Pertemuan ke-1
Shantika Martha, M.Si.
KONTRAK KULIAH
SISTEM PENILAIAN
– Absensi 10%
– Latihan/Quiz/ Tugas 20%
– Ujian Tengah Semester (UTS) 30%
– Ujian Akhir Semester (UAS) 40%
Bacaan:
Makridakis, Wheelwright, McGee. Metode dan Aplikasi
Peramalan Jilid 1. Binarupa Aksara. Tangerang
Materi:
- Peramalan
- Moving Average (Single, Double)
- Exponential Smoothing (Single, Double: Brown,Holt)
UTS
- Exponential Smoothing (Triple: Brown, Winter)
- Klasifikasi Pegels
- Dekomposisi
Peramalan
6.700 6.425 6.350 6.600 6.250 6.100 6.250 6.300 6.300 6.325 6.350 6.625 6.675 6.800 6.700
6.625 6.650 6.700 6.675 6.675 6.650 6.875 6.675 6.975 7.100 7.150 7.475 7.300 7.125 7.425
7.375 7.425 7.500 7.400 7.100 6.825 6.975 7.100 7.100 7.400 7.475 7.475 7.425 7.375 7.575
7.350 7.475 7.475 7.250 7.100 7.075 6.775 6.800 7.175 7.175 7.175 7.125 7.075 7.225 6.950
Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Sum of Squared Error (SSE), Mean
Squared Error (MSE), Standard Deviation of Error (SDE)
• Ukuran Relatif:
• Statistik Durbin-Watson:
Ukuran ketepatan peramalan yang sering digunakan:
≥ 50% Buruk