• Sesuai target untuk menjual 40 hektar lahan industri di 2022. AKRA 830 107
Di Kuartal-II, AKRA telah mengakui 2,5 hektar penjualan lahan dari total 10
630 80
hektar. AKRA juga sedang menyelesaikan perjanjian penjualan lahan
May-22
Jul-21
Mar-22
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jul-22
Oct-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Aug-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Jan-22
Jun-22
Jun-22
sebesar 40 hektar, dimana 36 hektar akan diakui sebagai penjualan tahun
ini. Untuk 2023, AKRA menargetkan untuk menjual 60 hektar lahan. Source: Bloomberg
• Posisi net cash dengan capex yang terkendali. Hingga Semester-I posisi
net cash AKRA masih mencukupi untuk mengelola estimasi capex sebesar
Rp300 miliar yang mayoritas untuk aktivitas perawatan infrastruktur untuk
bisnis distribusinya, Oleh karena itu, AKRA akan lebih fleksibel untuk
membiayai kebutuhan capex-nya secara internal, melunasi utang lebih
awal, atau membagikan dividen. Overall ESG Score: 3.13 (out of 4)
E: EXCELLENT
• TP yang baru memasukkan 2% premium ESG. TP kami mencerminkan KEK-JIIPE is a Green Industrial Estate that has taken
18x P/E ’22 dan 12x EV/EBITDA ’22, keduanya +1SD diatas rata-rata 5 various ESG initiatives. AKRA operates the water treatment
tahunnya. TP kami memasukkan 2% premium ESG melihat nilai ESG and waste water treatment plants at the Java Integrated
AKRA sebesar 3,1. Industrial and Port Estate or JIIPE. Other initiatives include
zero water run-off, gas-based power generation, even the
• Resiko penurunan: pertumbuhan bisnis yang lebih rendah dari estimasi development of solar-power installed in roof tops of the
dan rendahnya penjualan lahan industrinya. tenants and OHS Management according to ISO
Standards.
S: EXCELLENT
Forecasts and Valuation Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F AKRA has a policy to prioritise local labour from locations
surrounding its operational areas, such as the recruitment
Total turnover (IDRb) 17,716 25,707 37,493 38,582 42,549
of operator personnel at the company’s gas stations and
Recurring net profit (IDRb) 866 1,173 1,522 1,734 1,920 terminals. Also, with the development JIIPE, AKRA has
Recurring net profit growth (%) 5.1 35.5 29.7 13.9 10.7 created employment opportunities for locals to support
Recurring P/E (x) 25.38 18.74 14.44 12.68 11.45
JIIPE’s operations, supported by the regional government.
G: EXCELLENT
P/B (x) 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 AKRA’s good corporate governance implementation is
P/CF (x) 11.36 11.98 13.63 10.75 9.69 based on legal corridors that are applied nationally and
Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 2.4 2.6 3.4 3.9 internationally. Governance standards that the Company
includes the ASEAN Corporate Governance Scorecard
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.88 11.78 9.96 8.95 7.53
issued by the ASEAN Capital Market Forum and the
Return on average equity (%) 11.1 13.1 15.6 16.2 16.4 Indonesian Corporate Governance Roadmap published by
Net debt to equity (%) 22.3 1.5 5.2 8.2 net cash the Financial Services Authority or OJK.
Source: Company data, RHB
Financial Exhibits
Asia Financial summary (IDR) Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F
Indonesia Recurring EPS 43.14 58.44 75.82 86.39 95.64
Energy & Petrochemicals DPS 19.68 26.55 29.00 37.65 42.99
AKR Corporindo BVPS 429.38 458.66 504.96 553.29 605.41
AKRA IJ Return on average equity (%) 11.1 13.1 15.6 16.2 16.4
Buy
Valuation metrics Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F
Valuation basis Recurring P/E (x) 25.38 18.74 14.44 12.68 11.45
Our valuation is based on SOTP valuation consist of P/B (x) 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8
DCF-based (WACC: 13%) for the trading-distribution FCF Yield (%) 6.0 3.2 5.3 6.1 5.3
and also the JIIPE utility service business segment and Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 2.4 2.6 3.4 3.9
NAV for AKRA’s 60% ownership for industrial estates. EV/EBITDA (x) 15.88 11.78 9.96 8.95 7.53
EV/EBIT (x) 20.61 14.51 11.22 10.24 8.63
Key drivers
Well established infrastructure and connectivity, blue Income statement (IDRb) Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F
chip customers, and growing industrial estate income
Total turnover 17,716 25,707 37,493 38,582 42,549
as a future revenue driver.
Gross profit 2,048 2,293 3,140 3,408 3,886
Key risks EBITDA 1,559 1,858 2,229 2,530 2,799
Depreciation and amortisation (358) (350) (251) (318) (359)
Risk to our call include:
i. Slower-than-expected growth in business Operating profit 1,201 1,509 1,977 2,212 2,440
segments due to the pandemic, Net interest (24) (20) 38 26 48
ii. Execution risk due to the delay in the JIIPE’s Pre-tax profit 1,227 1,490 1,969 2,229 2,463
development; Taxation (265) (302) (425) (481) (532)
iii. Unfavourable changes in government regulation
Reported net profit 925 1,165 1,511 1,726 1,909
that can deter foreign direct investments.
Recurring net profit 866 1,173 1,522 1,734 1,920
Company Profile
AKRA expanded its business area to the distribution of Cash flow (IDRb) Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22F Dec-23F Dec-24F
petroleum products by expanding its existing Change in working capital (428) 2,072 (1,040) (1,025) 1,264
infrastructure. As its business portfolio grew, the Cash flow from operations 1,934 1,834 1,613 2,044 2,268
company also focused on energy, logistics, and Capex (624) (1,138) (444) (706) (1,097)
manufacturing businesses. It also undertakes industrial Cash flow from investing activities (1,827) (599) (1,138) (444) (706)
estate management.
Dividends paid (395) (533) (582) (756) (863)
Cash flow from financing activities (342) (1,218) (1,717) (672) (780)
Cash at beginning of period 1,861 1,549 2,600 2,057 1,590
Net change in cash (235) 17 (1,242) 928 782
Ending balance cash 1,549 2,600 2,057 1,590 3,108
Revenue 30,955 33,566 37,571 37,493 38,582 42,549 21.1% 14.9% 13.2% 35,516 36,147 33,587 6% 7% 27%
Gross Profit 2,691 3,071 3,554 3,140 3,408 3,886 16.7% 11.0% 9.4% 3,022 3,215 3,164 4% 6% 23%
Op. Profit 1,732 2,030 2,276 1,977 2,212 2,440 14.2% 8.9% 7.2% 1,987 2,162 2,390 0% 2% 2%
Net profit 1,320 1,556 1,760 1,511 1,726 1,909 14.5% 10.9% 8.5% 1,461 1,607 1,789 3% 7% 7%
EPS (IDR) 66 78 88 75 86 95 73 79 90
GPM (%) 8.7 9.1 9.5 8.4 8.8 9.1 8.5 8.9 9.4
Op. Margin (%) 5.6 6.0 6.1 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.6 6.0 7.1
Net Margin (%) 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.4 5.3
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
Figure 3: AKRA’s 5-year P/E band Figure 4: AKRA’s 5-year EV/EBITDA band
(x )
(x)
30
+2 SD = 25.3x
25 20
+2 SD = 17.6x
+1 SD = 20.5x
20 15 +1 SD = 13.9x
Mean = 15.5x
15 Mean = 10.2x
PE = 14.0x 10
-1 SD = 10.6x EV/EBITDA = 8.9x
10
5 -1 SD = 6.6x
5 -2 SD = 5.8x -2 SD = 2.9x
0
0 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Figure 5: Derivation of TP
WACC assumptions
Beta 1.1
Equity Risk Premium 6.0%
Risk free rate 7.5%
Cost of Equity 14.2%
Cost of debt after tax 7.4%
Recommendation Chart
Date Recommendation Target Price Price
Price Close
2022-04-28 Buy 1,180 1,070
1,600 Recommendations & Target Price
2022-03-23 Buy 1,060 885
1,500
1,500
1,060
1,180
1,400 2022-01-18 Buy 1,060 810
2022-01-04 Buy 1,060 840
1,200
2019-10-07 Not Rated na 824
1,000 2017-07-26 Buy 1,500 1,290
600
400
Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated
200
Jul-17 Nov-18 Feb-20 May-21
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
3.0
3.1 3.1 3.1
2.0
1.0
0.0
Source: RHB
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