#4 - Peramalan (Forecasting) #2
PERAMALAN
( FORECASTING )
#2
Materi #4
Kecenderungan
(trend).
Komponen musiman
(seasonal): rasio
untuk model trend.
Materi #4
#4 - Peramalan (Forecasting) #2
Materi #4
Materi #4
#4 - Peramalan (Forecasting) #2
Pertanyaan:
Sesuai tabel
berikut, berapa nilai
model simple linear
regression yang
dapat digunakan
untuk perkiraan
penjualan pada
minggu selanjutnya?
Minggu
Penjualan
150
157
162
166
177
Materi #4
(x).(y)
150
314
486
664
885
2499
Materi #4
#4 - Peramalan (Forecasting) #2
Materi #4
Penjualan
Hasilnya adalah:
170
Aktual
Peramalan
160
150
140
1
6 Periode (Minggu)
Materi #4
#4 - Peramalan (Forecasting) #2
Penjualan
Yt = 143.5 + 6.3 X
150
149.8
157
156.1
162
162.4
166
168.7
177
175.0
Minggu
181.3
Materi #4
10
Materi #4
#4 - Peramalan (Forecasting) #2
Contoh #4.2
http://taufiqurrachman.weblog.esaunggul.ac.id
11
90
100
95
100
115
100
100
110
125
110
140
110
Materi #4
Jawaban #4.2
http://taufiqurrachman.weblog.esaunggul.ac.id
12
At
Ft
Kum
|Error|
Kum
MAD
Tracking Signal
90
100
10
10
10
10
10.0
10/10 =
95
100
15
15
7.5
15/7.5 =
115
100
+15
15
30
10.0
0/10 =
100
110
10
10
10
40
10.0
10/10 =
125
110
+15
+5
15
55
11.0
+5/11 = +0.5
140
110
+30
+35
30
85
14.2
+35/14.2 = +2.5
MAD =
Tracking
Signal
85
6
=
= 14.2
RSFE
MAD
35
14.2
= 2.5 MAD
Materi #4
#4 - Peramalan (Forecasting) #2
Tugas On-line #1
http://taufiqurrachman.weblog.esaunggul.ac.id
13
Materi #4
14
Materi #4
#4 - Peramalan (Forecasting) #2
15
Materi #4