JUMLAH PENDUDUK DI WILAYAH PERENCANAAN

No Tahun Jumlah Penduduk (Jiwa)

1 2010 127707
2 2011 133439
3 2012 139689
4 2013 144380
5 2014 149612
6 2015 154958
7 2016 170645
8 2017 144627
9 2018 148866
10 2019 150156

ARITMATIKA
Jumlah
Tahun Penduduk Po Ka
(Jiwa)
2010 127707
2011 133439
2012 139689
2013 144380
2014 149612
127707 5732
2015 154958
2016 170645
2017 144627
2018 148866
2019 150156

STANDAR DEVIASI DAN CV

n-1 X = Pn X rata-rata X - Xrata-rata
127707 -25794
133439 -20062
139171 -14330
144903 -8598
150635 -2866
9 153501
156367 2866
162099 8598
167831 14330
173563 20062
179295 25794
KOEFISIEN KORELASI ( r )
n X Y X.Y
127707 127707 16309077849
133439 133439 17805966721
139689 139171 19440657819
144380 144903 20921095140
149612 150635 22536803620
10
154958 156367 24230317586
170645 162099 27661383855
144627 167831 24272894037
148866 173563 25837629558
150156 179295 26922220020
1464079 1535010 225938046205

GEOMETRI
Jumlah
Tahun Penduduk n Po
(Jiwa)
2010 127707 0
2011 133439 1
2012 139689 2
2013 144380 3
2014 149612 4
127707
2015 154958 5
2016 170645 6
2017 144627 7
2018 148866 8
2019 150156 9

STANDAR DEVIASI DAN CV

n-1 X = Pn X rata-rata X - Xrata-rata
127707 -9234
129676 -7265
131675 -5266
133705 -3236
135767 -1175
9 136941
137860 918
139985 3044
142143 5202
144335 7394
146560 9619
KOEFISIEN KORELASI ( r )
n X Y X.Y
127707 127707 16309077849
133439 129676 17303822141.9469
139689 131675 18393570158.6704
144380 133705 19304360680.9286
149612 135767 20312312778.2877
10
154958 137860 21362472182.2883
170645 139985 23887771518.4156
144627 142143 20557770216.5726
148866 144335 21486551062.3135
150156 146560 22006878326.5602
1464079 1369413 200924586915

LEAST SQUARE
Tahun Jumlah Pendudukx x²
2010 127707 1 1
2011 133439 2 4
2012 139689 3 9
2013 144380 4 16
2014 149612 5 25
2015 154958 6 36
2016 170645 7 49
2017 144627 8 64
2018 148866 9 81
2019 150156 10 100
jumlah 1464079 55 385
rata-rata 146408 5.5 38.5
SD 7685.84639374
CV 0.05249611799
CV Proyeksi 0.05249611799
Faktor Korelasi 0.64925276566

STANDAR DEVIASI DAN CV

n-1 X = Pn X rata-rata X - Xrata-rata
134984 -11423
137523 -8885
140062 -6346

9 146408
 142600 -3808
145139 -1269
9 146408
147677 1269
150216 3808
152754 6346
155293 8885
157831 11423

KOEFISIEN KORELASI ( r )
n X Y X.Y
127707 134984 17238455092.7455
133439 137523 18350927553.3939
139689 140062 19565053836.6
144380 142600 20588598500.3636
149612 145139 21714479850.1576
10
154958 147677 22883759801.0424
170645 150216 25633562780.4545
144627 152754 22092393078.2545
148866 155293 23117822475.8909
150156 157831 23699328968.2909
1464079 1464079 214884381937

REKAPITULASI
No Tahun Jumlah Penduduk Eksisting Aritmatika
1 2010 127707 127707
2 2011 133439 133439
3 2012 139689 139171
4 2013 144380 144903
5 2014 149612 150635
6 2015 154958 156367
7 2016 170645 162099
8 2017 144627 167831
9 2018 148866 173563
10 2019 150156 179295
Jumlah 1464079 1535010
Rata-Rata 146408 153501
Std.Dev Paling kecil 17354
CV Mendekati 0 0.113
Korelasi Mendekati 1 0.64925
METODE TERPILIH
Pn = Jumlah penduduk (Jiwa)
Aritmatika Geometri
nninin n
Pn = Po x (1 + r rata-
Pn = Po + (r bar x n)
rata)^n
2020 10 185027 148820
2021 11 190759 151114
2022 12 196491 153444
2023 13 202223 155810
2024 14 207955 158212
2025 15 213687 160651
2026 16 219419 163128
2027 17 225151 165643
2028 18 230883 168196
2029 19 236615 170790
2030 20 242347 173423
2031 21 248079 176096
2032 22 253811 178811
2033 23 259543 181568
2034 24 265275 184367
2035 25 271007 187210
2036 26 276739 190096
2037 27 282471 193027
2038 28 288203 196003
2039 29 293935 199025
2040 30 299667 202093
2041 31 305399 205209
2042 32 311131 208373
2043 33 316863 211585
34 322595 214847

Tahun Jumlah Penduduk (Jiwa)

2022 162908
2023 165447
2024 167986
2025 170524
2026 173063
2027 175601
2028 178140
2029 180678
2030 183217
2031 185755
2032 188294
2033 190833
2034 193371
2035 195910
2036 198448
2037 200987
2038 203525
2039 206064
2040 208602
2041 211141
2042 213680
2043 216218
ENCANAAN
Berdasarkan PermenPu no 18 Tahun 2007 STANDAR DEVIASI DAN CV
n-1 X = Pn
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
9
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!

Jumlah

Tn To Pn
Rumus
0 127707 Po = Jumlah Tahun Dasar
1 133439 Ka = P2-P1/T2-T1
2 139171 Pn = Po + Ka (Tn-To)
3 144903
4 150635
0
5 156367
6 162099
7 167831
8 173563
9 179295
153501

(X - Xrata-rata)² SD CV
665330436
402483844 0.113057842
205348900
73925604
8213956
17354 0.113
8213956
73925604
205348900
402483844
665330436
2710605480
 X² Y² r Rumus
16309077849 16309077849
17805966721 17805966721
19513016721 19368567241
20845584400 20996879409
22383750544 22690903225
0.649252766
24011981764 24450638689
29119716025 26276085801
20916969129 28167244561
22161085956 30124114969
22546824336 32146697025
215613973445 238336175490

laju pertumbuhan r Pn

0.0430 127707 0.111111

0.0447 129676
0.0325 131675
0.0350 133705
0.0345 135767
0.0154
0.0919 137860
-0.1799 139985
0.0285 142143
0.0086 144335
146560

(X - Xrata-rata)² SD CV
85272553
52786269
27732472
10472258
1379949
6342 0.046
843537
9265138
27061463
54664305
92521040
 361998985

X² Y² r Rumus
16309077849 16309077849
17805966721 16815838500
19513016721 17338345373
20845584400 17877087739
22383750544 18432570073
0.638872426
24011981764 19005312524
29119716025 19595851403
20916969129 20204739686
22161085956 20832547533
22546824336 21479862816
215613973445 187891233497

x.y y̅ x̅ b a pn
127707 134984
266878 137523
419067 140062
577520 142600
748060 145139
146407.9 5.5 2538.55151515 132445.9
929748 147677
1194515 150216
1157016 152754
1339794 155293
1501560 157831
8261865 1464079
826187 146408

(X - Xrata-rata)² SD CV
130495937
78941986
40276524

7686 0.0525
 14499549
1611061
7686 0.0525
1611061
14499549
40276524
78941986
130495937
531650113

X² Y² r Rumus
16309077849 18220793152
17805966721 18912567194
19513016721 19617229724
20845584400 20334780742
22383750544 21065220247
0.649252766
24011981764 21808548240
29119716025 22564764720
20916969129 23333869688
22161085956 24115863144
22546824336 24910745087
Grafik Penduduk Tiap Metod
215613973445 214884381937 200000

180000

160000

140000

120000

100000
Geometri Least Square
80000
127707 134984
129676 137523 60000
131675 140062 40000
133705 142600
20000
135767 145139
137860 147677 0
2008 2010 2012 2014 201
139985 150216
142143 152754 Jumlah Penduduk Eksisting Aritm
144335 155293 jiij Geometri Least

146560 157831
1369413.13894655 1464079 17354.4918297 11.30578
136941 146408
6342 7686
0.046 0.05250
0.639 0.649253
(Jiwa)
Least Square
Tahun Perencanaan ke-
Pn = a + bN

157831 1
160370 2
162908 3
165447 4
167986 5
170524 6
173063 7
175601 8
178140 9
180678 10
183217 11
185755 12
188294 13
190833 14
193371 15
195910 16
198448 17
200987 18
203525 19
206064 20
208602 21
211141 22
213680 23
216218 24
218757
a b x
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
132446 2539 22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
EVIASI DAN CV
X rata-rata X - Xrata-rata (X - Xrata-rata)² SD CV
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!

#REF!
Jumlah

h Tahun Dasar

Ka (Tn-To)
 225938046205

0.6492527656619
(xi-x)^2 x y xy x^2
130495936.85033 127707 134984 17238455092.7455 16309077849
78941986.489706 133439 137523 18350927553.3939 17805966721
40276523.719238 139689 140062 19565053836.6 19513016721
14499548.538926 144380 142600 20588598500.3636 20845584400
1611060.9487695 149612 145139 21714479850.1576 22383750544
1611060.9487695 154958 147677 22883759801.0424 24011981764
14499548.538926 170645 150216 25633562780.4545 29119716025
40276523.719238 144627 152754 22092393078.2545 20916969129
78941986.489706 148866 155293 23117822475.8909 22161085956
130495936.85033 150156 157831 23699328968.2909 22546824336
531650113 1464079 1464079 214884381937 215613973445
53165011 146408 146408 21488438194 21561397345
Grafik Penduduk Tiap Metode

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Jumlah Penduduk Eksisting Aritmatika

Geometri Least Square
157831
160370
162908
165447
167986
170524
173063
175601
178140
 180678
tahun pn 183217
2020 157831 185755
2021 160370 188294
2022 162908 190833
2023 165447 193371
2024 167986 195910
2025 170524 198448
2026 173063 200987
2027 175601 203525
2028 178140 206064
2029 180678 208602
2030 183217 211141
2031 185755 213680
2032 188294 216218
2033 190833
2034 193371
2035 195910
2036 198448
2037 200987
2038 203525
2039 206064
2040 208602
2041 211141
2042 213680
2043 216218
2044 218757
No Tahun
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

8
9

10
y^2
18220793152
18912567194
19617229724
20334780742
21065220247
21808548240
22564764720
23333869688
24115863144
24910745087
214884381937
21488438194
157831
160370
162908
165447
167986
170524
173063
175601
178140
180678
183217
185755
188294
190833
193371
195910
198448
200987
203525
206064
208602
211141
213680
216218
218757