Bumi Resources

Bloomberg: BUMI.IJ | Reuters:BUMI.JK

Coal Mining Sector
12 October 2022 JCI Index: 6,939

BUY (Unchanged) Starting a New Chapter

Target Price (IDR) 215
BUMI telah memperoleh persetujuan pemegang saham untuk NPR-nya, yang akan
Potential Upside (%) 31.1
membantu memperbaiki neraca perseroan dan menjadikan BUMI sebagai perusahaan
dengan kas bersih pada 2023F. Selain itu, kami meyakini bahwa masuknya investor
Price Comparison strategis baru (Grup Salim; 37% kepemilikan efektif) dapat membantu BUMI dalam
Cons. Target Price (IDR) n.a meningkatkan CSR dan tata kelolanya, serta mengembangkan strategi transisi energi
n.a jangka panjang. Kami telah memasukkan NPR dalam perhitungan proyeksi kami, yang
SSI vs. Cons. (%)
meningkatkan proyeksi kami untuk laba bersih BUMI di 2023F sebesar +13.4% berkat
penurunan beban bunga menjadi USD 36 juta (sebelumnya USD 156 juta). Meskipun
Stock Information demikian, dengan meningkatnya jumlah saham yang beredar pasca NPR, kami
menyesuaikan TP kami untuk BUMI menjadi IDR 215 per saham, menyiratkan PE 2023F
Last Price (IDR) 164 sebesar 8.8x.
Shares Issued (Mn) 143,841
NPR adalah kunci untuk neraca yang kuat. RUPSLB BUMI menyetujui skema NPR, di
Market Cap. (IDR Bn) 23,590 mana perusahaan akan menerbitkan 200 miliar saham biasa Seri C dengan harga
52-Weeks High/Low (IDR) 246/50 pelaksanaan IDR 120 (total hasil: USD 1.6 miliar). Dana tersebut akan membantu BUMI
melunasi utang PKPU-nya sebesar ~USD 1.56 milliar dan menghemat beban bunga hingga
3M Avg. Daily Value (IDR Bn) 788.2
~USD 130 juta per tahun. Di samping itu, masuknya investor strategis (Grup Salim; 37%
Free Float (%) 85.2 kepemilikan efektif) dapat membantu BUMI untuk meningkatkan GCG serta kinerjanya ke
Shareholder Structure: depan.
HSBC-Fund SVS A/C (%) 10.3 Harga batu bara mungkin tetap tinggi untuk sementara waktu. World Meteorological
Publik (%) 71.6
Organization (WMO) memperkirakan bahwa cuaca ekstrem mungkin bertahan hingga
awal 2023F, yang tentunya akan mempengaruhi produksi batu bara. Selain itu, tensi
Others (%) 18.1 geopolitik antara Rusia-Ukraina dan peningkatan permintaan batu bara di musim dingin
dapat membantu mendorong harga batu bara naik lebih tinggi lagi. Namun, terdapat
beberapa risiko yang tidak boleh diabaikan, seperti 1) potensi perlambatan ekonomi
Stock Performance
global, 2) peningkatan produksi batu bara di China dan India, dan 3) kembalinya pasokan
(%) YTD 1M 3M 12M batubara Rusia ke pasar menyusul pelonggaran sanksi Eropa pada September 2022 (di
Absolute 144.8 (14.6) 124.7 74.5 FY19, Rusia menguasai 13% pangsa pasar ekspor batu bara dunia.
JCI 5.4 (4.2) 3.2 7.4 Perubahan proyeksi karena tingginya curah hujan. Mengingat tingginya curah hujan di
Return beberapa tambang BUMI, termasuk KPC (Agustus 2022: 170.5 mm, rata-rata 5 tahun:
139.3 (10.4) 121.4 67.0
Relative 125.0 mm) dan Arutmin (Agustus 2022: 482.5 mm, rata-rata 5 tahun: 306.5 mm), kami
memutuskan untuk merevisi perkiraan kami untuk volume produksi BUMI di FY22F-FY24F
Stock Price & Volumes, 12M
masing-masing menjadi 75.5 MT, 78.4 MT, dan 80.2 MT, yang dapat menyebabkan
penurunan -7% pada top line BUMI selama periode tersebut. Namun demikian, kami juga
menaikkan perkiraan kami untuk laba setelah pajak dan kepentingan non-pengendali
(PATMI) BUMI di FY23F (sebesar +13.4%) dan FY24F (+18.1%), berkat penurunan utang
hingga ~USD 1.56 miliar di FY22F-FY24F.
BUY, TP IDR 215. Mengingat peningkatan jumlah saham beredar menjadi 343 miliar (prev:
140 miliar; saham baru perusahaan akan dicatatkan pada 19 Oktober 2022), kami
menyesuaikan TP kami untuk BUMI menjadi IDR 215 (prev: IDR 305) (WACC: 8.8%). TP
kami menyiratkan PE 2023F sebesar 8.8x dan EV/Reserve sebesar USD 2,51/ton di FY22F,
lebih rendah dari pesaing terdekat BUMI (ITMG: USD 7.93/ton; ADRO: USD 3.25/ton).
Risiko: 1) melambatnya produksi; 2) harga batu bara yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan.
Company Background Forecasts and Valuations
Established in 1973, BUMI is currently the largest Y/E Dec 20A 21A 22F 23F 24F
coal producer and owner of the biggest coal Revenue (USD Mn) 790 1,008 2,070 1,843 1,499
reserves (2.5bn tons) and resources (9.8bn tons) in EBITDA (USD Mn) 61 138 484 373 252
Indonesia, contributing 13% (79mn tons) of the EV/EBITDA (x) 42.6 26.6 9.4 10.8 14.9
country’s FY21 coal production. EV/EBITDA (x) (Consolidated) 4.3 2.4 1.4 1.6 2.1
Net Profit (USD Mn) (338) 168 760 580 399
Net Profit Growth (%) n.a. n.a. 352 (24) (31)
EPS (IDR) (73) 32 32 24 17
Jonathan Guyadi P/E Ratio (x) (0.9) 2.2 6.7 8.8 12.8
+62 21 2854 8321 BVPS (IDR) 29 124 113 137 154
jonathan.guyadi@samuel.co.id P/BV Ratio (x) 2.3 0.6 1.9 1.6 1.4
DPS (IDR) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
ROAE (%) (123) 43.1 45.7 19.5 11.5
ROAA (%) (10) 4.4 16.1 10.7 7.0
Interest Coverage (x) 0 0.6 12.1 9.5 6.3
Net Gearing (x) 12 2.0 (0.1) (0.3) (0.3)

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Bumi Resources
Bloomberg: BUMI.IJ | Reuters:BUMI.JK
Coal Mining Sector
12 October 2022 JCI Index: 6,939

Table 1. Earnings Revision

Before Revision Percentage
2022F 2023F 2024F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2022F 2023F 2024F
Revenue 2,289 1,981 1,550 2,070 1,843 1,499 -9.6% -7.0% -3.3%
growth (%) 127.0% -13.4% -21.7% 105.3% -11.0% -18.7%
EBITDA 492 456 270 484 373 252 -1.7% -18.2% -6.7%
growth (%) 347.8% -5.2% -31.2% 250.6% -22.9% -32.5%
Net profit 568 512 337 760 580 399 33.8% 13.4% 18.1%
growth (%) 237.8% -9.9% -34.0% 352.1% -23.6% -31.3%
Source: Company, SSI Research

Figure 1. BUMI’s revenue (by region) 1H22 Figure 2. KPC rainfall (in mm)
350.0
Others
Taiwan 300.0
3% 5%
250.0

200.0
Philippines
6% 150.0
Japan
7% 100.0
Indonesia
46% 50.0
India 0.0
16%

Jul-21

Jul-22
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21

Nov-21

Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Aug-21
Sep-21

Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22

Aug-22
Oct-21
China
Monthly rainfall Average monthly rainfall (Longterm)
17%
Average monthly rainfall (5 years)

Source: Company, SSI research Source: Company, SSI research

Figure 3. Arutmin rainfall (in mm) Figure 4. Oceanic nino index (la nina)
800.0 1.5
700.0
600.0 1

500.0
0.5
400.0
300.0
0
200.0
100.0 -0.5
0.0
Dec-21
Jul-21

Jul-22
Jun-21

Apr-22

Jun-22

Aug-22
Apr-21
May-21

May-22
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Aug-21

Nov-21
Sep-21

Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Oct-21

-1

-1.5
Monthly rainfall Average monthly rainfall (Longterm)
Jun-18

Apr-20

Apr-21
Apr-19
Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-18

Dec-18
Feb-19

Aug-19

Dec-19
Feb-20

Aug-20

Dec-20
Oct-20

Feb-21

Aug-21

Dec-21
Oct-21

Feb-22
Oct-18

Oct-19

Average monthly rainfall (5 years)

Source: Company, SSI research Source: Bloomberg, SSI research

Figure 5. BUMI’s revenue FY20- FY24F Figure 7. EV/reserve (USD/ton)

2,500 120% 9.00
2,070 7.93
100% 8.00
2,000 1,843

1,499 80% 7.00

1,500
60% 6.00
1,008
1,000 790 760 40% 5.00
580
399 20% 4.00
500 3.25
168
0% 3.00 2.51
-
-20% 2.00
0.82
(500) (338) -40% 1.00
2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F
-
Revenue Net Income Revenue growth (%) BUMI PTBA ADRO ITMG

Source: Company, SSI research Source: Bloomberg, company , SSI research

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Bumi Resources
Bloomberg: BUMI.IJ | Reuters:BUMI.JK
Coal Mining Sector
12 October 2022 JCI Index: 6,939

Key Financial Figures

Profit and Loss Cash Flow
Y/E Dec (USD Mn) 20A 21A 22F 23F 24F Y/E Dec (USD Mn) 20A 21A 22F 23F 24F
Revenue 790 1,008 2,070 1,843 1,499 Net Profit (338) 168 760 580 399
Cost of Revenue (699) (806) (1,466) (1,368) (1,172) D&A 31 13 32 34 35
Gross Profit 92 202 604 475 327 Changes in Working Capital 76 (192) (174) 106 (13)
Operating Expense (63) (78) (152) (136) (111) others 312 (394) 238 23 16
G&A Expense (31) (32) (66) (59) (49) Operating CF 81 (405) 855 743 438
Selling & Marketing Expense (33) (46) (86) (76) (62) Capital Expenditure (245) (184) (145) (92) (75)
Operating Profit 28 124 452 339 216 Investing CF (245) (184) (145) (92) (75)
Other Income (133) 380 818 608 415 change in debt 176 (66) (898) (44) (38)
Interest Income 4 1 24 49 63 Dividend - - - - -
Interest Expense (223) (213) (37) (36) (34) Change in other liability (52) 474 (243) (98) (82)
Pre-tax Profit (322) 291 1,256 960 660 Change in Equity 52 346 1,273 - -
Taxes (15) (68) (276) (211) (145) Equity Adjustment (0) (0) - - -
Minority Interest (1) (55) (123) (94) (64) Financing CF 176 753 132 (141) (120)
Profit Sharing 0 0 -98 -75 -51 Net - Cash flow 11 165 843 509 243
Net Profit (337) 223 882 674 463 Cash at Beginning 45 56 221 1,063 1,573
Net Profit to Parent (338) 168 760 580 399 Cash at Ending 56 221 1,063 1,573 1,816

Balance Sheet Key Ratios

Y/E Dec (USD Mn) 20A 21A 22F 23F 24F Y/E Dec 20A 21A 22F 23F 24F
Cash 56 221 1,063 1,573 1,816 Gross Profit Margin (%) 11.6 20.0 29.2 25.8 21.8
Receivables 97 189 376 335 273 Operating Margin (%) 3.6 12.3 21.8 18.4 14.4
Inventory 27 30 87 22 71 Pretax Margin (%) (40.8) 28.9 60.7 52.1 44.0
Others 217 335 134 110 91 Net Profit Margin (%) (42.7) 22.2 42.6 36.6 30.9
Total Current Asset 397 776 1,661 2,040 2,251 Revenue Growth (%) (29.0) 27.6 105.3 (11.0) (18.7)
Net Fixed Asset 20 145 237 279 310 EBITDA Margin (%) 7.7 13.7 23.4 20.2 16.8
Other non current asset 3,011 3,304 3,297 3,292 3,286 EBITDA Growth (%) (21.3) 126.7 250.6 (22.9) (32.5)
Total Asset 3,429 4,224 5,194 5,612 5,847 Net Gearing Ratio (x) 11.9 2.0 (0.1) (0.3) (0.3)
Trade Payables 222 171 326 304 260
ST. Debt 25 1,346 19 17 14 Major Assumptions
Other Current Liabilities 1,051.02 1,359.87 1,108.20 1,088.27 1,068.81 Y/E Dec 20A 21A 22F 23F 24F
Current Liability 1,299 2,877 1,453 1,409 1,344 Arutmin production (million ton) 21.4 22.4 23.5 25.4 26.6
LT. Debt 1,611 194 653 612 576 KPC production (million ton) 59.7 56.4 52.0 53.0 53.6
Other LT. Liabilities 386 506 409 331 269 Arutmin ASP (USD/ton) 34.8 44.1 87.5 72.0 55.6
Total Liability 3,296 3,577 2,515 2,352 2,189 KPC ASP (USD/ton) 47.5 76.5 145.3 117.0 83.4
Total Equity 133 646 2,679 3,260 3,658 Coal Price Benchmark -Newcastle (USD/ton) 60.8 136.0 350.0 180.0 139.0
Total Liability & Equity 3,429 4,224 5,194 5,612 5,847 Coal Price Benchmark - HBA (USD/ton) 58.2 121.5 332.4 170.9 132.0

Source: SSI Research

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Bumi Resources
Bloomberg: BUMI.IJ | Reuters:BUMI.JK
Coal Mining Sector
12 October 2022 JCI Index: 6,939
Consolidated Financial Statements & Peers Valuation

Consolidated P&L
P&L 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F
Revenue consolidated calculated 4,899 4,480 3,585 5,304 9,211 7,683 5,781
COGS 3,814 4,004 3,245 4,038 6,374 5,700 4,506
EBITDA 1,101 613 599 1,557 3,227 2,487 1,799
EBIT 880 424 230 1,113 2,259 1,784 1,202
Net Interest (152) (144) (218) (213) (13) 13 28
EBT 765 261 (192) 987 2,024 1,608 1,081
Net Profit 377 103 (294) 489 1,255 997 702

Source: SSI research

Table 2. Indonesia coal companies under our coverage valuation highlights

Ticker Rating CP TP Upside P/E (x) NP (USDmn) EPSG (%) ROE (%) ROA (%)

(IDR) (IDR) (%) 2022F 2023F 2022F 2023F 2022F 2023F 2022F 2023F 2022F 2023F
ADRO BUY 3,930 4,900 24.7 3.9 6.6 2085.3 1270.5 123.4 -39.1 42.2 21.6 25.0 13.9
ITMG HOLD 41,700 44,000 5.5 3.3 4.6 996.7 688.4 64.5 -30.9 64.7 36.8 49.5 29.2
PTBA* HOLD 4,220 4,500 6.6 4.0 4.6 12425.6 10736.5 57.1 -13.6 45.2 33.6 31.1 24.0
BUMI BUY 164 215 31.1 6.7 8.8 759.6 580.4 352.1 -23.6 45.7 19.5 16.1 10.7
Sector 4.5 6.2 149.3 -26.8 49.4 27.9 30.4 19.4
*PTBA recorded in IDRbn
Source:, SSI research

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 BUMI Resources
Bloomberg: BUMI.IJ | Reuters: BUMI.JK
Coal Mining Sector
12 October 2022 JCI Index: 6,939

Research Team
Prasetya Gunadi Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking prasetya.gunadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8320
Lionel Priyadi Macro Equity Strategist lionel.priyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8854
Fikri C Permana Senior Economist fikri.permana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144
Muhamad Alfatih, CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Analyst m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129
William Mamudi, CFTe, CMT Senior Technical Analyst william.mamudi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382
Yosua Zisokhi Cement , Cigarette, Paper, Plantation,Telco Infra, Chemicals yosua.zisokhi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387
Paula Ruth Telco, Digital Banks paula.ruth@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8332
Olivia Laura Anggita Healthcare, Property, Industrial Estate, Metal Mining olivia.laura@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8346
M. Farras Farhan Media, Poultry, Oil & Gas, Technology farras.farhan@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8346
Pebe Peresia Automotive, Consumer Staples, Retail pebe.peresia@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339
Jonathan Guyadi Banking, Coal jonathan.guyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8321
Adolf Richardo Editor adolf.richardo@samuel.co.id +6221 2864 8397
Ashalia Fitri Yuliana Research Associate ashalia.fitri@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8389
Muhammad Gibran Research Associate muhammad.gibran@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392
Abraham Timothy Research Associate abraham.timothy@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8322

Equity Institutional Team

Benny Bambang Soebagjo Head of Institutional Equity Sales benny.soebagjo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8312
Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399
Anthony Yunus Institutional Equity Sales anthony.yunus@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8314
Widya Meidrianto Institutional Equity Sales widya.meidrianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8317
Fachruly Fiater Institutional Sales Trader fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325
Lucia Irawati Institutional Sales Trader lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173
Alexander Tayus Institutional Equity Dealer alexander.tayus@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8319
Leonardo Christian Institutional Equity Dealer leonardo.christian@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8147

Equity Retail Team

Joseph Soegandhi Head of Equity joseph.soegandhi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8872
Damargumilang Head of Equity Retail damargumilang@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8309
Denzel Obaja Head of Community & Partnership denzel.obaja@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8342
Clarice Wijana Head of Equity Sales Support clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395
Gitta Wahyu Retnani Equity Sales & Trainer gitta.wahyu@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8365
Vincentius Darren Equity Sales darren@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8348
Michael Alexander Equity Sales michael.alexander@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8369
Sylviawati Equity Sales sylviawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8112
Wandha Ahmad Equity Sales wandha.ahmad@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8316
Lie Eva Equity Sales eva.marcelina@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8313
Handa Sandiawan Equity Sales handa.sandiawan@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8302
Wahyudi Budiyono Dealer wahyudi.budiyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8152

Fixed Income Sales Team

R. Virine Tresna Sundari Head of Fixed Income virine.sundari@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8170
Rudianto Nugroho Fixed Income Sales rudianto.nugroho@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8306
Sany Rizal Keliobas Fixed Income Sales sany.rizal@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8337
Safitri Fixed Income Sales safitri@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8376
Nadya Attahira Fixed Income Sales nadya.attahira@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8305

DISCLAIMER: Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and
no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The
analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any
recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no
circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all
investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot
be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

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