Data Praktikum Perancangan Sistem Teknik Industri

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA
BAB II
DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA
Sebelum mengambil keputusan perusahaan harus mengumpulkan data yang

akan dijadikan sampel dan diolah. Pada bab ini akan dilampirkan data-data yang
didapat perusahaan dari hasil wawancara kuisioner dari responden dan pengolahan
data sampel.
II.1 Pengumpulan Data
Untuk mendapatkan data yang diinginkan maka langkah awal yang akan
dilakukan adalah pengumpulan data. Data yang diperoleh akan dijadikan sebagai
sampel uji dan hasil pengolahan data akan dijadikan acuan untuk meramal dan
menentukan target penjualan dan kapasitas produksi perusahaan di waktu yang
akan datang.
II.1.1 Proses Pengumpulan Data
Pengumpulan data sampel yang akan diuji dilakukan dengan melakukan
pengisian kuisioner melalui proses wawancara. Survey yang dilakukan saat ini
merupakan survey dengan populasi yang terbatas karena survey hanya pada. Data
awal yang diambil oleh perusahaan merupakan hasil survey dari 184 responden.
Untuk menentukan ukuran sampel yang akan dipakai maka dapat menggunakan
rumus :
(pers.II-1)
dimana :
n = ukuran sampel
z = nilai z (1.96 untuk convidence level 95%)
p = persentase terpilihnya pilihan (0.5)
c = confidence interval (0,5)

Karena populasi sudah diketahui maka dilakukan perhitungan lebih lanjut
(pers. II-2)
di mana :
n = ukuran sampel dengan populasi terbatas
n = ukuran sampel untuk populasi tidak diketahui dan tidak terbatas
N = ukuran populasi
Kemudian dari persamaan tersebut dihitung kita akan menentukan sampel random
yang akan kita ambil. Pengerjaannya sebagai berikut :
Penentuan ukuran sampel untuk populasi yang tidak diketahui
(pers. II-3)
Karena populasi sudah diketahui maka dilakukan perhitungan lebih lanjut

(menggunakan persamaan II-2)
N = 184
(pers. II-4)
II-2
Dari hasil perhitungan didapat bahwa nilai n adalah 125. Nilai ini berarti dari poulasi
sebesar 184 orang perusahaan akan merandom dan memilih 125 sampel
koresponden dari 184 koresponden. Sehingga saat ini perusahaan mendapatkan
koresponden sebagai berikut :
Tabel II.1 Rekap Data 125 Sampel yang Telah Dipilih Secara Acak
II-3
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
NPM
2011610021
2011610011
2011610188
2011610027
2011610181
2011610197
2011610028
2011610163
2011610139
No
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
NPM
2011610033
2009610201
2011610114
2011610195
2011610156
2011610127
2011610084
2011610030
2011610076
No
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
NPM
2011610158
2011610187
2011610167
2011610004
2011610104
2011610123
2011610201
2011610043
2011610034
No
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
NPM
2011610194
2011610190
2011610159
2011610192
2011610081
2011610048
2011610133
2011610036
2011610023
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
2011610041
2011610135
2011610138
2011610148
2011610065
2011610116
2011610001
2011610054
2011610083
2011610186
2011610200
2011610128
2011610071
2011610149
2011610026
2011610090
2011610089
2011610157
2011610013
2011610058
201610022
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
2011610059
2011610120
2011610087
2011610050
2011610101
2011610066
2011610025
2011610126
2011610017
2011610160
2011610164
2011610019
2011610062
2011610024
2011610016
2011610063
2011610070
2011610014
2011610189
2011610006
2011610137
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
2011610112
2011610185
2011610119
2011610121
2011610082
2011610134
2011610180
2011610099
2011610102
2011610096
2011610177
2011610008
2011610146
2011610166
2011610038
2011610117
2011610012
2011610064
2011610009
2011610093
2011610175
121
122
123
124
125
2011610092
2011610136
2011610150
2011610080
2011610045
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
2011610109
2011610142
2011610103
2011610196
2011610178
2011610140
2011610179
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
2011610100
2011610129
2011610053
2011610072
2011610154
2011610115
2011610075
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
2011610073
2011610130
2011610141
2011610108
2011610098
2011610015
2011610086
Selain sampel, data yang kita miliki adalah data historis jumlah rumah tangga
di Pulau jawa per bulan pada tahun 2007-2012.
II-4
Tabel II.2 Data Jumlah Rumah Tangga di Pulau Jawa per Bulan pada Tahun 2007-2012
Bulan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2007
81442632
81495937
81605039
81721931
82021310
82298176
82441455
82445900
82744859
82966598
83000693
83050815
2008
82847667
82894026
83114066
83294754
83461765
83567082
83652558
83856612
83896072
83939993
84137224
84338072
2009
84348533
84504396
84711612
84810546
84906781
85112274
85254126
85298885
85421553
85514076
85693574
85883914
2010
86145878
86265748
86311942
86539675
86671584
86908608
87109569
87175219
87219509
87403257
87492603
87614563
2011
87541694
87656069
87921944
87983335
88206163
88298185
88560956
88806210
88979737
88189542
88273920
88521733
2012
89660515
89766564
89871598
90074485
90166027
90199620
90456740
90461117
90596463
90598238
90805179
90840160
II.1.2 Hasil Kuesioner

Dari hasil kuesioner yang diberikan, perusahaan hanya akan menguji
beberapa pertanyaan yang diberikan kepada 125 orang. Hasil data kuesioner ini
akan berpengaruh terhadap hasil keputusan perusahaan yaitu target penjualan dan
kapasitas produksi. Berikut adalah rekap data dari kuesioner yang telah dilakukan
kepada 125 sampel:
Bagian A
A1. Manakah yang paling sesuai menggambarkan kondisi keluarga Anda:
Tabel II.3 Rekap Kondisi Keluarga
Lajang/duda/janda tanpa anak
16
Menikah tanpa anak
Keluarga dengan anak yang masih bayi
Keluarga dengan anak yang masih kecil
Keluarga dengan anak remaja
26
Keluarga dengan anak yang sudah dewasa
69
II-5
Keluarga dengan anak yang sudah menikah
Keluarga dengan anak yang sudah keluar dari rumah
Gambar II.1 Diagram Kondisi Keluarga
A2. Komposisi jumlah anggota keluarga yang tinggal di rumah:

Tabel II.4 Rekap Jumlah Anggota Keluarga
1
2
3
4
Dewasa
Remaja
Anak-anak
Bayi
418
104
17
2
Gambar II.2 Diagram Jumlah Anggota Keluarga
II-6
A3. Komposisi jumlah ruangan dirumah :

Tabel II.5 Rekap jumlah ruangan dirumah
1
2
3
4
Kamar tidur dewasa

Kamar tidur anak-anak
Ruang khusus belajar
Ruang khusus kerja
370
80
43
49
Gambar II.3 Diagram Komposisi Jumlah Ruangan di Rumah
II-7
A4. Perkiraan total pengeluaran rutin keluarga perbulan (tidak termasuk pembelian/
dan atau cicilan rumah, kendaraan,barang elektronik,furniture):
Tabel II.6 Rekap Total Pengeluaran Rutin
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sampai dengan Rp2.000.000,Rp2.000.001 s.d Rp3.000.000,Rp3.000.001 s.d Rp5.000.000,Rp5.000.001 s.d Rp7.500.000,Rp7.500.001 s.d Rp10.000.000,Lebih dari Rp10.000.000,-
6
23
41
31
14
10
Gambar II.4 Diagram Pengeluaran Rutin Keluarga
A5. Apakah keluarga Anda saat ini menggunakan lampu meja dirumah?
Tabel II.7 Rekap Penggunaan Lampu Meja di Rumah
Ya
81
Tidak
44
Gambar II.5 Diagram Penggunaan Lampu Meja
II-8
A6. Banyak lampu meja yang keluarga Anda gunakan saat ini: 211 buah
A7. Komposisi penggunaan lampu meja dikeluarga Anda saat ini:
Tabel II.8 Rekap Komposisi Penggunaan Lampu Meja di Rumah
1
2
3
4
5
Kamar tidur dewasa

Kamar tidur anak
Ruang khusus belajar
Ruang khusus kerja
Ruang lain
97
36
30
34
14
Gambar II.6 Diagram Komposisi Ruangan di Rumah
II-9
A8. Rata-rata berapa lama sebuah lampu meja dikeluarga Anda digunakan sebelum
diganti yang baru ?
3,1 tahun.
A9. Apakah keluarga Anda berminat untuk menggunakan lampu meja dirumah
Anda?
Tabel II.9 Rekap Minat Untuk Menggunakan Lampu Meja
Ya
21
Tidak
23
Gambar II.7 Diagram Jumlah Minat Menggunakan Lampu Meja
BAGIAN B
B1. Lampu Philips QDS300
Penilaian secara keseluruhan terhadap lampu meja jenis Philips QDS303
Tabel II.10 Rekap Penilaian keseluruhan Philips QDS303
1
2
3
Penilaian
Sangat buruk
Buruk
Biasa saja
Total
0
12
47
II-10
4
5
Bagus
Sangat bagus
57
9
Gambar II.8 Diagram Penilaian Keseluruhan Lampu QDS 303
Penilaian attribute QDS300:

Tabel II.11 Rekap Penilaian atribut Philips QDS303
Atribut
1
Sangat
buruk
Fleksibilitas peletakan
44
33
37
Fleksibilitas pergerakan
22
32
60
11
Fleksibilitas pengaturan
pencahayaan
23
53
41
Kesesuaian ukuran
58
42
16
Daya tarik estetika
24
61
34
II-11
2
Buruk
3
Biasa
saja
4
Bagus
5
Sangat
bagus
Gambar II.9 Diagram Penilaian Atribut Lampu QDS 303
B2. Lampu Philips QDS303

Penilaian secara keseluruhan terhadap lampu meja jenis Philips QDS300
Tabel II.12 Rekap Penilaian keseluruhan Philips QDS300
1
2
3
4
5
Penilaian
Sangat buruk
Buruk
Biasa saja
Bagus
Sangat bagus
Total
2
15
70
38
0
II-12
Gambar II.10 Diagram Penilaian Keseluruhan Lampu QDS 300
Penilaian attribute QDS303:

Tabel II.13 Rekap Penilaian atribut Philips QDS300
Atribut
1
Sangat
buruk
57
51
60
44
13
pencahayaan
30
77
15
Kesesuaian ukuran
46
63
Daya tarik estetika
16
36
II-13
2
Buruk
3
Biasa
saja
4
Bagus
5
Sangat
bagus
Gambar II.11 Diagram Penilaian Atribut Lampu QDS 300
B3. Lampu PSTI

Penilaian secara keseluruhan terhadap lampu PSTI
Tabel II.14 Rekap Penilaian keseluruhan Lampu PSTI
1
2
3
4
5
Penilaian
Sangat buruk
Buruk
Biasa saja
Bagus
Sangat bagus
Total
0
3
35
81
6
II-14
Gambar II.12 Diagram Penilaian Keseluruhan Lampu PSTI
Penilaian attribute lampu PSTI:

Tabel II.15 Rekap Penilaian atribut Lampu PSTI
Atribut
1
Sangat
buruk
53
74
26
14
90
18
pencahayaan
12
77
31
Kesesuaian ukuran
10
45
66
Daya tarik estetika
50
57
II-15
2
Buruk
3
Biasa
saja
4
Bagus
5
Sangat
bagus
Gambar II.13 Diagram Penilaian Atribut Lampu PSTI
II.2.3 Perhitungan Hasil Kuesioner

Tahapan perhitungan hasil kuesioner yang dilakukan adalah :
1. Menghitung rata-rata dan standar deviasi dari masing-masing lampu. Setelah
menghitung rata-rata dan standar deviasi maka buatlah diagram untuk
memudahkan pembacaan data yang telah dikumpulkan
a. Penilaian keseluruhan masing-masing lampu
Tabel II.16 Rata-Rata dan Standar Deviasi Penilaian Keseluruhan Kettiga Lampu
Jenis
lampu
Sangat
buruk
Buruk
Biasa
saja
Bagus
Sangat
bagus
RataRata
Standar
Deviasi
QSD 303
12
47
57
3.504
0.7685
QSD 300
15
70
38
3.152
0.6845
PSTI
35
81
3.72
0.5902
II-16
Gambar II.14 Diagram Rata-Rata dan Standar Deviasi Penilaian Keseluruhan Kettiga Lampu
b. Fleksibilitas peletakan masing-masing lampu

Tabel II.17 Rata-rata dan Standar Deviasi Fleksibilitas Peletakan Ketiga Lampu
Jenis
lampu
Sangat
buruk
Buruk
Biasa
saja
QSD 303
Bagus
Sangat
bagus
RataRata
Standar
Deviasi
44
33
37
2.928
1.0014
QSD 300
57
51
3.464
0.7245
PSTI
53
74
26
3.688
0.6402
II-17
Gambar II.15 Diagram Rata-Rata dan Standar Deviasi Fleksibilitas Peletakan Kettiga Lampu
c. Fleksibilitas pergerakan masing-masing lampu
Tabel II.18 Rata-Rata dan Standar Deviasi FleksibilitasPergerakan Ketiga Lampu
Jenis
lampu
Sangat
buruk
Buruk
Biasa
saja
QSD 303
Bagus
Sangat
bagus
RataRata
Standar
Deviasi
22
32
60
11
3.48
0.88536
QSD 300
57
51
2.496
0.76858
PSTI
14
90
18
3.976
0.62816
II-18
Gambar II.16 Diagram Rata-rata dan Standar Deviasi Fleksibilitas Pergerakan Ketiga Lampu
d. Fleksibilitas pengaturan pencahayaan masing-masing lampu

Tabel II.19 Rata-Rata dan Standar Deviasi FleksibilitasPengaturan Cahaya Ketiga Lampu
Jenis
lampu
Sangat
buruk
Buruk
Biasa
saja
QSD 303
Bagus
Sangat
bagus
RataRata
Standar
Deviasi
23
53
41
4.016
0.87974
QSD 300
30
77
15
2.832
0.65668
PSTI
12
77
31
3.168
0.69254
II-19
Gambar II.17 Diagram Rata-rata dan Standar Deviasi Pengaturan Cahaya Ketiga Lampu
e. Kesesuaian ukuran masing-masing lampu

Tabel II.20 Rata-Rata dan Standar Deviasi Kesesuaian Ukuran Ketiga Lampu
Jenis
lampu
Sangat
buruk
Buruk
Biasa
saja
Bagus
Sangat
bagus
QSD 303
58
42
16
2.552 0.82751
QSD 300
46
63
3.536 0.73555
PSTI
10
45
66
3.512 0.69114
II-20
RataRata
Standar
Deviasi
Gambar II.18 Diagram Rata-rata dan Standar Deviasi Kesesuaian Ukuran Ketiga Lampu
f.
Daya tarik estetika masing-masing lampu
Tabel II.21 Rata-Rata dan Standar Deviasi Daya Tarik Esterika Ketiga Lampu
Jenis
lampu
Sangat
buruk
Buruk
Biasa
saja
Bagus
Sangat
bagus
QSD 303
24
61
34
3.112 0.80539
QSD 300
16
36
3.208
PSTI
50
57
II-21
RataRata
Standar
Deviasi
0.7756
3.52 0.75776
Gambar II.19 Diagram Rata-rata dan Standar Deviasi Daya Tarik Estetika Ketiga Lampu
2. Membuat
tabulasi
silang
yang
bertujuan
untuk
melihat
hubungan
perbandingan antara latar belakang konsumen dengan penilaiannya

terhadap masing-masing lampu (perhitungan dalam satuan persen (%)).
a. Status keluarga dengan penilaian atribut lampu QDS 303
Tabel II.22 Status keluarga dengan penilaian atribut lampu QDS 303
A1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
total
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
12.5
0
0
0
11.54
7.25
25
25
9.6
II-22
B1
3
56.25
0
100
40
38.46
33.33
25
25
37.6
4
25
0
0
60
38.46
53.62
25
50
45.6
5
6.25
0
0
0
11.54
5.8
25
0
7.2
total
100
0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
b. Status keluarga dengan penilaian atribut lampu QDS 300

Tabel II.23 Status keluarga dengan penilaian atribut lampu QDS 300
A1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
total
1
6.25
0
0
0
0
1.45
0
0
1.6
B2
3
68.75
0
0
100
57.69
53.62
25
25
56
2
12.5
0
0
0
26.92
5.8
25
25
12
4
12.5
0
100
0
15.38
39.13
50
50
30.4
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
total
100
0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
c. Status keluarga dengan penilaian atribut lampu PSTI

Tabel II.24 Status keluarga dengan penilaian atribut lampu PSTI
A1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
total
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
6.25
0
0
0
0
1.45
0
25
2.4
II-23
B3
3
31.25
0
0
40
34.62
24.64
50
0
28
4
62.5
0
100
60
57.69
69.57
25
75
64.8
5
0
0
0
0
7.69
4.35
25
0
4.8
total
100
0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
d. Total pengeluaran rutin keluarga dengan penilaian lampu QDS 303

Tabel II.25 Total Pengeluaran Rutin dengan penilaian atribut lampu QDS 303
A4
1
2
3
4
5
6
total
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
B1
3
33.33
17.39
36.59
48.39
35.71
60
37.6
2
33.33
4.35
9.76
6.45
14.29
10
9.6
4
33.33
69.57
46.34
35.48
42.86
30
45.6
5
0
8.7
7.32
9.68
7.14
0
7.2
total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
e. Total pengeluaran rutin keluarga dengan penilaian lampu QDS 300

Tabel II.26 Total Pengeluaran Rutin dengan penilaian atribut lampu QDS 300
A4
1
2
3
4
5
6
total
1
0
0
2.44
3.23
0
0
1.6
2
16.67
13.04
4.88
9.68
35.71
10
12
II-24
B2
3
33.33
52.17
63.41
64.52
28.57
60
56
4
50
34.78
29.27
22.58
35.71
30
30.4
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
f.
Total pengeluaran rutin keluarga dengan penilaian lampu PSTI

Tabel II.27 Total Pengeluaran Rutin dengan penilaian atribut lampu PSTI
A4
1
2
3
4
5
6
total
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
B3
3
50
21.74
29.27
29.03
28.57
20
28
2
16.67
4.35
0
3.23
0
0
2.4
4
33.33
69.57
63.41
64.52
64.29
80
64.8
5
0
4.35
7.32
3.23
7.14
1
4.8
total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
g. Penggunaan lampu meja dirumah dengan penilaian lampu QDS 303

Tabel II.28 Penggunaan lampu meja dengan penilaian atribut lampu QDS 303
A5
1
2
Total
1
0
0
0
2
7.41
13.64
9.6
B1
3
43.21
27.27
37.6
4
39.51
56.82
45.6
5
9.88
2.27
7.2
total
100
100
100
h. Penggunaan lampu meja dirumah dengan penilaian lampu QDS 300

A5
1
2
Total
1
2.47
0
1.6
B2
3
58.02
52.27
56
2
11.11
13.64
12
II-25
4
28.4
34.09
30.4
5
0
0
0
total
100
100
100
i.
Penggunaan lampu meja dirumah dengan penilaian lampu PSTI

A5
1
2
Total
1
0
0
0
2
37
0
2.4
B3
3
28.4
27.27
28
4
64.2
65.91
64.8
5
37
6.82
4.8
3. Membuat peta profil dari masing-masing lampu.

a. Lampu QDS 303
Tabel II.31 Rata-Rata dan Standar Deviasi Atibut Plilips QDS 303
Standar
Lampu
Atribut
Mean
Deviasi
1
2.928
1.001418349
2
3.48
0.885364878
QDS 303
3
4.016
0.879736031
4
2.552
0.827510842
5
3.112
0.805385101
Gambar II.20 Peta Profil Atribut Philips QDS 303
II-26
total
100
100
100
b. Lampu QDS 300
Tabel II.32 Rata-Rata dan Standar Deviasi Atibut Plilips QDS 300
Lampu
Atribut
Mean
Standar Deviasi
1
3.464
0.724502054
QDS 300
2
3
2.496
2.832
0.768576397
0.656677856
4
5
3.536
3.208
0.73554895
0.775595505
Gambar II.21 Peta Profil Atribut Philips QDS 300
c. Lampu PSTI
Tabel II.33 Rata-Rata dan Standar Deviasi Atibut Lampu PSTI
Standar
Lampu
Atribut
Mean
Deviasi
1
3.688
0.640262043
2
3.976
0.628156545
PSTI
3
3.168
0.692540904
4
3.512
0.691142112
5
3.52
0.757755599
II-27
Gambar II.22 Peta Profil Atribut Lampu PSTI
d. Melakukan uji beda dari masing-masing lampu dengan metode kruskal

wallis yang akan menentukan pengaruh dari masing-masing atribut lampu
terhadap penilaian keseluruhan konsumen terhadap lampu tersebut.
Kruskal-Wallis Test: Stack B1 versus Faktor
Kruskal-Wallis Test on Stack B1
Faktor N Median Ave Rank
Z
1
125 3,000 141,8 -5,83
2
125 3,000 195,8 0,99
3
125 4,000 226,3 4,84
Overall 375
188,0
H = 38,95 DF = 2 P = 0,000
H = 44,52 DF = 2 P = 0,000 (adjusted for ties)
Z
1
125 4,000 203,5 1,96
2
125 2,000 101,4 -10,95
3
125 4,000 259,2 8,99
Overall 375
188,0
II-28
H = 136,29 DF = 2 P = 0,000
Z
1
125 4,000 264,0 9,60
2
125 3,000 129,9 -7,33
3
125 3,000 170,1 -2,26
Overall 375
188,0
H = 100,66 DF = 2 P = 0,000
Z
1
125 2,000 113,6 -9,39
2
125 4,000 226,4 4,85
3
125 4,000 224,0 4,55
Overall 375
188,0
H = 88,27 DF = 2 P = 0,000
Z
1
125 3,000 166,7 -2,69
2
125 3,000 178,1 -1,25
3
125 4,000 219,2 3,94
Overall 375
188,0
H = 16,19 DF = 2 P = 0,000
II-29
e. Menghitung proporsi permintaan lampu meja dengan menggunakan

fungsi multinomial logit
Tabel II.34 Hasil Multinomial Logit
LAMPU PSTI
Atribut
Jumlah
Responden
1
2
3
4
5
Total
= 125
Rata-rata 3.59689 3.8969 3.10988 3.45566 3.48088
Korelasi
0.52769 0.53186 0.29098 0.53466 0.57934 2.464524835
Normalisasi 0.21411 0.21581 0.11807 0.21694 0.23507
1
P PSTI =
0.44199
II.2 Pengolahan Data

Setelah melakukan survey dan mengumpulkan data dari populasi terbatas
maka langkah selanjutnya yang akan dilakukan adalah pengolahan data.
Pengolahan data berfungsi untuk mengolah data yang sudah terkumpul menjadi
angka acuan dalam menentukan keputusan.
II.2.1 Peramalan Populasi Rumah Tangga
Peramalan terhadap populasi rumah tangga perlu dilakukan untuk dapat
memprediksi penduduk atau banyak populasi yang nantinya akan menjadi target
pasar dari perusahaan. Sebelum melakukan forecast maka haruslah ditentukan
dahulu metode forecast apa yang akan dipakai. Metode forecast yang menjadi
pertimbangan kami adalah metode regresi, time series decomposition, dan nave.
Dari ketiga metode tersebut maka akan dibandingkan besarnya eror yang didapat
dari hasil forecast yang dibandingkan dengan data actual yang telah didapat (table
II.2). Berikut adalah hasil forecast dari ketiga metode alternative :
1. Regresi
II-30
Tabel II.35 Hasil Peramalan Metode Regresi
2007
2008
2009
Periode
Bulan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Data
Aktual
81,442,632
81,495,937
81,605,039
81,721,931
82,021,310
82,298,176
82,441,455
82,445,900
82,744,859
82,966,598
83,000,693
83,050,815
82,847,667
82,894,026
83,114,066
83,294,754
83,461,765
83,567,082
83,652,558
83,856,612
83,896,072
83,939,993
84,137,224
84,338,072
84,348,533
84,504,396
84,711,612
84,810,546
84,906,781
85,112,274
85,254,126
85,298,885
85,421,553
85,514,076
85,693,574
85,883,914
II-31
Forecast
81,316,380
81,451,450
81,586,500
81,721,560
81,856,620
81,991,680
82,126,740
82,261,790
82,396,860
82,531,910
82,666,970
82,802,030
82,937,090
83,072,140
83,207,200
83,342,260
83,477,320
83,612,380
83,747,440
83,882,500
84,017,550
84,152,610
84,287,670
84,422,730
84,557,780
84,692,850
84,827,900
84,962,960
85,098,020
85,233,080
85,368,140
85,503,190
85,638,260
85,773,310
85,908,370
86,043,430
2010
2011
2012
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
86,145,878
86,265,748
86,311,942
86,539,675
86,671,584
86,908,608
87,109,569
87,175,219
87,219,509
87,403,257
87,492,603
87,614,563
87,541,694
87,656,069
87,921,944
87,983,335
88,206,163
88,298,185
88,560,956
88,806,210
88,979,737
89,189,542
89,273,920
89,521,733
89,660,515
89,766,564
89,871,598
90,074,485
90,166,027
90,199,620
90,456,740
90,461,117
90,595,463
90,598,238
90,805,179
90,840,160
II-32
86,178,490
86,313,540
86,448,600
86,583,660
86,718,720
86,853,780
86,988,840
87,123,900
87,258,950
87,394,010
87,529,070
87,664,130
87,799,180
87,934,250
88,069,300
88,204,360
88,339,420
88,474,480
88,609,540
88,744,590
88,879,660
89,014,710
89,149,770
89,284,830
89,419,890
89,554,940
89,690,000
89,825,060
89,960,120
90,095,180
90,230,240
90,365,300
90,500,350
90,635,420
90,770,470
90,905,530
2013
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
91,040,580
91,175,650
91,310,700
91,445,760
91,580,820
91,715,880
91,850,940
91,985,990
92,121,060
92,256,110
92,391,170
92,526,230
Intercept 81,200,000
Slope
135,058.3
Perhitungan Eror pada forecast dengan metode Regresi :
Tabel II.36 Hasil Perhitungan Eror Peramalan Metode Regresi
2007
2008
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Error
126,252
44,487
18,539
371
164,690
306,496
314,715
184,110
347,999
434,688
333,723
248,785
-89,423
-178,114
-93,134
-47,506
-15,555
-45,298
-94,882
-25,888
-121,478
-212,617
-150,446
-84,658
REGRESI LINIER
|Error|
Error^2
126,252
15,939,567,504
44,487
1,979,093,169
18,539
343,694,521
371
137,641
164,690
27,122,796,100
306,496
93,939,798,016
314,715
99,045,531,225
184,110
33,896,492,100
347,999
121,103,304,001
434,688
188,953,657,344
333,723
111,371,040,729
248,785
61,893,976,225
89,423
7,996,472,929
178,114
31,724,596,996
93,134
8,673,941,956
47,506
2,256,820,036
15,555
241,958,025
45,298
2,051,908,804
94,882
9,002,593,924
25,888
670,188,544
121,478
14,756,904,484
212,617
45,205,988,689
150,446
22,633,998,916
84,658
7,166,976,964
II-33
PE
0.1550%
0.0546%
0.0227%
0.0005%
0.2008%
0.3724%
0.3817%
0.2233%
0.4206%
0.5239%
0.4021%
0.2996%
-0.1079%
-0.2149%
-0.1121%
-0.0570%
-0.0186%
-0.0542%
-0.1134%
-0.0309%
-0.1448%
-0.2533%
-0.1788%
-0.1004%
|PE|
0.1550%
0.0546%
0.0227%
0.0005%
0.2008%
0.3724%
0.3817%
0.2233%
0.4206%
0.5239%
0.4021%
0.2996%
0.1079%
0.2149%
0.1121%
0.0570%
0.0186%
0.0542%
0.1134%
0.0309%
0.1448%
0.2533%
0.1788%
0.1004%
2009
2010
2011
2012
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
-209,247
-188,454
-116,288
-152,414
-191,239
-120,806
-114,014
-204,305
-216,707
-259,234
-214,796
-159,516
-32,612
-47,792
-136,658
-43,985
-47,136
54,828
120,729
51,319
-39,441
9,247
-36,467
-49,567
-257,486
-278,181
-147,356
-221,025
-133,257
-176,295
-48,584
61,620
100,077
174,832
124,150
236,903
240,625
211,624
181,598
249,425
205,907
104,440
226,500
95,817
95,113
-37,182
34,709
-65,370
209,247
188,454
116,288
152,414
191,239
120,806
114,014
204,305
216,707
259,234
214,796
159,516
32,612
47,792
136,658
43,985
47,136
54,828
120,729
51,319
39,441
9,247
36,467
49,567
257,486
278,181
147,356
221,025
133,257
176,295
48,584
61,620
100,077
174,832
124,150
236,903
240,625
211,624
181,598
249,425
205,907
104,440
226,500
95,817
95,113
37,182
34,709
65,370
II-34
43,784,307,009
35,514,910,116
13,522,898,944
23,230,027,396
36,572,355,121
14,594,089,636
12,999,192,196
41,740,533,025
46,961,923,849
67,202,266,756
46,137,321,616
25,445,354,256
1,063,542,544
2,284,075,264
18,675,408,964
1,934,680,225
2,221,802,496
3,006,109,584
14,575,491,441
2,633,639,761
1,555,592,481
85,507,009
1,329,842,089
2,456,887,489
66,299,040,196
77,384,668,761
21,713,790,736
48,852,050,625
17,757,428,049
31,079,927,025
2,360,405,056
3,797,024,400
10,015,405,929
30,566,228,224
15,413,222,500
56,123,031,409
57,900,390,625
44,784,717,376
32,977,833,604
62,212,830,625
42,397,692,649
10,907,713,600
51,302,250,000
9,180,897,489
9,046,482,769
1,382,501,124
1,204,714,681
4,273,236,900
-0.2481%
-0.2230%
-0.1373%
-0.1797%
-0.2252%
-0.1419%
-0.1337%
-0.2395%
-0.2537%
-0.3031%
-0.2507%
-0.1857%
-0.0379%
-0.0554%
-0.1583%
-0.0508%
-0.0544%
0.0631%
0.1386%
0.0589%
-0.0452%
0.0106%
-0.0417%
-0.0566%
-0.2941%
-0.3174%
-0.1676%
-0.2512%
-0.1511%
-0.1997%
-0.0549%
0.0694%
0.1125%
0.1960%
0.1391%
0.2646%
0.2684%
0.2357%
0.2021%
0.2769%
0.2284%
0.1158%
0.2504%
0.1059%
0.1050%
-0.0410%
0.0382%
-0.0720%
0.2481%
0.2230%
0.1373%
0.1797%
0.2252%
0.1419%
0.1337%
0.2395%
0.2537%
0.3031%
0.2507%
0.1857%
0.0379%
0.0554%
0.1583%
0.0508%
0.0544%
0.0631%
0.1386%
0.0589%
0.0452%
0.0106%
0.0417%
0.0566%
0.2941%
0.3174%
0.1676%
0.2512%
0.1511%
0.1997%
0.0549%
0.0694%
0.1125%
0.1960%
0.1391%
0.2646%
0.2684%
0.2357%
0.2021%
0.2769%
0.2284%
0.1158%
0.2504%
0.1059%
0.1050%
0.0410%
0.0382%
0.0720%
REGRESI LINIER
MAE =
141,787.93056
MSE =
28,839,342,811.95830
MAPE =
0.16519%
2. Time Series Decomposition
Tabel II.37 Hasil Peramalan Metode Time Series Decomposition
2007
2008
2009
Periode
Bulan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Actual Demand Seasonal Index

81,442,632
81,495,937
81,605,039
81,721,931
82,021,310
82,298,176
82,441,455
82,445,900
82,744,859
82,966,598
83,000,693
83,050,815
82,847,667
82,894,026
83,114,066
83,294,754
83,461,765
83,567,082
83,652,558
83,856,612
83,896,072
83,939,993
84,137,224
84,338,072
84,348,533
84,504,396
84,711,612
84,810,546
84,906,781
85,112,274
85,254,126
85,298,885
85,421,553
85,514,076
85,693,574
85,883,914
II-35
0.999376
0.999086
0.999523
0.999820
0.999978
1.000169
1.000713
1.000414
1.000404
1.000539
1.000304
1.000625
0.999376
0.999086
0.999523
0.999820
0.999978
1.000169
1.000713
1.000414
1.000404
1.000539
1.000304
1.000625
0.999376
0.999086
0.999523
0.999820
0.999978
1.000169
1.000713
1.000414
1.000404
1.000539
1.000304
1.000625
Deseasonalized
Data
81,493,499.9177
81,570,494.3910
81,643,986.3327
81,736,681.8295
82,023,108.6920
82,284,305.6803
82,382,707.6288
82,411,754.4642
82,711,456.9764
82,921,884.6017
82,975,506.3640
82,998,930.8542
82,899,412.4827
82,969,862.4470
83,153,733.5404
83,309,788.7245
83,463,595.2806
83,552,997.8222
83,592,947.6028
83,821,882.2082
83,862,205.2606
83,894,755.0075
84,111,692.4826
84,285,383.6691
84,401,215.9024
84,581,705.7104
84,752,041.9952
84,825,854.3253
84,908,642.9692
85,097,929.3996
85,193,374.3334
85,263,557.8809
85,387,070.4622
85,467,989.6830
85,667,570.2068
85,830,259.9388
Trend Line
Forecast
81,320,487.5837
81,455,232.6338
81,589,977.6839
81,724,722.7340
81,859,467.7841
81,994,212.8342
82,128,957.8843
82,263,702.9344
82,398,447.9845
82,533,193.0346
82,667,938.0847
82,802,683.1348
82,937,428.1849
83,072,173.2350
83,206,918.2851
83,341,663.3352
83,476,408.3853
83,611,153.4354
83,745,898.4855
83,880,643.5356
84,015,388.5857
84,150,133.6358
84,284,878.6859
84,419,623.7360
84,554,368.7861
84,689,113.8362
84,823,858.8863
84,958,603.9364
85,093,348.9864
85,228,094.0365
85,362,839.0866
85,497,584.1367
85,632,329.1868
85,767,074.2369
85,901,819.2870
86,036,564.3371
81,269,727.6596
81,380,780.5949
81,551,056.1154
81,709,974.0627
81,857,672.6806
82,008,034.2541
82,187,524.3058
82,297,787.1282
82,431,723.6032
82,577,696.8414
82,693,031.3605
82,854,444.6025
82,885,658.9729
82,996,243.2735
83,167,225.3735
83,326,622.8584
83,474,577.8237
83,625,247.4162
83,805,617.9525
83,915,397.6739
84,049,317.1863
84,195,509.3343
84,310,462.7727
84,472,395.9828
84,501,590.2862
84,611,705.9521
84,783,394.6316
84,943,271.6540
85,091,482.9669
85,242,460.5782
85,423,711.5991
85,533,008.2196
85,666,910.7694
85,813,321.8273
85,927,894.1849
86,090,347.3630
2010
2011
2012
2013
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
86,145,878
86,265,748
86,311,942
86,539,675
86,671,584
86,908,608
87,109,569
87,175,219
87,219,509
87,403,257
87,492,603
87,614,563
87,541,694
87,656,069
87,921,944
87,983,335
88,206,163
88,298,185
88,560,956
88,806,210
88,979,737
89,189,542
89,273,920
89,521,733
89,660,515
89,766,564
89,871,598
90,074,485
90,166,027
90,199,620
90,456,740
90,461,117
90,595,463
90,598,238
90,805,179
90,840,160
0.999376
0.999086
0.999523
0.999820
0.999978
1.000169
1.000713
1.000414
1.000404
1.000539
1.000304
1.000625
0.999376
0.999086
0.999523
0.999820
0.999978
1.000169
1.000713
1.000414
1.000404
1.000539
1.000304
1.000625
0.999376
0.999086
0.999523
0.999820
0.999978
1.000169
1.000713
1.000414
1.000404
1.000539
1.000304
1.000625
0.999544
0.999231
0.999767
0.999704
0.999953
0.999437
1.000717
1.000815
1.000376
1.000931
1.000258
1.000744
II-36
86,199,683.4987
86,344,669.1013
86,353,135.7787
86,555,295.4336
86,673,484.6705
86,893,960.6502
87,047,495.1539
87,139,114.7843
87,184,300.6725
87,356,152.5419
87,466,053.2898
87,559,827.7544
87,596,371.3057
87,736,262.0507
87,963,906.1784
87,999,216.0146
88,208,097.3232
88,283,303.4545
88,497,847.9027
88,769,430.2981
88,943,818.1126
89,141,474.8548
89,246,829.7475
89,465,806.2924
89,716,515.6913
89,848,687.8586
89,914,490.6825
90,090,743.4677
90,168,004.3022
90,184,417.9916
90,392,280.9765
90,423,651.9070
90,558,891.8845
90,549,411.6627
90,777,624.0856
90,783,409.6345
86,171,309.3872
86,306,054.4373
86,440,799.4874
86,575,544.5375
86,710,289.5876
86,845,034.6377
86,979,779.6878
87,114,524.7379
87,249,269.7880
87,384,014.8381
87,518,759.8882
87,653,504.9383
87,788,249.9884
87,922,995.0385
88,057,740.0886
88,192,485.1387
88,327,230.1888
88,461,975.2389
88,596,720.2890
88,731,465.3391
88,866,210.3892
89,000,955.4393
89,135,700.4894
89,270,445.5395
89,405,190.5896
89,539,935.6397
89,674,680.6898
89,809,425.7399
89,944,170.7900
90,078,915.8401
90,213,660.8902
90,348,405.9403
90,483,150.9904
90,617,896.0405
90,752,641.0906
90,887,386.1407
91,022,131.1908
91,156,876.2409
91,291,621.2910
91,426,366.3411
91,561,111.3912
91,695,856.4413
91,830,601.4914
91,965,346.5415
92,100,091.5915
92,234,836.6416
92,369,581.6917
92,504,326.7418
86,117,521.5995
86,227,168.6308
86,399,563.8897
86,559,920.4497
86,708,388.1100
86,859,673.7403
87,041,805.2458
87,150,618.7653
87,284,504.3525
87,431,134.3202
87,545,325.5971
87,708,298.7433
87,733,452.9128
87,842,631.3094
88,015,733.1478
88,176,569.2453
88,325,293.2531
88,476,886.9024
88,659,898.8925
88,768,229.3110
88,902,097.9357
89,048,946.8132
89,162,757.0093
89,326,250.1235
89,349,384.2261
89,458,093.9880
89,631,902.4059
89,793,218.0410
89,942,198.3963
90,094,100.0644
90,277,992.5391
90,385,839.8567
90,519,691.5188
90,666,759.3061
90,780,188.4216
90,944,201.5037
90,980,647.1984
91,086,808.3156
91,270,337.9741
91,399,319.4399
91,556,832.7530
91,644,269.5310
91,896,433.9342
92,040,323.5098
92,134,686.3090
92,320,711.3652
92,393,412.6514
92,573,179.5632
Perhitungan Eror pada forecast dengan metode Time Series Decomposition :
II-37
Tabel II.38 Hasil Perhitungan Eror Metode Time Series Decomposition
2007
2008
2009
2010
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
Error
172,904.34036
115,156.40514
53,982.88457
11,956.93730
163,637.31942
290,141.74588
253,930.69422
148,112.87180
313,135.39682
388,901.15863
307,661.63951
196,370.39747
-37,991.97294
-102,217.27349
-53,159.37353
-31,868.85835
-12,812.82372
-58,165.41618
-153,059.95245
-58,785.67390
-153,245.18630
-255,516.33432
-173,238.77271
-134,323.98277
-153,057.28624
-107,309.95213
-71,782.63163
-132,725.65401
-184,701.96686
-130,186.57824
-169,585.59912
-234,123.21959
-245,357.76943
-299,245.82727
-234,320.18492
-206,433.36301
28,356.40045
38,579.36924
-87,621.88973
-20,245.44966
-36,804.11001
48,934.25970
67,763.75421
DECOMPOSITION
|Error|
Error^2
172,904.34036
29,895,910,914.92500
115,156.40514
13,260,997,644.97320
53,982.88457
2,914,151,826.88916
11,956.93730
142,968,349.58251
163,637.31942
26,777,172,308.03920
290,141.74588
84,182,232,702.39410
253,930.69422
64,480,797,465.76790
148,112.87180
21,937,422,791.75900
313,135.39682
98,053,776,741.74570
388,901.15863
151,244,111,184.69400
307,661.63951
94,655,684,425.31540
196,370.39747
38,561,333,004.02880
37,991.97294
1,443,390,008.08526
102,217.27349
10,448,371,000.21320
53,159.37353
2,825,918,993.85338
31,868.85835
1,015,624,132.83780
12,812.82372
164,168,451.67886
58,165.41618
3,383,215,639.34924
153,059.95245
23,427,349,044.88340
58,785.67390
3,455,755,455.74321
153,245.18630
23,484,087,124.87360
255,516.33432
65,288,597,104.20500
173,238.77271
30,011,672,368.53210
134,323.98277
18,042,932,347.10610
153,057.28624
23,426,532,872.50240
107,309.95213
11,515,425,825.20690
71,782.63163
5,152,746,203.57688
132,725.65401
17,616,099,232.11270
184,701.96686
34,114,816,563.13470
130,186.57824
16,948,545,153.69800
169,585.59912
28,759,275,430.00830
234,123.21959
54,813,681,953.08910
245,357.76943
60,200,435,017.25030
299,245.82727
89,548,065,138.92650
234,320.18492
54,905,949,060.98400
206,433.36301
42,614,733,364.93060
28,356.40045
804,085,446.70506
II-38 1,488,367,731.04141
38,579.36924
87,621.88973
7,677,595,559.89658
20,245.44966
409,878,232.06545
36,804.11001
1,354,542,513.36699
48,934.25970
2,394,561,772.45853
67,763.75421
4,591,926,384.13383
PE
0.21230%
0.14130%
0.06615%
0.01463%
0.19951%
0.35255%
0.30801%
0.17965%
0.37843%
0.46874%
0.37067%
0.23645%
-0.04586%
-0.12331%
-0.06396%
-0.03826%
-0.01535%
-0.06960%
-0.18297%
-0.07010%
-0.18266%
-0.30440%
-0.20590%
-0.15927%
-0.18146%
-0.12699%
-0.08474%
-0.15650%
-0.21754%
-0.15296%
-0.19892%
-0.27447%
-0.28723%
-0.34994%
-0.27344%
-0.24036%
0.03292%
0.04472%
-0.10152%
-0.02339%
-0.04246%
0.05631%
0.07779%
|PE|
0.21230%
0.14130%
0.06615%
0.01463%
0.19951%
0.35255%
0.30801%
0.17965%
0.37843%
0.46874%
0.37067%
0.23645%
0.04586%
0.12331%
0.06396%
0.03826%
0.01535%
0.06960%
0.18297%
0.07010%
0.18266%
0.30440%
0.20590%
0.15927%
0.18146%
0.12699%
0.08474%
0.15650%
0.21754%
0.15296%
0.19892%
0.27447%
0.28723%
0.34994%
0.27344%
0.24036%
0.03292%
0.04472%
0.10152%
0.02339%
0.04246%
0.05631%
0.07779%
2011
2012
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
-191,758.91285
-186,562.30939
-93,789.14783
-193,234.24532
-119,130.25315
-178,701.90236
-98,942.89246
37,980.68902
77,639.06433
140,595.18683
111,162.99065
195,482.87650
311,130.77385
308,470.01197
239,695.59407
281,266.95903
223,828.60371
105,519.93558
178,747.46087
75,277.14332
75,771.48121
-68,521.30612
24,990.57844
-104,041.50374
191,758.91285
186,562.30939
93,789.14783
193,234.24532
119,130.25315
178,701.90236
98,942.89246
37,980.68902
77,639.06433
140,595.18683
111,162.99065
195,482.87650
311,130.77385
308,470.01197
239,695.59407
281,266.95903
223,828.60371
105,519.93558
178,747.46087
75,277.14332
75,771.48121
68,521.30612
24,990.57844
104,041.50374
DECOMPOSITION
MAE =
139,216.46872
MSE =
27,573,647,019.40730
MAPE =
0.16209%
3. Nave
Tabel II.39 Hasil Peramalan Metode Naive
LAJU PERTUMBUHAN
2007-2008
1.55%
2008-2009
1.83%
2009-2010
2.02%
2010-2011
2.18%
2011-2012
1.47%
RATA2
1.81%
II-39
36,771,480,656.51950
34,805,495,285.73390
8,796,404,250.96168
37,339,473,563.39070
14,192,017,215.50880
31,934,369,906.75000
9,789,695,969.15682
1,442,532,738.09723
6,027,824,309.97721
19,767,006,559.02490
12,357,210,490.45040
38,213,555,004.64260
96,802,358,436.93190
95,153,748,287.59330
57,453,977,815.22840
79,111,102,241.07130
50,099,243,837.45220
11,134,456,805.04010
31,950,654,765.87320
5,666,648,306.47503
5,741,317,364.29797
4,695,169,392.88198
624,529,010.58459
10,824,634,501.24890
-0.21905%
-0.21283%
-0.10667%
-0.21963%
-0.13506%
-0.20238%
-0.11172%
0.04277%
0.08725%
0.15764%
0.12452%
0.21836%
0.34701%
0.34364%
0.26671%
0.31226%
0.24824%
0.11698%
0.19761%
0.08321%
0.08364%
-0.07563%
0.02752%
-0.11453%
0.21905%
0.21283%
0.10667%
0.21963%
0.13506%
0.20238%
0.11172%
0.04277%
0.08725%
0.15764%
0.12452%
0.21836%
0.34701%
0.34364%
0.26671%
0.31226%
0.24824%
0.11698%
0.19761%
0.08321%
0.08364%
0.07563%
0.02752%
0.11453%
2009
2010
2011
Periode
Bulan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Data
Aktual
84,348,533
84,504,396
84,711,612
84,810,546
84,906,781
85,112,274
85,254,126
85,298,885
85,421,553
85,514,076
85,693,574
85,883,914
86,145,878
86,265,748
86,311,942
86,539,675
86,671,584
86,908,608
87,109,569
87,175,219
87,219,509
87,403,257
87,492,603
87,614,563
87,541,694
87,656,069
87,921,944
87,983,335
88,206,163
88,298,185
88,560,956
88,806,210
88,979,737
89,189,542
89,273,920
89,521,733
II-40
Forecast
84,131,775.280929
84,178,852.828330
84,402,303.367171
84,585,791.964525
84,755,391.573425
84,862,340.948080
84,949,141.794553
85,156,358.556290
85,196,430.171735
85,241,031.931035
85,441,319.938788
85,645,281.008708
85,894,566.740845
86,053,286.571288
86,264,300.656640
86,365,048.029045
86,463,046.931175
86,672,306.435467
86,816,758.456717
86,862,337.849458
86,987,254.245016
87,081,473.109481
87,264,261.148496
87,458,089.911747
87,881,805.843424
88,004,091.346933
88,051,216.203437
88,283,538.257083
88,418,105.358796
88,659,905.635627
88,864,916.206000
88,931,889.120870
88,977,071.609819
89,164,522.320579
89,255,668.734165
89,380,086.353318
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
2012
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
89,660,515
89,766,564
89,871,598
90,074,485
90,166,027
90,199,620
90,456,740
90,461,117
90,595,463
90,598,238
90,805,179
90,840,160
89,447,277.807409
89,564,142.491330
89,835,804.986084
89,898,532.328690
90,126,210.788045
90,220,235.897936
90,488,726.825662
90,739,319.448091
90,916,623.736675
91,130,995.714905
91,217,210.432281
91,470,417.758327
90,980,985.905204
91,088,596.736730
91,195,177.619894
91,401,052.628389
91,493,942.808774
91,528,030.548059
91,788,937.270444
91,793,378.732500
91,929,703.306728
91,932,519.175406
92,142,507.888991
92,178,004.069979
Perhitungan Eror pada forecast dengan metode Nave :

Tabel II.40 Hasil Perhitungan Eror Metode Naive
NAIVE
2009
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Error
216,757.71907
325,543.17167
309,308.63283
224,754.03547
151,389.42657
249,933.05192
304,984.20545
142,526.44371
225,122.82826
273,044.06896
252,254.06121
238,632.99129
|Error|
216,757.71907
325,543.17167
309,308.63283
224,754.03547
151,389.42657
249,933.05192
304,984.20545
142,526.44371
225,122.82826
273,044.06896
252,254.06121
238,632.99129
II-41
Error^2
46,983,908,776.77890
105,978,356,620.88900
95,671,830,342.87430
50,514,376,462.10360
22,918,758,478.70430
62,466,530,442.12570
93,015,365,572.23990
20,313,787,156.77250
50,680,287,806.02440
74,553,063,596.86760
63,632,111,397.73860
56,945,704,533.18810
PE
0.25698%
0.38524%
0.36513%
0.26501%
0.17830%
0.29365%
0.35774%
0.16709%
0.26354%
0.31930%
0.29437%
0.27786%
|PE|
0.25698%
0.38524%
0.36513%
0.26501%
0.17830%
0.29365%
0.35774%
0.16709%
0.26354%
0.31930%
0.29437%
0.27786%
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
2010
2011
2012
MAE =
MSE =
MAPE =
251,311.25916
212,461.42871
47,641.34336
174,626.97096
208,537.06882
236,301.56453
292,810.54328
312,881.15054
232,254.75498
321,783.89052
228,341.85150
156,473.08825
-340,111.84342
-348,022.34693
-129,272.20344
-300,203.25708
-211,942.35880
-361,720.63563
-303,960.20600
-125,679.12087
2,665.39018
25,019.67942
18,251.26584
141,646.64668
213,237.19259
202,421.50867
35,793.01392
175,952.67131
39,816.21195
-20,615.89794
-31,986.82566
-278,202.44809
-321,160.73668
-532,757.71491
-412,031.43228
-630,257.75833
251,311.25916
212,461.42871
47,641.34336
174,626.97096
208,537.06882
236,301.56453
292,810.54328
312,881.15054
232,254.75498
321,783.89052
228,341.85150
156,473.08825
340,111.84342
348,022.34693
129,272.20344
300,203.25708
211,942.35880
361,720.63563
303,960.20600
125,679.12087
2,665.39018
25,019.67942
18,251.26584
141,646.64668
213,237.19259
202,421.50867
35,793.01392
175,952.67131
39,816.21195
20,615.89794
31,986.82566
278,202.44809
321,160.73668
532,757.71491
412,031.43228
630,257.75833
63,157,348,978.24650
45,139,858,690.22840
2,269,697,597.12761
30,494,578,984.96500
43,487,709,074.03850
55,838,429,400.98780
85,738,014,257.99140
97,894,614,364.66650
53,942,271,212.80540
103,544,872,197.61600
52,140,001,148.39640
24,483,827,347.41910
115,676,066,037.19500
121,119,553,964.64400
16,711,302,581.32630
90,121,995,563.23210
44,919,563,452.10100
130,841,818,238.40200
92,391,806,831.82530
15,795,241,422.54600
7,104,304.81509
625,984,358.32701
333,108,704.59134
20,063,772,516.14820
45,470,100,304.26770
40,974,467,172.39060
1,281,139,845.20702
30,959,342,541.09610
1,585,330,734.41787
425,015,247.72114
1,023,157,015.92654
77,396,602,124.04960
103,144,218,781.72100
283,830,782,790.93400
169,769,901,187.70600
397,224,841,931.77900
0.29173%
0.24629%
0.05520%
0.20179%
0.24061%
0.27190%
0.33614%
0.35891%
0.26629%
0.36816%
0.26098%
0.17859%
-0.38851%
-0.39703%
-0.14703%
-0.34120%
-0.24028%
-0.40966%
-0.34322%
-0.14152%
0.00300%
0.02805%
0.02044%
0.15823%
0.23783%
0.22550%
0.03983%
0.19534%
0.04416%
-0.02286%
-0.03536%
-0.30754%
-0.35450%
-0.58804%
-0.45375%
-0.69381%
0.29173%
0.24629%
0.05520%
0.20179%
0.24061%
0.27190%
0.33614%
0.35891%
0.26629%
0.36816%
0.26098%
0.17859%
0.38851%
0.39703%
0.14703%
0.34120%
0.24028%
0.40966%
0.34322%
0.14152%
0.00300%
0.02805%
0.02044%
0.15823%
0.23783%
0.22550%
0.03983%
0.19534%
0.04416%
0.02286%
0.03536%
0.30754%
0.35450%
0.58804%
0.45375%
0.69381%
NAIVE
224,841.74828
66,739,531,710.27430
0.25661%
Dari penelitian dengan hitungan statistic, perusahaan menemukan cara yang

cocok untuk meramalkan populasi rumah tangga pada tahun 2013 adalah dengan
menggunakan
metode
regresi.
Metode
ini
didapat
dengan
sebelumnya
membandingkan dengan dua metode peramalan kuantitatif yang lain dan didapat
bahwa eror dengan nilai yang paling kecil adalah dengan menggunakan metode
II-42
regresi. Berikut adalah hasil perhitungan peramalan tahun 2013 dengan metode
time series decomposition dan didapatkan eror yang paling kecil diantara dua
metode forecast yang lainnya. Berikut adalah tabel peramalan jumlah populasi
penduduk tahun 2013 dengan metode decomposition :
Tabel II.41 peramalan jumlah populasi penduduk tahun 2013 dengan metode decomposition
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
90980647,2
91086808,32
91270337,97
91399319,44
91556832,75
91644269,53
91896433,93
92040323,51
92134686,31
92320711,37
92393412,65
92573179,56
Berikut adalah hasil peramalan populasi rumah tangga di Pulau jawa sampai
dengan tahun 2027 dengan mengasumsikan bahwa tingkat pertumbuhan sebesar
2%/tahun selama 5 tahun pertama dan kemudian naik menjadi 3%/tahun di tahun
selanjutnya :
Tabel II.42 Hasil Peramalan Pertumbuhan Penduduk dalam 14 tahun
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agus
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
2013
90,980,647.19837
91,086,808.31559
91,270,337.97412
91,399,319.43989
91,556,832.75304
91,644,269.53096
91,896,433.93416
92,040,323.50984
92,134,686.30896
92,320,711.36524
92,393,412.65137
92,573,179.56323
2014
92,800,260.1423
92,908,544.4819
93,095,744.7336
93,227,305.8287
93,387,969.4081
93,477,154.9216
93,734,362.6128
93,881,129.9800
93,977,380.0351
94,167,125.5925
94,241,280.9044
94,424,643.1545
2015
94,656,265.3452
94,766,715.3715
94,957,659.6283
95,091,851.9453
95,255,728.7963
95,346,698.0200
95,609,049.8651
95,758,752.5796
95,856,927.6358
96,050,468.1044
96,126,106.5225
96,313,136.0176
II-43
2016
96,549,390.6521
96,662,049.6790
96,856,812.8208
96,993,688.9842
97,160,843.3722
97,253,631.9804
97,521,230.8624
97,673,927.6312
97,774,066.1886
97,971,477.4665
98,048,628.6529
98,239,398.7379
2017
98,480,378.4651
98,595,290.6725
98,793,949.0773
98,933,562.7639
99,104,060.2396
99,198,704.6200
99,471,655.4797
99,627,406.1839
99,729,547.5123
99,930,907.0158
100,009,601.2260
100,204,186.7127
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agus
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agus
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
100,449,986.0344
100,567,196.4860
100,769,828.0588
100,912,234.0191
101,086,141.4444
101,182,678.7124
101,461,088.5892
101,619,954.3075
101,724,138.4626
101,929,525.1561
102,009,793.2505
102,208,270.4469
2023
116,449,064.5735
116,584,943.6112
116,819,849.1402
116,984,936.6781
117,186,543.0475
117,298,456.1995
117,621,209.5518
117,805,378.4603
117,926,156.4502
118,164,255.9192
118,257,308.6400
118,487,398.1082
103,463,485.6155
103,584,212.3806
103,792,922.9006
103,939,601.0397
104,118,725.6878
104,218,159.0738
104,504,921.2469
104,668,552.9368
104,775,862.6164
104,987,410.9108
105,070,087.0480
105,274,518.5604
2024
119,942,536.5107
120,082,491.9196
120,324,444.6144
120,494,484.7784
120,702,139.3390
120,817,409.8855
121,149,845.8383
121,339,539.8141
121,463,941.1437
121,709,183.5968
121,805,027.8992
122,042,020.0514
106,567,390.1839
106,691,738.7520
106,906,710.5876
107,057,789.0709
107,242,287.4584
107,344,703.8460
107,640,068.8843
107,808,609.5249
107,919,138.4949
108,137,033.2381
108,222,189.6595
108,432,754.1172
109,764,411.8895
109,892,490.9146
110,113,911.9052
110,269,522.7430
110,459,556.0821
110,565,044.9614
110,869,270.9509
111,042,867.8106
111,156,712.6498
111,381,144.2353
111,468,855.3493
111,685,736.7407
113,057,344.2461
113,189,265.6420
113,417,329.2624
113,577,608.4253
113,773,342.7646
113,881,996.3102
114,195,349.0794
114,374,153.8449
114,491,414.0293
114,722,578.5623
114,812,921.0097
115,036,308.8429
2025
123,540,812.6060
123,684,966.6772
123,934,177.9529
124,109,319.3218
124,323,203.5191
124,441,932.1821
124,784,341.2135
124,979,726.0085
125,107,859.3780
125,360,459.1047
125,459,178.7362
125,703,280.6530
2026
127,247,036.9842
127,395,515.6775
127,652,203.2915
127,832,598.9014
128,052,899.6247
128,175,190.1475
128,527,871.4499
128,729,117.7888
128,861,095.1593
129,121,272.8778
129,222,954.0983
129,474,379.0726
2027
131,064,448.0938
131,217,381.1478
131,481,769.3902
131,667,576.8685
131,894,486.6134
132,020,445.8520
132,383,707.5934
132,590,991.3224
132,726,928.0141
132,994,911.0642
133,099,642.7212
133,358,610.4447
II.2.3 Estimasi Permintaan Total Pasar

Estimasi permintaan total pasar akan menentukan target pasar yang akan
dicapai oleh perusahaan. Demand total pasar dapat dihitung dengan rumus sebagai
berikut :
Demand =
(pers II-5)
Maka didapatlah demand total pasar sebagai berikut :
II-44
Tabel II.43 Hasil Peramalan Permintaan Total Pasar dalam 14 tahun

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agus
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
TOTAL
2013
9,912,881.0462
9,924,447.9295
9,944,444.5741
9,958,497.8697
9,975,659.8793
9,985,186.6347
10,012,661.4418
10,028,339.0644
10,038,620.4510
10,058,888.9840
10,066,810.2203
10,086,396.8914
119,992,834.9864
2014
2015
10,111,138.6671 10,313,361.4404
10,122,936.8880 10,325,395.6258
10,143,333.4656 10,346,200.1349
10,157,667.8271 10,360,821.1836
10,175,173.0768 10,378,676.5384
10,184,890.3674 10,388,588.1748
10,212,914.6707 10,417,172.9641
10,228,905.8457 10,433,483.9626
10,239,392.8600 10,444,180.7172
10,260,066.7637 10,465,268.0990
10,268,146.4247 10,473,509.3532
10,288,124.8292 10,493,887.3258
122,392,691.6861 124,840,545.5198
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agus
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
TOTAL
2018
10,944,621.6675
10,957,392.4413
10,979,470.3528
10,994,986.3267
11,013,934.5719
11,024,452.8798
11,054,787.2869
11,072,096.6490
11,083,448.1305
11,105,826.2288
11,114,571.9137
11,136,197.1812
132,481,785.6300
2019
11,272,960.3175
11,286,114.2145
11,308,854.4634
11,324,835.9165
11,344,352.6091
11,355,186.4662
11,386,430.9055
11,404,259.5485
11,415,951.5744
11,439,001.0156
11,448,009.0711
11,470,283.0967
136,456,239.1989
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agus
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
TOTAL
2023
12,687,816.1521
12,702,620.9791
12,728,215.3295
12,746,202.5958
12,768,168.8053
12,780,362.4069
12,815,528.2986
12,835,594.5933
12,848,754.0716
12,874,696.4207
12,884,835.0665
12,909,904.6785
153,582,699.3978
2024
13,068,450.6367
13,083,699.6085
13,110,061.7894
13,128,588.6736
13,151,213.8695
13,163,773.2791
13,199,994.1475
13,220,662.4311
13,234,216.6937
13,260,937.3133
13,271,380.1184
13,297,201.8188
158,190,180.3798
2016
10,519,628.6693
10,531,903.5383
10,553,124.1376
10,568,037.6073
10,586,250.0692
10,596,359.9383
10,625,516.4234
10,642,153.6419
10,653,064.3315
10,674,573.4610
10,682,979.5402
10,703,765.0723
127,337,356.4302
2017
10,730,021.2426
10,742,541.6091
10,764,186.6204
10,779,398.3595
10,797,975.0705
10,808,287.1370
10,838,026.7518
10,854,996.7147
10,866,125.6182
10,888,064.9302
10,896,639.1310
10,917,840.3737
129,884,103.5588
2020
11,611,149.1270
11,624,697.6409
11,648,120.0973
11,664,580.9939
11,684,683.1874
11,695,842.0602
11,728,023.8327
11,746,387.3349
11,758,430.1217
11,782,171.0461
11,791,449.3432
11,814,391.5896
140,549,926.3749
2021
11,959,483.6009
11,973,438.5702
11,997,563.7002
12,014,518.4238
12,035,223.6830
12,046,717.3220
12,079,864.5476
12,098,778.9550
12,111,183.0253
12,135,636.1775
12,145,192.8235
12,168,823.3372
144,766,424.1661
2022
12,318,268.1089
12,332,641.7273
12,357,490.6112
12,374,953.9765
12,396,280.3935
12,408,118.8416
12,442,260.4841
12,461,742.3236
12,474,518.5161
12,499,705.2628
12,509,548.6082
12,533,888.0374
149,109,416.8911
2025
13,460,504.1558
13,476,210.5967
13,503,363.6431
13,522,446.3339
13,545,750.2855
13,558,686.4774
13,595,993.9720
13,617,282.3041
13,631,243.1945
13,658,765.4327
13,669,521.5220
13,696,117.8734
162,935,885.7912
2026
13,864,319.2805
13,880,496.9146
13,908,464.5524
13,928,119.7239
13,952,122.7941
13,965,447.0718
14,003,873.7911
14,025,800.7732
14,040,180.4904
14,068,528.3957
14,079,607.1677
14,107,001.4096
167,823,962.3649
2027
14,280,248.8589
14,296,911.8221
14,325,718.4890
14,345,963.3156
14,370,686.4779
14,384,410.4839
14,423,990.0049
14,446,574.7964
14,461,385.9051
14,490,584.2476
14,501,995.3827
14,530,211.4519
172,858,681.2358
II.2.3 Estimasi Permintaan Potensial Perusahaan

Pasar Potensial merupakan sekelompok konsumen yang memiliki
ketertarikan terhadap produk. Pasar potensial yang dimiliki saat ini adalah
II-45
ketertarikan konsumen untuk membeli lampu PSTI. Untuk mendapatkan nilai pasar
potensial maka digunakan rumus :
(pers II-6)
P.Logit PSTI = 0.44199
Maka didapatlah nilai pasar potensial sebagai berikut :

Tabel II.44 Hasil Peramalan Permintaan Potensial dalam 14 tahun
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Jan
4,381,422.3537
4,469,050.8008
4,558,431.8168
4,649,600.4531
4,742,592.4622
Feb
4,386,534.8332
4,474,265.5299
4,563,750.8405
4,655,025.8573
4,748,126.3744
Mar
4,395,373.2068
4,483,280.6709
4,572,946.2843
4,664,405.2100
4,757,693.3142
Apr
4,401,584.6627
4,489,616.3559
4,579,408.6830
4,670,996.8567
4,764,416.7938
Mei
4,409,170.1478
4,497,353.5508
4,587,300.6218
4,679,046.6343
4,772,627.5669
Jun
4,413,380.9055
4,501,648.5236
4,591,681.4940
4,683,515.1239
4,777,185.4264
Jul
4,425,524.5732
4,514,035.0647
4,604,315.7660
4,696,402.0813
4,790,330.1229
Agus
4,432,453.9700
4,521,103.0494
4,611,525.1104
4,703,755.6126
4,797,830.7249
Sep
4,436,998.2692
4,525,738.2345
4,616,252.9992
4,708,578.0592
4,802,749.6204
Okt
4,445,956.8155
4,534,875.9518
4,625,573.4708
4,718,084.9402
4,812,446.6390
Nov
4,449,457.9451
4,538,447.1040
4,629,216.0461
4,721,800.3670
4,816,236.3743
Des
4,458,115.1133
4,547,277.4156
4,638,222.9639
4,730,987.4231
4,825,607.1716
TOTAL
53,035,972.7959
54,096,692.2518
55,178,626.0968
56,282,198.6188
57,407,842.5911
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Jan
4,837,444.3114
4,982,567.6408
5,132,044.6700
5,286,006.0101
5,444,586.1904
Feb
4,843,088.9019
4,988,381.5690
5,138,033.0160
5,292,174.0065
5,450,939.2267
Mar
4,852,847.1805
4,998,432.5959
5,148,385.5738
5,302,837.1410
5,461,922.2552
Apr
4,859,705.1297
5,005,496.2836
5,155,661.1721
5,310,331.0073
5,469,640.9375
Mei
4,868,080.1183
5,014,122.5218
5,164,546.1975
5,319,482.5834
5,479,067.0609
Jun
4,872,729.1349
5,018,911.0090
5,169,478.3393
5,324,562.6894
5,484,299.5701
Jul
4,886,136.7254
5,032,720.8272
5,183,702.4520
5,339,213.5255
5,499,389.9313
Agus
4,893,787.3394
5,040,600.9595
5,191,818.9883
5,347,573.5580
5,508,000.7647
Sep
4,898,804.6128
5,045,768.7512
5,197,141.8137
5,353,056.0681
5,513,647.7502
Okt
4,908,695.5718
5,055,956.4390
5,207,635.1321
5,363,864.1861
5,524,780.1117
Nov
4,912,561.1018
5,059,937.9349
5,211,736.0729
5,368,088.1551
5,529,130.7998
Des
4,922,119.3150
5,069,782.8945
5,221,876.3813
5,378,532.6728
5,539,888.6530
TOTAL
58,555,999.4430
60,312,679.4263
62,122,059.8090
63,985,721.6033
65,905,293.2514
II-46
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Jan
5,607,923.7761
5,776,161.4894
5,949,446.3341
6,127,929.7241
6,311,767.6158
Feb
5,614,467.4035
5,782,901.4256
5,956,388.4684
6,135,080.1224
6,319,132.5261
Mar
5,625,779.9229
5,794,553.3206
5,968,389.9202
6,147,441.6178
6,331,864.8663
Apr
5,633,730.1656
5,802,742.0706
5,976,824.3327
6,156,129.0627
6,340,812.9346
Mei
5,643,439.0727
5,812,742.2449
5,987,124.5123
6,166,738.2476
6,351,740.3951
Jun
5,648,828.5572
5,818,293.4139
5,992,842.2163
6,172,627.4828
6,357,806.3073
Jul
5,664,371.6292
5,834,302.7781
6,009,331.8615
6,189,611.8173
6,375,300.1718
Agus
5,673,240.7877
5,843,438.0113
6,018,741.1516
6,199,303.3862
6,385,282.4878
Sep
5,679,057.1827
5,849,428.8982
6,024,911.7651
6,205,659.1181
6,391,828.8916
Okt
5,690,523.5150
5,861,239.2205
6,037,076.3971
6,218,188.6890
6,404,734.3497
Nov
5,695,004.7238
5,865,854.8655
6,041,830.5114
6,223,085.4268
6,409,777.9896
Des
5,706,085.3125
5,877,267.8719
6,053,585.9081
6,235,193.4853
6,422,249.2899
TOTAL
67,882,452.0490
69,918,925.6104
72,016,493.3787
74,176,988.1801
76,402,297.8255
II.2.4 Estimasi Permintaan Tersedia

Pasar tersedia merupakan sekelompok konsumen yang memiliki
ketertarikan dan daya beli pada produk yang akan kita jual. Nilai pasar tersedia akan
didapat dengan menggunakan rumus :
(pers II-7)
Sebelum menghitung nilai pasar tersedia maka terlebih dahulu kita menghitung
P.Survival tahun 2013 sebagai berikut :
II-47
Tabel II.45 Tabel Percentile 1

Percent
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
89.52
90
91
92
93
94
94.05
95
96
97
98
99
Percentile
14,281.4
20,907.2
26,159.5
30,693.9
34,768.4
38,516.8
42,019.2
45,328.2
48,480.6
51,503.1
77,577.8
100,213.0
121,922.0
144,025.0
167,727.0
194,686.0
228,111.0
275,000.0
277,365.0
284,222.0
291,729.0
300,050.0
309,423.0
310,000.0
320,212.0
333,020.0
348,950.0
370,428.0
404,926.0
Q
52,505,613.0679
51,975,253.3400
51,444,893.6120
50,914,533.8840
50,384,174.1561
49,853,814.4281
49,323,454.7002
48,793,094.9722
48,262,735.2443
47,732,375.5163
42,428,778.2367
37,125,180.9571
31,821,583.6775
26,517,986.3979
21,214,389.1184
15,910,791.8388
10,607,194.5592
5,558,169.9490
5,303,597.2796
4,773,237.5516
4,242,877.8237
3,712,518.0957
3,182,158.3678
3,155,640.3814
2,651,798.6398
2,121,438.9118
1,591,079.1839
1,060,719.4559
530,359.7280
Revenue
749,853,662,468.2160
1,086,657,016,629.2700
1,345,772,694,443.2200
1,562,765,611,583.5000
1,751,777,120,728.4800
1,920,209,399,565.3100
2,072,532,107,737.3300
2,211,703,167,519.3300
2,339,806,362,282.4500
2,458,365,309,453.1600
3,291,531,272,291.4000
3,720,425,759,255.5000
3,879,751,125,131.6000
3,819,252,990,963.3400
3,558,225,843,653.8600
3,097,608,419,921.6400
2,419,617,758,088.2200
1,528,496,735,977.2700
1,471,032,259,452.9400
1,356,659,123,399.1700
1,237,770,504,621.5500
1,113,941,054,618.2700
984,632,988,625.1840
978,248,518,220.0150
849,137,746,045.7240
706,481,586,419.3650
555,207,081,213.6750
392,920,186,616.6480
214,756,443,203.4470
Gambar II.23 Grafik Permintaan Lampu PSTI
II-48
Tabel II.46 Tabel Percentile 2
II-49
Percent
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
89.52
90
91
92
93
94
94.05
95
96
97
98
99
Percentile
14,281.4
20,907.2
26,159.5
30,693.9
34,768.4
38,516.8
42,019.2
45,328.2
48,480.6
51,503.1
77,577.8
100,213.0
121,922.0
144,025.0
167,727.0
194,686.0
228,111.0
275,000.0
277,365.0
284,222.0
291,729.0
300,050.0
309,423.0
310,000.0
320,212.0
333,020.0
348,950.0
370,428.0
404,926.0
Revenue
749,853,662,468.2160
1,086,657,016,629.2700
1,345,772,694,443.2200
1,562,765,611,583.5000
1,751,777,120,728.4800
1,920,209,399,565.3100
2,072,532,107,737.3300
2,211,703,167,519.3300
2,339,806,362,282.4500
2,458,365,309,453.1600
3,291,531,272,291.4000
3,720,425,759,255.5000
3,879,751,125,131.6000
3,819,252,990,963.3400
3,558,225,843,653.8600
3,097,608,419,921.6400
2,419,617,758,088.2200
1,528,496,735,977.2700
1,471,032,259,452.9400
1,356,659,123,399.1700
1,237,770,504,621.5500
1,113,941,054,618.2700
984,632,988,625.1840
978,248,518,220.0150
849,137,746,045.7240
706,481,586,419.3650
555,207,081,213.6750
392,920,186,616.6480
214,756,443,203.4470
Gambar II.24 Grafik Keuntungan Lampu PSTI
II-50
Tabel II.47 Hasil P.Sursival 2013
MNL B3
Pasar Potensial 2013
P Optimum
P Survival
Pasar Target Perusahaan
Harga Lampu PSTI
0.441993
53,035,972.79588
0.4
0.1048
0.3
Rp. 275.000,00
Setelah mendapatkan nilai P.Survival 2013 maka didapatlah nilai pasar

tersedia sebagai berikut :
Tabel II.48 Hasil Peramalan Pasar Tersedia dalam 14 tahun
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Jan
459,173.0627
468,356.5239
477,723.6544
487,278.1275
497,023.6900
Feb
459,708.8505
468,903.0275
478,281.0881
487,846.7098
497,603.6440
Mar
460,635.1121
469,847.8143
479,244.7706
488,829.6660
498,606.2593
Apr
461,286.0726
470,511.7941
479,922.0300
489,520.4706
499,310.8800
Mei
462,081.0315
471,322.6521
480,749.1052
490,364.0873
500,171.3690
Jun
462,522.3189
471,772.7653
481,208.2206
490,832.3850
500,649.0327
Jul
463,794.9753
473,070.8748
482,532.2923
492,182.9381
502,026.5969
Agus
464,521.1761
473,811.5996
483,287.8316
492,953.5882
502,812.6600
Sep
464,997.4186
474,297.3670
483,783.3143
493,458.9806
503,328.1602
Okt
465,936.2743
475,254.9997
484,760.0997
494,455.3017
504,344.4078
Nov
466,303.1926
475,629.2565
485,141.8416
494,844.6785
504,741.5720
Des
467,210.4639
476,554.6732
486,085.7666
495,807.4819
505,723.6316
TOTAL
5,558,169.9490
5,669,333.3480
5,782,720.0149
5,898,374.4152
6,016,341.9036
II-51
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Jan
506,964.1638
522,173.0888
537,838.2814
553,973.4299
570,592.6328
Feb
507,555.7169
522,782.3884
538,465.8601
554,619.8359
571,258.4310
Mar
508,578.3845
523,835.7361
539,550.8081
555,737.3324
572,409.4523
Apr
509,297.0976
524,576.0105
540,313.2908
556,522.6896
573,218.3702
Mei
510,174.7964
525,480.0403
541,244.4415
557,481.7747
574,206.2280
Jun
510,662.0133
525,981.8737
541,761.3300
558,014.1699
574,754.5949
Jul
512,067.1288
527,429.1427
543,252.0170
559,549.5775
576,336.0648
Agus
512,868.9132
528,254.9806
544,102.6300
560,425.7089
577,238.4801
Sep
513,394.7234
528,796.5651
544,660.4621
561,000.2759
577,830.2842
Okt
514,431.2959
529,864.2348
545,760.1618
562,132.9667
578,996.9557
Nov
514,836.4035
530,281.4956
546,189.9404
562,575.6387
579,452.9078
Des
515,838.1042
531,313.2473
547,252.6448
563,670.2241
580,580.3308
TOTAL
6,136,668.7416
6,320,768.8039
6,510,391.8680
6,705,703.6240
6,906,874.7327
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Jan
587,710.4117
605,341.7241
623,501.9758
642,207.0351
661,473.2461
Feb
588,396.1839
606,048.0694
624,229.5115
642,956.3968
662,245.0887
Mar
589,581.7359
607,269.1880
625,487.2636
644,251.8815
663,579.4380
Apr
590,414.9214
608,127.3690
626,371.1901
645,162.3258
664,517.1955
Mei
591,432.4148
609,175.3873
627,450.6489
646,274.1684
665,662.3934
Jun
591,997.2328
609,757.1498
628,049.8643
646,891.3602
666,298.1010
Jul
593,626.1467
611,434.9311
629,777.9791
648,671.3185
668,131.4580
Agus
594,555.6345
612,392.3036
630,764.0727
649,686.9949
669,177.6047
Sep
595,165.1927
613,020.1485
631,410.7530
650,353.0756
669,863.6678
Okt
596,366.8644
614,257.8703
632,685.6064
651,666.1746
671,216.1598
Nov
596,836.4950
614,741.5899
633,183.8376
652,179.3527
671,744.7333
Des
597,997.7408
615,937.6730
634,415.8032
653,448.2773
673,051.7256
7,327,503.4040
7,547,328.5061
7,773,748.3613
8,006,960.8121
TOTAL 7,114,080.9747
II.2.5 Penentuan Target Penjualan dan Kapasitas Produksi

Target penjualan dan kapasitas produksi akan ditentukan oleh perusahaan
setelah mendapatkan nilai pasar target. Target penjualan akan ditujukan untuk
konsumen yang kemungkinan besar akan membeli produk lampu PSTI. Untuk
mendapatkan nilai dari pasar target maka digunakanlah rumus sebagai berikut :
(pers II-8)
Dimana : P.target perusahaan = 0.3
II-52
Maka didapatlah nilai pasar taget yaitu sebagai berikut :

Tabel II.49 Hasil Peramalan Pasar Target dalam 14 tahun
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Jan
137,751.9188
140,506.9572
143,317.0963
146,183.4382
149,107.1070
Feb
137,912.6552
140,670.9083
143,484.3264
146,354.0130
149,281.0932
Mar
138,190.5336
140,954.3443
143,773.4312
146,648.8998
149,581.8778
Apr
138,385.8218
141,153.5382
143,976.6090
146,856.1412
149,793.2640
Mei
138,624.3094
141,396.7956
144,224.7316
147,109.2262
150,051.4107
Jun
138,756.6957
141,531.8296
144,362.4662
147,249.7155
150,194.7098
Jul
139,138.4926
141,921.2624
144,759.6877
147,654.8814
150,607.9791
Agus
139,356.3528
142,143.4799
144,986.3495
147,886.0765
150,843.7980
Sep
139,499.2256
142,289.2101
145,134.9943
148,037.6942
150,998.4481
Okt
139,780.8823
142,576.4999
145,428.0299
148,336.5905
151,303.3223
Nov
139,890.9578
142,688.7769
145,542.5525
148,453.4035
151,422.4716
Des
140,163.1392
142,966.4019
145,825.7300
148,742.2446
151,717.0895
TOTAL
1,667,450.9847
1,700,800.0044
1,734,816.0045
1,769,512.3246
1,804,902.5711
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Jan
152,089.2492
156,651.9266
161,351.4844
166,192.0290
171,177.7898
Feb
152,266.7151
156,834.7165
161,539.7580
166,385.9508
171,377.5293
Mar
152,573.5154
157,150.7208
161,865.2424
166,721.1997
171,722.8357
Apr
152,789.1293
157,372.8032
162,093.9873
166,956.8069
171,965.5111
Mei
153,052.4389
157,644.0121
162,373.3324
167,244.5324
172,261.8684
Jun
153,198.6040
157,794.5621
162,528.3990
167,404.2510
172,426.3785
Jul
153,620.1386
158,228.7428
162,975.6051
167,864.8732
172,900.8194
Agus
153,860.6739
158,476.4942
163,230.7890
168,127.7127
173,171.5440
Sep
154,018.4170
158,638.9695
163,398.1386
168,300.0828
173,349.0853
Okt
154,329.3888
158,959.2704
163,728.0486
168,639.8900
173,699.0867
Nov
154,450.9210
159,084.4487
163,856.9821
168,772.6916
173,835.8723
Des
154,751.4313
159,393.9742
164,175.7934
169,101.0672
174,174.0992
TOTAL
1,841,000.6225
1,896,230.6412
1,953,117.5604
2,011,711.0872
2,072,062.4198
II-53
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Jan
176,313.1235
181,602.5172
187,050.5927
192,662.1105
198,441.9738
Feb
176,518.8552
181,814.4208
187,268.8534
192,886.9190
198,673.5266
Mar
176,874.5208
182,180.7564
187,646.1791
193,275.5645
199,073.8314
Apr
177,124.4764
182,438.2107
187,911.3570
193,548.6977
199,355.1587
Mei
177,429.7244
182,752.6162
188,235.1947
193,882.2505
199,698.7180
Jun
177,599.1698
182,927.1449
188,414.9593
194,067.4081
199,889.4303
Jul
178,087.8440
183,430.4793
188,933.3937
194,601.3955
200,439.4374
Agus
178,366.6904
183,717.6911
189,229.2218
194,906.0985
200,753.2814
Sep
178,549.5578
183,906.0446
189,423.2259
195,105.9227
200,959.1004
Okt
178,910.0593
184,277.3611
189,805.6819
195,499.8524
201,364.8480
Nov
179,050.9485
184,422.4770
189,955.1513
195,653.8058
201,523.4200
Des
179,399.3222
184,781.3019
190,324.7409
196,034.4832
201,915.5177
2,198,251.0212
2,264,198.5518
2,332,124.5084
2,402,088.2436
TOTAL 2,134,224.2924
Kapasitas produksi ditentukan dengan menjumlahkan nilai dari pasar target,

safety stock, dan cadangan ketika hasil produk gagal. Dalam kasus ini safety stock
bernilai 10.000 dan barang defect bernilai 5.000. jadi nilai dari pasar tersedia
ditambah dengan 15.000.
Tabel II.50 Hasil Peramalan Kapasitas Produksi dalam 14 tahun
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Jan
148,751.9188
151,506.9572
154,317.0963
157,183.4382
160,107.1070
Feb
148,912.6552
151,670.9083
154,484.3264
157,354.0130
160,281.0932
Mar
149,190.5336
151,954.3443
154,773.4312
157,648.8998
160,581.8778
Apr
149,385.8218
152,153.5382
154,976.6090
157,856.1412
160,793.2640
Mei
149,624.3094
152,396.7956
155,224.7316
158,109.2262
161,051.4107
Jun
149,756.6957
152,531.8296
155,362.4662
158,249.7155
161,194.7098
Jul
150,138.4926
152,921.2624
155,759.6877
158,654.8814
161,607.9791
Agus
150,356.3528
153,143.4799
155,986.3495
158,886.0765
161,843.7980
Sep
150,499.2256
153,289.2101
156,134.9943
159,037.6942
161,998.4481
Okt
150,780.8823
153,576.4999
156,428.0299
159,336.5905
162,303.3223
Nov
150,890.9578
153,688.7769
156,542.5525
159,453.4035
162,422.4716
Des
151,163.1392
153,966.4019
156,825.7300
159,742.2446
162,717.0895
TOTAL
1,799,450.9847
1,832,800.0044
1,866,816.0045
1,901,512.3246
1,936,902.5711
II-54
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Jan
163,089.2492
167,651.9266
172,351.4844
177,192.0290
182,177.7898
Feb
163,266.7151
167,834.7165
172,539.7580
177,385.9508
182,377.5293
Mar
163,573.5154
168,150.7208
172,865.2424
177,721.1997
182,722.8357
Apr
163,789.1293
168,372.8032
173,093.9873
177,956.8069
182,965.5111
Mei
164,052.4389
168,644.0121
173,373.3324
178,244.5324
183,261.8684
Jun
164,198.6040
168,794.5621
173,528.3990
178,404.2510
183,426.3785
Jul
164,620.1386
169,228.7428
173,975.6051
178,864.8732
183,900.8194
Agus
164,860.6739
169,476.4942
174,230.7890
179,127.7127
184,171.5440
Sep
165,018.4170
169,638.9695
174,398.1386
179,300.0828
184,349.0853
Okt
165,329.3888
169,959.2704
174,728.0486
179,639.8900
184,699.0867
Nov
165,450.9210
170,084.4487
174,856.9821
179,772.6916
184,835.8723
Des
165,751.4313
170,393.9742
175,175.7934
180,101.0672
185,174.0992
TOTAL
1,973,000.6225
2,028,230.6412
2,085,117.5604
2,143,711.0872
2,204,062.4198
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Jan
187,313.1235
192,602.5172
198,050.5927
203,662.1105
209,441.9738
Feb
187,518.8552
192,814.4208
198,268.8534
203,886.9190
209,673.5266
Mar
187,874.5208
193,180.7564
198,646.1791
204,275.5645
210,073.8314
Apr
188,124.4764
193,438.2107
198,911.3570
204,548.6977
210,355.1587
Mei
188,429.7244
193,752.6162
199,235.1947
204,882.2505
210,698.7180
Jun
188,599.1698
193,927.1449
199,414.9593
205,067.4081
210,889.4303
Jul
189,087.8440
194,430.4793
199,933.3937
205,601.3955
211,439.4374
Agus
189,366.6904
194,717.6911
200,229.2218
205,906.0985
211,753.2814
Sep
189,549.5578
194,906.0446
200,423.2259
206,105.9227
211,959.1004
Okt
189,910.0593
195,277.3611
200,805.6819
206,499.8524
212,364.8480
Nov
190,050.9485
195,422.4770
200,955.1513
206,653.8058
212,523.4200
Des
190,399.3222
195,781.3019
201,324.7409
207,034.4832
212,915.5177
2,330,251.0212
2,396,198.5518
2,464,124.5084
2,534,088.2436
TOTAL 2,266,224.2924
Setelah mendapatkan nilai dari pertumbuhan populasi rumah tangga,

permintaan dari pasar total, pasar potensial, pasar tersedia, ,dan pasar target maka
engan begitu kita dapat membuat grafik hubungan antara kelima variabel tersebut,
sebagai berikut :
II-55
Tabel II.51 Hasil Peramalan dalam 14 tahun

Tahun
Pasar Potensial
Pasar Tersedia
Pasar Target
2013
1,101,296,962.54476 119,992,834.98637
Populasi
Demand
53,035,972.79588
5,558,169.94901
1,667,450.98470
2014
1,123,322,901.7957
122,392,691.6861
54,096,692.2518
5,669,333.3480
1,700,800.0044
2015
1,145,789,359.8316
124,840,545.5198
55,178,626.0968
5,782,720.0149
1,734,816.0045
2016
1,168,705,147.0282
127,337,356.4302
56,282,198.6188
5,898,374.4152
1,769,512.3246
2017
1,192,079,249.9688
129,884,103.5588
57,407,842.5911
6,016,341.9036
1,804,902.5711
2018
1,215,920,834.9681
132,481,785.6300
58,555,999.4430
6,136,668.7416
1,841,000.6225
2019
1,252,398,460.0172
136,456,239.1989
60,312,679.4263
6,320,768.8039
1,896,230.6412
2020
1,289,970,413.8177
140,549,926.3749
62,122,059.8090
6,510,391.8680
1,953,117.5604
2021
1,328,669,526.2322
144,766,424.1661
63,985,721.6033
6,705,703.6240
2,011,711.0872
2022
1,368,529,612.0192
149,109,416.8911
65,905,293.2514
6,906,874.7327
2,072,062.4198
2023
1,409,585,500.3798
153,582,699.3978
67,882,452.0490
7,114,080.9747
2,134,224.2924
2024
1,451,873,065.3912
158,190,180.3798
69,918,925.6104
7,327,503.4040
2,198,251.0212
2025
1,495,429,257.3529
162,935,885.7912
72,016,493.3787
7,547,328.5061
2,264,198.5518
2026
1,540,292,135.0735
167,823,962.3649
74,176,988.1801
2,332,124.5084
2,332,124.5084
2027
1,586,500,899.1257
172,858,681.2358
76,402,297.8255
8,006,960.8121
2,402,088.2436
Gambar II.25 Grafik Hubungan Permintaan dengan Peramalan Perusahaan
II-56

Data Praktikum Perancangan Sistem Teknik Industri

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Judul Asli

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

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Opsi Berbagi

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Format Tersedia

Data Praktikum Perancangan Sistem Teknik Industri

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Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

Sebelum mengambil keputusan perusahaan harus mengumpulkan data yang

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

c = confidence interval (0,5)

Karena populasi sudah diketahui maka dilakukan perhitungan lebih lanjut

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

II.1.2 Hasil Kuesioner

Lajang/duda/janda tanpa anak

Menikah tanpa anak

Keluarga dengan anak yang masih bayi

Keluarga dengan anak yang masih kecil

Keluarga dengan anak remaja

Keluarga dengan anak yang sudah dewasa

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

Keluarga dengan anak yang sudah menikah

Keluarga dengan anak yang sudah keluar dari rumah

Gambar II.1 Diagram Kondisi Keluarga

A2. Komposisi jumlah anggota keluarga yang tinggal di rumah:

Gambar II.2 Diagram Jumlah Anggota Keluarga

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

A3. Komposisi jumlah ruangan dirumah :

Kamar tidur dewasa

Gambar II.3 Diagram Komposisi Jumlah Ruangan di Rumah

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

Gambar II.4 Diagram Pengeluaran Rutin Keluarga

Gambar II.5 Diagram Penggunaan Lampu Meja

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

Kamar tidur dewasa

Gambar II.6 Diagram Komposisi Ruangan di Rumah

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

Gambar II.7 Diagram Jumlah Minat Menggunakan Lampu Meja

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

Gambar II.8 Diagram Penilaian Keseluruhan Lampu QDS 303

Penilaian attribute QDS300:

Daya tarik estetika

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

Gambar II.9 Diagram Penilaian Atribut Lampu QDS 303

B2. Lampu Philips QDS303

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

Gambar II.10 Diagram Penilaian Keseluruhan Lampu QDS 300

Penilaian attribute QDS303:

Daya tarik estetika

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

Gambar II.11 Diagram Penilaian Atribut Lampu QDS 300

B3. Lampu PSTI

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

Gambar II.12 Diagram Penilaian Keseluruhan Lampu PSTI

Penilaian attribute lampu PSTI:

Daya tarik estetika

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

Gambar II.13 Diagram Penilaian Atribut Lampu PSTI

II.2.3 Perhitungan Hasil Kuesioner

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

b. Fleksibilitas peletakan masing-masing lampu

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

c. Fleksibilitas pergerakan masing-masing lampu

Tabel II.18 Rata-Rata dan Standar Deviasi FleksibilitasPergerakan Ketiga Lampu

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

d. Fleksibilitas pengaturan pencahayaan masing-masing lampu

BAB II DATA DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

e. Kesesuaian ukuran masing-masing lampu