

H0: m=100 (average IQ)

Ha:m > 100

 Convert our sample mean to Z statistic

(106.58-100)/2.74 = 2.4

15
 7/10/2016

31

Z=2.4

32
One-tailed hypothesis

 If we take a sample of 30 students and find their

average IQ to be 93.42, we can test whether the
population from which our sample came had an
average IQ less than 100

H0: m=100 (average IQ)

Ha:m < 100

 Convert our sample mean to Z statistic

(93.42-100)/2.74 = - 2.4

16
 7/10/2016

33

Z=-2.4

34
The t Distribution

We use t when the population variance is unknown (the usual case)

and sample size is small. If you use a stat package for testing
hypotheses about means, you will use t.

The t distribution is a short, fat relative of the normal. The shape of t depends on
its degree of freedom (n-1). As N becomes infinitely large, t becomes normal.

17
 7/10/2016

35
One-Sample T-test

If we do not know the s of the population – we can’t

calculate the SE of the mean

We can estimate it with the SD of the sample:

36

 Instead of calculating z statistic – we

calculate the t-statistic

− −
= =

18
 7/10/2016

37
One-Sample T-test

 After calculating t-statistic, we find associated

p-value
 SPSS does this for us
 T is about the same as Z in large samples.
 For this class we will always use T

38
Making a decision

We compare the calculated p-value

to our preset a level

If p< , reject null hypothesis

If p> , fail to reject null
hypothesis

19
 7/10/2016

39
One sample t-test

As sample size increases, the

results from a t-test approximate a
z-test

SPSS only does one sample t-tests

40
Confidence interval for one sample t
test

20
 7/10/2016

Summary : Confidence Interval

(1 - a)% confidence interval for a population parameter

P ( C. I. encloses true population parameter ) = 1 - 

Note: a = P(Confidence Interval misses true population parameter )

“Proportion of times such a CI misses the population parameter”

Margin of Error

Point critical Std. dev. of

estimate ± value · point estimate

sample statistic standard deviation of

or sampling distribution
ex: X z / 2 t / 2 (aka “Standard Error”) 41

42
Langkah-langkah Ujian via
SPSS

Min Skor IQ pelajar sekolah menengah

di Malaysia adalah 100 = 15 . Anda
ingin mengkaji jika IQ pelajar di
sekolah anda mempunyai skor IQ yang
berbeza dengan populasi pelajar di
seluruh Malaysia atau tidak.

21
 7/10/2016

43

Langkah-Langkah Pengiraan

 L1. Nyatakan hipotesis penyelidikan

 L2. Tetapkan aras signifikan, aras = 0.01/ 0.05/

0.10 dan pengujian statistik yang sesuai.

 L3. Tentukan nilai kritikal – rujuk jadual.

 L4. Kirakan statistik pengujian (tests statistics) –

rujuk formula

 L5. Buat keputusan, kesimpulan, dan tafsiran.

22
 7/10/2016

Langkah 1 : Hipotesis

H0 : Tidak terdapat perbezaan min yang

signifikan antara skor IQ pelajar di sekolah
saya dengan populasi pelajar di seluruh
Malaysia

Ha : Terdapat perbezaan min yang

signifikan antara skor IQ pelajar di sekolah
saya dengan populasi pelajar di seluruh
Malaysia

Langkah 2 : Aras Signifikan

Tetapkan aras
signifikan

= 0.05

23
 7/10/2016

Langkah 3 :
RUJUK JADUAL
Nilai Kritikal

Nilai t-kritikal

24
 7/10/2016

Langkah 4 : Pengiraan

Kirakan min dan sisihan piawai skor IQ sekolah anda :

83 + 122 + ⋯ + 148
= = 112.6
20

Σ( − ̅ )
= = 19.83
−1

− 112.6 − 100
= = = 2.84
19.83
20

25
 7/10/2016

Langkah 5 : Keputusan
Kawasan
penolakan
= 2.83 > = 2.093
2.093 2.83

Langkah 6 : Laporan

Analisis Ujian-t menunjukkan bahawa

terdapat perbezaan yang signifikan
antara skor IQ pelajar di sekolah saya
dengan skor IQ pelajar di seluruh
Malaysia. t(19)=2.83, p<.05.

26
 7/10/2016

53
Langkah-langkah Ujian via
SPSS
LANGKAH 1 : Masukkan data dalam SPSS

54
Langkah-langkah Ujian via
SPSS
Langkah 2 : Pilih Analyze > Compare Means > One-Sample T Test

27
 7/10/2016

55
Langkah-langkah Ujian via
SPSS
Langkah 3 : Pindahkan pemboleh ubah Skor ke kotak Test Variable(s)

56
Langkah-langkah Ujian via
SPSS

Langkah 4 : Klik OK

28
 7/10/2016

57
Langkah-langkah Ujian via
SPSS

Langkah 5 : Output SPSS

p<0.05, Ho ditolak

58
Langkah-langkah Ujian via
SPSS

Langkah 6 : Laporan Ringkas

Analisis Ujian-t menunjukkan

bahawa terdapat perbezaan
yang signifikan antara skor IQ
pelajar di sekolah saya dengan
skor IQ pelajar di seluruh Malaysia.
t(19)=25.392, p<.05.

29
 7/10/2016

Power 59

Formally, power is the probability that you

will reject the null hypothesis when it
indeed false, this is equal to (1- ). So you
can avoid making a Type II error by
increasing power.
Ways to increase power:
-use parametric rather than nonparametric tests
-use a 1-tailed test rather than a 2-tailed test
-increasing sample size will also increase power
-clean up the experiment

60

30