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BOP menyediakan Data BOP suatu negara Data BOP dapat digunakan
informasi yang mendalam merupakan sinyal tentang untuk mengevaluasi
tentang permintaan dan potensinya sebagai kinerja negara dalam
penawaran mata uang partner bisnis bagi dunia. persaingan ekonomi
suatu negara. internasional
REKENING NERACA PEMBAYARAN
TRANSAKSI Ketika mata uang suatu negara terdepresiasi terhadap mata uang partner
BERJALAN dagang utama, ekspor negara tersebut cenderung meningkat dan impor
menurun, & ini memperbaiki neraca perdagangan.
Efek depresiasi mata uang pada neraca perdagangan suatu negara dapat
lebih kompleks daripada yang digambarkan sebelumnya.
PERSAMAAN
NERACA BCA = -BKA
PEMBAYARAN
Surplus atau defisit rekening transaksi berjalan harus
diselaraskan dengan defisit atau surplus rekening modal,
dan sebaliknya.
Mengakhiri kepemilikan luar negeri atas aset-aset domestik: penghentian arus masuk
modal luar negeri, dengan mengurangi penawaran modal yang tersedia, akan meningkatkan
tingkat bunga domestik riel. Tingkat bunga lebih tinggi akan lebih merang-sang tabungan
karena biaya peluang konsumsi meningkat seiring dengan tingkat bunga riel.
Menaikkan tingkat tabungan: mengurangi tingkat konsumsi (termasuk produk dari luar
negeri), sehingga impor produk dari luar negeri menurun.
Exchange Rate ※Thus, the floating exchange rate regime can adjust the BOP
Countries automatically
However, the effect of the change of the exchange rate will not affect
the BOP in the right direction immediately
For deficits in the BOP, the effect of currency depreciation will let the
deficits get worse in the short run, but moves back toward
equilibrium in the long run (J-curve effect discussed later)
Countries adopting this regime have desired exchange rates, but
The BOP and they allow the exchange rate to derivate from the desired level to
some extent
Exchange
Rates
They often find that it is necessary to take action to maintain their
desired exchange rate levels
Managed
Floating In addition to intervening the foreign exchange market, they usually
try to alter the exchange rate by influencing the motivations of
For example, to deal with the depreciation pressure from the deficit
in the BOP, governments may raise domestic interest rate to attract
additional capital from aboard, which creates additional demand
for the domestic currency and alleviates the depreciation pressure
(in the meanwhile, diminishes the deficit in the BOP)
Apart from the use of interest rates to intervene the
foreign exchange market, the overall level of a country’s
interest rates compared to other countries DOES have
impact on the financial account of the BOP
The BOP and Relatively low real interest rates should normally
Interest stimulate an outflow of capital seeking higher rates
elsewhere
Rates
In the case of the U.S., even with low real interest rates,
the opposite has occurred due to perceived growth
opportunities and political stability, which allows it to
finance its large fiscal deficit
However, it is beginning to appear that the favorable
inflow on the financial account is diminishing while the
current account balance is worsening
The BOP and Inflation Rates
The effect of increasing imports
Due to the comparative advantage theory in international trade, imports of goods and services
are usually cheaper and have the potential to lower a country’s inflation rate
※If the BOP declines with the increase of the import, the inflation rates may decrease in the
meantime