Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Dendi Ramdani
Abrar Aulia
Faisal Rahman
Haris Faruddin
Ahmad Zuhdi Dwi Kusuma
❑ Theoertical Framework
❑Simple tips
𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝜶. 𝑘 + 𝜷𝑙 + 𝜺 (𝜶 + 𝜷 = 1)
AK Model
𝑌 = 𝐴. 𝐾 𝜶
Ekspansi
mbar 1
Inflasi
Skenario
Resesi
Pertumbuhan
Peak
Ekspansi Inflasi
Skenario Titik Siklus Bisnis
Ekonomi Indonesia
1969 "+"Pertumbuhan
Trough Recovery
Trend 1974 Ekonomi
"-/+"
1983 "-/+"
1988 "+"
Recovery Recovery Recovery 1991 "-"
eak Recession Recession
1995 "+"
1997 "-"
Time Period 2000 "-/+"
Office of Chief Economist• 6
2005 "-"
Sumber: Diilustrasikan ulang oleh Willem A.M (2005) Titik Siklus Bisnis
GDP: Two Sides of a Coin
Primary C
Sector
(Raw Goods)
Spending Side
I
Gross
Production Side
Secondary
Sector
(processed Domestic
goods)
Product G
Tertiary X
Sector
(Services)
M
Office of Chief Economist• 7
7
Studi Kasus : Perekonomian Jawa Tengah
1701 Cane Or Beet Sugar And Chemically Pure Sucrose, In Solid Form 134.4 77.7 153.2 150.9 233.4 161.1 117.1 -42.2 97.2 -1.5 54.7 -27.3 1.6
3902 Polymers Of Propylene Or Of Other Olefins, In Primary Forms 125.1 154.0 115.3 210.4 220.3 124.3 77.7 23.1 -25.2 82.5 4.7 -37.5 1.5
Woven Fabrics Of Synthetic Filament Yarn, Including Those Of
5407 Monofilaments 67 Decitex Or More, Not Over 1 Mm Cross-Section 156.5 168.1 168.8 183.4 207.0 104.7 94.5 7.4 0.4 8.7 12.9 -9.8 1.4
And Of Strip Not Over 5 Mm
1001 Wheat And Meslin 216.0 277.6 227.5 300.7 199.6 108.1 134.4 28.5 -18.1 32.2 -33.6 24.4 1.3
Parts For Television, Radio And Radar Apparatus (Of Headings 8525 To
8529 134.4 135.3 122.8 166.1 197.5 107.9 116.2 0.7 -9.2 35.2 18.9 7.7 1.3
8528)
6006 Knitted Or Crocheted Fabrics, Nesoi 125.4 143.9 163.2 177.1 186.2 123.1 90.0 14.7 13.4 8.5 5.1 -26.9 1.2
Other 7591.3 7171.1 5166.8 5577.2 5729.2 2937.5 2600.8 -5.5 -27.9 7.9 2.7 -11.5 38.2
Total 14779.4 12567.6 8719.8 11781.8 15013.6 7275.2 6994.6 -15.0 -30.6 35.1 27.4 -3.9 176.9
Pertumbuhan PDB nasional dan PDRB Jawa Tengah Pertumbuhan PDRB Jawa Tengah dan Inflasi Jawa Tengah
8 10
6 8
4 6
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4 -4
-6 -6
-8 -8
Nov-17
Jul-16
Mar-11
Nov-11
Jul-12
Mar-13
Nov-13
Jul-14
Mar-15
Nov-15
Jul-16
Mar-17
Jul-18
Mar-19
Nov-19
Jul-20
Mar-21
Nov-21
Jul-22
Mar-23
Mar-11
Nov-11
Jul-12
Mar-13
Nov-13
Jul-14
Mar-15
Nov-15
Mar-17
Nov-17
Jul-18
Mar-19
Nov-19
Jul-20
Mar-21
Nov-21
Jul-22
Mar-23
PDRB Jawa Tengah (%, yoy) PDB Nasional (%, yoy) PDRB Jawa Tengah (%, yoy) Inflasi Jawa Tengah
15
10
-5
-10
-15
Nov-16
Nov-22
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
Jul-16
Mar-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Mar-18
Jul-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
Jul-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
Jul-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
Jul-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
Jul-22
Mar-23
PDRB Jawa Tengah (%, yoy) Konsumsi JaTeng (%, yoy) Pengeluaran pemerintah JaTeng (%, yoy) Investasi JaTeng (%, yoy)
Periode data: Periode data: Periode data: Periode data: Periode data:
Triwulanan Triwulanan Triwulanan Triwulanan Triwulanan
270 8
5,46
5,34
5,33
5,31
5,30
5,29
5,26
5,26
5,26
5,25
5,16
5,14
5,12
250 6
4,88
3,33
230 4
210 2
190 0
170
-2
-2,65
150
-4
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
2012
2019
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
PDRB Jawa Tengah Hasil Model PDRB Jawa Tengah (%, yoy) Forecast PDRB Jawa Tengah (%, yoy)
Korelasi
Diferensial Log(PDRB JaTeng) Dependent variable
Diferensial Log(Konsumsi RT JaTeng) 0,6996
Diferensial Log(Pengeluaran pemerintah JaTeng) -0,3185
Diferensial Log(PMTDB JaTeng) 0,0197
Diferensial Log(IHK JaTeng) -0,0790
Diferensial Log(PDB Nasional) 0,8039