SMARTSAHAM MASTERCLASS

“ The law of supply and demand is more important than all the
analyst opinions on Wall Street ”‖

MAA

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 ISI KANDUNGAN

1. Pengenalan

2. Apa itu Technical Analysis?

3. Time Frame

4. Pembinaan Chart

5. Methods in TA

6. Teori & Indeks

7. Trading Techniques/Setup

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 1. PENGENALAN

BAGAIMANA INGIN BERMULA DENGAN

BURSA SAHAM?

1. Buka CDS akaun

2. Bagaimana untuk buka CDS akaun?

 Berjumpa dengan remiser/dealer
 Pergi terus ke cawangan Broker (walk in)

3. Apa yang diperlukan untuk membuka CDS akaun?

 Salinan kad pengenalan
 Bank statement
 Bayaran RM10 (tidak termasuk GST)

4. Daftar online trading platform

5. Deposit duit ke dalam trust account

6. Buat analisa kaunter yang ingin di beli

7. Beli

8. Jual

9. Keluarkan duit dari trust account

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 BAGAIMANA MENGANALISA KAUNTER
SAHAM BERPOTENSI

1. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS (FA)

 Menjawab persoalan kenapa sesuatu saham itu bergerak

 Mengkaji latar belakang sesuatu syarikat
 Mengambil kira isu semasa dan hal ehwal berkaitan
syarikat
 Sangat berkait rapat dengan nilai semasa, perkembangan,
aktiviti, pentadbiran dan untung rugi syarikat

2. THECNICAL ANALYSIS (TA)

 Menjawab persoalan bila sesuatu saham itu akan bergerak

atau berubah harganya
 Mengkaji pergerakan harga semasa berpandukan
pergerakan harga yang terdahulu
 Menggunakan ―chart‖

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 2. TEKNIKAL ANALISIS
Mengkaji pergerakan dan prestasi harga semasa dan akan datang,
berpandukan kepada prestasi harga sebelum ini. Teknikal analisis
membuat analisa berpandukan chart (carta).

―The future can be found in the past‖

Penganalisa Teknikal (technical analyst) hanya mengkaji sesuatu

instrumen kewangan (saham, komoditi, pasaran masa hadapan, forex
dll.) hanya berdasarkan carta dan bukan berdasarkan analisa
fundamental, berita atau keadaan ekonomi semasa. Ini kerana mereka
percaya bahawa semua perkara dan maklumat fundamental sudah
digambarkan dengan reaksi pergerakan harga sesuatu instrumen
kewangan.

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 TA DEFINATION
( by John J. Murphy )

 TA is the study of market action, primarily through the use

of charts, for the purpose of forecasting future price
trends.
 3 principles of Market action
o Price
o Volume
o Open & close price

OBJEKTIF TEKNIKAL ANALISIS

1. Memilih kaunter yang berpotensi
2. Memilih waktu & harga yang tepat untuk membeli
3. Memilih waktu & harga yang tepat untuk menjual

10 MOST IMPORTANT RULES OF

TECHNICAL TRADING
( by John J. Murphy )

I. Map the Trends

II. Spot the Trend and Go With It
III. Find the Low and High of It
IV. Know How Far to Backtrack
V. Draw the Line
VI. Follow That Average
VII. Learn the Turns
VIII. Know the Warning Signs
IX. Trend or Not a Trend?
X. Know the Confirming Signs

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 DOW THEORY

6 PAKSI KEPADA TEORI DOW

1. The average discount everything

2. The market Has 3 trends
3. Major trends have 3 Phases
4. The average must confirms each other
5. Volume must confirm the trend
6. A trends Is Assumed to be in effect until it gives definite signals
that it has re6versed

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 3. TIME FRAME

SIAPA ANDA?
INVESTOR vs TRADER

• Long term (>6 bulan)

• Medium term (2 minggu – 6 bulan)
• Short term (1 hari – 2 minggu)
• Daily (1 bid – 3 bid)

________________________________________________________

Investor (Pick-up/Hold)

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 Investor

Contra Player

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Aggressive Trader

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 4. PEMBINAAN CHART (CARTA)

Chart atau carta terbina dari pergerakan harga & volume sesuatu
instrument kewangan. Ada pelbagai jenis chart yang boleh digunakan
dalam membuat analisa teknikal.

Volume adalah bilangan unit transaksi yang terkumpul dalam satu-

satu time frame, samada dari pembelian atau penjualan. Di dalam
saham, sesuatu kaunter yang mempunyai volume yang tinggi,
menandakan kaunter tersebut adalah aktif.

Time Frame (garis masa) merujuk kepada jumlah maklumat dalam

chart yang dipilih untuk membuat sesuatu analisa teknikal.

Sesebuah chart yang bagus perlulah mempunyai :

KANDUNGAN CHART
1. Nama Kaunter
2. Harga (Price)
3. Candle Stick
4. Volume
5. Volume Bar
6. Petunjuk (Indicators)
7. Jangka Masa (Time Frame)
8. Alatan Melukis (Drawing Tools)

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 CHART (CARTA)
Merupakan asas kepada teknikal analisis. Sebuah carta yang
menceritakan segala-galanya.

JENIS-JENIS 'CHART' (CARTA)

― “ Charts record and represent pure facts on thousands of stocks.

Prices that actually occurred are a result of daily supply and demand
in the largest auction marketplace in the world. Facts on markets are
much more reliable than 98% of the personal opinions and academic
theories circulating about the stock market today ‖”

4 JENIS CHART UTAMA

1. Bar chart
2. Line chart
3. Point and figure chart
4. Candlesticks chart

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 CANDLESTICK CHART
(ROSHOKU ASHI)

Candle stick chart adalah suatu cara untuk melakar chart. Merupakan
jenis chart paling popular dan paling meluas penggunaannya dalam
membuat analisa teknikal di seluruh dunia.

Roshoku Ashi – Candle foot

Foot merujuk kepada jejak atau rekod terdahulu. Ashi juga boleh
diterjemah kepada ‗tapak kaki‘ (foot print).

Mula diperkenalkan di barat sejak tahun 1990 oleh Steve Nelson.

Kelebihan
 Menunjukkan maklumat yang lebih banyak berbanding dari
jenis-jenis chart yang lain
 Leading indicator – boleh menunjukkan tanda-tanda reversal
lebih awal dari jenis chart yg lain
 Pictorial – ― a picture is worth a thousand words ‖
 Boleh digabungkan dengan pelbagai indicator
 Boleh digunakan dalam semua jenis time frame dan apa sahaja
jenis instrumen kewangan
 Telah terbukti bagus dan berkesan sejak 300 tahun lalu

Kelemahan
 Lebih rumit untuk membaca dan menganalisanya berbanding
chart lain

4 data diperlukan untuk melukis atau merekod data menggunakan

Candlestick chart :

1. Open Price (Harga Buka)

2. Close Price (Harga Tutup)
3. Highest Price (Harga Tertinggi)
4. Lowest Price (Harga Terendah)

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 TIME FRAME vs CHART
Long Term : > 6 Bulan
Chart - Monthly / Weekly / Daily

Medium Term : 2 Minggu – 6 Bulan

Chart = Monthly / Weekly / Daily

Short Term : 1 Hari – 2 Minggu

Chart = Daily / 4 Hourly / 1 Hourly / 15 Min

Intraday : 1 Bid – 2 Bid

Chart = Daily / 15 min / 5 min / 1 Min

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 5. METHODS IN TA

A. Trend
B. Volume
C. Price
D. Support & Resistance
E. Candle stick pattern
F. Line studies
 Support & Resistance
 Trend Line
 Trend Channel
 Fibonacci
 Gann
G. Elliot wave theory
H. Chart Pattern
I. Gap
J. Indicators
 Candlestick Pattern
 Moving Average
 Stochastic
 MACD
 Average Directional Index (ADI/ADX)
 Bollinger Band
 GMMA
 DDI
 RSI
 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

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 TREND (ARUS)

TREND adalah arah atau hala tuju pasaran (market). Pasaran tidak
bergerak samada menaik atau menurun dalam garisan lurus, tetapi
bergerak secara berombak atau membentuk ‘zig zag‘.

Ombak atau pergerakan secara ‘zig zag‘ ini membentuk puncak dan
dasar yang disebut sebagai HIGH & LOW
3 trend utama :
1. Bullish : Menaik
2. Bearish : Menurun
3. No Trend / Sideway : Tiada Trend / Mendatar

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 VOLUME
 VOLUME adalah jumlah aktiviti atau transaksi untuk satu tempoh
masa pasaran. Volume adalah gabungan keseluruhan dari trasaksi
unit-unit saham yang dijual dan dibeli.

 Perkaitan antara HARGA & VOLUME

1. Price Up + Volume increasing = Sustainable
2. Price Up + Volume Low = Not Sustainable / Fake
3. Price down + Volume High = Panic Selling
4. Price down / sideway + Volume decreasing = Watch list
(Diminishing volume)

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 Price up + Volume Medium / High = Sustainable

 Price up + Volume Low = Not Sustainable / Fake

 Price down + Volume High = Panic Selling

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 Price down/sideway + Volume down (diminishing) = Watch list

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 SIFAT VOLUME
1. Pergerakan harga kebiasaannya berkadar terus dengan volume.

 Volume rendah + Harga naik = Bearish

 Volume sederhana + Harga naik = Bullish
 Volume tinggi + Harga naik = Bullish
 Volume tinggi + Harga sederhana = Bearish

 Volume rendah + Harga turun = Bullish

 Volume sederhana + Harga turun = Bearish
 Volume tinggi + Harga turun = Bearish
 Volume tinggi + Harga turun sederhana = Bullish

2. Volume yang terlalu tinggi selalunya berkait rapat dengan perubahan

kepada trend harga.

3. Volume yang terlalu rendah kebiasaannya akan disusuli oleh

kenaikan volume yang tinggi.

4. Julat harga yang sederhana atau besar, dan dibina dari volume yang
sederhana, menandakan bullish trend (menunjukkan bilangan
penjual yang sedikit).

5. Julat harga yg besar yang di bina dari volume yang tinggi,

menandakan bullish trend (menunjukkan bilangan pembeli yang
ramai).

6. Percubaan (menaikkan/menurunkan harga) dan correction

kebiasaannya dihasilkan dengan volume yang rendah.

7. Volume akan bertambah bila mana berlakunya technical breakout.

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 SIFAT HARGA
HARGA vs PER-BID
• RM0.000 – RM0.995 : 0.5 sen
• RM1.000 – RM9.990 : 1 sen
• >RM10.00 : 2 sen
HARGA vs VOLUME
• RM0.000 – RM0.500 : > Juta
• RM0.500 – RM1.000 : > Ratus Ribu
• RM1.000 – RM5.000 : > Puluh Ribu
• RM5.000 – RM10.000 : > Ribu

Namun pun begitu, volume sebenar bagi sesebuah kaunter adalah

bergantung kepada kaunter itu sendiri.

Setiap kaunter/syarikat adalah unik dan mempunyai volume atau

cerita yang tersendiri.

Jumlah "volume vs harga" adalah berlainan dari dari setiap kaunter,

walaupun mempunyai julat harga yang hampir sama.

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 SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Selepas konsep trend, price dan volume, konsep utama seterusnya ialah support
(sokongan) dan resistance (rintangan). Anda sering akan mendengar
penganalisa teknikal (chartist) menyebut tentang 'Bullish' dan 'Bearish', sebuah
pertarungan di antara pembeli (peminta / demand) dan penjual (pembekal /
supply).

Support dan resistance di lihat sebagai suatu yang penting dari segi psikologi
pasaran antara penjual dan pembeli.

Support dan resistance menunjukkan dan menggambarkan, suatu tahap di mana

banyak peniaga bersedia untuk membeli unit-unit saham (dalam kes support)
atau menjual unit-unit saham (dalam kes resistance). Apabila garisan support
dan resistance ini pecah, harga akan bergerak ke support dan resistance yang
baru.

Apabila suatu garisan support dan resistance pecah, ini dusebut sebagai
technical breakout.

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 TREND LINE
Trend Line merujuk kepada Support & Resistance yang dilukis berdasarkan
trend semasa sesuatu kaunter / instrument kewangan

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 CANDLESTICK PATTERN

APA YANG PERLU DIPERHATIKAN?

1. Trend – Bullish/Bearish/Sideway
2. Support Resistance & Trend Line
3. Jenis Candlestick – Doji/Hammer etc
4. Kedudukan/posisi – Top/Bottom/Tengah2
5. Confirmation candle!!

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BULLISH REVERSALS 4 CANDLES PATTERN
1 CANDLE PATTERN Concealing Swallow
Long White Body (Bullish
Morubozu) 5 CANDLES PATTERN
Hammer Breakaway
Inverted Hammer Ladder Bottom
Belt Hold

2 CANDLES PATTERN
Engulfing Pattern
Harami
Harami Cross
Piercing Line
BULLISH
Doji star CONTINUATION
Meeting Lines 2 CANDLES PATTERN
Kicking Separating Lines
Homing Pigeon On Neck Line
Matching Low In Neck Line

3 CANDLES PATTERN 3 CANDLES PATTERN

Three White Soldiers Upside Tasuki Gap
Morning Star Side by Side White Lines
Morning Doji Star Upside Gap Three Methods
Abandoned Baby
Tri-Star 4 CANDLES PATTERN
Three Inside Up Three Line Strike
Thee Outside Up
Unique Three Revers Bottom 5 CANDLES PATTERN
Three Stars in the South Rising Three Methods
Stick Sandwich

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BEARISH REVERSALS 5 CANDLES PATTERN
1 CANDLE PATTERN Breakaway
Long Black Body Latter Top
Hanging Man
Shooting star
Belt Hold

2 CANDLES PATTERN
Engulfing Pattern
Harami
Harami Cross
Dark Cloud Cover BEARISH
Doji Star
Meeting Lines CONTINUATION
Kicking 2 CANDLES PATTERN
Matching High Separating Lines
On Neck Line
3 CANDLES PATTERN In Neck Line
Three Black Crows
Evening Star 3 CANDLES PATTERN
Evening Doji Star Downside Tasuki Gap
Abandoned Baby Side by Side White Lines
Tri-Star Downside Gap Three Methods
Three Inside Down
4 CANDLES PATTERN
Three Outside Down Three Line Strike
Upside Gap Two Crows
Identical Three Crows 5 CANDLES PATTERN
Deliberation Falling Three Methods
Advance Block
Two Crows

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 LINE STUDIES

• Support & Resistance

• Trend lines
• Trend Channel

• Fibonacci Studies
o Fibonacci Retracement
o Fibonacci Arcs
o Fibonacci Fans
o Time Zone

• Gann Angles / Fan

TRENDLINES

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 FIBONACCI
(1.618/0.618)
• Merupakan suatu nisbah semulajadi yang istimewa dan unik, untuk
menggambarkan nisbah bagi segala-galanya di alam semesti ini. Dari
blok bangunan kecil alam semulajadi, seperti atom, kepada corak yang
paling maju dalam alam semesta, seperti tubuh badan manusia dan
cakerawala semesta yg amat besar.

• Juga disebut 'Golden Ratio', 'Divine Proportion'.

• Terbentuk dari satu siri no : 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 dan
seterusnya sehingga infiniti. Siri nombor ini terbentuk dari hasil tambah
dua nombor yang sebelumnya. Contoh, 1+1=2, 1+2=3, 2+3=5 dan
seterusnya.

• Nisbah yang terbentuk antara mana-mana dua nombor ini, dan nombor di
sebelahnya yang lebih besar akan menghampiri 0.618. Contoh :
o 1/1 = 1.00
o ½ = 0.5
o 2/3 = 0.67
o 3/5 = 0.60
o 5/8 = 0.625
o 8/13 = 0.615
o 13/21 = 0.619 dan seterusnya
• Nisbah yang terbentuk antara mana-mana dua nombor ini, dan nombor di
sebelahnya yang lebih kecil akan menghampiri 1.618. Contohnya :
o 13/8 = 1.625
o 21/13 = 1.615
o 34/21 = 1.619 dan seterusnya

• Nisbah yang terbentuk antara mana-mana dua nombor ini, dan nombor
selang satu darinya yg lebih kecil akan menghampiri 2.618, yang lebih
besar pula akan menghampiri 0.382. Contohnya :
o 13/34 = 0.382
o 34/13 = 2.615

• Dalam TA, nisbah ini diterjemahkan kepada 3 peratusan utama - 38.2%,

50% dan 61.8%. Namun boleh digandakan dan di panjangkan (extend)
bila kita hendak menggunanya, seperti 23.6%, 161.8%, 423% dan lain-
lain.

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• Jenis - jenis garisan Fibonacci

 Fibonacci Retracement
 Fibonacci Arcs
 Fibonacci Fans
 Time Zone

• Kebiasaannya garisan-garisan yang dibentuk oleh Fibonacci boleh

digunakan untuk :

 Garisan support & resistance

 Trend Channel
 Membuat jangkaan bagi pergerakan harga yang akan dating
(Predicting the future!)

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 THE GANNS STUDIES

• Gann’s studies dikembang oleh seorang tokoh matematik, W. D. Gann.

Nama beliau menjadi terkenal selepas beliau mendakwa yang beliau boleh
membuat jangkaan masa depan. Beliau juga adalah bapa kepada teknikal
analisis.

• Berdasar teknik yang dikembangkan oleh Gann, 3 faktor utama digunakan

dalam teknikal analisis, iaitu :

Price (harga), Time (masa), Range (perbezaan harga)

Pasaran bergerak dalam pusingan-pusingan tertentu
Pasaran adalah sebuah geometry dan mempunyai formula terendiri

• Berdasarkan 3 faktor di atas, Gann membuat 3 strategi :

 Price study : dengan menggunakan garisan support & resistance, pivot

points dan sudut (angles)
 Time study : dengan melihat keapda sejarah harga lepas, dan dikaitkan
dengan keadaan semasa yang berlaku
 Pattern study : dengan melihat kepada bentuk-bentuk tertentu seperti
trend lines, trend channels dan chart patterns.

• Contoh Ganns Study :

 Ganns Angle / Fan

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 ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY

• Market bergerak dalam kitaran yang tertentu.

• Kitaran ini berulang-ulang dalam bentuk ombak (waves)
• Fibonacci ratio adalah asas dalam pengiraan dan pembentukan
Elliot Wave.

• 5 waves akan bergerak dalam satu trend (main phase), kemudian

disusuli oleh 3 waves dalam trend berlawanan (corrective
phase).
o 1-3-5 : impulsive wave
o 2-3 : corrective wave
o a-b-c : bigger corrective wave

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• 5-3 waves membentuk satu kitaran yang lengkap.
• Kitaran ini akan berulang-ulang, tetapi dalam tempoh masa yang
berbeza-beza.
• 3 aspek penting dalam ‗wave theory‘
o Bentuk (pattern)
o Nisbah (ratio)
o Masa (time)
• Wave ke 4 kebiasaannya menjadi support yang dangat penting,
a-b-c kebiasaanya tidak akan bergerak melepasi support wave 4.
• Nombor-nombor Fibonacci adalah asas kepada pembentukan
wave-wave ini.
• Corrective wave boleh membentuk :
o Zig Zags
o Flats/flags
o Triangles
• Salah satu dari tiga impulse wave kadang-kadang membuat
extend (pemanjangan), kebiasaannya wave 3 atau 5.
• Dalam keadaan trend yang kuat, minimum correction yang
belaku adalah 38%, manakala pada trend yang lemah,
maksimum correction yg berlaku kebiasaannya adalah 62%.

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CHART PATTERN

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GAP

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 INDICATORS
Indicators (pertunjuk) merupakan suatu formula atau algorithm
matematik yang dicipta untuk membantu dan memudahkan
penganalisa teknikal untuk menganalisa dan membuat keputusan
dalam menjual atau membeli sesuatu saham.

Leading
• Untuk meramal harga akan datang.
• Merupakan indicator yang kuat terutamanya ketika sideway.
• Boleh membuat petunjuk untuk beli (Buy signal) & petunjuk untuk
jual (Sell signal)
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) & Stochastics Oscillator.

Lagging
• Merupakan indikator yang mengikut harga semasa.
• Tidak meramal harga akan datang.
• Lebih sesuai digunakan ketika sedang trading, ketika market
sedang Bullish atau Bearish
• Moving averages, Bollinger Bands dan MACD.
•

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 MOVING AVERAGE

MOVING AVERAGE (MA) adalah purata pergerakan harga dalam

satu-satu tempoh masa.

Contoh :
Moving Average 14 (MA 14) merujuk kepada purata pergerakan
harga untuk tempoh 14hari.

Semakin kecil nombor yg digunakan dalam MA, semakin dekat

gaarisan MA mengikut pergerakan harga semasa.

Terdapat 3 jenis Moving Average

1. Simple Moving Average (SMA)
2. Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
3. Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

SMA
• Simple Moving Average
• Menunjukkan harga purata dalam satu-satu tempoh
• Nombor kecil digunakan sebagai signal, nombor yang besar
digunakan untuk menentukan trend

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WMA
• Weighted Moving Average
• Nilai puratanya adalah lebih diberatkan kepada harga yang
terbaru
• Ia memberi respon yang lebih pantas dari SMA
• Kebiasaannya digunakan untuk short term signal

EMA
• Exponential Moving Average
• Tidak mempunya specifik jangka waktu untuk nilai puratanya
• Nilai purata EMA mengambil kira nilai kseluruhan sepanjang
masa untuk satu-satu kaunter saham, namun pemberatnya masih
kepada harga yg terbaru

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KEGUNAAN MOVING AVERAGE

Kebiasaannya nombor-nombor dengan nilai yang besar (>20)

digunakan untuk membaca trend sesuatu kaunter, contohnya :

• 20 SMA (short term trend) – sebulan

• 50 SMA (medium term trend) – suku tahun
• 100 SMA (long term trend) – setengah tahun
• 200 SMA (long term trend) – setahun

Nilai-nilai kecil digunakan untuk signal beli dan juga jual. Contoh
nombor-bombor kebiasaan yang digunakan :

• EMA 5 / 7 / 6 / 10 / 12 / 14 / 15/ 18 / 20 / 21
• WMA 5 / 7 / 6 / 10 / 12 / 14 / 15/ 18 / 20 / 21

Untuk trend, 1 moving average digunakan untuk membentuk 1

garisan purata. Jika harga (candlestick) di atas garisan MA, maka
trend semasa adalah bullish. Jika harga di bawah MA, maka trend
semasa adalah bearish.

Untuk menggunakan MA sebagai signal untuk membuat keputusan

untuk jual atau beli, kebiasaanya 2 atau lebih garisan MA digunakan.
Jika cross up berlaku, ia adalah signal untuk membeli. Jika cross
down pula, ia adalah signal untuk menjual.

Contoh gabungan 2 MA yg boleh digunakan :

• 6 vs 18
• 5 vs 15
• 7 vs 21

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Sesetengah penganalisa menggunakan hanya 1 MA tetapi di padankan
dengan harga (candlestick). Jika harga menyilang ke atas MA, maka
ia adalah signal untuk membeli. Jika harga menyilang ke bawah ke
bawah MA, maka ia adalah signal untuk menjual.

CROSS (SILANGAN)

BULLISH CROSS / GOLDEN CROSS / CROSS UP

• Nombor kecil menyilang dari bawah ke atas no besar
• Silangan ke atas
• Mewujudkan good / bullish sentiment

BEARISH CROSS / DEATH CROSS / CROSS DOWN

• Nombor kecil menyilang dari ke bawah ke bawah no besar
• Silangan ke bawah
• Mewujudkan bad / bearish sentiment

TRIPLE CROSSOVER METHOD (TCM)

TCM menggunakan 3 MA (samada SMA/WMA/EMA) untuk

membentuk 3 garisan purata. Ada pelbagai cara boleh digabungkan
untuk membuat trading plan menggunakan TCM ini.

3 bagungan nombor ini adalah antara yang paling meluas digunakan

di seluruh dunia :

• MA 5-10-20
• MA 4-9-18

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 STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR

Signal
• Overbought (Sell)
• Oversold (Buy)

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 MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE
DIVERGENCE (MACD)
Signal
• Histogram
o Merupakan indicator kepada indicator MA (12, 26)
• Crossover
o Death cross (Uptrend cross) = Sell
o Golden cross (Down trend cross) = Buy

Trend
• Above '0' line = Bullish trend
• Bellow '0' line = Bearish trend

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 DMI / ADX /ADI / ADXR
Directional Movement Index
Average Directional Index
Average Directional Movement Index Rating

Signal
• Momentum
o ADX > 40 line = Strong momentum
o ADX 20-40 line = Weak momentum
o ADX <20 = No momentum
• Cross
o Death cross (Uptrend cross) = Sell
o Golden cross (Down trend cross) = Buy

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 BOLLINGER BAND

Support & Resistance

Trend-channel

Trend
• Bullish
• Bearish
• Sideway

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 GUPPY MULTIPLE MOVING AVERAGE
(GMMA)

• Menentukan trend semasa

• Terdiri dari 2 kumpulan Moving Average

o Jangka Pendek (Trader) - 3, 5, 8, 10, 12 or 15.
o Jangka Panjang (Investor) - 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 or 60.

• Bullish
o Short Term MA di atas Long Term MA
• Bearish
o Long Term MA di atas Short Term MA

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 DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE INDEX
(DDI)

Trend (Early Signal) & Reversal sign

• Bullish = Green bars
• Bearish = Red bars

Signal
• Cross Up = Buy
• Cross Down = Sell

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 RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX
(RSI)

• Signal
o <30 (oversold) = Beli
o >70 (overbought) = Jual

o Beli apabila RSI menyilang ke atas garisan tengah (Golden

Cross)
o Cut Loss apabila RSI menyilang ke bawah garisan
tengah(Death Cross)

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 ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO
• "Ichimoku" adalah perkataan dari bahasa Jepun yang membawa maksud
"sekilas pandangan (one look)".
• Terdiri dari 5 garisan
o Tenkan-sen : (highest high + lowest)/2 untuk 9 jangka masa (candles/bars).
Hampir sama seperti SMA 9. Juga di kenali sebagai "turning line"
o Kijun-sen : (highest high + lowest)/2 untuk 26 jangkamasa (candles/bars).
Hampirsamaseperti SMA 26. Jugadikenalisebagai "standard line". GarisanKijun-
senbolehdigunakansebagaigarisan support dan resistance.
o Senkou span A : Di bentuk dari (TenkanSen + KijunSen)/2 untuk 26
jangkamasa (candles/bars), dan bergerak ke depan untuk 26 jangkamasa
(candles/bars). Membentuk garisan support dan resistance untuk 26 jangkamasa
(candles/bars) kedepan.
o Senkou span B : (highest high + lowest low)/2 untuk 52 jangkamasa
(candles/bars), dan bergerak ke depan untuk 26 jangkamasa. Membentuk garisan
support dan resistance untuk 26 jangkamasa (candles/bars) kedepan.
o Chickou span : Di bentuk dari harga tutup semasa, bergerak ke belakang
untuk 26 jangkamasa (candles/bars). Membandingkan harga semasa dengan 26
jangka masa sebelum ini, untuk menentukan trend.
**Senkou A & Senkou B membentuk Kumo (Awan Ichimoku).

• Awan Ichimoku - Awan ini boleh menjadi support dan resistance yg baik.
Semakin tebal saiz awan, semakin kuat sifatnya sebagai support &
resistance.
• Trend
o Bullish = Atas Awan
o Bearish = Bawah Awan
o Sideway = Dalamawan /bermain di sekitar awan

• Buy Signal
o Harga menyilang Kijun Sen dari bawah ke atas. Stop losses bila berlaku
sebaliknya.
o Tenkan Sen menyilang Kijun Sen dari bawah keatas. Stop losses bila berlaku
sebaliknya.
o Harga tutup di atasawan Ichimoku. Stop losses bilaberlaku sebaliknya.

• Kekuatan Bullish Signal

o Trend/harga semasa berada di atas awan
o Harga 26 jangkamasa kebelakang di bawah Chikou span

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Page | 83
 DOW THEORY

Overview

In 1897, Charles Dow developed two broad market averages. The "Industrial Average" included
12 blue-chip stocks and the "Rail Average" was comprised of 20 railroad enterprises. These are
now known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

The Dow Theory resulted from a series of articles published by Charles Dow in The Wall Street
Journal between 1900 and 1902. The Dow Theory is the common ancestor to most principles of
modern technical analysis. Interestingly, the Theory itself originally focused on using general
stock market trends as a barometer for general business conditions. It was not originally intended
to forecast stock prices. However, subsequent work has focused almost exclusively on this use of
the Theory.

Interpretation

The Dow Theory comprises six assumptions:

1. The Averages Discount Everything.

An individual stock's price reflects everything that is known about the security. As new
information arrives, market participants quickly disseminate the information and the price adjusts
accordingly. Likewise, the market averages discount and reflect everything known by all stock
market participants.

2. The Market Is Comprised of Three Trends.

At any given time in the stock market, three forces are in effect: the Primary trend, Secondary
trends, and Minor trends.

The Primary trend can either be a bullish (rising) market or a bearish (falling) market. The
Primary trend usually lasts more than one year and may last for several years. If the market is
making successive higher-highs and higher-lows the primary trend is up. If the market is making
successive lower-highs and lower-lows, the primary trend is down.

Secondary trends are intermediate, corrective reactions to the Primary trend. These reactions
typically last from one to three months and retrace from one-third to two-thirds of the previous
Secondary trend. The following chart shows a Primary trend (Line "A") and two Secondary
trends ("B" and "C").

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Minor trends are short-term movements lasting from one day to three weeks. Secondary trends
are typically comprised of a number of Minor trends. The Dow Theory holds that, since stock
prices over the short-term are subject to some degree of manipulation (Primary and Secondary
trends are not), Minor trends are unimportant and can be misleading.

3. Primary Trends Have Three Phases.

The Dow Theory says that the First phase is made up of aggressive buying by informed investors
in anticipation of economic recovery and long-term growth. The general feeling among most
investors during this phase is one of "gloom and doom" and "disgust." The informed investors,
realizing that a turnaround is inevitable, aggressively buy from these distressed sellers.

The Second phase is characterized by increasing corporate earnings and improved economic
conditions. Investors will begin to accumulate stock as conditions improve.

The Third phase is characterized by record corporate earnings and peak economic conditions. The
general public (having had enough time to forget about their last "scathing") now feels
comfortable participating in the stock market—fully convinced that the stock market is headed
for the moon.

They now buy even more stock, creating a buying frenzy. It is during this phase that those few
investors who did the aggressive buying during the First phase begin to liquidate their holdings in
anticipation of a downturn.

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The following chart of the Dow Industrials illustrates these three phases during the years leading
up to the October 1987 crash.

In anticipation of a recovery from the recession, informed investors began to accumulate stock
during the First phase (box "A"). A steady stream of improved earnings reports came in during
the Second phase (box "B"), causing more investors to buy stock. Euphoria set in during the
Third phase (box "C"), as the general public began to aggressively buy stock.

4. The Averages Must Confirm Each Other.

The Industrials and Transports must confirm each other in order for a valid change of trend to
occur. Both averages must extend beyond their previous secondary peak (or trough) in order for a
change of trend to be confirmed.

The following chart shows the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports at the beginning of the
bull market in 1982.

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Confirmation of the change in trend occurred when both averages rose above their previous
secondary peak.

4. The Volume Confirms the Trend.

The Dow Theory focuses primarily on price action. Volume is only used to confirm uncertain
situations. Volume should expand in the direction of the primary trend. If the primary trend is
down, volume should increase during market declines. If the primary trend is up, volume should
increase during market advances.

The following chart shows expanding volume during an uptrend, confirming the primary trend.

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5. A Trend Remains Intact Until It Gives a Definite Reversal Signal.

An up-trend is defined by a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. In order for an up-trend to

reverse, prices must have at least one lower high and one lower low (the reverse is true of a
downtrend).

When a reversal in the primary trend is signalled by both the Industrials and Transports, the
odds of the new trend continuing are at their greatest. However, the longer a trend continues,
the odds of the trend remaining intact become progressively smaller. The following chart shows
how the Dow Industrials registered a higher high (point "A") and a higher low (point "B") which
identified a reversal of the down trend (line "C").

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Page | 89
 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (DJIA)
Dow Jones Industrial Average adalah index pasaran saham (stock
market index) yang dikira dari harga purata 30 saham-saham utama
yang di dagangkan di New York Stock Exchange dan Nasdaq. DJIA
mula diperkenalkan oleh Charles Dow pada tahun 1896.

Juga di kenali sebagai :

Industrial Average, the Dow Jones, the Dow Jones Industrial, the
Dow 30, atau yang paling mudah the Dow.

DJIA merupakan sebuah index antara yang tertua dan yang paling
menjadi perhatian dan rujukan utama di dunia dalam menentukan
sentimen pasaran semasa.

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WORLD INDEX MARKET

http://indexq.org/

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 18 Common Mistakes Most Investors Make
By William J. O'Neil in a “How to Make Money in Stocks”

" The way to succeed is to build up your weaknesses until they become your strengths "

1. Most investors never get past the starting gate because they do not use good selection criteria.
They do not know what to look for to find a successful stock. Therefore, they buy fourth-rate
"nothing-to write-home-about" stocks that are riot acting particularly well in the marketplace
and are not real market leaders.

2. A good way to ensure miserable results is to buy on the way down in price; a declining stock
seems a real bargain because it's cheaper than it was a few months earlier. For example, an
acquaintance of mine bought International Harvester at $19 in March 1981 because it was down
in price sharply and seemed a great bargain. This was his first investment, and he made the
classic tyro's mistake. He bought a stock near its low for the year. As it turned out, the company
was in serious trouble and was headed, at the time, for possible bankruptcy.

3. An even worse habit is to average down in your buying, rather than up. If you buy a stock at $40
and then buy more at $30 and average out your cost at $35, you are following up your losers and
mistakes by putting good money after bad. This amateur strategy can produce serious losses and
weigh you down with a few big losers.

4. The public loves to buy cheap stocks selling at low prices per share. They incorrectly feel it's
wiser to buy more shares of stock in round lots of 100 or 1000 shares, and this makes them feel
better, perhaps more important. You would be better off buying 30 or 50 shares of higher-
priced, sounder companies. You must think in terms of the number of dollars you are investing,
not the number of shares you can buy. Buy the best merchandise available, not the poorest.
Stocks are like anything else. You can't buy the best quality at the cheapest price! It usually costs
more in commissions and mark-ups to buy low-priced stock, and your risk is greater, since cheap
stocks can drop 15% to 20% faster than most higher-priced stocks. Professionals and institutions
will not normally buy the penny stocks, so you have a much poorer grade following and support
for these low-quality securities. As discussed earlier, institutional sponsorship is one of the
ingredients needed to help propel a stock higher in price.

5. First-time speculators want to make a killing in the market. They want too much, too fast,
without doing the necessary study and preparation or acquiring the essential methods and skills.
They are looking for an easy way to make a quick buck without spending any time or effort really
learning what they are doing.

6. Mainstream delights in buying on tips, rumours, stories, and advisory service recommendations.
In other words, they are willing to risk their hard earned money on what someone else says,
rather than on knowing for sure what they are doing themselves. Most rumours are false, and
even if a tip is correct, the stock ironically will, in many cases, go down in price.

7. Investors buy second-rate stocks because of dividends or low price-earnings ratios. Dividends
are not as important as earnings per share; in fact the more a company pays in dividends, the
weaker the company may be because it may have to pay high interest rates to replenish
internally needed funds that were paid out in the form of dividends. An investor can lose the
amount of a dividend in one or two days' fluctuation in the price of the stock. A low P/E, of
course, is probably low because the company's past record is inferior.

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8. People buy company names they are familiar with, names they know. Just because you used to
work for Malaysia Airlines doesn't make MAS necessarily a good stock to buy. Many of the best
investments will be newer names you won't know very well but could and should know if you
would do a little studying and research.

9. Most investors are not able to find good information and advice. Many, if they had sound advice,
would not recognize or follow it. The average friend, stockbroker, or advisory service could be a
source of losing advice. It is always the exceedingly small minority of your friends, brokers, or
advisory services that are successful enough in the market themselves to merit your
consideration. Outstanding stockbrokers or advisory services are no more frequent than are
outstanding doctors, lawyers, or baseball players. Only one out of nine baseball players that sign
professional contracts ever make it to the big leagues. And, of course, the majority of ball
players that graduate from college are not even good enough to sign a professional contract.

10. Over 98% of the masses are afraid to buy a stock that is beginning to go into new high ground,
pricewise. It just seems too high to them. Personal feelings and opinions are far less accurate
than markets.

11. The majority of unskilled investors stubbornly hold onto their losses when the losses are small
and reasonable. They could get out cheaply, but being emotionally involved and human, they
keep waiting and hoping until their loss gets much bigger and costs them dearly.

12. In a similar vein, investors cash in small, easy-to-take profits and hold their losers. This tactic is
exactly the opposite of correct investment procedure. Investors will sell a stock with a profit
before they will sell one with a loss.

13. Individual investors worry too much about taxes and commissions. Your key objective should be
to first make a net profit. Excessive worrying about taxes usually leads to unsound investments
in the hope of achieving a tax shelter. At other times in the past, investors lost a good profit by
holding on too long, trying to get a long-term capital gain. Some investors, even erroneously,
convince themselves they can't sell because of taxes—strong ego, weak judgment. Commission
costs of buying or selling stocks, especially through a discount broker, are a relatively minor
factor, compared to more important aspects such as making the right decisions in the first place
and taking action when needed. One of the great advantages of owning stock over real estate is
the substantially lower commission and instant marketability and liquidity. This enables you to
protect yourself quickly at a low cost or to take advantage of highly profitable new trends as
they continually evolve.

14. The multitude speculates in options too much because they think it is a way to get rich quick.
When they buy options, they incorrectly concentrate entirely in shorter-term, lower-priced
options that involve greater volatility and risk rather than in longer-term options. The limited
time period works against short-term option holders. Many options speculators also write what
is referred to as "naked options," which are nothing but taking a great risk for a potentially small
reward and, therefore, a relatively unsound investment procedure.

15. Novice investors like to put price limits on their buy-and-sell orders. They rarely place market
orders. This procedure is poor because the investor is quibbling for eighths and quarters of a
point, rather than emphasizing the more important and larger overall movement. Limit orders
eventually result in your completely missing the market and not getting out of stocks that should
be sold to avoid substantial losses.

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16. Some investors have trouble making decisions to buy or sell. In other words, they vacillate and
can't make up their minds. They are unsure because they really don't know what they are doing.
They do not have a plan, a set of principles, or rules, to guide them and, therefore, are uncertain
of what they should be doing.

17. Most investors cannot look at stocks objectively. They are always hoping and having favorites,
and they rely on their hopes and personal opinions rather than paying attention to the opinion
of the marketplace, which is more frequently right.

18. Investors are usually influenced by things that are not really crucial, such as stock splits,
increased dividends, news announcements, and brokerage firm or advisory recommendations. If
you hunger to become a winning investor, read the above items over very carefully several times
and be totally honest with yourself. How many of the habits mentioned above describe your
investment beliefs and practices? As Rockne would say, "These are the weaknesses which you
must systematically work on until you can change and build them up into your strong points."

Poor principles and poor methods will yield poor results. Sound principles and sound methods
will, in time, create sound results. My parting advice to you is: Have courage, be positive, and
don't ever give up. Great opportunities occur every year. Get yourself prepared and go for it.
You'll find that little acorns can grow into giant oaks. Anything is possible with persistence and
hard work. It can be done, and your own determination to succeed is the most important
element.

Source :
How to Make Money in Stocks
A Winning System in Good Times or Bad
William J. O'Neil

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