Nama : Azfi Shafia Narwah Anandhita

NPM : 11211396
Kelas / Prodi : B / Manajemen S1

Latihan 1. Peramalan Penjualan

Data historis penjualan PT. Sapintrong periode Januari 2019 - Desember 2021 sebagai berikut:

Peramalan Penjualan Peramalan Penjualan

Periode Penjualan (Rp) Periode Metode Peramalan Periode Metode Peramalan Trend Analysis Plot for Penjualan Trend Analysis Plot for Penjualan
(Botol) (Botol)
Linear Trend Model Quadratic Trend Model
Januari 2019 3,212,000,000 Januari 2022 4,950,082,540 Trend Analysis Tipe Linear Januari 2022 5905520448 Trend Analysis Tipe Quadratic Yt = 2025473016 + 79043501×t Yt = 2980910924 - 71815116×t + 4077260×t^2

Februari 2019 3,160,000,000 Februari 2022 5,029,126,040 Trend Analysis Tipe Linear Februari 2022 6139499826 Trend Analysis Tipe Quadratic 6000000000
V ariable V ariable
Actual Actual

Maret 2019 2,908,000,000 Maret 2022 5,108,169,541 Trend Analysis Tipe Linear Maret 2022 6381633723 Trend Analysis Tipe Quadratic Fits 8000000000 Fits
Forecas ts
Forecasts
5000000000

April 2019 2,704,000,000 April 2022 5,187,213,042 Trend Analysis Tipe Linear April 2022 6631922141 Trend Analysis Tipe Quadratic Accuracy Measures Accuracy Measures

Penjualan
Penjualan
MAPE 8,98845E+00
MAPE 1,50927E+01
6000000000
Mei 2019 2,780,000,000 Mei 2022 5,266,256,542 Trend Analysis Tipe Linear Mei 2022 6890365078 Trend Analysis Tipe Quadratic 4000000000
MAD 4,45730E+08 MAD
MSD
2,91853E+08
1,19171E+17
MSD 2,73695E+17

Juni 2019 2,844,000,000 Juni 2022 5,345,300,043 Trend Analysis Tipe Linear Juni 2022 7156962535 Trend Analysis Tipe Quadratic
4000000000
3000000000
Juli 2019 2,936,000,000 Juli 2022 5,424,343,544 Trend Analysis Tipe Linear Juli 2022 7431714512 Trend Analysis Tipe Quadratic
Agustus 2019 2,996,000,000 Agustus 2022 5,503,387,044 Trend Analysis Tipe Linear Agustus 2022 7714621009 Trend Analysis Tipe Quadratic 2000000000
2000000000

September 2019 2,684,000,000 September 2022 5,582,430,545 Trend Analysis Tipe Linear September 2022 8005682025 Trend Analysis Tipe Quadratic 1 9 18 27 36 45 1 9 18 27 36 45

Index Index
Oktober 2019 2,240,000,000 Oktober 2022 5,661,474,045 Trend Analysis Tipe Linear Oktober 2022 8304897562 Trend Analysis Tipe Quadratic
November 2019 2,264,000,000 November 2022 5,740,517,546 Trend Analysis Tipe Linear November 2022 8612267618 Trend Analysis Tipe Quadratic Trend Analysis Plot for Penjualan Smoothing Plot for Penjualan
Growth Curve Model Double Exponential Method
Desember 2019 2,076,000,000 Desember 2022 5,819,561,047 Trend Analysis Tipe Linear Desember 2022 8927792194 Trend Analysis Tipe Quadratic Yt = 2241688606 × (1,02204^t) 8000000000
V ariable

Januari 2020 2,224,000,000 TOTAL 64,617,861,519 TOTAL 88,102,878,671 V ariable Actual

Actual Fits
6000000000
Februari 2020 2,384,000,000 MAPE (%) 1.51 MAPE (%) 8.99 Fits Forecas ts
95,0% PI
Forecasts
6000000000
Maret 2020 2,456,000,000 5000000000 Accuracy Measures Sm oothing Constants

Penjualan
Penjualan
MAPE 1,37727E+01 α (level) 0,835819

April 2020 2,588,000,000 Periode Peramalan Penjualan Metode Peramalan Periode Peramalan Penjualan Metode Peramalan MAD 4,19582E+08 γ (trend) 0,248113
(Botol) (Botol) 4000000000
MSD 2,26089E+17
Accuracy Measures
4000000000
Mei 2020 2,824,000,000 Januari 2022 5,021,852,922 Trend Analysis Tipe Exponential Growth Januari 2022 4,923,521,049 Time Series Tipe Double Exponential Smoothing MAPE

MAD
5,38740E+00

1,73394E+08
3000000000 MSD 4,39225E+16
Juni 2020 2,852,000,000 Februari 2022 5,132,527,103 Trend Analysis Tipe Exponential Growth Februari 2022 4,938,204,491 Time Series Tipe Double Exponential Smoothing
Juli 2020 2,948,000,000 Maret 2022 5,245,640,379 Trend Analysis Tipe Exponential Growth Maret 2022 4,952,887,932 Time Series Tipe Double Exponential Smoothing 2000000000
2000000000

1 9 18 27 36 45 1 9 18 27 36 45
Agustus 2020 3,064,000,000 April 2022 5,361,246,503 Trend Analysis Tipe Exponential Growth April 2022 4,967,571,373 Time Series Tipe Double Exponential Smoothing
Index Index
September 2020 3,272,000,000 Mei 2022 5,479,400,415 Trend Analysis Tipe Exponential Growth Mei 2022 4,982,254,814 Time Series Tipe Double Exponential Smoothing
Oktober 2020 3,788,000,000 Juni 2022 5,600,158,263 Trend Analysis Tipe Exponential Growth Juni 2022 4,996,938,256 Time Series Tipe Double Exponential Smoothing
November 2020 3,700,000,000 Juli 2022 5,723,577,435 Trend Analysis Tipe Exponential Growth Juli 2022 5,011,621,697 Time Series Tipe Double Exponential Smoothing
Desember 2020 4,008,000,000 Agustus 2022 5,849,716,583 Trend Analysis Tipe Exponential Growth Agustus 2022 5,026,305,138 Time Series Tipe Double Exponential Smoothing
Januari 2021 4,188,000,000 September 2022 5,978,635,650 Trend Analysis Tipe Exponential Growth September 2022 5,040,988,579 Time Series Tipe Double Exponential Smoothing
Februari 2021 4,188,000,000 Oktober 2022 6,110,395,901 Trend Analysis Tipe Exponential Growth Oktober 2022 5,055,672,021 Time Series Tipe Double Exponential Smoothing
Maret 2021 4,348,000,000 November 2022 6,245,059,953 Trend Analysis Tipe Exponential Growth November 2022 5,070,355,462 Time Series Tipe Double Exponential Smoothing
April 2021 4,728,000,000 Desember 2022 6,382,691,801 Trend Analysis Tipe Exponential Growth Desember 2022 5,085,038,903 Time Series Tipe Double Exponential Smoothing
Mei 2021 4,732,000,000 TOTAL 68,130,902,908 TOTAL 60,051,359,715
Juni 2021 4,828,000,000 MAPE (%) 1.38 MAPE (%) 5.39
Juli 2021 4,788,000,000
Agustus 2021 4,940,000,000 Kesimpulan:
September 2021 5,152,000,000
Oktober 2021 4,776,000,000
November 2021 5,120,000,000 PT. Sapintrong memutuskan mengambil data hasil olahan proyeksi pendapatan dari penjualan produk periode 2022 sebesar Rp 68.130.902.908,- dengan estimasi error margin di 1,38%
Desember 2021 4,860,000,000

Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast

4950082540 5905520448 5021852922 4923521049
5029126040 6139499826 5132527103 4938204491
5108169541 6381633723 5245640379 4952887932
5187213042 6631922141 5361246503 4967571373
5266256542 6890365078 5479400415 4982254814
5345300043 7156962535 5600158263 4996938256
5424343544 7431714512 5723577435 5011621697
5503387044 7714621009 5849716583 5026305138
5582430545 8005682025 5978635650 5040988579
5661474045 8304897562 6110395901 5055672021
5740517546 8612267618 6245059953 5070355462
5819561047 8927792194 6382691801 5085038903