TUGAS PENGANGGARAN

DOSEN : MARSUDIN, SE., MM.

NAMA : ADELIA SETYORINI

NIM : 1814190042

KELAS : JUMAT PAGI JAM 10.20-12.50

1. Proyeksi penjualan menggunakan metode Least Square:

TAHUN REALISASI X X2 XY
PENJUALAN
2010 6,400,000 -3 9 -19,200,000
2011 7,600,000 -2 4 -15,200,000
2012 8,200,000 -1 1 -8,200,000
2013 9,800,000 0 0 0
2014 10,500,000 1 1 10,500,000
2015 12,500,000 2 4 25,000,000
2016 15,000,000 3 9 45,000,000
Jumlah 70,000,000 0 28 37,900,000

Penyelesaian:

∑ y 70,000,000
a− = =10,000,000
n 7
∑xy 37,900,000
b− = =1.351.571,4286
∑ x2 28
Jadi forecast penjualan tahun 2017 aalah:

Y =a+bx
= 10,000,000 + 1.351.571,4286 ( x )

Proyeksi penjualan tahun 2017 (y), maka X = 4

= 10,000,000 + 1.351.571,4286 ( 4 )

= 10,000,000 + 5.414.571,7144

= 15.414.285,7144~ 15.414.286 (dibulatkan)

 2. Forecast penjualan menggunakan metode moment:

TAHUN REALISASI X X2 XY
PENJUALAN
2010 6,400,000 0 0 0
2011 7,600,000 1 1 7,600,000
2012 8,200,000 2 4 16,400,000
2013 9,800,000 3 9 29,400,000
2014 10,500,000 4 16 42,000,000
2015 12,500,000 5 25 62,500,000
2016 15,000,000 6 36 90,000,000
Jumlah 70,000,000 21 91 247,900,000

Penyelesaian:

∑ y=n .a+ b ∑ x

∑ xy=a ∑ x+b ∑ x 2
70,000,000 = 7a + 21b

247,900,000 = 21a + 91b

Selanjutnya persamaan menjadi:

210,000,000 = 21a + 63b

247,900,000 = 21a + 91b (-)

37,900,000 = 28b

B = 37,900,000/28 = 1.353.571,4285

70,000,000 = 7a + 21 (1.353.571,4285)

7a = 70,000,000 – 28.424.999,9985 = 41,575,000

A = 41,575,000/7 = 5.939.285,71249

Y = 5.939.285,71249 + 1.353.571,4285 (X)

Proyeksi penjualan tahun 2017 (Y) adalah:

5.939.285,71249 + 1.353.571,4285 (7)

= 5.939.285,71249 + 9.474.999,9995~ 9,475,000 (dibulatkan)

= 15.414.285,712~ 5.414.286 (dibulatkan)