Ass.Wr.
Wr.wb.
wb.
SISTEM
SISTEMDAN
DAN
PEMODELAN
PEMODELANSISTEM
SISTEM
Prof
ProfDrDrIrIrSoemarno,
Soemarno,MS
MS
MALANG, 2005
MALANG, 2005
“Semua benda hidup dan mati yg terdapat
secara alamiah di bumi,
The Comprehensive
Model
FIVE GEOMETRIES in Land use system
LAND USE
GEOMETRY
1. Filosofis
2. Prosedural
3. Alat bantu
analisis
“Sistem”:
Gugusan elemen-elemen yg
saling berinteraksi dan
FILOSOFI
FILOSOFI
terorganisir peri-lakunya ke
arah tujuan tertentu
Need Assesment
Tahapan Pokok:
-
-
-
Evaluasi
Outcomes
“Model Abstrak”:
Perilaku esensialnya sama
ALAT
ALAT dengan dunia nyata
-BANTU
-BANTU
“digunakan dalam”:
3. Simulasi SISTEM
MODEL SISTEM
programming
PROGRAM KOMPUTER
“Model dasar”: Model Matematik
SIMULASI
SIMULASI
SISTEM:
SISTEM: Model lain diformulasikan
METODOLOGI
METODOLOGI menjadi model matematik
“tahapan”:
MODEL KONSEP
1. Hubungan Langsung
2. Hubungan tidak langsung
3. Keterkaitan Timbal-balik /
Sebab-akibat / Fungsional MATEMATIKA
4. Peubah - peubah
5. Parameter
Operasi Matematik:
Formula, Tanda, Aksioma
“MODEL SIMBOLIK” :
Simbol-simbol Matematik
JENIS-JENIS
JENIS-JENIS Angka
Simbol “Persamaan”
MODEL
MODEL Rumus “Ketidak-samaan”
Fungsi
“MODEL IKONIK” :
“MODEL ANALOG” :
Model Fisik
1. Peta-peta geografis
Model Diagramatik:
2. Foto, Gambar, Lukisan
1. Hubungan-hubungan
3. Prototipe
2. …...
3. …..
SIFAT PROBABILISTIK / STOKASTIK
SIFAT Teknik Peluang
MODEL
MODEL Memperhitungkan “uncertainty”
“DETERMINISTIK”:
“MODEL ALOKATIF” :
3. Implementasi Komputer
Recognition….
Generation of solutions
MODELLING
Implementation of results
Mengapa kita gunakan Analisis Sistem?
4. Feed-back loops
Negative effects vs. Positive effects
Conclusions
Proses Pemodelan
SISTEM: Approach
Simulasi Sistem
Analisis Sistem
The hypotheses
to be tested
MODEL
Sub-systems
Trade-off:
complexity vs. simplicity
P
HYPOTHESES
Konstruksi Model
.
Manipulasi matematis
VERIFIKASI MODEL
1. Menguji apakah “general behavior of a MODEL” mampu
mencerminkan “the real system”
2. Apakah mekanisme atau proses yang di “model” sesuai
dengan yang terjadi dalam sistem
3. Verifikasi: subjective assessment of the success of the modelling
4. Inkonsistensi antara perilaku model dengan real-system harus
dapat diberikan penjelasannya
VALIDASI MODEL
1. Sampai seberapa jauh output dari model sesuai dengan
perilaku sistem yang sesungguhnya
2. Uji prosedur pemodelan
3. Uji statistik untuk mengetahui “adequacy of the model”
4.
Proses Pemodelan
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Validasi MODEL
PLANNING & INTEGRATION
PLANNING
Integrasi berbagai macam aktivitas, formulasi masalah, hipotesis,
pengumpulan data, penyusunan alternatif rencana dan implementasi
rencana. Kegagalan integrasi ini berdampak pada hilangnya komunikasi :
1. Antara data eksperimentasi dan model development
2. Antara simulasi model dengan implementasi model
3. Antara hasil prediksi model dengan implementasi model
4. Antara management practices dengan pengembangan
hipotesis yang baru
5. Implementasi hasil uji coba dengan hipotesis yg baru
DEVELOPMENT of MODEL
1. Kualitas data dan pemahaman terhadap fenomena sebab-
akibat (proses yang di model) umumnya POOR
2. Analisis sistem dan pengumpulan data harus dilengkapi
dengan mekanisme umpan-balik
3. Pelatihan dalam analisis sistem sangat diperlukan
4. Model sistem hanya dapat diperbaiki dengan jalan mengatasi
kelemahannya
5. Tim analisis sistem seyogyanya interdisiplin
PEMODELAN KUANTITATIF :
MATEMATIKA DAN STATISTIKA
MODEL STATISTIKA:
FENOMENA STOKASTIK
MODEL MATEMATIKA:
FENOMENA DETERMINISTIK
WHAT
WHATIS
ISSYSTEM
SYSTEMMODELLING
MODELLING??
Worthwhile
Worthwhile
Recognition
Recognition Problems
Problems
Amenable
Amenable
Compromise Complexity
Definitions
Definitions
Compromise Complexity
Bounding
Bounding Simplification
Simplification
Objectives
Objectives Hierarchy
Hierarchy
Identification
Identification Priorities
Priorities
Goals
Goals
Generality
Generality
Solution
Solution Family
Family
Generation
Generation
Modelling Selection
Selection
Modelling Inter-relationship
Inter-relationship
Feed-back
Feed-back Stopping
Stoppingrules
rules
Evaluation
Evaluation
Sensitivity
Sensitivity&&Assumptions
Assumptions
Implementation
Implementation
PHASES
PHASESOF
OFSYSTEM
SYSTEMMODELLING
MODELLING
Recognition
Recognition
Definition
Definitionand
andbounding
boundingofofthe
theproblems
problems
Identification
Identificationofofgoals
goalsand
andobjectives
objectives
Generation
Generationofofsolution
solution
MODELLING
MODELLING
Evaluation
Evaluationofofpotential
potentialcourses
coursesofofaction
action
Implementation
Implementationofofresults
results
MODEL
MODEL &
&MATEMATIK:
MATEMATIK: Term
Term
Konstante Tipe
Tipe
Variabel
Variabel Parameter Konstante
Parameter
Likelihood
Likelihood
Dependent
Dependent Populasi
Populasi Probability
Probability
Independent Analitik
Analitik
Independent
Maximum
Maximum
Sampel
Sampel
Simulasi
Simulasi
Regressor
Regressor
JENIS VARIABEL
Intervening
(Mediating)
Moderator
Independent Dependent
INTRANEOUS
EXTRANEOUS
Preliminary
Preliminary Goodall Mathematical
Goodall Mathematical
Mapping
Mapping Rules
Formal
Formal Rules
Expression
Expression Representational
Representational Maynard-Smith
Maynard-Smith
Mathematical Simplified
Data
Datavalues
values Simulation
Mathematical Simplified Simulation
MODEL
MODEL &
&MATEMATIK:
MATEMATIK: Relatives
Relatives
Advantages Disadvantages
Disadvantages
Advantages
Distortion
Distortion
Precise
Precise
Abstract Opaqueness
Opaqueness
Abstract
Complexity
Complexity
Transfer
Transfer
Replacement
Replacement
Communication
Communication
MODEL
MODEL &
&MATEMATIK:
MATEMATIK: Families
Families
Types
Types Basis
Basis Choices
Choices
Dynamics
Dynamics
Compartment
Compartment
Stochastic
Stochastic
Multivariate
Multivariate
Network
Network
BEBERAPA
BEBERAPAPENGERTIAN
PENGERTIAN
MODEL
MODELDETERMINISTIK:
DETERMINISTIK:Nilai-nilai
Nilai-nilaiyang
yangdiramal
diramal(diestimasi,
(diestimasi,
diduga) dapat dihitung secara eksak.
diduga) dapat dihitung secara eksak.
MODEL
MODELSTOKASTIK:
STOKASTIK:Model-model
Model-modelyang
yangdiramal
diramal(diestimasi,
(diestimasi,diduga)
diduga)
tergantung pada distribusi peluang
tergantung pada distribusi peluang
POPULASI:
POPULASI:Keseluruhan
Keseluruhanindividu-individu
individu-individu(atau
(atauarea,
area,unit,
unit,lokasi
lokasidll.)
dll.)
yang diteliti untuk mendapatkan kesimpulan.
yang diteliti untuk mendapatkan kesimpulan.
SAMPEL:
SAMPEL:sejumlah
sejumlahtertentu
tertentuindividu
individuyang
yangdiambil
diambildari
dariPOPULASI
POPULASI
dan dianggap nilai-nilai yang dihitung dari sampel dapat mewakili
dan dianggap nilai-nilai yang dihitung dari sampel dapat mewakili
populasi
populasisecara
secarakeseluruhan
keseluruhan
PARAMETER:
PARAMETER:Nilai-nilai
Nilai-nilaikarakteristik
karakteristikdari
daripopulasi
populasi
KONSTANTE,
KONSTANTE,KOEFISIEAN:
KOEFISIEAN:nilai-nilai
nilai-nilaikarakteristik
karakteristikyang
yangdihitung
dihitungdari
dariSAMPEL
SAMPEL
VARIABEL
VARIABELDEPENDENT:
DEPENDENT:Variabel
Variabelyang
yangdiharapkan
diharapkanberubah
berubahnilainya
nilainyadisebabkan
disebabkan
oleh adanya perubahan nilai dari variabel lain
oleh adanya perubahan nilai dari variabel lain
VARIABEL
VARIABELINDEPENDENT:
INDEPENDENT:variabel
variabelyang
yangdapat
dapatmenyebabkan
menyebabkanterjadinya
terjadinya
perubahan VARIABEL DEPENDENT.
perubahan VARIABEL DEPENDENT.
BEBERAPA
BEBERAPAPENGERTIAN
PENGERTIAN
MODEL
MODELFITTING:
FITTING:Proses
Prosespemilihan
pemilihanparameter
parameter(konstante
(konstantedan/atau
dan/atau
koefisien
koefisien yang dapat menghasilkan nilai-nilai ramalan palingmendekati
yang dapat menghasilkan nilai-nilai ramalan paling mendekati
nilai-nilai sesungguhnya
nilai-nilai sesungguhnya
ANALYTICAL
ANALYTICALMODEL: MODEL:Model
Modelyang
yangformula-formulanya
formula-formulanyasecara
secara
eksplisit diturunkan untuk mendapatkan nilai-nilai ramalan,
eksplisit diturunkan untuk mendapatkan nilai-nilai ramalan,
contohnya:
contohnya:MODEL
MODELREGRESI
REGRESI
MODEL MULTIVARIATE
MODEL MULTIVARIATE
EXPERIMENTAL
EXPERIMENTALDESIGN
DESIGN
STANDARD
STANDARD DISTRIBUTION,etc
DISTRIBUTION, etc
SIMULATION
SIMULATIONMODEL:
MODEL:Model
Modelyang
yangformula-formulanya
formula-formulanyaditurunkan
diturunkandengan
dengan
serangkaian operasi arithmatik, misal:
serangkaian operasi arithmatik, misal:
Solusi
Solusipersamaan
persamaandiferensial
diferensial
Aplikasi matrix
Aplikasi matrix
Penggunaan
Penggunaanbilangan
bilanganacak,
acak,dll.
dll.
DYNAMIC
DYNAMIC MODEL
MODEL
MODELLING
MODELLING
Dynamics
Dynamics SIMULATION
SIMULATION Equations
Equations
Computer
Computer FORMAL
FORMAL
Language
Language
ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS
Special
Special General
General
DYNAMO
DYNAMO BASIC
BASIC
CSMP
CSMP
CSSL
CSSL
DYNAMIC
DYNAMIC MODEL
MODEL
DIAGRAMS
DIAGRAMS
RELATIONAL
RELATIONAL SYMBOLS
SYMBOLS
LEVELS AUXILIARY
AUXILIARY
LEVELS
VARIABLES
VARIABLES MATERIAL
MATERIAL
FLOW
FLOW
RATE
RATE
PARAMETER
PARAMETER EQUATIONS
EQUATIONS
INFORMATION
INFORMATION
SINK
SINK FLOW
FLOW
DYNAMIC
DYNAMIC MODEL:
MODEL:
ORIGINS
ORIGINS
Abstraction
Abstraction
Computers
Computers Equations
Equations Steps
Steps
Hypothesis
Hypothesis
Discriminant
Discriminant Simulation
Simulation
Function
Function
Other
Other Undestanding
Undestanding
functions
functions
Exponentials Logistic
Logistic
Exponentials
MATRIX
MATRIX MODEL
MODEL
MATHEMATICS
MATHEMATICS
Operations
Operations Matrices
Matrices Eigen
Eigenvalue
value
Elements
Elements Dominant
Additions
Additions Dominant
Substraction
Substraction
Multiplication
Multiplication Types
Types
Inversion
Inversion Eigen
Eigenvector
vector
Rectangular Square
Square
Rectangular
Diagonal
Diagonal
Identity Vectors
Vectors Scalars
Scalars
Identity
Row
Row
Column
Column
MATRIX
MATRIX MODEL
MODEL
DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT
Interactions
Interactions Groups
Groups Stochastic
Stochastic
Materials
Materials
cycles Size
Size Markov
Markov
cycles
Models
Models
Development
Development
stages
stages
STOCHASTIC
STOCHASTICMODEL
MODEL
STOCHASTIC
STOCHASTIC
Probabilities
Probabilities History
History Other
Other
Models
Models
Statistical
Statistical
method
method Dynamics
Dynamics
Stability
Stability
STOCHASTIC
STOCHASTICMODEL
MODEL
Spatial
Spatialpatern
patern
Distribution
Distribution Example
Example
Pisson
Pisson Poisson
Poisson Negative
Negative
Binomial
Binomial
Binomial
Binomial
Negative
Negative
Binomial
Binomial Test Fitting
Fitting
Test
Others
Others
STOCHASTIC
STOCHASTICMODEL
MODEL
ADDITIVE
ADDITIVEMODELS
MODELS
Basic
BasicModel
Model Example
Example
Error
Error Estimates
Estimates Analysis
Analysis
Parameter
Parameter
Orthogonal Variance
Variance
Orthogonal
Block
Block Effects
Effects
Experimental
Experimental Significance
Significance
Treatments
Treatments
STOCHASTIC
STOCHASTICMODEL
MODEL
REGRESSION
REGRESSION
Model
Model Example
Example
Error
Error Decomposition
Decomposition Equation
Equation
Linear/
Linear/Non-
Non-
linear functions Oxygen Theoritical
linear functions Oxygenuptake
uptake Theoritical
base
base
Reactions
Reactions
Experimental
Experimental Empirical
Empiricalbase
base
Assumptions
Assumptions
STOCHASTIC
STOCHASTICMODEL
MODEL
MARKOV
MARKOV
Analysis
Analysis
Example
Example Assumptions
Assumptions
Analysis
Analysis Disadvantage
Disadvantage Advantages
Advantages
Transition
Transition
probabilities
probabilities
Raised
Raisedmire
mire
MULTIVARIATE
MULTIVARIATEMODELS
MODELS
METHODS
METHODS
VARIATE
VARIATE
Variable
Variable Classification
Classification
Dependent
Dependent Descriptive
Descriptive Predictive
Predictive
Principal
Principal
Component
Component Discriminant
Analysis Discriminant
Independent
Independent Analysis Analysis
Analysis
Cluster
Cluster
Analysis
Analysis
Reciprocal
Reciprocal Canonical
Canonical
averaging
averaging Analysis
Analysis
MULTIVARIATE
MULTIVARIATEMODEL
MODEL
PRINCIPLE
PRINCIPLECOMPONENT
COMPONENTANALYSIS
ANALYSIS
Requirement
Requirement
Example
Example Correlation
Correlation Objectives
Objectives
Environment
Environment Eigenvalues
Eigenvalues Eigenvectors
Eigenvectors
Organism
Organism
Regions
Regions
MULTIVARIATE
MULTIVARIATE MODEL
MODEL
CLUSTER
CLUSTERANALYSIS
ANALYSIS
Example
Example Spanning
Spanningtree
tree Multivariate
Multivariate
space
space
Demography
Demography
Rainfall
Rainfall Minimum
Minimum
regimes
regimes Similarity
Similarity
Single
Singlelinkage
linkage
Distance
Distance
Settlement
Settlement
patern
patern
MULTIVARIATE
MULTIVARIATEMODEL
MODEL
CANONICAL
CANONICALCORRELATION
CORRELATION
Example
Example Correlation
Correlation
Partitioned
Partitioned
Watershed
Watershed
Urban
Urbanarea
area
Eigenvalues
Eigenvalues Eigenvectors
Eigenvectors
Irrigation
Irrigation
regions
regions
MULTIVARIATE
MULTIVARIATEMODEL
MODEL
Discriminant
Discriminantfunction
function
Example
Example Discriminant
Discriminant
Calculation
Calculation
Villages
Villages
Vehicles
Vehicles
Test
Test
Structures
Structures
OPTIMIZATION
OPTIMIZATIONMODEL
MODEL
OPTIMIZATION
OPTIMIZATION
Dynamic
Dynamic
Meanings
Meanings Indirect
Indirect Linear Non-
Non-
Linear
Linear
Linear
Simulation Objective
Simulation Objectivefunction
function
Minimization
Minimization Constraints
Constraints
Experimentation
Experimentation Solution
Solution
Examples
Examples
Maximization
Maximization Optimum
OptimumTransportation
TransportationRoutes
Routes
Optimum
Optimumirrigation
irrigationscheme
scheme
Optimum Regional Spacing
Optimum Regional Spacing
MODELLING
MODELLINGPROCESS
PROCESS
System
Systemanalysis
analysis
Introduction
Introduction Processes
Processes
Model
Model
Space
Space
Bounding Systems Time
Time
Definition
Definition
Bounding Systems Niche
Niche
Elements
Elements
Word
WordModels
Models Impacts
Impacts
Factorial
Factorial
Alternatives
Alternatives Confounding
Confounding
Separate
Separate
Hypotheses
Hypotheses
Combinations
Combinations
Data
Data Plotting
Plotting
Outliers
Outliers
Modelling
Modelling Analysis
Analysis Test
Test
Choices
Choices Estimates
Validation
Validation Estimates
Conclusion
Conclusion
Integration
Integration Communication
Communication
MODELLING
MODELLINGPROCESSES
PROCESSES
HYPOTHESES
HYPOTHESES
Decision
DecisionTable
Table
Relevance
Relevance Processes
Processes Relationships
Relationships
Variable
Variable Linkages
Linkages Linear
Linear
Impacts
Impacts Non-Linear
Non-Linear
Species
Species
Interactive
Interactive
Sub-systems
Sub-systems
HYPOTHESES
HYPOTHESES
Hypotheses
HypothesesofofRelevance:
Relevance:Mengidentifikasi
Mengidentifikasidan
danmendefinisikan
mendefinisikanvariabel
variabel
dan subsistem yang relevan dengan permasalahan yang diteliti
dan subsistem yang relevan dengan permasalahan yang diteliti
Hypotheses
HypothesesofofProcesses:
Processes:Menghubungkan
Menghubungkansubsistem
subsistem(atau
(atauvariabel)
variabel)didi
dalam
dalampermasalahan
permasalahanyang
yangditeliti
ditelitidan
danmendefinisikan
mendefinisikandampak
dampak
(pengaruh) terhadap sistem yang diteliti
(pengaruh) terhadap sistem yang diteliti
Hypotheses
Hypothesesofofrelationships:
relationships:Merumuskan
Merumuskanhubungan-hubungan
hubungan-hubunganantar antarvariabel
variabel
dengan menggunakan formula-formula matematik (fungsi linear, non-linear,
dengan menggunakan formula-formula matematik (fungsi linear, non-linear,
interaksi,
interaksi,dll)
dll)
MODELLING
MODELLINGPROCESSES
PROCESSES
VALIDATION
VALIDATION
Verification
Verification Critical
CriticalTest
Test Sensitivity
Sensitivity
Analysis
Analysis
Subjectives
Subjectives Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Analysis
Analysis
Resources
Resources
Objectivities
Objectivities
Experiments
Experiments Interactions
Interactions
Reasonableness
Reasonableness
ROLE
ROLEOF
OFTHE
THECOMPUTER
COMPUTER
Roles
Roles Speed
Introduction
Introduction Speed
Data
Reasons Data
Reasons Algoritm
Algoritm
Manual
Manual
Comparison Calculator
Calculator
Speed
Speed
Comparison Computer
Computer
Techniques
Techniques
Implication
Implication Errors
Errors
Plotting Repetition
Repetition
Plotting Checking
Waste
Waste Checking
9/10
9/10
Data
Data
Modelling
Modelling
FORTRAN
FORTRAN
Program
Program BASIC
BASIC
High
Highlevel
level ALGOL
ALGOL
Algoritms
Algoritms Language Machine
Language Machinecode
code
DYNAMO.
Information Special
Special DYNAMO.
Information Etc.
Etc.
Development
Development
Conclusions
Conclusions Programming
Programming
ROLE
ROLEOF
OFTHE
THECOMPUTER
COMPUTER
DATA
DATA
Machine
Machinereadable
readable
Cautions
Cautions Availability
Availability Format
Format
Sampling
Sampling Punched
Punchedcard
card
Exchange
Exchange
Paper
Papertape
tape
Format
Format
Reanalysis
Reanalysis Magnetic
Magnetic
Tape
Tape
Data
Databanks
banks
Disc
Disc
DATA
INTERVAL
• Komponen Nama
NOMINAL
• Komponen Peringkat
• Komponen Nama (Nomos)
(Order)
• Komponen Jarak (Interval)
• Nilai Nol tidak Mutlak
RATIO
ORDINAL
• Komponen Nama
• Komponen Nama
• Komponen Peringkat (Order)
• Komponen Peringkat (Order)
• Komponen Jarak (Interval)
• Komponen Ratio
• Nilai Nol Mutlak
Ass.
Ass.Wr.
Wr.wb.
wb.
SISTEM
SISTEMDAN
DAN
PEMODELAN
PEMODELANSISTEM
SISTEM
Prof
ProfDrDrIrIrSoemarno,
Soemarno,MS
MS
MALANG, 2005
MALANG, 2005