• Qualitative Method
Memperkirakan masa depan berdasarkan penilaian dari
para ahli (expert judgement)
Quantitative
Forecasting Method
Characteristics of Forecasts
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
∑y ∑xy
Y = a + bX a = b=
n ∑x2
2016 1342
Ekstrapolasi: Kurva Linear
Mengubah tahun (x) menjadi nilai indeks untuk proyeksi
jumlah penduduk
y = 6318 x2 = 28 xy = 3526
What next ?
Model Regresi (Causal)
Contoh:
Qualitative
Forecasting Methods
Kapan qualitative methods
digunakan?
Kelebihan:
• A rapid consensus can be achieved
• Participants do not have to be in the same room together
to reach agreement
• Individuals are able to express their own opinions as
opposed to “Group think”
• Can include a wide range of expertise
• Relatively low cost to administer and analyse
• There is the potential to gain large quantities of data
• Offers a method which can be used where data are lacking
Kelebihan dan kekurangan metode Delphi
Kekurangan:
• Does not cope well with widely differing opinions or large
changes in opinions (paradigm shifts)
• The facilitator’s view may dominate in the analysis
• Differing opinions may not be sufficiently investigated
• Can be time-consuming
• Needs high participant motivation
• Success of the method depends on the quality of the
participants
• The written response format may be less suitable for some
potential respondents
Analytic Hierarchical Process
Dekomposisi pengambilan keputusan ke dalam kriteria dan
alternatif yang disusun secara hierarkikal.
Dikenalkan oleh Thomas Saaty
Langkah-langkah AHP
A B C
The Saaty Rating Scale
Untuk mengukur tingkat kepentingan dibandingkan dengan
alternative lain
Intensity of Definition Explanation
importance
1 Equal importance Two factors contribute equally to the
objective
3 Somewhat more Experience and judgement slightly
important favour one over the other
5 Much more important Experience and judgement strongly
favour one over the other
7 Very much more Experience and judgement very strongly
important favour one over the other
9 Absolutely more The evidence favouring one over the
important other is of the highest possible validity
2, 4, 6, 8 Intermediate values When compromise is needed
Kelebihan dan Kekurangan Metode AHP
Kelebihan:
• Menstrukturkan masalah yang kompleks, multi-attribute dan multi-
person
• Mengkuantifikasi penilaian secara konsisten
Kekurangan:
• Kompleksitas dari metode ini terkadang menyulitkan, namun saat ini
sudah ada softwarenya
• Bila ada lebih dari 1 ahli, menentukan bobot penilaian dari masing-
masing kriteria dapat menyulitkan
• Mengandalkan pada data, pengetahuan, dan pengalaman yang
dimiliki narasumber (ahli)
Quantitative vs Qualitative
Which one is better?
Mengkombinasikan quantitative
methods dan qualitative methods
• Skenario intervensi
• Migrasi
• Dinamika pertumbuhan alami tren fertilitas dan
mortalitas
• Komparasi dengan daya dukung dan daya tampung (note:
analisis daya dukung dan daya tampung pada skala kota
berbeda dengan analisis pada skala wilayah)
• Faktor eksternal lain yang mempengaruhi skenario
proyeksi, contoh: kebijakan nasional untuk mengendalikan
pertumbuhan penduduk
Sekian dan Terimakasih