(A ∩ B)
Pr (A|B) =
Pr (B)
P(x < X ≤ z)
Pr (x < X ≤ z|X > x) =
P(X > x)
Fx (z) − Fx (x)
=
1 − Fx (x)
Fx (z) − Fx (x)
=
s(x)
s(x) − s(z)
Pr (x < X ≤ z|X > x) = (3)
s(x)
CLUE :
Harus dicari Pr (30 < X ≤ 40|X > 30) = ...???
s(30) − s(40)
Pr (30 < X ≤ 40|X > 30) =
s(30)
30 40
(1 − 100 ) − (1 − 100 )
= 30
(1 − 100 )
10
100
= 70
100
1
=
7
Jadi, probabilitas seseorang berusia 30 tahun meninggal hingga 10 tahun
kemudian adalah 17
t p0 = s(x), x ≥ 0 (6)
x+t p0 s(x + t)
t px = = (7)
t p0 s(x)
s(x + t)
t qx = 1 − t px = 1 −
s(x)
s(x) − s(x + t)
t qx = (8)
s(x)
Diperoleh,
t|u qx = t px .u qx+t (9)
0, 8 8
= =
0, 9 9
Seftina Diyah Miasary MODEL SURVIVAL (Part 1) August 31, 2020 13 / 26
c.
s(36 + 15)
15 q36 =1−
s(36)
s(51)
=1−
s(36)
1
51
2
1 − 100
=1− 1
36
2
1 − 100
0, 7
=1−
0, 8
1
=
8
Curtate Future Lifetime atau sisa usia diskrit seseorang yang berusia (x)
dinyatakan dengan K (x). Fungsi probabilitas untuk K (x) adalah,
Pr [K (x) = k] = k| qx
−x 3
Diketahui s(x) = e 12 , x ≥0
−5803 −7064
=e 12 −e 12
=0
1
Pr [T (x) > m(x)] =
2
(11)
s(x + m(x)) 1
=
s(x) 2
PENYELESAIAN :
s(y + m(y )) 1
=
s(y ) 2
1
(1+y +m(y )) 1
1
=
(1+y )
2
1+y 1
=
1 + y + m(y ) 2
2 + 2y = 1 + y + m(y )
m(y ) = y + 1
fx (x)
µ(x) = (12)
s(x)
−s 0 (x)
µ(x) = (13)
s(x)
Oleh karena, Z x
Fx (x) = fx (y )dy
0
Sehingga apabila persamaan (14) diintegralkan,
Z Z
− µ(x) = dlog [s(x)]
Z x Z x
− µ(y )dy = dlog [s(y )]dy (15)
0 0
Rx
s(x) = e − 0 µ(y )dy
sehingga diperoleh,
fT (x) (t) = t px .µ(x + t) (17)
PENYELESAIAN :
Clue :
Carilah nilai dari 4|14 q50 = 4 p50 .14 q54
i. 4 p50
ii. 14 q54
= 1 − e −0,02
= 0, 462
Seftina Diyah Miasary MODEL SURVIVAL (Part 1) August 31, 2020 24 / 26
Jadi,