Karakteristik Perjalanan
dan Kondisi Sosek
I Bangkitan
II
Pemilihan Moda III Distribusi
IV
Pembebanan
Characteristics Influencing
Mode Choice
• Availability of parking
• Income
• Availability of transit
• Auto ownership
• Type of trip
– Work trip more likely transit
– Special trip – trip to airport or baseball stadium served by
transit
– Shopping, recreational trips by auto
• Stage in life
– Old and young are more likely to be transit dependent
Characteristics Influencing
Mode Choice
• Cost
– Parking costs, gas prices, maintenance?
– Transit fare
• Safety
• Time
– Transit usually more time consuming (not in NYC or DC)
• Image
– In some areas perception is that only poor ride transit
– In others (NY) everyone rides transit
Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Pemilihan Moda
- Category analysis
Trip-end Modal Split
(Type II)
Karakteristik Umum:
1. banyak memakai variabel zona atau rumah-tangga, misalnya
pemilikan kendaraan, kerapatan pemukiman.
2. ukuran karakteristiksistem transport biasanya digeneralisasi untuk
setiap tujuan, misalnya dengan menggunakan indeks daya hubung
3. pre-distribusi
dimana :
Aj = daya tarik zona j (dengan angkutan umum atau mobil)
Fij = friksi waktu tempuh dari i ke j = (1/waktu tempuh door-to-
door)
n = jumlah zona.
Model Kombinasi Distribusi – Pemilihan Moda
(Type III)
1 1
1 T ij exp(− β C ) ij
P =
ij = 1 2
Tij exp(− β C ij ) + exp(− β C ij )
Penyertaan variable dlm P/M
Variable (Attribute) Trip-end model Trip-interchange model
Chicago Pittsburgh Eric Puget Southeastern Washington Twin San Buffalo London
Sound Wisconsin DC Cities Juan
Karakteristik Perjalanan:
Jumlah maksud perjalan 2 3 1 4 7 2 3 2 2 3
trip length x
waktu x x
Ke arah pusat kota x x x
Karakteristik Pengendara:
Pemilikan kendaraan x x x x z x
Kerapatan pemukiman x x x
Pendapatan x x x x
Jumlah pekerja se rumah x
Jalark ke pusat kota x
Kerapatan pekerja x
10 20 30 20 30 40
à Ongkos Bis
à Ongkos mobil
frekuensi
10 20 30
5 10 20
à Ongkos
à Ongkos (Bis - Mobil)
Cummulative Distribution
Prob ( mobil )
90%
50%
10%
5 10 15
Ongkos (Bis – Mobil)
Utility and Disutility
Functions
• Utility function: measures satisfaction derived from
choices
• Disutility function: represents generalized costs of
each choice
• Usually expressed as the linear weighted sum of
the independent variables of their transformation
U = a0 + a1X1 + a2X2 + ….. + arXr
p(K) = ____eUk__
∑ eUk
Diminta :
a) modal split
b) pendapatan angkutan umum
c) Seperti a) tetapi dengan model /struktur berhirarki
CONTOH KASUS
TRIP INTERCHANGE MODAL SPLIT
U
W
A V
B C
D
DATA SET
O/D x1 x2 x3 x4 x1 x2 x3 % mobil
A–U
B–U jalan raya Angkutan
C–U umum
D–U
A–V x1 = waktu perjalanan selama dalam kendaraan
- V x2 = waktu lain sat di luar kendaraan
- V x3 = biaya operasi kendaraan
D–V x4 = ongkos parkir
A-W
W
D–W
MODEL BIASA :
% mobil = f ( ΔC )
ΔC = Cmobil - Cumum
Cmobil = x1 + x2 + x3 + x4
Cumum = x1 + x2 + x3
MODEL PERILAKU :
C = a + bx1 + cx2 + dx3 + ex4
Tugas M/S
Dalam memilih moda, dari 2 moda yang berkompetisi, diberikan fungsi biayanya:
Mobil : Cm = C1
Bus : Cb = C2 + δ ; dimana δ adalah modal penalti untuk bus
(ketidaknyamanan)
Berdasarkan fungsi splitting logit, peluang terpilihnya moda i (Pi) adalah sbb :
P i = exp (- λ* Ci) / Σ exp ( - λ * Ci)
Berikut data binary peluang dan biaya dari 5 pasang asal-tujuan, yang diperoleh dari
survey:
Contoh : 2 moda
Ongkos : - Mobil : C1
- publik : C2 + δ
exp(− βC1 )
P1 =
exp(− βC1 ) + exp{− β (C2 + δ ) }
1
P1 =
1 + exp{− β (C2 + δ − C1 )}
exp{− β (C2 + δ − C1 )}
P2 = 1 − P1 =
1 + exp{− β (C2 + δ − C1 )}
P1 P1 1
= =
P2 1 − P1 exp{− β (C2 + δ − C1 }
= exp { β (C2 + δ - C1) }
∴Y =aX+b
Logit Model Example 1
Utility functions for auto and transit
U = ak– 0.35t1 – 0.08t2 – 0.005c
ak = mode specific variable
t1 = total travel time (minutes) Do you agree with
the relative
t2 = waiting time (minutes) magnitude of the
time parameters? Is
there double
c = cost (cents) counting/colinearity?
Logit Model Example 1
(cont)
Travel characteristics between two zones
Variable Auto Transit
Do you agree with
ak -0.46 -0.07 the relative
magnitude of the
t1 20 30 mode specific
parameters? How
t2 8 6 much effect does
cost have?
c 320 100
Utransit = -11.55
Logit Model:
A B C
A C
Baru
Choice
Choice A’
NESTED C’
COMPOSITE
A B C
Multinomial Logit Structure
Choice