Sc
Teori Permainan (Game Theory) Departement of Mathematics FMIPA UNS
Jika ( ) adalah probabilitas terjadi n ( > 0) kedatangan selama interval waktu t, maka
( )
( )= ; = 0,1,2, …
!
dengan λ adalah rata-rata kedatangan per satuan waktu. Distribusi dari banyaknya kedata-
ngan selama interval waktu t yaitu Poisson dengan
Mean = ( | ) = .
( )= ; > 0
Jadi dapat disimpulkan, jika banyaknya kedatangan per satuan waktu memiliki sebaran
Poisson dengan rata-rata 10, maka waktu diantara dua kedatangan memiliki sebaran
eksponensial dengan rata-rata 1/10. Sistem antrian seperti ini dikatakan memiliki input
Poisson, dan pelanggan dikatakan datang mengikuti Proses Poisson.
Kesimpulan
“Jika waktu sekarang 08.20 dan kedatangan terakhir terjadi pada pukul 08.02, maka
probabilitas kedatangan pada pukul 08.29 hanya dipengaruhi oleh interval 08.20 – 08.20
dan tidak dipengaruhi oleh interval 08.02 – 08.29”
Soal – Soal 1
1. In each of the following cases, determine the average arrival rate per hour and the average
interarrival time in hours.
a. One arrival occurs every 10 minutes.
b. Two arrivals occur every 6 minutes.
c. Number of arrivals in a 30-minute period is 10.
d. The average interval between successive arrivals is 0.5 hour
2. In each of the following cases, determine the average service rate per hour and the average
service time in hours.
a. One service in completed every 12 minutes.
b. Two departures occur every 15 minutes.
c. Number of customers served in a 30-minute period is 5.
d. The average service time is 0.3 hour.
3. The time between arrivals at the State Revenue Office is exponential with mean value 0.05 hour.
The office opens at 08.00.
a. Write the exponential distribution that describes the interarrival time.
b. Find the probability that no customers will arrive at the office by 08.15.
Riset Operasi Probabilistik Nughthoh Arfawi Kurdhi, M.Sc
Teori Permainan (Game Theory) Departement of Mathematics FMIPA UNS
c. It is now 08.35. The last customer entered the office at 08.26. What is the probability that
the next customer will arrive before 08.38? That the next customer will not arrive by 08.40?
d. What is the average number of arriving customers between 08.10 and 08.45?
4. Ann and Jim, two employees in a fast-food restaurant, play the following game while waiting for
customers to arrive: Jim pays Ann 2 cents if the next customer does not arrive within 1 minute;
otherwise, Ann pays Jim 2 cents. Detemine Jim’s average payoff in an 8-hour period. The
interarrival time is exponential with mean 1.5 minute.
5. A customer arriving at a McBurger fast-food restaurant within 4 minutes of the immediately
preceding custemer will receive a 10% discount. If the interarrival time is between 4 and 5
minutes, the discount is 6%. If the interarrival time is longer than 5 minutes, the customer gets
2% discount. The interarrival time is exponential with mean 6 minutes.
a. Determine the probability that an arriving customer will receive the 10% discount.
b. Determine the average discount per arriving customer.
Soal – Soal 2
1. Babies are born in a sparsely populated state at the rate of one birth every 12 minutes. The time
between births follows an exponential distribution. Suppose that the clerk who enters the infor-
mation from birth certificates into the computer normally waits until at least 5 certificates have
accumulated. Find the probability that the clerk will be enterig a new batch every hour.
2. The time between arrivals at L&J restaurant is exponential with mean 5 minutes. The restaurant
opens for business at 11.00. Determine the following:
a. The probability of having 10 arrivals in the restaurant by 11.12 given that 8 customers
arrived by 11.05.
b. The probability that a new customer will arrive between 11.28 and 11.33 given that the last
customer arrived at 11.25.
3. The U of A runs two bus lines on campus: red and green. The red line serves north campus
and the green line serves south campus with a transfer station linking the two lines. Green buses
arrive randomly (according to a Poisson distribution) at the transfer station every 10 minutes.
Red buses also arrive randomly every 7 minutes. What is the probability that two buses will sto
at the station during a 5-minute interval?
Penyelesaian:
a. Perhitungan probabilitas pemesanan ulang terhadap barang pada hari ke t , ketika masih
tersedia 5 unit barang, yaitu
(3 ) 15−5 −3
5
( )=
(15−5)!
Riset Operasi Probabilistik Nughthoh Arfawi Kurdhi, M.Sc
Teori Permainan (Game Theory) Departement of Mathematics FMIPA UNS
Hari ke-t 1 2 3 4 5 6
3 6 9 12 15 18
( ) 0.0008 0.0413 0.1186 0.1048 0.0486 0.015
Terlihat bahwa probabilitas tertinggi untuk pemesanan ulang terhadap barang yaitu pada
hari ke-3.
b. Perhitungan probabilitas pemesanan ulang terhadap barang pada hari ke t , ketika barang
yang tersedia kurang dari atau sama dengan 5 unit, yaitu
≤5
( ) = 0 ( ) + 1 ( ) + 2 ( ) + 3( ) + 4( ) + 5 ( )
Hari ke-t 1 2 3 4 5 6
3 6 9 12 15 18
( ) 0.0012 0.0839 0.4126 0.7576 0.9303 0.9847
c. Menentukan rata-rata banyaknya barang yang akan dibuang pada minggu akhir atau
ekspektasi dari banyaknya unit yang tersedia pada hari ke-6, yaitu
[ | = 6] = ∑ (6)
n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(6) 0.792 0.0655 0.0509 0.0368 0.0245 0.015 0.0083 0.0042
8 9 10 11
0.0018 0.0007 0.0002 0.0001
Soal – Soal 3
1. The florist section in a grocery store stocks 18 dozen roses at the beginning of each week. On
the average, the florist sells 3 dozens a day (one dozen at a time), but the actual demand follows
a Poisson distribution. Whenever the stock level reaches 5 dozens, a new order of 18 new
dozens is placed for delivery at the beginning of the following week. Because of the nature of
the item, all roses left at the end of the week are disposed of.
a. The probability that the stock out is depleted after 3 days.
b. The average number of dozen roses left at the end of the second day.
c. The probability that at least one dosen is purchased by the end of the fourth day, given that
the last dozen was bought at the end of the third day.
d. The probability that no purchases will occur during the first day.
Riset Operasi Probabilistik Nughthoh Arfawi Kurdhi, M.Sc
Teori Permainan (Game Theory) Departement of Mathematics FMIPA UNS
e. The probability that no order will placed by the end of the week.
2. A freshman student receives a bank deposit of $100 a month from home to cover incidentals.
Withdrawal checks of $20 each occur randomly during the month and are spaced according to
an exponential distribution with a mean value of 1 week. Determine the probability that the
student will run out of incidental money before the end of the fourth week.
3. Demand for an item occurs according to a Poisson distribution with mean 3 per day. The
maximum stock level is 25 items, which occur on each Monday immediately after a new order is
received. The order size depends on the number of units left at the end of the week on Saturday
(business is closed on Sundays). Determine the following:
a. The average weekly size of the order.
b. The probability of incurring shortage when the business opens on Friday morning.
c. The probability that the weekly order size exceeds 10 units.
Untuk notasi Kendal a dan b, yaitu distribusi waktu kedatangan dan distribusi waktu layanan
dapat digunakan beberapa jenis distribusi peluang antara lain distribusi hyperexponential,
erlang-k dan exponential. Namun selain itu juga dengan menggunakan distribusi umum
waktu antar kedatangan (general independent interarrival time) dan distribusi umum waktu layanan
(general service time distribution). Berikut adalah carian untuk notasi Kendal a dan b.
- GI : general independent interarrival time
- G : general service time distribution
- Hk : k-stage hyperexponential
- Ek : erlang-k
- M : exponential
- D : deterministik