CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

VIETNAM
ECONOMIC INSIGHT
DURING PANDEMIC
SHOCK

Created for
Central Bank and Monetary Policy Final Project
Dava Kenes Amanda Putera
H14199001
CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

Get the interactive Vietnam Economic Insight dashboard

below (open it in EXCEL instead of SPREADSHEET)
ipb.link/viet-macrodashboard

CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

Macroeconomic
Indicator
Insight
Monetary
Foreign Trade
Global Commodities
Source of Data : CEIC

CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY MONETARY OUTLOOK

56%
08

of totalinflasi
Tingkat salesVietnam
come from social
cenderung naikmedia
sebelum Pandemi pada tahun 2019. Inflasi mengalami penurunan atau anti
inflasi tahun 2020 ketika Pandemi mulai masuk bahkan terjadi deflasi (penurunan harga secara umum) pada
Januari 2021. Inflasi mengalami tren peningkatan secara moderat sejak awal 2021 hingga September 2022.
Angka inflasi tertinggi tercatat pada Januari 2020 sebesar 6.43 % dan terendah Januari 2021 sebesar -0,97 %.
Nilai CV (Coefficient of Variation) tertinggi terjadi pada tahun 2021 sebesar 60.31 % diikuti pada 2020 sebesar
52.13 %. Hal ini menunjukkan pada periode puncak Pandemi inflasi mengalami fluktuasi yang relatif lebih tinggi.

CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY MONETARY OUTLOOK

Suku Bunga Kebijakan Vietnam cenderung konstan di kisaran 4-4.25 % sebelum Pandemi pada tahun 2019. Suku
bunga diturunakn mulai tahun 2020 ketika Pandemi mulai masuk bahkan terjadi penurunan inflasi juga deflasi.
Suku bunga berada di era suku bunga rendah dengan angka 2.5 % untuk pemulihan ekonomi hingga dinaikkan 100
basis poin pada September 2022. Akan tetapi, suku bunga tidak setinggi masa pra pandemic.
Suku bunga kebijakan 2.5 % pada akhir 2020 hingga pertengahan 2022 saat masa pemulihan ekonomi pasca
pandemi mencapai titik terendah dalam 1 dekade terakhir.

CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY MONETARY OUTLOOK

56%
08

Nilai tukar VND/USD cenderung terapresiasi sebelum Pandemi pada tahun 2019. Vietnam Dong mengalami tren
of total salespada
depresiasiatau come from
tahun social
2020 media
hingga Semester I tahun 2022. Meskipun terdepresiasi, tetapi tetap lebih tinggi
dibandingkan awal tahun 2019. Nilai tukar Vietnam baru mengalami tren apresiasi kembali sejak Kuartal III 2022
hingga September 2022 terapresiasi melebihi titik sebelum pandemi.
Nilai tukar tertinggi tercatat pada September 2022 sebesar 23.292.
Nilai CV (Coefficient of Variation) tertinggi terjadi pada tahun 2019 sebesar 0.45 % diikuti pada 2022 sebesar 0.28
%. Hal ini menunjukkan pada periode pre dan pasca pandemi yang relatif lebih tinggi. Saat pandemi (2020 dan
2021), meskipun terjadi tren depresiasi namun gejolak nilai tukar tidak terlalu tajam.

CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK

Nilai ekspor total Vietnam secara

keseluruhan mengalami tren peningkatan
pada tahun 2019-2022. Terdapat periode-
periode kemerosotan tajam kebanyakan di

56%
08 awal tahun fiskal seperti Februari 2019,
Januari 2020, April 2020, Februari 2021,
dan Februari 2022.
Trade balance Vietnam cenderung surplus
selama periode 2019-20222. Mengalami
beberapa kali titik defisit seperti Kuartal I
sampai Kuartal III tahun 2021.
of total sales come from social media Nilai CV (Coefficient of Variation) tertinggi
terjadi pada tahun 2020 sebesar 15.88 %
diikuti pada 2021 sebesar 12.17 %. Hal ini
menunjukkan pada periode puncak
Pandemi mengalami gejolak yang relatif
lebih tinggi.

CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK

Nilai impor total Vietnam secara

keseluruhan mengalami tren peningkatan
pada tahun 2019-2022. Terdapat
periode-periode kemerosotan tajam

56%
kebanyakan di awal tahun fiskal seperti
08 Februari 2019, Januari 2020, April
2020, Februari 2021, dan Februari
2022.
Trade balance Vietnam cenderung
surplus selama periode 2019-20222.
Mengalami beberapa kali titik defisit
seperti Kuartal I sampai Kuartal III tahun
of total sales come from social media 2021.
Nilai CV (Coefficient of Variation)
tertinggi terjadi pada tahun 2020 sebesar
13.91 %. Hal ini menunjukkan pada
periode puncak Pandemi mengalami
gejolak yang relatif lebih tinggi.

CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY GLOBAL COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

Harga minyak mentah dunia mengalami shock

penurunan tajam akibat pandemi. Titik terendah
terjadi pada bulan April 2020. Pada saat itu terjadi
penurunan harga 69 % secara YoY. Hal ini

56%
mungkin disebabkan oleh pembatasan mobilitas
08 yang berdampak pada pemberhentian suplai dan
turunnya demand.
Tren kenaikan terjadi seiring masa pemulihan
ekonomi global. Kenaikan ini mungkin disebabkan
oleh pemulihan demand yang lebih kuat dibanding
suplai atau fenomena commodity supercycle.
Konflik geopolitik Ukraina Rusia menjadi katalis
of total sales come from social media kenaikan harga pada Semester I tahun 2022.
Kemudian mengalami periode penurunan Masuk
Semester II.
Nilai CV (Coefficient of Variation) tertinggi terjadi
pada tahun 2020 sebesar 25.71 %. Hal ini
menunjukkan pada periode puncak Pandemi
mengalami gejolak yang relatif lebih tinggi.

CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY GLOBAL COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

Harga gas dunia cenderung stabil baik

sebelum dan saat masa pandemi. Hal ini
menunjukkan shock pandemi tidak
berdampak banyak pada harga gas dunia.

56%
08 Akan tetapi, harga mulai mengalami
peningkatan sejak 2021 hingga 2022.
Peningkatan drastis terjadi di Semester I
tahun 2022 yang mungkin dikatalis oleh
konflik geopolitik.
Nilai CV (Coefficient of Variation) tertinggi
terjadi pada tahun 2021 sebesar 47.91 %.
of total sales come from social media Hal ini menunjukkan pada periode Pandemi
harga mengalami gejolak yang relatif lebih
tinggi.

CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

Monetary
Policy
Responses
During Pandemic Shock
 CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

Monetary Authority
Source of Data : sbv.gov.vn

Otoritas moneter di Vietnam adalah State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Kebijakan yang
dikeluarkan proaktif dan fleksibel serta berkoordinasi erat dengan kebijakan fiskal dan
kebijakan makroekonomi lainnya.

Major Responsibilities
1. Stabilizing the value of Vietnamese currency.
2. Ensuring safe and sound banking operations and the system of credit institutions.
3. Ensuring safety and efficiency of national payment system.
4. Contributing to socio – economic development under the socialist orientation.

Monetary
1. Control inflation within the target level of about 4% for 2021.
2. Supporting the macro-economic stability.
3. Contributing to the economic growth recovery.
4. Maintaining the stability of the forex and the money markets.

Monetary Policy Responses
Source of Data : Asian Development Bank Covid-19 Policy Database, sbv.gov.vn

No. Measures Policy Action

(i) 16 March 2020, The SBV cut benchmark policy rates by 50–100 basis points (bps), the short-
term deposit rates cap by 25–30 bps, and the short-term lending rates cap for priority sectors
by 50 bps; raised its remuneration rates on required VND reserves by 20 bps, and also raised
interest rates by the same amount on Vietnam Deposit Insurance, Vietnam Social Policy Bank
(VSPB), Vietnam Development Bank, People Credit Funds and microfinance institutions’
deposits at the SBV; (ii) 31 March 2020, SBV has instructed CIs to actively reduce bonus and
Interest
salary, cut other operating costs, timely adjust business plans (including not paying cash
1. Rate
dividends), and use the saved resources to reduce interests; (iii) VSPB also proposed to the
Adjustment
authorities to reduce its interest rate charged on loans to the poor household by 15% and to
other eligible policy borrowers by 10% starting from April 1 to-end-2020; (iv) 13 May 2020,
Further reduction in key policy rates to 4.5% (from 5%) for the refinancing rate and to 3% (from
3.5%) for the discount rate, and 5.5% (from 6%) for the overnight lending interest rate in inter-
bank electronic payment and lending; (v) 01 October 2020, Further reduction in key policy rates
to 4% (from 4.5%) for the refinancing rate and to 2.5% (from 3%) for the discount rate.

Monetary Policy Responses
Source of Data : Asian Development Bank Covid-19 Policy Database, sbv.gov.vn

No. Measures Policy Action

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) stated that it is ready to provide

liquidity support, including through open market operations and
2. Liquidity Support
refinancing windows, for Credit Institutions (CIs) to implement the
government’s programs and help CIs to address nonperforming loans.

i) The SBV is instructed to provide refinancing with 0% interest rate to

VBSP for providing unsecured loans with 0% interest rate to affected
firms for making suspension pay to their workers. The total loan value
3. Long Term Lending
is estimated at VND16 trillion (0.3% of GDP). (ii) 30 May 2020, 2%
reduction in interest rates for direct and indirect loans to SMEs from
the SME Development Fund.

Monetary Policy Responses
Source of Data : Asian Development Bank Covid-19 Policy Database, sbv.gov.vn

No. Measures Policy Action

(1) Continuing to announce the central exchange rate daily based on

reference to domestic and foreign market movements (2) During the
period when VND was under pressure to depreciate due to the
4. Exchange Rate
complicated situation of the Covid-19 pandemic (March 2020), the
SBV adjusted the foreign currency selling rate and actively
communicated to stabilize the foreign market

CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

Fiscal Policy
Responses
During Pandemic Shock

Fiscal Policy Responses
Source of Data : Asian Development Bank Covid-19 Policy Database, sbv.gov.vn

No. Measures Policy Action

30 May 2020, 70% reduction in remaining domestic and foreign

1. Budget Reallocation conferences and missions funding of ministries, central agencies, and
localities (with a few exceptions) and 10% saving.

Direct spending for COVID 19 Prevention. (i) The state budget for
2020 allocated VND 16.2 trillion (0.3% GDP) to prevent and control
epidemics, in which VND9.5 trillion (0.2% GDP) for purchasing medical
equipment and materials to prevent and combat epidemics; VND6.7
2. Health Budget Support trillion (0.1% GDP) is for special allowances for forces engaged in
epidemic prevention and control; expenses for isolated people, medical
examination and treatment during the isolation period. (ii) 6 May 2020,
Temporary elimination of import taxes on medical and protective
equipment.

Fiscal Policy Responses
Source of Data : Asian Development Bank Covid-19 Policy Database, sbv.gov.vn

No. Measures Policy Action

9 May 2020, The Ministry of Labor, Invalids, and Social Affairs

3. Indirect Income Support proposed the bolstering of the Unemployment Insurance Fund
Balance by VND3-5 trillion to retrain the labor force.

(i) Deferral of tax land rental payment (for 5 months) to support

affected entities and individuals (ii) cash transfer package worth of
VND36 trillion (0.6% of GDP) (iii) cut electricity tariffs for 3 months
4. Subsidies to support firms and households affected by COVID-19 (iv) cut of
telecommunication charges (v) 30 May 2020, 15% reduction in
payable land rent in 2020 for enterprises, organizations, households
and individuals

Fiscal Policy Responses
Source of Data : Asian Development Bank Covid-19 Policy Database, sbv.gov.vn

No. Measures Policy Action

(i) Import duty exemption for medical supplies and equipment

serving COVID-19 prevention; preferential import and export
tariffs for businesses operating in the fields (ii) Lowered business
registration fees and other fees/charges (iii) The government
proposed to National Assembly for the reduction of corporate
income tax from 20% to 15-17% for about 700,000 SMEs and
5. Taxation
MSMEs from 1 July 2020 (iv) 5 June 2020, The National
Assembly approved the increase in family allowances deduction
of personal income tax from the current 9 million VND to 11
million VND / month for taxpayers, adjusted from 3.6 million
VND to 4.4. million dong / month for dependents from 1 July
2020 (v) Plan to reduce 30% of environmental protection tax

CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

Non-Economic
Policy Responses
During Pandemic Shock

Non-Economic Policy Responses
Source of Data : Asian Development Bank Covid-19 Policy Database

No. Measures Policy Action

(i) On 9 March 2020, the government tightened entry

restrictions: (ii) On 17 March 2020, the government announced
that it stops visa issuance to foreign visitors for 30 days fromm
18 March (iv) 29 April 2020, More frequent domestic flights and
local trains were introduced to connect big cities and provinces
and up to 50% of public transportation has resumed with full
1. Mobilization
operations in low risk provinces. (v) 19 July 2021, The
Government has ordered the implementation of Directive 16 in
the southern provinces of Vietnam no later than midnight, 19
July 2021 until mid Directive 16 mandates closures of non-
essential businesses, restaurants, bans public gatherings, and
severely limits transportation services.

Non-Economic Policy Responses
Source of Data : Asian Development Bank Covid-19 Policy Database

No. Measures Policy Action

(i) The government announced the National Epidemic status

on 1 April 2020 and imposed social isolation in national
scale from 1 April to 22 April. Restricitions were removed
2. Business Operation on 23 April, except for few districts in Hanoi, Ha Giang, and
Bac Ninh provinces. (ii) 7 May 2020, Non- essential services
(except dancing clubs and karaoke) have reopened since 7
May.

CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

Fear of Floating Phenomena

Analysis (Vietnam Case)
During Pandemic Shock
 CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

LATAR BELAKANG METODE

Banyak negara menerapkan sistem Data :
nilai tukar sistem menengah (di KERANGKA
1. Indikator Policy Rate sebagai variabel
antara hard peg dan purely peg). dependen.
Fenomena fear of floating ini 2. Indikator Inflasi CPI sebagai variabel
merupakan upaya dalam menyiasati NILAI independen.
impossible trinity dalam kebijakan INFLATION
TUKAR 3. Indikator Nilai Tukar (VND/USD)
moneter dan makro lainnya (Juhro, sebagai variabel independen.
2020). Dalam laman SBV juga Metode :
disebutkan mengontol inflasi dan nilai Regresi berganda OLS (Ordinary Least
tukar menjadi tanggung jawab. Oleh Square).
karena itu, dapat dicari tahu dengan
menggunakan data pada analisis POLICY RATE
grafik sebelumnya apakah inflasi atau
nilai tukar yang lebih berpengaruh
pada penetapan suku bunga
kebijakan SBV saat periode pandemi
Covid-19.
CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY
CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

Pembahasan
Tahapan :
1. Data preparation di excel -> melakukan logaritma variabel
untuk mengurangi keragaman data dan menghilangkan satuan.
2. Input data dari excel ke Stata.
3. Membentuk variabel time series di Stata.
4. Mencari nilai koefisien baku untuk melihat variabel mana yang
paling berpengaruh.
CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

Pembahasan

Setelah didapatkan nilai koefisien baku masing-masing variabel independen, dapat

disimpulkan bahwa variabel inflasi berhubungan positif dengan policy rate, sedangkan
variabel nilai tukar (VND/USD) berhubungan negatif dengan policy rate. Hal ini sesuai
dengan teori.
Nilai koefisien baku menunjukkan bahwa variabel nilai tukar lebih berpengaruh
terhadap policy rate relatif terhadap variabel inflasi. Selama periode 2019-2022,
penentuan Policy Rate Vietnam lebih dipengaruhi oleh nilai tukar dibanding inflasi.
CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

Pembahasan

Berdasarkan uji Gauss Markov dengan command hettest, diperoleh p-value

yang menyimpulkan tidak tolak H0 sehingga model sudah homokesdastis.
CENTRAL BANK AND MONETARY POLICY

Pembahasan
Berdasarkan uji autokorelasi,
awalnya diperoleh kesimpulan
bahwa model ada autokorelasi
dengan uji bgodfrey.
Telah dilakukan perbaikan dengan
newey west dan menghasilkan
model dengan koefisien yang sama
namun standar eror yang lebih
baik.


TERIMA
KASIH !