Introduction to Decision Analysis

Hesti Maheswari
hesti.maheswari@pmbs.ac.id

082123596058
 CAPAIAN PEMBELAJARAN MATA KULIAH

• Memahami problem keputusan bisnis dalam

kepastian (certainty) dan ketidakpastian (uncertainty)
• Memahami pemodelan dan strukturisasi problem
keputusan bisnis dalam kepastian dan ketidakpastian
• Memahami proses pencarian solusi dari model
keputusan dalam kepastian dan ketidakpastian
 Tata tertib
1. Mahasiswa hadir dalam perkuliahan tatap muka minimal 80% dari jumlah
pertemuan ideal.
2. Setiap mahasiswa harus aktif dan partisipatif dalam perkuliahan.
3. Mahasiswa hadir di kelas tepat waktu sesuai dengan waktu yang ditetapkan
(jadwal),
4. Toleransi keterlambatan adalah 10 menit. Jika melewati batas waktu toleransi,
maka mahasiswa dapat mengikuti perkuliahan tetapi tidak dicatat sebagai
kehadiran,
5. Keluar kelas untuk keperluan singkat dapat dilakukan pada saat-saat jeda yang
diberikan dosen.
6. Saling menghargai dan tidak membuat kegaduhan/gangguan/kerusakan dalam
kelas,
7. Menggunakan pakaian yang rapi dan sopan selama perkuliahan, dan sesuai
aturan
8. Tidak boleh ada plagiasi dan bentuk-bentuk pelanggaran norma lainnya.
Komponen dan proporsi penilaian
1.UTS (30%)
2.UAS (30%)
3.Teaching Assignment (40%)
1. Studi kasus
2. Proyek akhir
 Class Leader & Group Formation
• Class Leader:
– Name:
– Handphone

• Group:
Groups Leader
1 5
2 6
3 7
4 8
 Referensi

1. Introduction to Management Science. McGrawHill 6th edition

by Frederick S. Hillier (HILLIER)
2. An Introduction to Management Science. Pearson 13th edition
by Bernard W. Taylor III. (TAYLOR)
 Materi
Midterm Exam Final Exam
Introduction: Management Science Multi criteria decision making
Linear Programming Multi criteria decision making (AHP)
Linear Programming with Solver Multi criteria decision making
Decision trees Queueing analysis
Decision trees Computer simulation
Decision trees Queueing analysis & Computer simulation
Group Presentation Final Project
 Why (business) Decision Analysis

• Help us make a better business decision that

makes companies stay competitive in a
dynamically-changing environment
DECISION MAKING UNDER
CERTAINTY
Designing supply network
Linear Programming
DECISION MAKING UNDER
UNCERTAINTY
Innovate or Die (?)
success
Reward = +++

innovate

failure
Reward = - - -

Don’t
Reward = 0
innovate
 Expected Value (EV)

n
EV ( Ai )   P ( S j Ai ) Rij
j 1

EV(Ai) : expected value dari alternatif ke Ai, dengan i = 1,…, m

P(Sj|Ai) : probabilitas terjadinya peristiwa Sj setelah alternatif Ai
dipilih, dengan j = 1, …, n
Rij : reward atau payoff yang diperoleh dari keputusan Ai yang
diikuti oleh peristiwa Sj
QUEUEING
 A Basic Queueing System
Served Customers

Queueing System

Queue
C S
Customers C S Service
CCCCCCC
C S facility
C S

Served Customers
Defining the Measures of Performance
L = Expected number of customers in the system,
including those being served (the symbol L comes
from Line Length).
Lq = Expected number of customers in the queue,
which excludes customers being served.
W = Expected waiting time in the system (including
service time) for an individual customer (the symbol
W comes from Waiting time).
Wq = Expected waiting time in the queue (excludes
service time) for an individual customer.
COMPUTER SIMULATION
Uncertainties in innovation project
MULTI CRITERIA DECISION MAKING
 Multi Criteria Decision Making

• Key problems in business, engineering and

sciences can be formulated in terms of:

1. A set of known alternatives and

2. A set of known criteria

What if alternatives or criteria are unknown?

Weighted-Score/Sum Method

Criteria Weight (%) A1 A2  Aj

C1 w1 a11 a12 a1j
C2 w2 a21 a22 a2j

Ci wi ai1 ai2 aij

Total weighted-score w1a11 + w2a21 w1a12 + w2a22 w1a1j + w2a2j
+ ….. + wiai1 + ….. + wiai2 + ….. + wiaij

Select the alternative with the highest total weighted-score

THANK YOU