TINJAUAN
EKONOMI, KEUANGAN, & FISKAL
Mendorong Pemulihan Ekonomi dan
Memperkuat Reformasi Struktural
EDISI II 2021
Ulasan Khusus:
Meneropong Arah Kebijakan Fiskal Tahun 2022
Pengarah:
Kepala Badan Kebijakan Fiskal
Penanggung Jawab:
Kepala Pusat Kebijakan Ekonomi Makro
Dewan Redaksi:
Sekretaris Badan, Kepala Pusat Kebijakan Ekonomi Makro,
Kepala Pusat Kebijakan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja
Negara, Kepala Pusat Kebijakan Sektor Keuangan, Staf Khusus
Bidang Perumusan Kebijakan Fiskal Sektoral
Editor:
Endang Larasati, Rahadian Zulfadin, Thomas N.P.D Keraf,
Wahyu Utomo, Widiyanto, Yoopi Abimanyu
Tim Redaksi:
Achmad Budi S., Ali Moechtar, Ahmad Wira Kusuma, Asep
Nurwanda, Dedy Sunaryo, Dwi Anggi Novianti, Johan
Zulkarnain Kasim, Putri Rizki Yulianti, Raditiyo Harya
Pamungkas, Risyaf Fahreza, Roni Parasian, Subkhan, Yusuf
Munandar
Desain Grafis:
Angga Ekoprasetyo Wirastomo, Abraham Putra Agung, Cessa
Seftari, Fatima Medina Septiyanti, Puguh Fajar Triyanto
Kontributor:
Andi Yoga Trihartanto, Bakhtiar Rifai, Cipto Adhi Setiawan,
Ika Kartika Sari, Indah Kurnia Junirda E., Innes Clara Shinta,
Lalu Muhammad Azmi P., Masyitha Mutiara Ramadhan,
Muhammad Fajar Nugraha, Muhammad Firmansyah
Arviandri, Nurul Putri Rakhmawati, Restu Rinayanti, Rina
Karlina, Rizki Saputri, Syariful Anam, Wignyo Parasian, Yayu
Andini, Zerah Aprial Pasimbong
Sekretariat:
Ahmad Marzuki, Ardhian Dharma Yudha Handoyo, Prabu
Kusuma Nusa Putra, Rizki Zul Arfandi, Suhendi Ery Saputro
Alamat Redaksi:
Gedung R.M. Notohamiprodjo, Jalan Dr. Wahidin Raya Nomor
1 Jakarta 10710
ANALISIS PERKEMBANGAN
EKONOMI MAKRO
Grafik 1. (a) Kasus Harian (rata-rata 7 hari); (b) Kematian Harian (rata-rata 7 hari)
828.688
744.810 14.773
14.019
7.287
7.920
369.792
Feb-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jul-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jan-20
Nov-20
Apr-21
May-21
Jan-21
Feb-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Apr-20
May-20
Jul-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
May-21
Jan-20
Mar-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
-
50. 000
100. 000
150. 000
200. 000
250. 000
300. 000
350. 000
400. 000
100
20
40
60
80
100
20
40
60
80
0
02-Ma r 01-Apr
12
Jan-20 Jan-20 02-Apr 01-Ma y
Feb-20 Feb-20 02-Ma y 01-Jun
Mar-20 Mar-20 02-Jun 01-Jul
Meksiko
Apr-20 Apr-20 02-Jul
Filipina
01-Aug
May-20 May-20 02-Aug 01-Sep
Jun-20 Jun-20 02-Sep
01-Oct
02-Oct
46.204
Jul-20 Jul-20 01-Nov
02-Nov
Aug-20 Aug-20 01-Dec
INDIA
Argentina
02-Dec
BRAZIL
92.943
Sep-20 Sep-20 01-Ja n
Indonesia
02-Ja n
Oct-20 Oct-20 01-Feb
02-Feb
Nov-20 Nov-20 02-Ma r 01-Ma r
AMERIKA
Dec-20 Dec-20 01-Apr
Brazil
02-Apr
Jan-21 Jan-21 02-Ma y 01-Ma y
Feb-21 Feb-21 02-Jun 01-Jun
Malaysia
392.322
50.138
77.129 70.381
Mar-21 Mar-21
Apr-21 Apr-21 01-Ma r 04-Ma r
Kanada
May-21 May-21 01-Apr 04-Apr
01-Ma y 04-Ma y
India
Jun-21 Jun-21
6.970
01-Jun 04-Jun
AS
01-Jul 04-Jul
01-Aug 04-Aug
01-Sep 04-Sep
100
20
40
60
80
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
01-Oct 04-Oct
Jan-20 Jan-20 04-Nov
01-Nov
Feb-20 Feb-20 04-Dec
CHILE
01-Dec
Mar-20
Italia
Mar-20 04-Ja n
01-Ja n
MALAYSIA
Jerman
Apr-20 Apr-20 04-Feb
01-Feb
4.164
Singapura
May-20 May-20 04-Ma r
4.754
01-Ma r
Sep-20
5.351
7.736
Sep-20
Vietnam
Oct-20 Oct-20 01-Ma r
Inggris
09-Ma r
EROPA
09-Apr
Dec-20 Dec-20 01-Ma y
ASIA PASIFIK
09-Ma y
Jan-21 Jan-21 01-Jun 09-Jun
Jepang
Feb-21 Feb-21 01-Jul 09-Jul
Mar-21 Mar-21 01-Aug
09-Aug
Apr-21 01-Sep
Apr-21 09-Sep
11.403
May-21 01-Oct
May-21 09-Oct
Spanyol
Jun-21 01-Nov
Thailand
Jun-21 09-Nov
01-Dec
09-Dec
01-Ja n
09-Ja n
THAILAND
01-Feb
KOLOMBIA
09-Feb
834
01-Ma r
09-Ma r
Grafik 2. Tren Kasus Harian di Berbagai Negara Berkembang (Rata-rata 7 hari)
01-Apr
100
100
20
40
60
80
20
40
60
80
0
0
09-Apr
Jan-20 Jan-20 01-Ma y
09-Ma y
17.857 18.996
Sumber: Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, data per 27 Juni 2021, diolah
09-Jun
Mar-20 Mar-20 13-Ma r
3.759
30.507
Taiwan
Jun-20 Jun-20 06-Ma y 13-Jun
Jul-20 Jul-20 06-Jun 13-Jul
Aug-20 Aug-20 06-Jul 13-Aug
06-Aug 13-Sep
12.584
Sep-20 Sep-20
06-Sep
Afrika Selatan
Oct-20 Oct-20 13-Oct
Australia
06-Oct
13-Nov
15.051
Nov-20 Nov-20
AFRIKA
06-Nov
Dec-20 Dec-20 13-Dec
06-Dec
Jan-21 Jan-21 13-Ja n
06-Ja n
11.643
ARGENTINA
Nigeria
Mar-21 Mar-21 13-Ma r
06-Ma r
AFRIKA SELATAN
Selandia Baru
May-21 May-21 13-Ma y
06-Ma y
13-Jun
33.171
Grafik 3. Dinamika Kebijakan Pembatasan Sosial Berbagai Negara (Indeks 100 = Tingkat Restriksi Paling Ketat)
15.083
Perkembangan Covid-19 Domestik
180,000 500
250,000 20,000
160,000
18,000
400
200,000 16,000
140,000
14,000
120,000 300
150,000 12,000
100,000 200
10,000
80,000
100,000 8,000
100
60,000
6,000
40,000 0
50,000 4,000
May-21
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
2,000
0 -
May-20
Jul-20
May-21
Mar-20
Apr-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Jun-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Kematian Harian (RHS)
Kasus Suspek
Jumlah Kasus Aktif Kasus Harian 7DMA - RHS Kematian Harian (7DMA - RHS)
50 120000
93.5
Rata-rata positive rate satu bulan
45
Tes Harian (RHS) 100000
40 69.4
35
27.2
80000
26.5
30
19.3
25 60000
16.7
16.2
16.0
14.8
14.2
13.8
20
13.7
12.3
12.0
11.6
11.3
40000
15 15.0
10
20000
5
05-Apr-21
13-Apr-21
20-Apr-21
27-Apr-21
04-May-21
11-May-21
18-May-21
25-May-21
01-Jun-21
08-Jun-21
15-Jun-21
22-Jun-21
06-Mar-21
13-Mar-21
21-Mar-21
28-Mar-21
0 0
May-20
Jul-20
May-21
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Jun-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Grafik 7. (a) Jumlah Total Dosis Vaksinasi COVID-19 yang Diberikan di Beberapa Negara (Dalam juta); (b) Dosis
Vaksinasi Covid-19 per 100 Orang di Beberapa Negara
0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
5,000,000 15,000,000
4,000,000 12,000,000
3,000,000 9,000,000
1,288,208 6,438,072
2,000,000 6,000,000
765,846
1,000,000 3,000,000
354,805
- -
11-Feb
28-Feb
10-Jun
27-Jun
11-Feb
28-Feb
10-Jun
27-Jun
20-Apr
20-Apr
25-Jan
17-Mar
03-Apr
07-May
24-May
25-Jan
17-Mar
03-Apr
07-May
24-May
10
0
03-Feb 21-Feb 11-Mar 29-Mar 16-Apr 04-May 22-May 09-Jun 27-Jun
Sumber: Kementerian Kesehatan, data per 27 Juni 2021
1,400,000
1,174,139
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000 705,959
600,000
400,000
200,000 58,952
0
25-Jan 11-Feb 28-Feb 17-Mar 03-Apr 20-Apr 07-May 24-May 10-Jun 27-Jun
Sumber: Kementerian Kesehatan, diolah. Keterangan: Vaksinasi Rata-Rata 7 Hari Vaksinasi per Hari.
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Mar
Nov
Nov
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jun-20
Aug-20
Feb-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Apr-20
May-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jan-20
Mar-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
2019 2020 2021
Sumber: Bloomberg
-5
-10
-10
-15
-20
-20
-30 -25
Q1-2020
Q2-2020
Q3-2020
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Q1-2020
Q2-2020
Q3-2020
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Sumber: Bloomberg
20%
-10%
-40%
-70%
Machinery, Textiles Misc. Base Metals Chemicals Or Plastics, Vehicles, Opticals Stone, Plaster, Footwear,
Electrical (10,8%) Manufactured (6,8%) Allied Rubber (4,6%) Aircraft, (3,3%) Cement, etc Headgear,
Equipment Articles (7,7%) Industries Vessels, (2,2%) Umbrellas, etc
(44,5%) (5,3%) Transport Eq. (2,0%)
(4,2%)
80%
55.3%
60% 47.3%
31.2% 35.9% 32.2%
40% 19.2% 23.6% 26.1%
20% 6.0% 9.8%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
Machiney, Mineral Products of Base Metals Opticals Vehicle, Plastics, Vegetable Live Animals Pearls,
Electrical Product Chemicals (5,7%) (5,1%) Aircraft, Rubber Products & Products Precious
Equipment (22,1%) (7,3%) Vessels (4,2%) (3,5%) (2,5%) Stone and
(36,1%) &Transport Metals (1,6%)
Eq (4,2%)
8 0,2 1,5
0,4 0,5
5.8 5.6 6.0
6
OECD WB IMF
4.4 4.3 4.4
4
0
2020 2021F 2022F
-2
Kenaikan dibandingkan proyeksi sebelumnya
-4 -3.5
Sumber: World Bank, OECD, IMF
150
22.8 16.3
100 15.9 23.03
25.7
50 15.7
Rp Triliun
27.10 47.66 53.31 137.52 97.17 107.29 170.34 57.10 168.61 7.30
87.76
0
(20.6) (22.7) (87.95)
-50 (39.1) (49.9)
-100
-150 (47.8)
-200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
SBN Saham Total
Sumber: Bloomberg, diolah; Ket.: s.d 18 Juni 2021
(60.00)
(80.00)
(100.00)
(120.00) (5.59)
(126.85)
(140.00)
Nov-20
Feb-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
May-21
Mar-20
Mar-21
Jan-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
Sumber: Bloomberg, diolah; Ket: s.d 18 Juni 2021
5 5.34
4
3
2
1 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y
0
May-20
May-20
Jul-20
Jul-20
May-21
Oct-20
Jan-20
Jan-20
Mar-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Apr-21
Feb-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Feb-21
Jun-21
1200 45
978.55 40
1000
35
800 30
23.01 25
600
20
400 15
10
200
5
0 0
2016
2017
2018
2019
Feb-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Mar-20
Apr-20
Dec-20
May-20
Jul-20
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jan-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
3.10 4.49
0.97
Reksadana
Perseorangan
14.07 Lainnya
34.17
Bank Indonesia
Asuransi dan Dana Pensiun
14.20
Asing
23.01 Bank
120.0 3.0
97.2
100.0 2.5
2.4 2.4 2.4
2.383.8 2.3
78.2 78.5
80.0 2.0 2.0
1.8 1.9
1.8
60.8 1.7
60.0 55.3 53.0 1.5
49.7 1.4
41.0 43.0
40.1
40.0 35.0 34.0 32.6 34.0 1.0
30.0 28.0
24.5 24.0
17.0 18.9
20.0 15.6 15.0 0.5
10.0 9.1
4.8 5.8
0.0 0.0
5 Januari 19 Januari 2 Februari 15 Februari 2 Maret 16 Maret 30 Maret 13-Apr-21 27-Apr-21 25 Mei 8 Juni 2021
2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021
Incoming Bid Awarded Bid Awarded Bid (GSO) Bid to Cover Ratio (RHS)
Perkembangan Perbankan
Apr-20
May-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Nov-20
Feb-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Sumber: CEIC, diolah
Grafik 24. (a) Pertumbuhan Kredit dan DPK Perbankan (b) Pertumbuhan Kredit berdasarkan Jenis (dalam %, yoy)
15 20
KMK KI KK
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Kredit DPK
-5 -5
Nov-19
Nov-20
May-19
May-20
Jul-19
Sep-19
Jul-20
Sep-20
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Nov-19
Nov-20
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
20 85
15
80
10
75
5
0 70
Nov-19
Nov-20
Feb-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jun-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Rp Triliun
03-Feb-18
03-Mar-18
03-Apr-18
03-May-18
03-Jun-18
03-Jul-18
03-Aug-18
03-Sep-18
Deposit Facility
03-Jan-19
03-Feb-20
Grafik 26. Perkembangan Operasi Moneter Bank Indonesia (dalam %)
03-Mar-20
L/F & Term Repo
03-Apr-20
03-May-20
03-Jun-20
Total Likuiditas Perbankan
03-Jul-20
03-Aug-20
03-Sep-20
03-Oct-20
03-Nov-20
03-Dec-20
03-Jan-21
03-Feb-21
03-Mar-21
03-Apr-21
03-May-21
03-Jun-21
0
200
400
600
800
-200
1,000
Grafik 27. Perkembangan Risiko Kredit: Non-Performing Loan (NPL) (dalam %)
4.5 NPL Kredit NPL KMK
NPL KI NPL KK
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
Nov-…
Nov-…
May…
May…
Feb-…
Apr-…
Aug-…
Sep-…
Oct-…
Dec-…
Feb-…
Apr-…
Aug-…
Sep-…
Oct-…
Dec-…
Feb-…
Mar…
Mar…
Mar…
Jun-…
Jun-…
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Sumber: CEIC, diolah
Grafik 28. (a) Perkembangan CAR Perbankan, (b) Perkembangan NIM, ROA dan BOPO Perbankan (dalam %)
25 6
CAR CAR- ATMR
86.44 90
24
24.04 5
23 80
4 ROA 4.62
22 22.24 NIM
70
3 BOPO- RHS
21
1.87 60
20 2
19 1 50
Nov-19
Nov-20
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Nov-19
Nov-20
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
17,000 104.00
16,500 102.00
16,000 100.00
15,500 98.00
15,000 96.00
21-Jun; 14,453
14,500 94.00
14,000 92.00
13,500 90.00
21-Jun; 91.89
13,000 88.00
Nov-19
Nov-20
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
May-21
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
1.00 0.90
0.80
0.58
0.60
0.44
0.36
0.40 0.26
0.20
0.00
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 Mei-21
-0.20
6
Umum Core
5 Administered Price Volatile Food
4 3.66
3
1.68
2
1 1.37
0 0.93
Jul
Feb
Mar
Mei
Jun
Sep
Okt
Feb
Mar
Mei
Apr
Ags
Des
Apr
Jan
Nov
Jan
-1
2020 2021
-2
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik
20% 2000.0
10
0% 1000.0
-20% 5 0.0
-40% Miliar USD
-1000.0
-60% 0
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
2020-J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
2021-J
F
M
A
M
-2000.0
M
J
J
O
N
D
A
S
J
J
O
N
D
2020-J
F
A
M
A
S
2021-J
F
M
A
M
Eksp USD Imp USD
Ekspor yoy Impor yoy MIGAS NONMIGAS TOTAL
Grafik 33. (a) Komponen Pertumbuhan Ekspor, (b) Pertumbuhan Ekspor Sektoral (yoy)
80.0% 120%
67.0% Migas 95.4%
100%
58.8% 58.3% Volume
80%
Non Migas - Agri.
60.0%
Harga 67.0%
60% Non Migas - Manuf.
Nilai 54.0%
35.4% 40% Non Migas - Tambang dll
40.0% 30.6% 30.3%
20%
0%
20.0% 0.7%
-20%
-40%
0.0%
TOTAL Non Migas TOTAL Non Migas -60%
Migas Migas -80%
Dec
May
Dec
May
Jun
Aug
Mar
Apr
Jun
Aug
Jul
Sep
Oct
Nov
2020-Jan
Feb
Jul
Sep
Oct
Nov
2021-Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
68.7% 0%
70.0% 56.4%
22.7% 21.2% 34.5% -20%
-40%
0.0%
TOTAL Non Migas TOTAL Non Migas -60%
Migas Migas
Oct
Oct
Sep
Feb
Sep
Feb
Jul
Aug
Jun
Nov
Dec
2020-Jan
Mar
Apr
May
Jul
Aug
Jun
Nov
Dec
2021-Jan
Mar
Apr
May
15
10 9.2
5 5.4 4.3 4.1
2.4 2.1
0 0.0 -0.2
-2.0
-5 -4.3 -4.4
-8.5
-10
-15
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2019 2020 2021
CURRENT ACCOUNT CAPITAL ACCOUNT FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
0
7.07%
6.26%
10
9.77
0
4.99% Juta Orang
8.75 8
Juta Orang
0
6.88 6
0 Juta Orang
0 4
A. PENDAPATAN NEGARA 1699.9 664.6 39.1 (9.0) 1,743.6 726.4 41.7 9.3
1. Penerimaan Pajak 1,198.8 444.6 37.1 (10.8) 1,229.6 459.6 37.4 3.4
2. Kepabeanan & Cukai 205.7 81.7 39.7 12.4 215.0 99.3 46.2 21.6
3. Pendapatan Negara Bukan Pajak 294.1 137.0 46.6 (13.6) 298.2 167.6 56.2 22.4
B. BELANJA NEGARA 2,739.2 843.9 30.8 (1.4) 2,750.0 945.7 34.4 12.1
I. Belanja Pemerintah Pusat 1,975.2 537.3 27.2 1.2 1,954.5 647.6 33.1 20.53
1. Belanja K/L 836.4 270.4 32.3 (6.2) 1,032.0 359.8 34.9 33.07
2. Belanja Non K/L 1,138.9 267.0 23.4 10.1 922.6 287.9 31.2 7.82
II. Transfer ke Daerah dan Dana Desa 763.9 306.6 40.1 (5.7) 795.5 298.0 37.5 (2.8)
1. Transfer ke Daerah 692.7 277.7 40.1 (8.8) 723.5 275.7 38.1 (0.7)
2. Dana Desa 71.2 28.9 40.6 41.3 72.0 22.3 31.0 (22.6)
C. KESEIMBANGAN PRIMER (700.4) (33.7) 4.8 (2,691.4) (633.1) (67.6) 10.7 100.6
D. SUPLUS/(DEFISIT) (1,039.2) (179.4) 17.3 42.6 (1,006.4) (219.3) 21.8 22.2
% thd PDB (6.34) (1.16) (5.70) (1.32)
E. PEMBIAYAAN 1,039.2 357.9 34.4 123.8 1,006.4 309.3 30.7 (13.6)
SiLPA/(SiKPA) 178.5 - 90.0
ULASAN KHUSUS:
MENEROPONG ARAH
KEBIJAKAN FISKAL TAHUN 2022
80
Dr W
10710 +62 21 3441484
fiskal.kemenkeu.go.id